DFS Alerts

High risk, high reward pitching in Mariners-Rays game today

The Seattle-Tampa game comes in with the lowest run total of the three game early slate with Vegas projecting it at 7.5 runs with Seattle and James Paxton a slight favorite over Tampa and their top prospect Blake Snell. Both pitchers come in with question marks – for Paxton it’s been his inconsistency and for Snell it’s the unknown of performing at the major league level. On the same note, however, they both have high upside. Paxton has a 30%+ K rate to both sides of the plate this season and Snell is one of the top SP prospects in the game and had a good debut against the Yankees earlier in April. With Evan Longoria not playing for the Rays, Paxton’s job is a bit easier. Nelson Cruz is the top option for the Mariners as he traditionally hammers LHP (he comes in with a .443 wOBA and .363 ISO). Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee, and Chris Iannetta are secondary options for Seattle. Logan Forsythe and his .463 wOBA and .333 ISO is the top option for the Rays. Steve Pearce is not far behind as he has mashed LHP so far this season (.518 wOBA, .409 ISO). The rest of the lineup can be avoided.

Joey Votto top option in Reds-Braves game today

Braves SP Matt Wisler struggles immensely against LH bats. Fortunately for him, the Reds are resting Jay Bruce and he’ll only have three LH bats to worry about today with two of them being Kyle Waldrop (who would be a good play batting fifth if he had a salary on the major sites) and Tucker Barnhart batting eighth (worthy of punt consideration at C). Joey Votto is playing, however, and he’s a top option with his .380 wOBA and .229 ISO against RHP. Wisler has a .314 wOBA and 1.80 HR/9 to LH bats this season after allowing a .419 wOBA and 1.85 HR/9 to RH bats in 2015. While he’s much better against RH bats, Adam Duvall and his .349 ISO against RHP is another good option, especially if playing the small early slate. With the state of the Reds lineup, Wisler becomes a viable SP option in the early slate. Dan Straily starts for the Reds and he has been solid this season with wOBA’s allowed of <.291 to both sides of the plate. He struggles with control against lefties but has good K upside (26.3% this season) against RH bats. The Braves have loaded their lineup with five left handed bats and Mallex Smith is a great option leading off. Smith has a .376 wOBA and .191 ISO against RHP. Freddie Freeman is the other top target on the Braves – he comes in with a .356 wOBA and .222 ISO. A secondary option is Ender Inciarte who has been warming up of late with double digit FanDuel fpt outings in 5 of his last 8 games.

Robbie Grossman has a 228 wRC+ vs LHP this season

Robbie Grossman (228 wRC+, .323 ISO) is one of three Minnesota RH bats with an wRC+ above 175 and ISO above .230 against LHP this year. Dozier (177, .231) and Nunez (182, .400) are the other two. Hector Santiago has been lit up for at least four runs in four of his last five starts, striking out two or less in three of those starts. Minnesota has just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, but it was much lower just a few weeks ago and some of their bats look pretty strong here.

Tyler Duffey has great peripherals (15.5 K-BB%), but Minnesota defense has a .330 BABIP allowed

Tyler Duffey has faced several teams with low strikeout rates recently and faces the lowest of them all tonight (16.0 K% vs RHP), but he has great peripherals (15.5 K-BB%) and was pitching well, shutting out the Red Sox into the 5th inning in his last start before a three run HR basically did him in. The Angels make contact, but are not an offense to be feared with a below average 9.8 HR/FB vs RHP. Duffey has a great chance of covering his $6K price on either site and is a bit of sleeper here. His biggest issue may be a .330 BABIP allowed by the Minnesota defense. Two Angels bats we remain interested in are Mike Trout (obviously), who’s been as consistently awesome as always (178 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) and costs less than $5K, but also Jefry Marte has been working out as a great salary saver at First or Third Base. He has a .232 wOBA and .457 ISO vs RHP this year with a 50.0 Hard% over the last week.

