DFS Alerts
Matt Shoemaker has a 19.1 SwStr% over the last month
Matt Shoemaker continued his run of dominance, striking out 11 of 28 Indians without allowing a run in his last start. He’s now had a SwStr above 17% in four of his last five starts and a 19.1 SwStr% over the last month. Oakland doesn’t hit for a lot of power vs RHP and rarely walks, but don’t strike out a lot either (18.7%). It’s still enough to make Shoemaker a solid starting option tonight for around $8.5K on either side. His cost is starting to rise, but there’s still value to be had even if you don’t expect him to keep up his currently torrid pace. Oakland was nearly the victim of a perfect game from Colby Lewis yesterday. No bats interest us against a pitcher that’s been on fire.
Even without Bautista, Toronto lineup looks strong (176 wRC+ last seven days)
Even without Jose Bautista tonight, this Toronto lineup (176 wRC+ last seven days) looks strong. Mike Wright has allowed RHBs a .341 wOBA and LHBs a .405 wOBA since last season. This is a pitcher the Blue Jays should punish in Baltimore. Donaldson and Encarnacion (both 140+ wRC+ and .260+ ISO vs RHP since 2015) are your mainstays. Encarnacion may be the hottest hitter in the league (377 wRC+, 55 Hard% last seven days), while Michael Saunders (143 wRC+, .214 ISO) should pick up some of the slack (267 wRC+, .58.8 Hard% last seven days). Those are three top overall bats tonight. After beating up one of the better pitchers in the league this year last night, they should do the same to a much lesser pitcher tonight.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Mike Wright Diamondbacks should feast off Adam Morgan in Citizens Bank Park
Arizona will be one of the most popular stacks of the day, and for good reason. The fact that the Phillies are still rolling Adam Morgan out every five days is depressing. Sure, he’d be a nice fit in the porous Reds rotation, but he has no business facing major league hitters at the moment. Castillo and the Diamondbacks should feast off Morgan, who owns a 1.63 HR/9 rate against RH bats to go along with a 38.3 Hard%. As for the D’Backs catcher, he owns a .474 wOBA, .349 ISO and 54.7 Hard% vs. LHP, numbers that should play very well in this match-up. He’s at steal at $2,900 on FanDuel. Hitting in front of Castillo is the ever-dangerous Paul Goldschmidt, who is among the top overall plays of the day. He owns an elite .436 wOBA, and while his power numbers aren’t quite up to his career norms (.190 ISO this season), the long balls will surely come as he continues to hit the ball hard. If you are spending up at first base, Goldy should be the guy. Jean Segura’s numbers against LHP aren’t eye-popping, but he should find his way to the plate five times and with Goldy and Castillo hitting behind him, expect him to make his way around the basepaths a few times. He’s an excellent option to stack alongside the two aforementioned sluggers, especially considering both Castillo and Segura are priced right around $3K on FanDuel, so they won’t break the bank. If you want to go even cheaper but don’t want to cede any upside, Yasmany Tomas and Peter O’Brien are both fine targets in any format. They are reasonably priced across the industry and both should come to the plate with run-producing opportunities given the strength of the bats hitting in front of them.
Other tagged players: Jean Segura, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas, Peter O'Brien
Chris Davis (.367 wOBA, .265 ISO, 42.9 Hard% vs. RHP) provides very nice upside against Aaron Sanchez
The Orioles as a whole aren’t an elite stack against Sanchez, but that doesn’t mean we can pick out a bat or two here. Sanchez has been better on the road this year (2.91 xFIP, 9.24 K/9, 0.36 HR/9), but Davis is typically at his best when he’s facing RHP at home. Davis owns a very solid .367 wOBA, .265 ISO and 42.9 Hard% against RHP this season, and he’s had a ton of success against Sanchez, albeit in a limited sample size. Over 13 plate appearances (3 BBs, so 10 ABs), Davis has six hits, three of which have left the yard, good for an .858 wOBA. While BvP is a very volatile thing to trust, in this instance it seems to carry some weight. Outside of Davis, Pedro Alvarez (.355 wOBA, .250 ISO vs. RHP) is a viable GPP candidate, while Adam Jones and Manny Machado are options if you’re looking for power bats at very low ownership percentages in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Pedro Alvarez, Aaron Sanchez Granderson, Walker, and Conforto all homered last night, Cespedes had a 75% hard hit rate last seven days
