The Lineup Lowdown: NFL Week 12 Edition
I wasn’t able to nail anyone down from the pro side to take part in the Lineup Lowdown this week so I thought I’d utilize our ResultsDB Tool to look at ownership for three of the bigger double ups and then take a quick look at my cash game line up. Hopefully next week, we’ll be able to get back to our usual article.
For the purposes of this article, you can access the contests utilizing the following links:
$250 Giant Double Up
$25 Massive Double Up
$5 Massive Double Up
Quarterback
Player Name-$250 Ownership-$25 Ownership-$5 Ownership
Russell Wilson 53.60-67.61-52.65
Jacoby Brissett 13.96-10.06-13.59
Tom Brady 6.76-3.51-7.18
Matt Ryan 6.76-3.12-5.25
Cam Newton 4.04-1.79-1.97
Marcus Mariota 3.60-2.88-5.48
Paxton Lynch 2.25-1.13-1.69
Jared Goff 1.80-.89-2.51
Matt Moore .90-3.93-2.58
Carson Wentz 0-.51-1.32
The obvious chalk across all three contests was Russell Wilson who provided a safe floor and a positive match up. He came in at over 50% ownership in all three contests. A distant second was Jacoby Brissett as DFS cash game players looked to take advantage of a porous Tennessee secondary. He was the only other QB that topped 10% ownership. Brady was the third-highest owned QB, probably more a reflection of his price than anything and a small percentage of people took flyers on cheap options Paxton Lynch and Matt Moore – needless to say, that was a mistake this week.
Running Back
Player Name-$250 Ownership-$25 Ownership-$5 Ownership
Tevin Coleman 51.80-57.89-55.34
Todd Gurley 36.49-47.91-39.56
Kareem Hunt 36.04-21.03-24.58
Carlos Hyde 34.68-44.97-34.64
Devontae Booker 23.87-24.47-27.32
Joe Mixon 18.02-23.16-15.32
J.D. McKissic 13.96-11.25-12.75
Alvin Kamara 11.26-6.85-9.83
Dion Lewis 6.76-6.10-9.81
Duke Johnson 6.76-6.18-8.85
Mark Ingram 6.31-6.72-6.56
DeMarco Murray 5.86-2.30-4.26
Frank Gore 1.80-5.71-2.00
Christian McCaffrey 1.35-2.71-3.33
Leonard Fournette 2.25-1.49-2.20
We had another obvious chalk option in Tevin Coleman, who with Devonta Freeman on the sidelines was in line for a big workload in a game with a high total against a suspect Tampa Bay defense. He was above 50% ownership in all three contests. There were four other RB’s who topped 20% in all three contests – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Carlos Hyde, and Devontae Booker. Hunt and Booker (who was expected to have a significant role in the Broncos offense against a bad Raiders defense) disappointed and it looks as if it’s time to jump off the Kareem Hunt bandwagon. Hyde didn’t have a great game but put up enough volume in the passing game to be a decent play while Gurley was his normal consistent self (but also didn’t put up a difference-making result). A few players right below those five were difference makers as Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara put up big games and were reasonably owned (especially Mixon who was above 15 percent in all contests). J.D. McKissic seemed like a bit of a reach for cash games but he was among that second tier of highly-owned cash game plays at the position.
Wide Receiver
Player Name-$250 Ownership-$25 Ownership-$5 Ownership
Cooper Kupp 53.60-59.28-55.09
Corey Davis 37.84-46.40-41.63
Julio Jones 33.33-43.33-37.18
Doug Baldwin 19.37-11.06-17.05
Brandin Cooks 16.22-17.34-19.05
T.Y. Hilton 15.32-7.00-10.46
Corey Coleman 14.41-7.05-9.62
Kenny Stills 14.41-11.98-14.59
Dede Westbrook 13.51-8.60-13.33
Alshon Jeffery 13.51-7.61-10.39
Sammy Watkins 13.51-27.98-17.66
Larry Fitzgerald 12.16-10.54-7.64
Mohamed Sanu 10.81-4.01-6.91
Michael Thomas 9.01-10.47-9.75
Eric Decker 6.31-15.04-6.67
Demaryius Thomas 6.31-9.26-6.50
Two teams were popular targets for cash games – the Rams and Falcons, and it was Rams slot WR Cooper Kupp in a plus matchup against a decimated Saints secondary that was the chalk option at WR. He didn’t disappoint topping the 100 yard barrier at 50% or higher ownership in all three contests. His team mate, Sammy Watkins, an inherently riskier option given his performances this season was also slotted into the top ten in ownership and while it’s not a play I would personally make, it was understandable given the Saints injury issues and Robert Woods being out with an injury. Corey Davis was the second highest owned player – I liked him for GPP’s but felt that was much too risky a play for cash. I think Rishard Matthews being out pushed people onto him more than they should have. Simply put, the key to cashing today though was to roster Julio Jones. I’ll go over the reasons why I felt he was a cash game lock in my lineup review but suffice it to say I think 50-60% of the people playing in these double ups missed the boat on this one. More than any other position, there were some risky volatile plays as popular choices in cash games including the likes of T.Y. Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald (with Blaine Gabbert throwing him the ball), Eric Decker (have you watched him this year?), and Corey Coleman (have you watched Deshone Kizer this year?) being utilized.