Juan Lagares (thumb) scratched on Wednesday

Juan Lagares has been scratched due to a issue with his thumb. Kelly Johnson will replace him in the lineup and bat 5th. Everyone 1-4 will just move up a spot in the batting order with Curtis Granderson leading off.

Sonny Gray has been better since DL stint, but struck out just nine of 49 batters

Sonny Gray has pitched well in his last two starts since a DL stint, lending credence to the theory that injury was affecting him earlier in the season, but he has struck out just a league average nine of 49 batters with a lot of ground balls (55.3%), but still harder contact than usual (15.8 Hard-Soft%). As a pitcher who leans on weak ground balls and a great park for a lot of his value, he may be appropriately priced tonight, though there are many worse pitchers in his price range for $7.1K on DraftKings. The one Ranger bat that might have been interesting here is unfortunately batting 8th. Mitch Moreland (286 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days) has two HRs in 15 career plate appearances against Gray with a 97 mph aEV in eight batted balls since 2015.

While things look clear across the board as far as precipitation goes, there are some valuable notes on heat and wind speeds across the league. Check out the full breakdown by following the link below.

Oakland has several lefty mashers against a fly ball, low strikeout pitcher

Derek Holland has struck out more than three in just two of his last nine starts and has allowed a HR in four straight (three in his last start alone). A 0.85 GB/FB might not be as dangerous in a park like Oakland, but they have some lefty mashers in this lineup, who will get a lot of chances to do damage with so much contact projected to be in the air tonight. Danny Valencia and Khris Davis each have an ISO above .350 vs LHP this season and a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Both are top overall bats tonight at a reasonable cost around $4K or less. For those harder to fill positions and those who don’t mind dropping lower in the order, consider Semien (157 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP this season) and Phegley (117 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since last season with a 223 wRC+ and 63.6 Hard% over the last week). Jake Smolinski (143 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015) could serve as a punt Outfielder for less than $3K. He has a 248 wRC+ over the last week.

Rajai Davis leads off, Santana dropped to 5th against RHP in KC

Ian Kennedy was supposed to be a great fit in Kansas City, but carries an ERA with estimators above four this season. The problem is that he’s only pitched in Kansas City four times. He has allowed just one HR, striking out 29 of 102 batters faced in those starts and faces a poor Cleveland road team (79 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB%). His recent poor performance on the road may have done players a favor as he costs just above $7K here. Cleveland may have done us another favor batting Rajai Davis (86 wRC+ vs RHP this season) leadoff and dropping Carlos Santana (132 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP in 2016) to 5th. Santana has a 98.7 mph aEV on five batted balls against Kennedy recently. He and Kipnis (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the top bats here against a pitcher that LHBs have a .350 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% since last season, but the park should assist him as it did Chris Young, who came into last night’s game allowing almost a HR every other inning this year, and an above average strikeout rate should play, making Kennedy one of the more reasonable mid priced arms to take a chance on tonight.

White Sox bats have tonight's favored matchup against Pelfrey

It’s not often the White Sox have the top run projection on a slate (5.25), but that distinction often follows Mike Pelfry (2.0 K-BB%, 15.6 HR/FB) around. LHBs have a .373 wOBA against him since last season, so Eaton (121 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Cabrera (102 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) will play, thought Eaton costs $4.6K on DraftKings. Dioner Navarro (61 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has been awful, but wouldn’t need to do much as a punt Catcher for less than $3K. RHBs have a .326 wOBA, but just 23.1 Hard% and a GB rate well above 50% against Pelfrey since last year, so Jose Abreu (130 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since last season), who has a 191 wRC+ over the last week, and Tim Anderson as a min-priced leadoff SS are our best bets there.

