Pitching Primer: NL Postseason Preview

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-01-11 23:37:23

Welcome to the National League Postseason Pitching Preview, following the American League yesterday. Utilizing the same concepts as the regular season articles each day, we’re going to attempt to decipher first round post-season matchups for each league.

The biggest difference between this and last year’s version is that I’ve since figured out how to manipulate the calendar to show most of the relevant stats. Note that at the time of this writing, pricing is not yet available, so we won’t be able to get into potential value and home team will be depicted by the team with home field advantage in the series, though, obviously, both teams in the series will have home games, which will be taken into consideration.

We also realize that the importance of every single game in a short winner-take all series dictates that managers usually be more aggressive with bullpens, shortening the leashes on most starters in the post-season, though both starter and bullpen quality determine to what extent. We must therefore discuss opportunity and potential managerial tendency as well as performance here.

Lastly, not all rotations have been finalized at the time of this writing. There will be an attempt to cover all potential or likely options even if it’s just a sentence or two, but we’re not exactly sure which pitchers will be pitching in which order or park yet, though some obvious assumptions can be made.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are the class of the National League, coming out of the gate strong and pulverizing their way to the best record in the league by eight games. Perhaps pulverized is the wrong idea. The Cubs did it with very good pitching, a great defense and a disciplined offense. Right now, we’re only interested in the first two of those things (pitching and defense).

They also added Aroldis Chapman to close it all out, though other members added to the bullpen at the trade deadline haven’t fared so well from a peripherals standpoint. They’ll also have Jason Hammel to pitch long relief if anything should go wrong.

This is perhaps the deepest rotation in the majors with two Cy Young candidates this season, neither even named Arrieta. Unlike last season, Joe Maddon is likely to have confidence in all of his starters this year, allowing them to go deep into playoff games if they merit it. However, he’s also shown that he won’t hesitate to remove a starter early if need be due to performance or an irresistible offensive opportunity arising that demand a pinch-hitter.

The Giants struggled on the road this season and hit for very little power in a big home park, but they often presented a hurdle for daily fantasy players in that they struck out less than any other National League team (17.7%). However, as Mr. Syndergaard proved last night, any offense is vulnerable to a dominant arm. I’m not sure we can say the Cubs have an arm like that though. The interesting thing here is that the Cubs defense might be the worst matchup in baseball for an offense that makes so much contact.

Park factors may provide an interesting dynamic in this series since both are two of the more weather dependent ones in baseball. While Wrigley has been considered hitter friendly forever (occasionally depending on the wind though), San Francisco has been one of the pitcher friendliest parks in existence since it opened. ESPN park factors, however, saw AT&T Park as the most positive run environment in the NLDS this year (1.014), though still the most power suppressing one in the majors (0.704). Wrigley, on the other hand, was the sixth most pitcher friendly run environment in the majors (0.874). There are reasons we use multi-year park factors though.

Jon Lester gets the opening game nod and while it might be difficult for Maddon to make a wrong choice, getting the lefty in their twice against the Giants at Wrigley might be the best move here. San Francisco’s strikeout rate rises to 18.5% both on the road and vs LHP with just a 28.2% hard hit rate. While Lester’s estimators are calling this his worst season since 2013, his ERA is in line with 2014 and Cy Young voters should really be voting for this Cubs defense. His strikeout rate is right around a quarter of batters (where it’s been the last two years) with a slightly elevated walk rate, but a hard contact rate right around his career rate too (26.8%). The lowest defensively allowed BABIP in over 35 years (since the 1981 strike) just seemed to turn everything into outs (.255). The good news is that they’re not going away. While it would be difficult to buy into his 84.9 LOB%, their might be some hidden upside to a LHP facing the Giants on the road.

