Week 2: In Which I Write The Best Article
I like to win.
No, wait. Scratch that.
I do like to win, but that’s not strong enough. I should say this instead:
I want to be the best – the absolute best – at anything I do. I try to work harder than anyone else, at anything I do. I try to put in more time, more study, more effort. I always assume my competition is striving to improve as well, so I strive to improve that much more (and that much more quickly).
I study my opponents; I aim to identify their strengths and learn from these and use these to help me improve; I attempt to identify my opponents’ weaknesses and figure out how I can use these weaknesses to my advantage.
This mindset helps me grow and improve each day in my fiction writing.
This mindset helps me grow and improve each day in my DFS play.
But “fiction writing” and “DFS play” are not the only things I do. If I “want to be the absolute best at anything I do,” I must also acknowledge that one of the “things I do” is write daily fantasy sports articles. I want to be the best at this as well. I want to provide more quality knowledge and information than anyone else is providing. I want to be the DFS writer people most look forward to reading each week. I want to be the DFS writer who does more to help you win money each week than anyone else.
Week 1 was painful for me. Not in DFS play; DFS play went just fine in Week 1. But Week 1 was painful in that I realized I may be slipping backward in terms of “being the best DFS writer.”
I imagine I’m not the only writer on this site (or others) who has the goal of being the best. I bet there are other DFS writers who want to do more to help you win money than anyone else is doing; I bet there are other DFS writers who want to create your “weekly destination” – who want to write the article each week you are most excited about reading.
In Week 1, I noticed that some other articles on this site seemed to get a lot more love and attention than mine received; heck, I noticed that my “feature article” for Week 1 was not even “featured” on the site for more than a day.
Part of this was probably simply “part of the plan” – the plan to make sure all writers on this site were getting a fair shake, and were being given an equal opportunity for their article to be noticed. Makes sense. After all, I was nobody to any of you when I started writing last year; I was just “a guy writing a new, weekly NFL piece on RotoGrinders.” If I had never been given a chance for my article to be featured, I would never have been able to capture the readership I have captured.
So, yes. Things need to be fair across the board. My article needs to be featured on the front page of RG for a day or so, then it needs to move aside to make room for other articles. That’s fair.
But that’s not my goal.
My goal is to write an article each week that is so good, it has to stay on the front page. My goal is to provide such valuable information, it has to be featured. My goal is to write something that helps you so much, RotoGrinders has no choice but the keep the article on the front page of the site until games begin that weekend.
And you know what? This is great news for you. Maybe I’ll reach my goal some weeks – writing the article that helps you that week more than any other. Maybe my article will be featured through the start of games on Sunday, and reader response will be overwhelmingly positive, and you will win lots of money as a result of my thoughts.
Maybe there will be other weeks, however, in which – despite my best efforts – other articles by other writers are more popular than mine, and are more valuable than mine, and are featured more heavily than mine. Hopefully, this intro – in which I am being entirely honest with you regarding my goals for my RotoGrinders articles – will act as something of a “call to arms” for other RG writers, challenging them to have the same goal I have, and challenging them to enter each week with the goal of creating the single most valuable article on this site.
If I wanted, I could even pull a Kendrick Lamar on “Control” right here, and directly call out Notorious and GiantBallofOil and LeoTPP and Adam Levitan and EMac and anyone else who is creating weekly NFL content for RotoGrinders. I could tell those guys: My goal is to write the most valuable article on RotoGrinders each week. My goal is to raise the bar for you guys – and I want to challenge you guys to do the same for me: raise the bar, and force me to work that much harder as I aim to create the week’s most valuable content.
Furthermore, I could say this, to those same guys: RotoGrinders is not the only site that offers DFS content these days. RotoGrinders has long been seen as the best destination on the Web for such content, but there are about 30 other sites right now (including ESPN and the mighty dollar behind it) that are trying to wrestle RotoGrinders off the top of the mountain. My goal is not just to write the best DFS article on this site each week, but to also write the most valuable DFS content on the Web. Each and every week. And I challenge you guys to make this your goal as well. In this way, we will all compete against one another in an effort to write the best DFS content on this site…and in this same way, we will all compete alongside one another in an effort to ensure RotoGrinders is home to the best DFS content on the Web.
