DFS Alerts

Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a .344 wOBA to LHBs since last season

Anthony DeSclafani might have tonight’s top matchup against an offense with a 65 wRC+ at home and 74 wRC+ vs RHP. He allowed just one run in his season debut against Oakland, but there are actually more signs pointing to Atlanta bats than him. He walked three and struck out just two of the 27 batters he faced with 33% hard contact in that start and with a solo HR, he has now allowed seven in 23 innings (rehab starts included) above A ball. Additionally, he’s allowed a .344 wOBA and 34.2 Hard% vs LHBs since last season and Atlanta offers seven batters from that side at low cost. Freddie Freeman (134 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat. Mallex Smith (139 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel from the leadoff spot.

Drew Smyly has allowed seven HRs in last four starts, Cruz has a 190 wRC+, .318 ISO vs LHP

Drew Smyly has allowed seven HRs in his last four starts with a declining strikeout rate over the last 30 days (20.2%). For players who believe in regression, a pitcher with a season 19.5 K-BB% offers an opportunity at a lower cost ($7.7K on DraftKings). For those that believe this is a dangerous spot against a dangerous offense, Smyly has allowed 11 of his 14 HRs to RHBs and has allowed .325 wOBA against them since last season. Nelson Cruz (190 wRC+, .318 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the main, but expensive power threat here. The value plays are Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .251 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Dae-Ho Lee (141 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP).

Marco Estrada has a 22.3 K%, but just a .189 BABIP

Marco Estrada has a career .254 BABIP, so perhaps we can give him credit for something exceptional here, but not a .189 BABIP. With a strikeout rate a bit above average against a terrible offense (68 wRC+ at home, 76 wRC+ vs RHP) he can be considered for $8.6K, but would need to be nearly perfect to cover his much higher DraftKings cost and there’s always a risk of HRs with an extreme fly ball pitcher in a smaller park. Phillies bats have been ice cold and only Tommy Joseph (84 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP) has shown any power. He may be playable on FanDuel for less than $3K.

Steven Wright has just an 11.1 K-BB% and unsustainable 3.9 HR/FB

Steven Wright might get some real credit for a .254 BABIP with his knuckleball, but has shown some control issues, leaving him with a below league average 11.1 K-BB% with an unsustainable 3.9 HR/FB. Players are paying a high price for batted ball outcomes against a tough offense. Wright threw a complete game, but walked five Orioles last time he faced them a few starts back. Splits don’t mean much here, but Machado and Davis both have a wRC+ above 130 on the road and above 140 vs RHP since last season in addition to an ISO above .250 (.327 for Davis). For less than $4.5K on DraftKings, both should still be considered, especially Machado with SS eligibility.

Gausman has an extreme reverse platoon split, but Red Sox bats are expensive

Kevin Gausman, but with a 15.5 K-BB%, his ERA estimators are just where they were last year, a bit below four. The Red Sox are the best home offense (124 wRC+) and best against RHP (122 wRC+) in baseball. As far as hitters go, Gausman has an extreme reverse split (.357 wOBA vs RHBs, .275 wOBA vs LHBs since last season). David Ortiz (175 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is going to be the top bat in this lineup whenever a RHP is on the mound, no matter his splits. Betts (138 wRC+, .235 ISO), Bogaerts (142 wRC+, .156 ISO), and Pedroia (135 wRC+, .184 ISO) have all improved their numbers against RHP this year and look strong here, though all, plus Bradley (163 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP in 2016) cost $5K or more on DraftKings.

Cueto in a great spot this afternoon as a large favorite (-210) vs. MIL, who will be without Ryan Braun

The Brewers lineup today is to say the least… not that good. Ryan Braun is sitting against Giants SP Johnny Cueto and Vegas has the Brewers projected to score just 2.79 runs, a close second to the Kershaw facing Diamondbacks. He makes for an excellent pivot off of Kershaw – one that will allow you to afford an upgrade for several hitters. The Brewers have the highest K rate this season against RHP making Cueto even more enticing. The Giants bats are also in play as they have a favorable match up against Jimmy Nelson. Gregor Blanco is leading off for Denard Span (off today) and is an excellent value option. The rest of the top four of the order (Panik, Crawford, and Posey) are also great options to utilize. Brandon Belt has the afternoon off.

Do you hate money? Don't roster Clayton Kershaw if so...

While other pitchers might “appear” to have higher upside, no pitcher in MLB is more consistent or reliable than Clayton Kershaw. He has a sub two ERA and a SIERA that is just slightly above two. He has a K rate of well over 30% at 33.9% and a BB rate that comes in at a paltry 1.7%. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and it’s not even close. If there is any reason to not use him it’s simply his price – it’s to the point that rostering him makes it hard to target high run total games like the Yankees-Rockies game today but if there is a way to fit him in, it’s definitely a strong play. Trayce Thompson and Justin Turner are your top options for the Dodgers who face southpaw Patrick Corbin. Despite letting down the DFS community the other day when priced at just $220, Kike Hernandez is also a strong play as he leads off at or near minimum price.Those three bat from the right side of the plate where Corbin is most vulnerable (.342 wOBA allowed). The only Diamondback hitter worth mentioning because of the Kershaw match up is Paul Goldschmidt who comes in at a reduced price (just $3K on FanDuel) and might be the one hitter capable of doing damage to Kershaw (.445 wOBA vs LHP).