Kyle Hendricks had a double digit SwStr% and was the most contact dominant pitcher in the majors. He was the only pitcher to generate more weak contact (25%) than hard (25.8%). While that certainly wasn’t the case in September (13.2 Hard-Soft%) and he hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 47% in a month since July, his strikeout rate did rise to 25.8% over the last month of the season. If Hendricks can get back to contact dominance and is priced reasonably, he could be interesting here, especially if he retains the strikeout spike. However, he was getting closer and closer to being over-priced as the year went on. How much can a player fully trust a high priced, contact dependent pitcher against a contact team if the October wind is blowing the wrong way in Wrigley?

Jake Arrieta continues to thrive through the first part of the year due to contact dominance. He had a 1.74 ERA with estimators around three and an 18.7 K-BB%, 56.5 GB% and -0.4 Hard-Soft% through his first 15 starts. Since June 22nd, he has a 4.31 ERA, in line with estimators and just a 10.2 K-BB% with a 48.8 GB% and 5.1 Hard-Soft%. The batted ball stuff is still very solid, but the strikeout rate has been average and the walk rate out of control. The Giants are a very patient offense vs RHP and even though he’ll be pitching in San Francisco, I might have a hard time paying up for something closer to Baltimore Arrieta than his first couple of years with the Cubs.

Jon Lackey had the highest strikeout rate of his career (24.1%), but only 21.5% in a second half in which he struggled with some ailments late in the season. He’ll have less upside against this offense as a RHP in San Francisco, but should be okay in a run prevention sense. He’ll also have the shortest leash in the rotation, especially if the Cubs are trailing at this point.

While Lester might have more upside in this spot than many players might realize, the rest of this rotation has declined a bit down the stretch. It will be interesting with the best defense in the majors facing the lowest strikeout rate in the National League. In a daily fantasy sense, it might be more difficult to pay up for some of these RHPs.

San Francisco Giants

It’s an even numbered year. I don’t know why they’re even bothering. Just give the Giants the trophy now. I actually heard an MLB Network anchor praise Bruce Bochy for holding this team together through the worst record in baseball for the second half of the season and having the foresight to have his eighth place hitter homer off of one of the best relievers in the game last night. I consider Bochy one of the better managers in the game, possibly two of the top three matching wits in this series, but that may have been a bit of a stretch.

While post-season baseball has become an ideal time for savvy managers to start “bullpening”, the Giants are built a quite different way this season. They have a rotation of workhorses with the front three striking out enough batters, while averaging well more than six innings per start over the last two years. Couple that with a bullpen that wasn’t exactly terrible (3.31 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.3 fWAR in September – 3.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.6 fWAR second half), but one the manager clearly trusts less than his starters and we might have the most trustable starters from a daily fantasy point in that we can at least expect them to get an opportunity to work through most of their troubles without a dominant bullpen or converted starter to relieve for this series in waiting.

Additionally, the Cubs might be an over-rated offense in this series. They take a ton of walks and have above average power against LHP, but strike out at an average rate and have just average power against RHP, while they’ll be playing half of the series (and facing the one lefty) in the most power suppressing environment in baseball.

Johnny Cueto missed bats a bit more than league average, but ran sub-.240 BABIPs and 80+% strand rates for a couple of years in Cincinnati, dropping his ERA well below his estimators. In his first year in San Francisco, it’s been a 3.2 HR/FB at home that’s helped him do so, unsustainable even in the least favorable park for power in the majors. Further, he’s unlikely to pitch at home in this series, unless the Giants become desperate and either bring him back in Game Four or use him in relief (not out of the question). He is a good pitcher, but often seems accurately priced for daily fantasy contests because a lot of his value often comes from batted ball results. This lessens his value significantly on the road (14.3 HR/FB). If he is pitching well though, I could see Bochy allowing him to go nine.

Jeff Samardzija has some difficulties in his first year in San Francisco, but finished the season strong, pitching into the seventh inning in five of his last seven starts with a 2.49 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 3.09 xFIP and 20.3 K-BB%. He’s certainly had success and is familiar with pitching in Wrigley. He might be the sleeper here with a price tag that dropped significantly mid-season and may not have yet caught up to his resurgent finish. He may not get as much room to operate as the top two in this rotation, but I see no reason other than a necessary pinch-hitting situation that Bochy would look to pull him if pitching well.

