DFS Alerts
Drew Pomeranz has a 25.2 K% and 3.30 ERA/3.15 FIP over the last month
Drew Pomeranz has a 3.30 ERA/3.15 FIP and 25.2 K% over the last month and the Padres would be thrilled if that’s what you told them he was going to do this year, That’s actually a step back from his season numbers, but an expectation of sustaining a 30% strikeout rate might have been a bit much. The Marlins are an average offense here in a tough park. Pomeranz is on of several usable, but not stand out arms in the $10K range tonight. Giancarlo Stanton still has a 163 wRC+ and .410 ISO vs LHP since last season and he hasn’t made contact in a month. He’s now below $4K on DK and $3K on FD for those that believe it’s just a matter of time. Marcell Ozuna (219 wRC+, .373 ISO vs LHP this season) is the most potent bat here and costs a bit more, but Pomeranz is probably not the pitcher daily fantasy players should be looking to attack tonight.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna
Yankees empty the bench in Colorado
Without a DH tonight, the Yankees would rather sit Alex Rodriguez than let him play the field and they must not want Carlos Beltran out there for defensive purposes in a big outfield, severely hampering their lineup tonight. They were tonight’s top projected lineup (5.55 runs), but we’d expect that to change after this lineup was released. This gives players cause to consider Jorge de la Rosa on two pitcher sites. He has an atrocious 8.81 ERA, but estimators nearly five runs lower and the 2nd best SwStr (12.2%) on today’s board. Lefties have just a .322 wOBA against him, which in Coors speak, isn’t too bad. He doesn’t even have to be average for just $5K. Yankee bats are surprisingly not all that interesting. None have a wRC+ above 101 (McCann and Hicks) vs LHP since last season. Rob Refsnyder (91 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) might be a bargain for under $3K on FanDuel. This is a disappointingly weak offering from the Yankees.
Other tagged players: Rob Refsnyder, Aaron Hicks, Brian McCann Rockies are one of two teams projected for more than five runs tonight at home
The Rockies are projected for the 2nd highest run total on the slate (5.45) right behind their opponents. Nathan Eovaldi has ERA estimators nearly a run better than his 4.42 ERA and a strikeout rate above league average (22%), but is no match for Coors. Lefties have a .355 wOBA against him since last season, righties just a .287 wOBA, but we’re taking Rockies bats from either side tonight. All aside from Parra (57 wRC+) have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP this year. Carlos Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the top bats on the slate, but incredibly expensive, as is Nolan Arenado (128 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP since 2015).
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Nathan Eovaldi Aledmys Diaz OUT vs groundballer (58.6% vs RHBs) Doug Fister
Doug Fister doesn’t miss any bats (5.4 SwStr%), but an 80.1 LOB% has led him to a sub-four ERA and he keeps the ball on the ground, especially against RHPs (58.6% this year), taking many of them out of the equation despite strong numbers against same handed pitching. He has a 1.09 GB/FB with a 14.9 HR/FB against LHBs though and they have a .341 wOBA against him since last year. Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is often the top Cardinal bat. He has a 232 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Brandon Moss (172 wRC+, .415 ISO vs RHP this year, 254 wRC+ over the last week), now batting 2nd, and Matt Adams (154 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP this season), for less than $3.5K, are other strong considerations here.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Brandon Moss, Doug Fister Miguel Cabrera (162 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) costs just $4K vs fly ball pitcher
Miguel Gonzalez is missing a few more bats, but also walking more batters. An ERA below four is the result of a strand rate over 80%. He has a 0.97 career GB/FB (1.26 this year) with a career 12.1 HR/FB, allowing more than 20 in each of the last three seasons in under 180 innings. RHBs have hit him for a .323 wOBA since last season. The Tigers have four bats with a wRC+ above 130 since last season (Kinsler, Cabrera, Martinez, and Castellanos). All others in today’s lineup have a wRC+ below 60 against RHP this year. Those four all have an ISO above .225 this season too and make for high power potential stack tonight, especially considering that Miguel Cabrera is the 2nd cheapest of the bunch for around $4K on either site. Castellanos is below $4K. Jose Iglesias moves up to 2nd in the order tonight and costs less than $3K at SS, but has just a 76 wRC+ and .055 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, JD Martinez, Miguel Gonzalez Josh Tomlin has allowed a .335 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% to RHBs since 2015
Josh Tomlin is missing fewer bats and allowing a ton of hard contact this year (20.7 Hard-Soft%). He has a large reverse platoon split since last season (.335 wOBA, 37.9 Hard% vs RHBs/.251 wOBA, 32.1 Hard% vs LHBs). This leaves players with a couple of interesting Kansas City bats. New leadoff man Whit Merrifield (121 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP) is a cheap middle infield option for less than $3.5K, who might be the value play of the night on DraftKings ($3.2K). Salvador Perez (130 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP this season) is an affordable (under $3.5K) and hot hitting Catcher (198 wRC+, 64.7 Hard%). While inclined to include Lorenzo Cain for less than $3.5K also, he has just a 79 wRC+ and 103 ISO vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Josh Tomlin Chris Young has allowed 17 HRs in 41 innings