Last week, my intro aimed to capitalize more on “entertainment” and “an engaging story that tied into my picks” than on “information that would go a long way toward helping readers.”
Screw that!
This week, I want to look at five specific, strategy-related items that will help you throughout this season. I’m writing these, in advance of my picks, to help this be “the most valuable article you read this week” (well…“the most valuable article you read this week” if you are not an Incentives member; if you are an Incentives member, I don’t think anything can top the NFL Edge that comes out each Wednesday). Apply these five items to your own DFS play, profit, repeat.
1) Take advantage of Thursday slates:
Most people who play the Thursday-Monday NFL DFS slate do so because they want to have a rooting interest in the Thursday night game. As such, there is always anywhere from 5% to 10% of the field that has a lot more Thursday night ownership than they should. On weeks when the Thursday night game is expected to be high-scoring, your best bet is often to stay out of those Thursday-Monday contests entirely, as that “high Thursday ownership” could ultimately end up putting you pretty far behind to start the week. But on weeks when the Thursday game is expected to be low-scoring, you should strongly consider entering Thursday-Monday contests…and fading the Thursday night game entirely.
This strategy is especially viable on DraftKings, where late swap enables you to still wait until Sunday to set your entire team. If the Thursday game ends up being higher-scoring than expected (and that high Thursday ownership has an edge on the field as a result), you can take a few more risks with your Sunday-Monday lineup in an effort to make up for what you missed. But if the Thursday game is instead as low-scoring as you expected it to be, you will have a nice little edge to start the week, and will be able to increase your chances of cashing as a result.
Pay close attention to the scoring expectations for the Thursday night game each week; if the game is projected to be low-scoring, enter more Thursday contests than normal, fade players from that game, and enjoy the built-in edge the high Thursday ownership provides.
2) “Be contrarian” with the smartest plays:
Oftentimes, the best way to “be contrarian” in NFL is by simply taking the smartest plays. Because we have a full week to prepare for each slate of games, many of us begin to overthink things to a ludicrous extent. We start digging so deep into the “high-upside players no one is thinking of,” we end up overlooking the obvious plays that are right there for the taking. Last week, guys like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Forte, and Jamaal Charles all had very low ownership. Honestly, Carlos Hyde was a decently “obvious” play as well, and most people were content to completely overlook him.
While game theory certainly comes into play (that is to say: While you certainly want to find a couple areas on your roster where you can be contrarian), you should also aim to identify the strongest plays at each position. There are a lot of times when taking the “strongest play” will not only provide you with the highest possible ceiling for points, but will also do so while putting you in an ownership boat alongside very few others.
3) “What do prices actually mean?”
As DFS players, most of us become so conditioned toward being “value-focused,” we end up overlooking the most expensive options at each position without giving them much thought at all.
A great example of this was Aaron Rodgers last week. We all knew he was, easily, the #1-ranked quarterback on the week. We all knew he had the highest floor/ceiling combo of any QB in play. And yet, as the week progressed, I began to realize that very few people were talking about rostering him.
On FanDuel, this made sense. Rodgers was priced high enough (and Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford were priced low enough) that fading Rodgers was a perfectly viable strategy.
On DraftKings, however, Rodgers was priced at $8600. Because he was still the highest-priced quarterback, and because we are all so conditioned toward “finding the best value,” he was easy to overlook. But during the latter half of the week, I realized: Last year, the “high-end QBs” on DraftKings were priced in the high-$9k to low-$10k range, while the “value QBs” were priced about the same as they were in Week 1 (Matt Ryan at $7500, Sam Bradford at $6900, etc.). This meant that the gap between the “clear #1 QB” and the “great value options” was much smaller than normal. This also meant that there was really no reason to stay away from the “high floor/ceiling combo” of Rodgers at only $8600. Last year, after all, Rodgers against the Bears at $8600 would have been considered a “must play” – a price that would have fetched a good 30% to 40% of ownership. The “value QBs” were still priced the same in Week 1 as they were in 2014, but the “elite QBs” were priced much lower. This meant there was no reason to dig around for value, as we could grab an elite option at a massive discount.