You might be able to roster Madison Bumgarner in every game of this series and still come out a winner. That’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it would be an under-statement to say that Bruce Bochy likes to lean on him in the post-season. He’s liable to pitch in any game, even if he’s not starting. I could give you all of the most wonderful stats in the world, but this tweet last night says it all about playoff time Bumganer. More starts with seven shutout innings than any pitcher in post-season history. Other pitchers may have more upside and be less chalky, but there’s probably no pitcher players will feel more comfortable with this time of year.

It might be difficult to consider Matt Moore in a daily fantasy sense here. While AT&T park might help keep the Chicago power against LHP in check, the Cubs strikeout less and walk slightly more against LHP and he had an 11.1 BB% since the trade. If you’re looking for optimism, he did have a 20.7 K-BB% over his last five starts, twice striking out 11 batters, but faced a terrible offense vs LHP in three of those starts and pitched three times at home in that stretch. His Game Four leash is unlikely to be long if he struggles to throw strikes.

The Cubs may have the best record in the majors, but they got there with pitching, defense and patience. They can be pitched to and players need not avoid San Francisco pitchers in this series if cost dictates they might be the correct play.

Los Angeles Dodgers

At full health, the Dodgers might have the top two rotation pieces in the NLDS (although you might be able to say that about Kershaw and a mop). The bullpen had just a 3.89 ERA and 3.59 FIP in the second half, but also had the third highest strikeout rate (26.6%). To be honest, I have no idea if they’ll deploy a few starting arms in the pen in this series. Only Kenta Maeda made it through the season entirely healthy and I’m not even sure who’s available beyond the announced rotation. Kazmir, McCarthy, Anderson, Wood? Whoever it may be, they’re not pulling Kershaw, though other arms in this rotation were frequently limited for one reason or another.

The Nationals were banged up down the stretch and while Daniel Murphy should be back in the lineup, will he or Harper be at full strength? They’ll also be missing one of their top RHBs in Wilson Ramos. Even with all of their key bats, this was still just an average offense vs RHP. As you can see, most of their peripherals were the same either way, but their HR/FB jumps 4.3 points vs LHP.

As far as park factors go, Washington has been considered a fairly neutral and slightly power suppressive environment the last several years. ESPN has it at 0.956 for runs and 1.023 for power this season. Dodger Stadium had been playing as a negative run environment, but fairly favorable to LH power. This year, ESPN had it as the second most negative run environment (0.813) just above Minute Maid Park (again, why we like to use multi-year factors) and suppressive of power (0.914). In other words, don’t expect the parks to greatly influence things much one way or the other.

Clayton Kershaw is still probably the best pitcher in the universe. There was this narrative that he wasn’t a big game pitcher, but he probably answered that question sufficiently last season, even though his team exited in the first round. He walked 11 batters all season. While there’s probably no way he can stop Daniel Murphy from clocking post-season HRs, he’s pretty much matchup proof. There are several amazing arms on the slate Friday, but Kershaw always tops the list.

Rich Hill has been dominant in a Dodger uniform. He’s thrown 34.1 innings, striking out 39 of 128 batters, allowing just seven runs since the trade. The problem is that he threw just 34.1 innings over two months and more than six innings in just one of six starts. While the Nationals do hit LHP well (16.4 HR/FB), they are missing Ramos and RHBs had just a .244 wOBA against Hill this season. Reasonably priced, he could be a DFS weapon, but the cost has become very high late in the season, even without him going deep into games. Will he be allowed to in the post-season, might be a question currently without a definitive answer.

Kenta Maeda had an impressive 18.0 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators around three and a half in his first major league season. He may be in a better spot than the LHPs too, facing a Washington offense that has struggled at times against RHP and may not have their top LH bats at full strength. The issue is that he went five innings or less in 14 of his last 26 starts and only seven innings once. He could still remain in play if priced reasonably below $10K.