John Gant came out of the Mets system, but was in the Johnson, Uribe trade last season and was never much of a prospect despite showing some ability to miss bats in the minors. He doesn’t throw hard (91.9 mph), but has carried that strikeout ability with him to the majors so far, striking out 19 of 75 batters, but he’s also brought his control issues, walking nine and has induced weak contact just 10% of the time. The Mets are starting to get a bit healthier literally and figuratively against Pittsburgh the last couple of days and could do some damage against a pitcher with a .446 wOBA allowed to LHBs so far. Michael Conforto (145 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP career) and Neil Walker (117 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both homered last night, as did leadoff man Curtis Granderson (144 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015), though he’s a bit more expensive. Yoenis Cespedes (142 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) always has to be looked at (75.0 Hard% last seven days), though he costs just under $5K on DraftKings tonight.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, John Gant, Neil Walker Mariners RH bats in a great spot in Fenway against Roenis Elias
Several of the Mariners RH bats are in great spots tonight. Not only do they get a noticeable park bump moving from Safeco to Fenway, but they’ll take on a LH pitcher who has thrown just 1.2 innings in the big leagues this year (he allowed three runs on four hits, two walks). Elias is a former Mariner who will be relatively familiar with his opponent, but he wasn’t much of an asset against RH bats even in the safe confines in Seattle. Elias allowed a .333 wOBA to RH bats including a 1.4 HR/9 rate, numbers that should rise if he eats up innings in Fenway. As for the Seattle bats, Dae-Ho Lee is a nice under the radar GPP play at 1B. He’s a better target in GPPs due to his tendency to be an all-or-nothing guy, but you simply can’t deny the power potential he brings to the table in this park. Lee owns a .370 wOBA and .277 ISO against southpaws in 2016. Ketel Marte is another nice way to save cap and still expose yourself to what should be a high scoring offense. Marte’s numbers against LHP over his career are average at best, but it’s really tough to argue with the opportunity he’ll have at the top of the Mariners order in a very hitter-friendly park. The upside here isn’t great (Marte has three HRs in 412 career ABs), but you can do much worse at this price ($2,400) on FanDuel. Unlike Marte, Nelson Cruz’s numbers against LHP are phenomenal. He owns a .417 wOBA, .341 ISO and 38.5 Hard% against southpaws this season, and his 2016 numbers were equally as impressive (.459 wOBA, .315 ISO, 46.5 Hard%). Don’t be surprised to see one fly over the Green Monster tonight courtesy of the Boom Stick, who is playable in any format. Last but not least, Franklin Gutierrez is another fine target as he should find himself towards the top of the order. Gutierrez owns a .350 wOBA and .164 ISO against LHP this year, but his numbers were stronger last season and if he keeps up his 49.1 Hard% vs. LHP, he’s going to find holes soon enough.
Other tagged players: Dae-Ho Lee, Franklin Gutierrez, Ketel Marte Chris Archer has a 21.5 K-BB% at home and has struck out 20 of last 54 batters
Chris Archer continues to allow runs, but has struck out 20 of his last 54 batters and has some great numbers at home, including a 21.5 K-BB% that’s 50% greater than his road mark. His 2.33 Home ERA is four and a half runs lower than his road ERA with a 3.40 FIP due to a 14.6 HR/FB that’s still a bit high, but 11 points lower than on the road. The Giants are a good offense with just a 6.2 K-BB% vs RHP, but not a ton of power. Archer makes a great contrarian GPP play with upside equaling any of the top arms tonight when many might be off him on a strong board due to the high level of risk. Giant bats mostly appear to be marginal values at moderate prices, though Brandon Belt (155 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this season) costs less than $4K.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt Dietrich back atop Marlins lineup, but Jon Gray has struck out 19 of last 52
Of course, both starts were against the Padres, but Jon Gray has struck out 19 of his last 52 batters and has shown tremendous upside in decent matchups outside of Coors this year and sometimes even at home. His 27.9 K% and 12.7 SwStr% are both second best on today’s board. His 61.1 LOB% has kept his ERA well above his estimators. He’s a top pitcher in a decent matchup in Miami and should find some strikeouts in this lineup. Derek Dietrich only seems to lead off in bad matchups. Miami bats are uninteresting tonight, though we have to mention that Giancarlo Stanton (84 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) is under $3K on either site tonight, as is Justin Bour (118 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP this season).
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour Quintana has been good, but his ERA (2.66) is a bit lower than estimators (3.55 SIERA)
Jose Quintana is having his best major league season by ERA (2.66) and K% (24.2), though his estimators (3.55 SIERA, 3.58 xFIP) and SwStr% (8.7) are a bit less agreeable. He has a history of suppressing HRs, but a 5.7 HR/FB is a bit low even for him. If we give him credit for his career 8.2 HR/FB it probably brings his ERA closer to three, which is still quality work, but doesn’t make him stand out ahead of any of today’s higher upside options for above $9K. He’s usable and perhaps what some might consider a “safe” arm as much as you can say that in baseball, but not essential in your lineup tonight. With low HR potential, there’s no real interest in any Cleveland bats.
