Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 12
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Last week, we saw a Redskins QB-RB-WR-TE stack take down the Millionaire Maker, which is a reminder that getting creative with your stacks can pay off. These type of stacks can be especially useful on short slates, when one offense may outperform the rest by a wide margin.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Ben Roethlisberger + RB Le’Veon Bell + WR Antonio Brown + TE Ladarius Green (+ Steelers DST on DraftKings) — Thanksgiving Slate
On short slates, sometimes it’s more about having exposure to one particular offense than trying to pick out the perfect plays from each game in a balanced lineup. Case in point: last Thanksgiving, Matthew Stafford scored 37.8 DraftKings points, Calvin Johnson scored 35.3, and only two other plays scored more than 20. What’s more, Golden Tate was the WR2 that day, and Theo Riddick was the RB2. I believe the Cowboys-Redskins total is a bit inflated and am not going to overthink it when it comes to stacking the Steelers offense.
While the absence of Andrew Luck (concussion that he played through despite a supposed protocol) may move some people off both offenses in this game, the likely effect will be more tie with the ball for the Steelers, who aren’t known to let up even in blowouts. The Steelers also lead the league in two-point conversion attempts, further increasing their upside. The Colts rank 31st in defensive DVOA and play in a dome, which should be more than enough to offset Ben Roethlisberger’s road woes. Le’Veon Bell averages 25.9 touches per game (first in the league), while Antonio Brown averages 11.4 targets per game (second).
Perhaps my favorite contrarian play is Ladarius Green. Green has played only 20 snaps over two games since returning from injury, but has been targeted six times in those 20 snaps, good for a ridiculous 30% target per snap rate. This week, the Steelers indicated Green will be a full go and no longer restricted. The Colts are ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and dead last in DVOA vs. TEs. By using Green at TE (or flex on DraftKings), it still leaves you enough room to use this stack and still get Ezekiel Elliott in if you get creative.
The Steelers defense is my top play at the position going against Scott Tolzien, who has thrown one TD to five interceptions in 91 career attempts. He’s also been sacked four times and fumbled. Last Thanksgiving, we saw a situation where the top DST scored over 20 and no other DST scored more than 10, and the Steelers are the most likely defense to create a gap this week. We saw them do the same last week with a 22-point performance against the Browns.
RB Jay Ajayi + DST Dolphins
Two weeks ago it was a Johnson, and last week it was a Blount, so it’s only fitting a back known as Jay-Train will be next in line to run through the 49ers defense. Over the last three weeks, the 49ers have allowed 4.98 yards per carry to RBs and five total TDs. Somewhat quietly, Ajayi leads all RBs in yards per carry average (5.6) by nearly a half-yard. And over the last six weeks, only four RBs have touched the ball more than Ajayi’s 24.2 times per game. Ajayi also has the benefit of being a 7.5-point home favorite. Of course, being a home favorite is the ideal situation for a fantasy defense as well. The Dolphins D/ST quietly ranks ninth in points per game on DraftKings (7.9) and will face a 49ers team that has to travel all the way across the country.
QB Eli Manning + RB Rashad Jennings + WR Sterling Shepard
After stumbling out of the gate, Manning has averaged 264.6 passing yards and 2.4 TDs over his last five games. Many DFS players will stack Eli with Odell Beckham, and while that’s obviously an option, it’s a much more costly one. Shepard comes at a big discount from Beckham and has actually received more red zone targets (5) than Beckham (4) over the last five games. Shepard has scored a TD in each of his last three games and averages 8.0 targets over that span. Shepard is a good bet to score again, as the Browns have given up a league-leading 25 TDs through the air. The Browns have also been vulnerable in the slot, coughing up 8-133-1 to Kendall Wright, 7-120-1 to Jarvis Landry, 7-114-1 to Jordan Matthews, 4-93-1 to Quincy Enunwa, and 6-56-1 to Cole Beasley this season.
Jennings, meanwhile, is starting to come alive — just like he did at the end of the season last year. In his last two games, he’s averaging 4.78 yards per carry. He’s back to seeing workhorse volume, with touch totals of 18 and 26 in his two most recent games, including six targets in each game. The Browns are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league (143.9) and only one team has given up more rushing TDs than Cleveland (13).
QB Derek Carr + WR Amari Cooper + WR Michael Crabtree
Last week, 227 of Derek Carr’s 299 passing yards, or 76.9%, went to RBs. However, coming into last Monday’s game in (soon to be walled off?) Mexico, 57.4% of Carr’s yards had gone only to Carr and Cooper, who have also caught 45% of Carr’s TDs this season. The pendulum tends to swing back the other way in situations like these, and I’m expecting the Raiders to attack Carolina’s rookie corners. Cooper has an especially good matchup, as he tends to shred defenses that play a lot of zone like the Panthers.
Carolina’s defense as a whole takes a hit without star linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion) in the lineup. The Panthers are ranked 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. The Raiders are implied to score 26 points, one of the highest totals on the slate.
K Matt Bryant + D/ST Atlanta Falcons
Sometimes, it can be good to target defenses in games with high totals, because defenses thrive off mistakes, i.e. sacks and interceptions, that opponents make in the passing game. The Falcons are implied to score over 27 points, which means the Cardinals will likely have to air it out at some point. The Falcons have benefitted from this type of game script in the past, scoring 11+ DraftKings points in two of their last three home games. Over the last four weeks, the Cardinals have allowed 15, 19,10, and 20 DraftKings points to opposing D/STs, and have allowed double-digit points to D/STs in six of their last eight games.
With half of the league’s indoor teams playing on Thanksgiving, there are only three games that will be played indoors on the main slate, and the Falcons have the highest implied total of the three, making Matt Bryant arguably the slate’s top kicking option. At $5,100, Bryant also counts as paying up to be contrarian, and may not be very highly owned.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Rishard Matthews’ Snap Increase
Over the last eight weeks, Matthews is averaging a very solid 4.4-63.4-0.75 line — on only 6.0 targets per game. But for the first four of those weeks, he couldn’t be trusted much in fantasy, as he was averaging only 50% of the snaps. Over the last four weeks, however, Matthews has played 87% of the snaps. His average stat line over those last four games has shot up to 5.5-71.5-1.0 on 8.0 targets per game. The Titans have been keeping Matthews on the field, and moving him all around his formation. Still at a reasonable price across the industry, Matthews is in another great spot to return value against a Bears defense that is ranked 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Jay Cutler’s shoulder injury
Last week, I lamented the fact that we as an industry poured a greater investment into Jay Cutler than the defense facing smokin’ Jay. While we sadly can’t target Cutler, a consolation prize of Matt Barkley isn’t too bad. In his career, Barkley is 36-65 (55.4%) for 381 yards (5.9 YPA), with no TDs, six interceptions, four sacks taken, and three fumbles. With the news, the Vegas spread has already shot up 3.5 points in favor of Tennessee since opening as a pick ‘em.