Juilo Urias or Jose de Leon are both in consideration for starting a potential fourth game and there are a couple of thoughts on that. While both were dominant through the minors, Urias has brought some of that with him to the majors (25 K%), while de Leon has just an 18.8 K%, but a slightly higher 10.6 SwStr%. Neither was allowed to go more than six innings in any of their major league starts and even that many very rarely. One thought is that they might piggy back each other, though Washington does not platoon nearly enough for that to seem effective other than for limiting innings. Another is that they may just push up Kershaw on short rest. Then again, it may even be another pitcher completely. More clarification will be needed on this situation for sure.

You would think the possibility of facing three LHPs in a five game series might favor the Nationals, but the loss of Ramos could play big here and we’re talking about the best pitcher in baseball and one of the highest upside lefties in the league when he’s been healthy this year. The concerns with this Dodger rotation are all health and workload related beyond Kershaw.

Washington Nationals

Dusty Baker is approaching this NLDS with more secrecy than CIA. He doesn’t want you to know his roster, who’s pitching game two, what his lineup is or even if the Nationals have decided to show up against Kershaw. The one interesting tidbit of information we have at this time is that 22 year-old Pedro Severino will be catching Max Scherzer in Game One. Can he put down the strikeout sign? Okay, then we’re good.

The Washington bullpen was very average in the second half of the season with a 3.63 ERA and 3.82 FIP, although there are certainly some capable arms, but perhaps nobody the Dodgers should fear. Dusty barely has enough healthy arms to fill out a rotation, never mind leftover arms for the bullpen. While he’s old-school and will let Scherzer do his thing, a smart manager would not allow that to extend to the lesser pitchers behind him, but who knows with Dusty?

Max Scherzer may be the one pitcher on the Friday slate that can match Kershaw’s upside and potentially throw a complete game as well. The Dodgers might not be the best matchup for a HR prone righty with a 15.6 HR/FB vs RHP, but Scherzer allowed just 10 of 31 HRs in the second half while striking out 10 or more in 13 of his last 27 starts. Scherzer is matchup proof with no concerns about workload.

Gio Gonzalez should probably get the Game Two nod because the Dodgers were one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP with a 22.4 K% and 9.6 HR/FB. That does not mean he should get a long leash. Gio failed to go more than five innings in four of his last five starts. While the Nationals had things wrapped up early and there was no reason to push him, he allowed a total of 18 runs in those four starts. His 19 HRs allowed is a new career high and more than his totals from the previous two seasons combined. There is some upside in a favorable matchup here though.

Tanner Roark was a batted ball dependent pitcher who often cost more than the performance was worth. Early on, an aberrant 15 K performance kept his strikeout rate afloat, but he failed to strikeout more than eight the rest of the season and even that many only once. He did completely dominate contact in the first half of the season (52.3 GB%, -4.5 Hard-Soft%), but had just an 8.7 K-BB% with a 44.2 GB% and 8.4 Hard-Soft% in the second half. This is probably not a pitcher to pay up for in a difficult matchup.

A.J. Cole struck out 23.2% of batters with just a 25.7% hard contact rate in his eight starts, but a 54.9% fly ball rate even with an 11.3 HR/FB caused some issues with seven HRs allowed. Can the Nationals afford to take that kind of chance against a powerful LH lineup? The most likely scenarios here are either Cole on a short leash or Scherzer back on three days rest in a potential elimination game, although Joe Ross returned to make a few short starts towards the end of September too. He struggles greatly against LHBs though (.354 wOBA career).

Scherzer is playable in any situation and Gonzalez might have a matchup edge, but is still high risk. Beyond that, this is probably not a rotation DFS players should have much interest in against a powerful LH lineup.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

The obvious reason for the Cub pitchers flying so low below their estimators is their tremendous defense.

The Dodger pitcher might have come into line over a full season workload.

The Giants pitchers were able to suppress HRs in a great park.

Tanner Roark had a 79.5% strand rate, while Gio Gonzalez had a career low 67.6 LOB%.

BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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