We can also benefit from pricing inefficiencies by comparing players at different positions. Last week, for example, Martellus Bennett was fairly high-priced relative to other tight ends…but if you compared his price to “what he was likely to offer,” he was extraordinarily low-priced. While a lot of people were digging around for “the best tight end values,” those who rostered Bennett “paid up for” a more expensive tight end, but they were still getting a great deal relative to what that tight end could be expected to supply.
4) Always study ownership percentages:
Every Sunday, you should be digging through every tournament you are in to get a feel for what ownership percentages look like. Pay attention to the ownership spikes and dips certain players see, and pay attention to the ownership spikes and dips certain matchups create. We all know that one of the best ways to win tournaments is by managing to roster that “low-owned player who goes off for a huge game.” I also mentioned that the “low-owned player” is not always going to be a guy who is massively under the radar; a lot of times, a guy “hiding in plain sight” can end up being the “low-owned player.”
One of my biggest weekends of the 2014 season came from rostering Demaryius Thomas. Demaryius Thomas! He’d had a couple disappointing games to start the season, his price had dropped, and he was in a great matchup. I was a bit scared to roster him that week on the chance he would have another disappointing game, but from having paid close attention to ownership trends, I knew he was going to be low-owned that week…at a cheaper price than normal. In spite of my fears, this made him a must-play. His final line that week was eight catches for 226 yards and two touchdowns…at 4% ownership.
I don’t tell you that story to brag (after all, I have plenty of stories I could also tell you about missteps I’ve made; I seem to make at least one or two bad ones almost every week!). Instead, I tell you that story to show just how easy it can be to find a low-owned guy who is primed for a big game, as long as you are studying ownership percentages each week. It’s not rocket science (fun fact / side note: my uncle is a rocket scientist; no kidding). It’s nothing more than paying close attention to ownership trends, and using this knowledge to know each week which players are likely to be left off most rosters.
5) Pay attention to talk throughout the week:
I usually do not look at what anyone else is saying until around Thursday or Friday. This helps me conduct my own research and come to my own thoughts and conclusions about whom I like and whom I dislike. Once we hit Thursday or Friday, however, I start paying very close attention to what others are saying. I start using this information to help me gain an idea of where ownership is likely to flow that week. I also use this knowledge to spot players I may have missed, or players I may be overvaluing.
Honestly, it’s not just “known names” I pay attention to, either. I like to read the RotoGrinders forums to see which players everyone likes the most. I scour Twitter to see who people are talking about. I dig around to see what the “talk throughout the week” is focused on, and I use this information to my advantage in any way I can.
Let’s put this fifth point in action.
Here are some of my favorite plays for Week 2.
Here is a small piece of the “talk throughout the week.”
QUARTERBACKS:
According to responses I have received on Twitter (um, JMToWin is my handle – in case I haven’t told you enough times; I’m on Twitter each week to share thoughts on players, strategy, matchups, etc., and to answer questions), my two “must consider” QBs of the week are not as under-the-radar as I expected them to be. Honestly, that doesn’t matter. Quarterback ownership rarely bleeds above 15%, and “taking the best floor/ceiling-per-dollar play” is always the best way to go at QB, even if the guy you like may be a bit higher-owned than you would necessarily love. I’ll start with these two I thought would be more under-the-radar, and then we’ll look at one other guy who is sure to be highly-owned, but needs to be considered as well.
Carson Palmer at Bears: The Bears are an absolute mess in the secondary. The Cardinals do not know what a “balanced offense” looks like, because they really have no one who can run the ball inside. Even if the Cardinals get out to a big lead, I still expect there to be some passes down the stretch; I do not think 40 attempts from Palmer is out of the question – and against this defense, he could once again return one of the top QB scores of the weekend…for an absolutely silly-low price.
Nick Foles at Redskins: The defense for rostering Foles is twofold. 1) The Redskins have a solid run defense, so even though the Rams are likely to have a lead here, I expect Foles to continue passing late into the game. 2) Foles loves taking shots downfield (eight passes of 20 or more yards in Week 1), and the Redskins’ sorry safety situation means that “shots downfield” have a high likelihood of turning into “big gains.” With Lance Kendricks offering a solid red zone target and several guys offering solid “downfield” targets, Foles could easily pick up chunk gains to get the Rams in striking distance, and could then capitalize with some successful end zone shots. He doesn’t need a huge game to justify his price tag (which I expect him to do with ease), and he should be able to notch a huge game anyway, making him a tremendous value.