Tight End
Player Name-$250 Ownership-$25 Ownership-$5 Ownership
Jack Doyle 39.19-54.90-42.57
Delanie Walker 21.62-22.08-22.55
Tyler Kroft 15.77-9.81-14.51
Not much to discuss at the TE position as there were three choices that comprised the majority of the ownership (75-90% across the three contests). Doyle was the highest of the group – an obvious safe volume play in what was expected to be a high scoring contest against the Titans. The TE on the other side, Walker, was the second highest owned and the flowchart (any TE playing the Browns) TE Tyler Kroft was the third highest owned as the cheapest of the group. A late TD salvaged Krofts value while Doyle and Walker put up very good games and made it difficult for the small percentage that faded them to gain any edge from their leverage play.
Defenses
Player Name-$250 Ownership-$25 Ownership-$5 Ownership
Eagles 24.77-27.55-26.32
Jaguars 19.82-16.02-20.19
Falcons 19.82-21.13-19.71
Bengals 6.76-9.73-7.62
Patriots 6.31-3.39-5.83
Panthers 5.86-7.31-5.32
Cardinals 4.95-6.09-3.04
Jets 3.15-3.37-2.35
Three defenses, the Eagles, Jaguars, and Falcons stood out as the top options and the Falcons were the only ones of those three to put up a dud (although the Jaguars were certainly not impressive they did manage a TD at the end to save their owners).
My Cash Lineup
As I’ve said before in this space, I’m typically a GPP player but I routinely enter one cash lineup in single entry double ups. I also make it a habit to enter this lineup into at least one or two GPP’s and today was a good example of why you should do so as well as the lineup would take 83rd in the $50K Fair Catch Single Entry GPP and 4x the buy-in ($50 prize for $12 entry). Here’s a look at one of the double ups I entered it in and the GPP, my lineup, and a quick analysis of how I came to this lineup.
$10 Giant Double Up
$50 Fair Catch
QB – Russell Wilson. There’s probably not a safe option for NFL cash games right now given how much he is running the ball and how much of the offense goes through him. He’s essentially Aaron Rodgers with more rushing upside. Throw in a great match up against the 49ers and this was an easy play for me. I had no interest in the bargain basement option Paxton Lynch as he just isn’t that good. Sometimes you get what you pay for.
RB – Devontae Booker and Tevin Coleman. I didn’t love Booker but his price and expected workload (and ownership) made him hard to fade in cash games. Coleman was more expensive and there was an argument to be made to pay up to the likes of Hunt or Gurley, but I didn’t trust Hunt and thought Coleman’s matchup was much better than Gurley’s.
WR – Doug Baldwin, Julio Jones, and Cooper Kupp. In hindsight, Baldwin was a mistake given how volatile he has been this season but I loved his match up out of the slot against the 49ers and wanted the correlation with Russ. Cooper Kupp, as mentioned above, was a very safe play given his matchup and role against the Saints. The one play that was easiest for me though was Julio Jones. An elite WR facing one of the worst secondaries in football (one that he has also historically owned) with a very safe floor (he’d had 5 receptions or more in five of his last six games and had topped 70 yards or more in five of six as well). He was due for TD regression and was priced at one of the lowest prices he’d ever seen. Not sure what the people that faded him in cash were thinking (again it’s an argument one can understand in GPP’s) but it was very hard to cash in cash games (and GPP’s for that matter) without him in your lineup today.
TE – Jack Doyle – volume, volume, volume. Safe and cheap. Good matchup. Plug and play. Delanie was an option too but he’s been banged up of late so I trusted Doyle just a bit more.
FLEX – Joe Mixon – many were scared off by the Browns rushing defense but Mixon’s too talented and gets too big a workload in a game with a positive game script. Outside of Russ and Julio this was the other must play for me.
DST – Jaguars – the highest scoring fantasy defense against Blaine Gabbert. Enough said.