Ortiz has crushed RHP this year (210 wRC+, .410 ISO) and has two HRs off Iwakuma
Hisashi Iwakuma hasn’t been bad over the last month (3.71 ERA, 18.8 K%), but there’s no reason to go against the best offense in baseball with a marginal pitcher tonight. LHBs have been about average (.314 wOBA) and RHBs a bit below (.294 wOBA) against him since last season. David Ortiz (210 wRC+, .400 ISO vs RHP this season), who has two career HRs against Iwakuma in just nine PAs, and Jackie Bradley (157 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the top spots to look for offense in an expensive lineup projected for 4.93 runs tonight. Both have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. The top three are still playable, but don’t offer strong value at such high costs in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Hisashi Iwakuma Lance McCullers has struck out 26 of 80 batters at home this season and has a 59.3 GB% on the season
Lance McCullers has been nearly dominant in three home starts (18 IP – 5 ER – 12 BB – 26 K – 80 BF), though a high walk rate (14.9% on the season) has limited him to five innings or less in three of his six starts this year. His slate leading 28.6 K% gives him tremendous upside and keeps him playable for less than $9K and a 59.3 GB% sometimes gets him out of the trouble his walks can cause. RHBs have actually hit him much better than lefties in his career (.326 wOBA to .277), so players looking at the other side of this matchup might like Adam Duvall (133 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP since 2015).
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall Matt Harvey has a 20.3 K-BB% last three starts and great matchup with the Braves tonight
Matt Harvey may not be as dominant as he has been in the past, but he has been pitching well over his last three starts (20 IP – 8 H – 2 ER – 3 BB – 17 K – 69 BF), albeit against some weak competition, but that’s still absolutely the case here again tonight. The Braves are the worst road offense in baseball (70 wRC+) and 3rd worst against RHP (77 wRC+, 25.1 Hard%, 5.7 HR/FB). Harvey is a top five pitcher on a strong slate. The only Atlanta bat worth mentioning is a red hot Freddie Freeman (141 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He followed up a cycle with a three hit game and another homer and has a 226 wRC+ with a 47.8 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Michael Fulmer has pitched well (23.8 K%), but has estimators well above his ERA now
Michael Fulmer has been good, striking out 23.8% of batters faced, but his four game scoreless streak might have him priced a bit aggressively tonight. He’s had a BABIP below .150 and a perfectly 100% strand rate, obviously, in each of his last four starts. His estimators and peripherals suggest something a bit closer to league average. Players should be careful with a high priced Fulmer in a marginal spot here. He’s not a pitcher we’re looking to attack either, but Eric Hosmer (162 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP this season) has made himself a part of the conversation nearly every day. Sal Perez (139 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) is red hot (277 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) at a generally weak position and Whit Merrifield (118 wRC+ vs RHP) is doing a nice job out of the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield The Phillies are the worst offense at home (66 wRC+) and 2nd worst vs LHP (59 wRC+)
Robbie Ray has a 24.8 K%, but we often can’t take advantage due to a high walk rate (10.2%) and a 19.3 Hard-Soft% that’s led to a 16.9 HR/FB in a really tough park this year. He doesn’t get a significant upgrade in park tonight, but he does in opposition. The Phillies are the worst offense at home (66 wRC+) and 2nd worst vs LHP (59 wRC+). Ray is one of several usable, high strikeout $7K to $10K arms on either site tonight. Not a single Phillies bat has a 98 wRC+ or better against LHP this year (min. 30 PAs), but at low costs players can still consider a few if paying up for pitching due to Ray’s tendency towards hard contact and a .341 wOBA (38.8 Hard%) vs RHBs since last season. Maikel Franco (.239 career ISO vs LHP) and Cameron Rupp (.198 ISO vs LHP since last season), along with Tommy Joseph are the best bets to go deep. Peter Bourjos has a 206 wRC+ over the last week if you need to punt an outfielder.
Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp, Maikel Franco, Peter Bourjos As usual, Cubs are large favorites in lone Friday afternoon game
Another Friday, another Cubs matinee game with them being listed as prohibitive favorites by Vegas. This time it is Jake Arrieta taking the mound for the Cubs against Francisco Liriano and the Pirates with Vegas having the Cubs as -230 favorites and projected to outscore the Pirates by over a 1.5 runs. The all day slate is generally a small one so if you want to roster anyone from this game you’ll have to take part in those contests. Liriano has struggled this season with an ERA and SIERA topping 4.50. Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist are your top options from the Cubs with Matt Szczur and Albert Amora providing value as both will bat in the top five of the order. Javier Baez is also in play batting sixth. You can safely ignore the Pirates hitters as Arrieta is one of the best pitchers in the game (he’s held hitters to a less than .230 wOBA from both sides of the plate over the last two seasons)
As reported by: Pittsburgh Pirates official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Francisco Liriano