Drew Brees v Buccaneers: Brees is the clear “top quarterback” on the weekend. We may see his ownership touch 20%. After all, the Bucs just got shredded by Marcus Mariota; imagine what Brees can do to them at home. I don’t need to tell you why Brees is a good play, however, so I’ll go ahead and tell you a couple reasons why he might not be: 1) The Titans got out to such a massive lead, so quickly, Mariota only threw 16 passes. The Saints will never hold Brees that low in pass attempts, but it wouldn’t be a surprised if he ended up under 30. 2) The Saints are desperately trying to figure out who they can use in the red zone to score touchdowns through the air. Because they have not yet fully figured this out, there is a chance we only see one or two passing TDs for Brees, with several other touchdowns scored on the ground. Brees is obviously an extremely strong play, but those are a couple thoughts to consider if you want to think of fading him in tourneys.
Russell Wilson at Packers: This is a bonus pick. The Packers have traditionally had trouble with dual-threat quarterbacks. The Packers should score at least some points, which will somewhat force Russ to take over. He should go under the radar this week, and he is a very strong option.
RUNNING BACKS:
If you have read my RotoAcademy courses – especially my course on roster construction (which, in case you are wondering, is probably the single most valuable thing I have ever written in regards to DFS, and is something that has helped ME a ton, even though I’m the one who wrote it), you know that I love paying down at running back whenever I have a chance to do so. As such, this first pick might come as a bit of surprise, but here it is anyway (followed, of course, by some great “pay down” options).
Marshawn Lynch v Packers: I think Lynch is going to be the core building block for my team(s) this week. If the Packers take the lead, Lynch will be used in the pass game; if the Seahawks take the lead, Lynch will be used to maintain possession. Either way, I expect Lynch to be heavily involved against a so-so run defense, and given his talent, this makes him one of the top plays on the day, with two-TD upside, and with pretty much a sure bet for 100 yards.
Justin Forsett at Raiders: After his disappointing Week 1, I expect Forsett to go overlooked in Week 2. The Raiders have a weak run defense, the Ravens should have the lead in this game, and Marc Trestman has a long enough track record of “running back success” that we should feel comfortable leaning on Forsett on our rosters this week. On DraftKings, where we have the FLEX position to work with, I am not usually one for rostering three running backs, but I may very well do that this week, because I like these first two guys enough…and these next two guys fall into the “must consider” range.
Carlos Hyde at Steelers: If you saw Carlos Hyde cut through the Vikings defense like it wasn’t even there on Monday night (about the only compelling reason to watch that game), you know that he will be one of the highest-owned players on the weekend…as well he should be. If “Talent, Matchup, Opportunity, and Price” are the four main things we are looking for at any position (hint: they are), we need to recognize that Hyde possesses all four of these elements, and this means we need to give him strong consideration on any team we build.
Danny Woodhead at Bengals: Woodhead should once again be in line for a big workload, as the Chargers will have to go pass-heavy in order to A) keep up with the points the Bengals score, and B) avoid running into the brick wall known as Geno Atkins. When the Chargers go pass-heavy, Woodhead is involved. Also, apparently, when the Chargers get near the goal line, Woodhead is involved. He is priced far too low for what we can expect him to provide this week, and this means he needs to be prominently considered on your teams.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Let’s skip over Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham Jr. All three of these guys are very, very strong plays. All three provide a high floor, and all three have 150 yard, two-touchdown upside. We’re going to explore a few lower-priced guys, though. These are the players around whom I will be aiming to build my team(s).
Jordan Matthews v Cowboys: Matthews received 13 targets in Week 1. That’s about the range in which we can expect him to reside. Here’s a fun fact: Any receiver who receives double-digit targets each week needs to be at the top of your list each week. This means Matthews should be at the top of your list this week. He’s a potential Top Five wide receiver on the week, and he is not priced as such.
Brandin Cooks v Buccaneers: The Saints want Cooks to be their go-to guy – a plan that did not exactly get off to a smashing start in Week 1. While Cooks should have had a better time against Patrick Peterson, the Bucs have no one who can really be expected to slow down Cooks at all. On the turf in the Superdome, I think the Saints try to get Cooks going, and I don’t see anything that will throw a kink in these plans for the home team.