Unusually high run total for Marlins-Padres game today

Normally when there is a game in Petco Park, you will seldom see a run total approaching nine even when the worst of pitchers is taking the mound due to the nature of playing there. Today is the rare exception as Vegas has given the game a run total of nine with both teams expected to score close to 4.5 apiece. Justin Nicolino (Marlins) and Luis Perdomo (Padres) are the two SP’s today and while both have plus match ups against less than stellar offenses, Vegas is telling us to stay away from both. From the Marlins side, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna are your top options with Justin Bour and Ichiro Suzuki secondary choices. For the Padres, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers lead the way with Yangervis Solarte and Derek Norris being the two to target after those two.

Do you like money? If so, don't fade Coors this afternoon

With a run total that is three runs higher than any other game today, the Yankees-Rockies game is one that DFS players MUST target in some shape or form. Normally this might be a hard thing to do due to the prices of the hitters being too high but there is plenty of value to be had in both lineups today, especially if you are playing on FanDuel. Ike Davis is batting seventh for the Yankees and is minimum price on FanDuel and just $2.8K on DraftKings. It’s his first start of the season for the Yankees but at that price you can’t ask for a better spot. Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis is a reverse splits pitcher with a .319 wOBA allowed to LH bats and a .362 wOBA allowed to RH bats. The Yankees are giving ARod, Beltran, and McCann the day off so Chase Headley gets a bump to the clean up spot, Starlin Castro moves to the three hole, and Austin Romine will catch and bat eighth. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are the top two options for the Yankees but as is usually the case with a Coors game and a team with a run total of over 6.5 runs, any of the Yankees are in play today. The same could pretty much be said for the Rockies who have a run total approaching six runs and a favorable match up against Ivan Nova. The top five of the order (Blackmon, LeMahieu, Arenado, Gonzalez, and Story) are the top options but the other three (Raburn, Reynolds, and Wolters) will give you some cheaper exposure to the Rockies if that’s needed.

Jarrett Parker scratched Tuesday; Angel Pagan reinstated and will be replacing Parker

Angel Pagan will replace Jarrett Parker in the lineup against the Brewers. Pagan will bat 7th and play in left field.

Garza makes season debut in San Francisco

Matt Garza makes his season debut in San Francisco. Both lefties and righties hit him well last season (.340+ wOBA, 32+ Hard%). He threw no more than five innings (21 batters) in any of three minor league rehab starts with mixed results. This is a difficult park, but players can still consider Brandon Belt (142 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Buster Posey (126 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015), and potentially middle infielders Panik (132 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Crawford (124 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015).

Madison Bumgarner is the clear top option at SP

If you’re paying top dollar at the pitcher spot, the decision is easy. He struggled against this lineup in his first start of the year, but we can more or less throw that one out the window given that he was dealing with an illness back on opening day. It’s been smooth sailing since then, as Bumgarner owns a sparkling 2.46 FIP at home including a WHIP under 1.00 and a K/9 rate over 9.00. The Brewers do boast a handful of tough RH bats, although it’s not nearly enough to warrant any concern and the park switch from Miller to AT&T will only aide Bumgarner tonight. In cash games, there isn’t a safer target.

Billy Burns leading off, Coco Crisp out of the lineup against Martin Perez

Should we pick on Martin Perez this evening? He tends to fare a bit better at home but he’ll pitch in a very favorable park for hurlers, and the spacious setting will allow him even more leeway than usual. Perez does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (GB% over 50.0), but he still allows plenty of hard contact to RH bats (34.6%) and his GB% has actually gone down some from last season. His FIP and xFIP are right around 5.00 against RH bats so it’s very possible that the A’s continue their hot hitting from last night. If that occurs, it’s likely that Danny Valencia (.542 wOBA, .419 ISO, 51.4 hard%) will be a big reason why. Khris Davis is coming off of a monster performance and remains in the clean-up spot behind Valencia, making him a fine GPP target, especially if you pair him up with a combination of Valencia, Burns, Lowrie, Butler or Phegley. All of the RH bats are squarely in play tonight.

Ryan Rua batting cleanup for Texas against Surkamp

Eric Surkamp has an ERA above six over 83.2 career innings with estimators just below. Both lefties and righties have hit him for a wOBA better than .380 for his career, due more to a 1.2 K-BB% than hard contact (2.0 Hard-Soft%). Two RH bats in the top half of the order for the Rangers have been pounding LHP. Ian Desmond (158 wRC+, .208 ISO since last season) is an expensive bat, but Ryan Rua (183 wRC+, .196 ISO this season) moves up to cleanup for just $3.5K here.

There is some risk of delay and even postponement if things break wrong in a couple of spots tonight (CIN@ATL & DET@CWS). Kevin has both games labelled as ORANGE. Read his full report to access risk on our Weather Page linked below.