DFS Alerts

Aaron Blair has not been good, opening the door for Mets lefties

Aaron Blair has an xFIP of 6.79 against left-handed batters, with a meager K% of 9% versus LHBs. The Mets are an up and down team, but the largest outbursts are generally driven by the Mets LHBs. Look to Granderson, Cabrera, and Walker to lead the Mets against Blair tonight. If the objective was to chase power, Michael Conforto (ISO of 0.283 vs. RHP), Curtis Granderson (ISO of 0.256 vs. RHP), and Neil Walker (ISO of 0.181 vs. RHP) all look to be solid options tonight in New York.

Saunders "probably" has an ownership around 30% in early-lock slates

Yovani Gallardo has an xFIP of 5.68 this season, good for 20th worst in the league. Gallardo’s has not been good, sporting a meager 11% k percentage and surrendering a fly ball percentage of 39%. Michael Saunders may be one of the more popular plays today, having hit 3 home runs yesterday, but Saunders is a smart play, irrespective of his potential popularity. On the season, Gallardo has a hard hit % of 39% versus LHBs, so play Michael Saunders with confidence.

Nick Martinez pitches to contact, putting multiple Cardinals in play today

In 2015, Nick Martinez was generous to both left-handed and right-handed batters, finishing the season with an xFIP around 5 against batters on both sides of the plate. Martinez also failed to strikeout RHBs and LHBs more than 15% of the time, meaning he allowed a substantial amount of contact. Of the contact Nick allowed, 38% of the contact allowed to LHBs were fly balls, meaning Matt Carpenter has a fair shot at lifting one out today. Look at Carpenter as a high-floor player who should at minimum, put the ball in play 2-3 times off of Martinez.

Porcello has been fine, but the M's crush right-handed pitching

The Mariners have a wRC+ on the road of 111 and play at Fenway today, a wRC+ of 117 against RHPs, and a wRC+ of 103 over the last week. Versus right-handed pitching, the usual suspects are prime plays today, including Robinson Cano (wRC+ vs. RHP of 191), Kyle Seager (wRC+ vs. RHP of 170), Nelson Cruz (wRC+ vs. RHP of 148), and Leonys Martin (wRC+ vs. RHP of 133).

David says good weather all around the league today. Good luck Grinders!

Don't pull the trigger on Triggs...and look to Angels bats for production

Andrew Triggs has been a reliever in the minor leagues and should not be able to go deep into the game today. His outings this year at the major league level have not exceeded 4 innings, leaving us to believe the Angels should see the Oakland bullpen for the majority of today’s contest. According to the RotoGrinders Daily Pitcher FPPG Analysis, the A’s are tied for the 25th ranked bullpen in the league, meaning the Angels may have a chance to face average to below average pitchers today.

Contrarian Special Part II: The Twins and Yankees will be facing pitchers with similar stat lines in recent weeks

Michael Pineda and Ricky Nolasco face off today, both sharing xFIPs over the last two weeks near 4; Pineda’s xFIP being 3.98 and Nolasco’s sitting pinch higher at 4.10. Over this same time period, both pitchers have k rates near 20%, fly ball percentages near 40%, and hard contact near 35%. They seem to be in the no-man’s land of mediocrity, perhaps making a full game stack a shrewd longshot, contrarian strategy rooted in a tiny bit of reason. Look to both RHBs and LHBs for Yankees and Twins hitters, since neither Nolasco nor Pineda have exhibited drastic splits this season.

Contrarian Special: A few bats to use to pick on Greinke

Odubel Herrera is batting second for Philadelphia and facing the most expensive pitcher on the early slate, Zach Greinke. Greinke has been going deep into games in his most recent starts, going 7, 9, and 7 innings in his last three outings. Barring a 11 strikeout game in Houston, Greinke has not been getting many punch-outs, possessing a 13% K rate over the last 14 days. On the other hand, Herrera is striking out only 16.7% of the time against RHP to go along with his wRC+ against RHP. The game is in Philadelphia, a slightly above average park for left-handed batters, 1.024 on the RotoGrinders park factors tool where 1 is league average. In addition to Herrera, Cody Asche is worth a look, considering he has a 185 wRC+ over the last week!

Jayson Werth has punished LHP this season (215 wRC+, .346 ISO)

Christian Friedrich has a 2.12 ERA with a 20.5 K%, but estimators much higher due to an 81.9 LOB% and 3.1 HR/FB with a 12.6 BB%. With a 51% ground ball rate, we may not want to pick on him too much in a pitcher’s park, especially with the Nationals carrying high price tags on DraftKings, but RHBs have a .350 wOBA against him since last season and Washington has a team 115 wRC+ vs LHP. The one batter worth a look on either site is Jayson Werth, who has punished LHP this season (215 wRC+, .346 ISO). Anthony Rendon has a 159 wRC+ vs LHP this season and costs less than $3K on FanDuel, but bats 7th tonight. Wilson Ramos (140 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP this season) is a fine Catcher choice on FanDuel ($3.3), but costs $5K on DraftKings.

Jefry Marte (221 wRC+, .421 ISO vs RHP) is a top salary saver tonight

Kendall Graveman has allowed just one of his 11 HRs over his last five starts, but has not struck out more than five in seven starts, including three or fewer four times and faces the lineup with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (15.9% vs RHP). Lefties and righties have both hit him for a wOBA above .350 this season as his ground ball rate is down below 50% now and his hard contact rate is above 30%. Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of tonight’s top bats, as is often the case, but for players looking to save salary, Jefry Marte (221 wRC+, .421 ISO vs RHP this season) is an excellent option. He has a 50.0 Hard% over the last week with a 124 wRC+ for around $3K on either site.