Lagares bats leadoff, Cabrera cleanup against Jeff Locke

Jeff Locke (3.2 K-BB%) has allowed a similar wOBA to righties (.328) and lefties (.336) since last season, but has held LHBs to a 17.8 Hard%. The Mets are really banged up, but can still put some RHBs in there against him. Yoenis Cespdes has clobbered LHP this year (211 wRC+, .341 ISO) and is a top overall bat. Asdrubel Cabrera is an average bat vs LHP (107 wRC+), but is a SS hitting cleanup for less than $4K tonight. Juan Lagares has likewise been average vs southpaws this season (101 wRC+), but bats leadoff for just $3.2K on DK and much less on FD ($2.3K). Wilmer Flores hasn’t done much this year, but costs just $2.4K on FD and has a 145 wRC+ and .238 ISO vs LHP since last season. Middle infielder Matt Reynolds has had just a few ABs, but costs the minimum on each site.

Noah Syndergaard had his worst start last time out, but still had a 28.6 Hard% and 14.7 SwStr%

Noah Syndergaard is coming off his worst start of the season against these Pirates in Pittsburgh. He lasted just six innings, striking out just five of 28 batters, allowing three runs (two earned). He had a 40.0 LD%, but only 28.6 Hard% and 14.7 SwStr%. That was his worst start. He combines one of the top strikeout rates in baseball with a ground ball rate over 50% and is tonight’s top pitcher, costing $1.4K less than Kluber on DraftKings. There are no Pirate bats of interest.

Corey Kluber has gone at least seven innings eight times with at least six Ks in 11 of last 12

Corey Kluber has gone at least seven innings eight times this year with at least six strikeouts in 11 of his last 12. His 19.4 K-BB% this season is just below his career rate and he’s been great on the road with a 24.2 K-BB% since last season. With a solid floor and high upside, Kluber is one of tonight’s top pitching choices against a lineup with several light hitting rookies and a backup catcher. The two KC bats worth considering are Eric Hosmer (148 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at a reduced price and leadoff Second Baseman Whit Merrifield (126 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP) for less than $3K on DraftKings. With Catcher being so weak tonight, Salvador Perez (115 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with a red hot bat (290 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%) might be looked at for less than $3K as well.

Saunders and Smoak OUT of Toronto lineup in NL park

Jeremy Hellickson has impressed with his 22.8 K% this season, but he’s also allowed 14 HRs and this Toronto offense has a 157 wRC+ over the last week. Players will probably want to take a look at some bats in a small park against a pitcher with a tendency for some hard contact in the air. LHBs have a .366 wOBA and 34.8 Hard% against Hellickson since 2015, so Ezequiel Carrera could be a salary savor ahead of the big bats tonight for just $3K. RHBs have had about average success against Hellickson (.322 wOBA, 32.7 Hard% since 2015). Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion each have a wRC+ between 139 and 145 with an ISO between .260 and .290 against RHP since last season. All three are top bats tonight. Martin and Pillar both have wRC+ above .200 over the last week. With a run projection of 4.9 runs, this is an offense players can look to stack.

Diaz dropped to 8th in St Louis against McHugh with Moss still batting 2nd

Aledmys Diaz (147 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP) loses a ton of value dropping from 2nd to 8th in the order, but you can’t blame the Cardinals with Brandon Moss having a 176 wRC+ and .430 ISO vs RHP this year plus a 251 wRC+ over the last week. McHugh doesn’t have a real platoon split, but the Cardinal lefties are really pounding RHP this year. Matt Carpenter (171 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP this season) is pounding everyone lately (237 wRC+, 61.5 Hard% last seven days). Matt Adams (156 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP this year) may again be the value play for $3.4K. The Cardinal RHBs still continue to hit RHP well, but we might want to consider that McHugh has a 15.3 SwStr% over the last month and a .358 season BABIP in line for major regression with just an 18.6 LD% and 26.0 Hard% to go along with his 15.7 K-BB%. He’s in a terrible spot, but isn’t nearly as bad as his 5.22 ERA suggests.