Jarvis Landry at Jaguars: Landry is not a downfield option, but we actually like this in the Dolphins’ offense, as Ryan Tannehill has still not shown he can throw the ball downfield. What’s more, Landry has breakaway talent, and can turn “underneath” passes into “big gains.” At worst, Landry provides you with an opportunity to bank on seven or eight catches and 50 or 60 yards; that’s a pretty good floor! And at best, he can break away for a handful of big gains.
Nelson Agholor v Cowboys: Last week, Agholor locked up with Desmond Trufant for much of the game. A dud would have been easy to predict had we known this would be the case. The good news, however, is that Agholor was on the field pretty much the entire game, and he ran a massive number of pass routes. As we can safely assume the same will be the case this week – and as we know the Cowboys have no one in Trufant’s class to cover these receivers – we can bank on Agholor having more looks. Because this is a rookie in his second career game, I am only recommending this play for tournaments – but it is a strong play, indeed.
Values: Donte Moncrief could be shadowed by Darrelle Revis (assuming T.Y. Hilton misses Monday night’s game), or he could receive 10+ highly-valuable targets; he’s a bit risky, but he’s a very strong option nonetheless. Terrance Williams steps into the Cowboys’ “#1 WR” role; Dez Bryant rarely saw more than eight or nine targets last season, so we cannot expect Williams to suddenly emerge as a double-digit target guy; I think seven targets is a safe projection for him, so keep your expectations in check – but at his price, he is still a very strong play. Brandon Coleman is a sneaky guy to pair with Drew Brees; Coleman saw seven targets in Week 1, and should get one or two looks in the red zone this week (keep in mind, however: Brees threw the ball 48 times in Week 1, which is highly unlikely to be the case this week).
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski at Bills: Gronk is the highest-priced tight end, yes. If we compare him to other positions, however, he is still relatively affordable compared to what he provides. The Bills are going to sell out this week to stop Gronk, which honestly makes Julian Edelman a very strong pivot off of Gronk (Brady, after all, is going to be happy to target the guy in single coverage if Gronk is dealing with two or three guys each play), but you still need to give Gronk plenty of consideration as the clear, top TE play on the weekend.
Martellus Bennett v Cardinals: Every year, the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the tight end. Enter Martellus Bennett: One of Jay Cutler favorite targets, and one of his favorite places to look in the red zone. Just because it’s obvious and easy doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
Jason Witten at Eagles: Witten has almost no “YAC” upside, but with Dez Bryant out, it is not a stretch to imagine double-digit targets. Especially on a site with PPR scoring, Witten has an extremely high floor this week, and he certainly has the ceiling provided to him by the possibility of a touchdown or two.
Tyler Eifert v Chargers: Again: Just because it’s obvious and easy doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Eifert received 12 targets in Week 1. Come back to me when your other tight end options received that many targets, and we’ll talk.
I know what’s coming now: Complaints that these are “obvious plays.”
Guess what? Last week, I talked myself off my “core team” – the team I liked the most – because the plays were “too obvious” across the board. That team would have finished 3rd in the Game Changer on DraftKings, for $20,000.
In fact, even the team I used was one I nearly talked myself off of, because – again – it was “too obvious across the board.” “Too obvious across the board” still led to an easy weekend in all double-ups, and to cashing in every tournament I entered.
If you want to find the guy “no one else will be rostering,” maybe I’ll help you with that next week. This week, however, I want to pound in your head the idea that you do not have to go contrarian across the board. Oftentimes, all you have to do is make the smartest plays, and you will be able to capitalize on the mistakes others are making.
Build your cash game teams this week with these players as your core, and I can just about guarantee that you will have no problem cashing.
Incorporate these guys into your tournament lineups, and you will start out with a high floor right off the bat.
Mix in some super-under-the-radar guys if you want, but remember: oftentimes, all you really have to do is make the smartest plays you can make. Do this, and the rest will take care of itself.
I’ll be doing this in Week 2. If you want, you can do this too, and we can meet up with one another at the top of the leaderboards when the weekend concludes, and can talk about how fun Week 2 was…and can then turn our attention to dominating Week 3 as well.