Urias set to go 90+ pitches, has struck out 14 of 37 with just three runs last two starts

Julio Urias has had the reigns loosened (90 to 100 pitches) according to his manager and has shown what he’s capable of in his last two starts (9.1 IP – 7 H – 3 ER – 2 BB – 14 K – 37 BF). His estimators still run well above his ERA due to a .356 BABIP and 23.5 HR/FB, but three of his four HRs came in one start at Wrigley. The Brewers take a lot of walks (11.8% vs LHP) and have some power from the right side (16.5 Hard-Soft%), but are an overall favorable matchup in this park and strike out a lot (26.3 K% on the road, 23.0 K% vs LHP). For those that don’t believe in Urias, Ryan Braun (181 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP this year) is still an option for about $4K and Jonathan Villar has been strong against LHP this season as well (155 wRC+) for less than $4K. Chris Carter is an average bat (108 wRC+), who occasionally brings the power (.291 ISO vs LHP this year). RHBs do have a .403 wOBA and 41.2 Hard% in a very sample size (49 Plate Appearances).

Joe Ross (18.0 K-BB%, 49.5 GB% vs RHBs) faces the worst offense in the majors vs RHP (75 wRC+, 17.9 K-BB%)

Joe Ross has held RHBs to a .245 wOBA with an 18.0 K-BB% and 49.5 GB% (-1.8 Hard-Soft%) this year. The heavily RH Padres are the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (75 wRC+, 17.9 K-BB%). He’s been a little up and down his last few starts and costs at least $8.5K on either site, but is still usable in such a great spot, though maybe over-shadowed by several strong arms in his price range. There are no San Diego bats worth seeking out, but feel a minimum priced middle infielder who bats left handed needs to be mentioned even though Ryan Schimpf is batting 8th. LHBs have a .341 wOBA and 36.7 Hard% vs Ross since last season for those looking to completely punt Second Base. He has just a -3 wRC+, but 55.6 Hard% during his first week of major league action.

RHBs have a .362 wOBA and 34.8 Hard% against Patrick Dean

Patrick Dean has an 18.1 K%, but just a 5.8 SwStr%, leaving a lot of batted ball opportunities for Yankee hitters tonight. RHBs have taken advantage of them with a .362 wOBA and 34.8 Hard%, though lefties have been limited to just a .293 wOBA and 21.7 Hard%. So though they both have a wRC+ below 10 over the last week Alex Rodriguez (141 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP since last season), who missed a few games in Colorado, and Carlos Beltran (141 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP this year) are the strongest plays here, though Beltran’s cost is a bit excessive. Rob Refsnyder (94 wRC+ vs LHP career) is the value play in two spot though. He’s $3K on DK, but barely above min-price on FD. Though he bats 8th, those looking for a punt Catcher, might do worse than Austin Romine (103 wRC+ vs LHP this year) for $2.5K or less.

Astros projected to score 5.8 runs, face the beatable John Lamb at home

John Lamb has allowed a .369 wOBA to RH bats this season including a 1.64 HR/9 rate, so he should be fully expected to struggle here on the road (5.99 xFIP on the road this season with a 3.68 K/9 rate). There are quite a few playable Houston bats, but we’ll start with one of the coldest in the league. Evan Gattis enters tonight with one hit in his last 30 ABs, and while that would normally be a bit frightening, this match-up is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. Despite his recent slump he still owns a very respectable .354 wOBA and .271 ISO vs. LHP, and those numbers only get better when he’s at home (.421 wOBA, .333 ISO). Next up is Jose Altuve, who is among the top overall plays of the night. Despite Altuve’s stature (he’s listed at 5’6), the second basemen still possesses plenty of pop, which we can see with his .224 ISO and 40.8 Hard% against southpaws. He also owns a robust .458 wOBA and 194 wRC+, so it’s really tough to find anything to suggest that Altuve isn’t worth paying up for in this match-up. Carlos Correa owns a career .352 wOBA, .213 ISO and 35.5 Hard% against southpaws, and given his premium spot in the Astros order, he should have plenty of run producing opportunities against Lamb. The nice part about stacking the Astros is that even when Lamb is lifted, the Reds bullpen is so poor that the match-ups will likely get even better. George Springer is at his best when he’s facing LHP (.415 wOBA, .259 ISO, 165 wRC+), and given the strength (or lack thereof) of John Lamb, we can safely assume that Springer will be making lots of hard contact this evening. His numbers when facing lefties at home get even stronger (.488 wOBA, .353 ISO) which only inspires more confidence in him. This is truly a dream spot for the Astros RH bats. Don’t sleep on Marwin Gonzalez, who is slotted into the two hole tonight. His 1B eligibility on FD makes him a tougher sell over there, but on outlets where he’s available at other positions, he’s a great target.

Victor Martinez homered three times last night and has two HRs plus a 95 mph aEV against Ventura

Yordano Ventura is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 10K) and seems to have solved his control problems (3 BBs total last four games), but still has allowed six ERs in two of his last four starts and had struck out three or fewer in six of his previous eight starts. While stopping far short of recommending him tonight, perhaps players might want to reconsider attacking him as hard with the improvement being shown. Miguel Cabrera (170 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP this season) is one bat that remains on the table at a moderate cost (less than $4.5K on DK, $4K on FD) along with the red hot Victor Martinez (148 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season) for less than $4K on DK, $3K on FD. He has two HRs in 18 career PAs against Ventura with a 95 mph aEV on nine batted balls. He also homered three times last night and has a 58.3 Hard% over the last week.