Chris Young is missing more bats throwing his slider over 50% of the time this year, but he’s also allowed an astounding 17 HRs in just 41 innings, including four to this Cleveland offense just last week. Only four HRs have come at home, but players have to consider targeting Cleveland bats with power even in an environment that suppresses HRs. Carlos Santana is surprisingly the only bat with an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season (115 wRC+, .217 ISO), but Jason Kipnis (142 wRC+, .173 ISO) is close enough. Young has allowed a .368 wOBA to LHBs since last season, but just .313 to RHBs. Twelve of his 17 HRs this season have gone to LHBs.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Chris Young David Price has averaged seven innings per start over the last two years
David Price has seen his peripherals slip (18.6 K%, 10.3 SwStr% over the last month), but has gotten better results (2.78 ERA, 4.41 SIERA last 30 days). Overall , his ERA (4.63) still runs about a run above his estimators. One thing that never changes is his ability to go deep in games, which gives him value at a high price even when he hasn’t been pitching as well. His average of seven innings per start over the last two calendar years is highest on today’s board and one of the highest marks in baseball. Baltimore is a tough offense on the road (17.3 HR/FB) and have been red hot (27.1 HR/FB, 135 wRC+ last seven days), but struggle against LHP (87 wRC+) and have struck out a quarter of the time away from home. Price is among several usable pitchers in his price range tonight, though maybe not one that stands out above the rest. Batters from either side have a wOBA below .300 against him since last season, so players should probably not look to attack him, but it’s interesting to note Manny Machado’s improvement vs LHP this year (163 wRC+, .269 ISO). He’s SS eligible for a cheaper than normal $4K price.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado Jacob deGrom has struck out 19 of his last 51 batters
Jacob deGrom has struck out 19 of his last 51 batters and at least seven in each of his last four starts. His velocity is back to 2014 levels if not at 95 mph like last year. He has a 22.6 K-BB% and 4.3 HR/FB with a 4.7 Hard-Soft% at home since last season. The Pirates are an above average offense, but have just a team 72 wRC+ over the last week and Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball, while most of the Pirates value comes from a high walk rate. deGrom struck out nine Pirates in his last start and may be tonight’s top mound value for just $10K as he’s looked as close to last year’s form as ever over his last few starts. There is no interest in Pirate bats against him.
Updated Braves lineup: Jace Peterson now batting 8th, Erick Aybar scratched
Analysis coming soon.
As reported by: @Braves Other tagged players: Erick Aybar
Rays have a 26.0 K% at home and 25.0 K% vs RHP
Taijuan Walker has been very hit or miss. He’s struck out nine or more three times, but also four or fewer in eight of his other 10 starts. He’s not allowed a lot of hard contact (2.9 Hard-Soft%), but has been HR prone (17.1 HR/FB). The Tampa Bay bats don’t have a lot of value projected for just 3.81 runs at moderate prices, but they do have a 26.0 K% at home and 25.0 K% vs RHP. This suggests that tonight could be one of Walker’s stronger efforts.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Jake Odorizzi has a reverse platoon split, making Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+ vs RHP) the top Seattle bat tonight
Jake Odorizzi has a career low BABIP (.259) and career high LOB% (78.6), but is not suppressing HRs at home, like he’s done for most of his career to run an ERA below his estimators. However, this year, even his FIP is well above his 3.47 ERA. Odorizzi has a substantial reverse split (.328 wOBA vs RHBs, .260 vs LHBs since 2015), making Nelson Cruz (141 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the most valuable bat in this lineup in a $4K price range that’s fairly low for him on either site. There doesn’t appear to be many other strong daily fantasy spots in a mostly left-handed lineup. If you’re punting Catcher tonight, Chris Iannetta has a 305 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $3K batting 7th.
Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi John Lackey has a career high 27.1 K% and 12.8 SwStr%, but Nationals are hottest bats in majors (140 wRC+ last seven days)
John Lackey is riding the highest K% (27.1) and SwStr% (12.8) of his career to a 2.63 ERA (though we question the .254 BABIP) and has struck out 17 of his last 48 batters. He’s expensive ($9.9K or $11.3K) and Washington is no longer a pushover against RHP (96 wRC+). In fact, they’ve been the hottest offense in the league over the last week (140 wRC+, 16.3 K%, 18.3 HR/FB). Lackey may not be the top arm in his price range, but is one of the better arms available tonight with that strikeout rate. He’s held RHBs to a .264 wOBA since last season, but LHBs have hit him about average (.312 wOBA, 31.1 Hard%). This leaves Harper (190 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Murphy (190 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP this season) in play for less than $4.5K. Danny Espinosa in the 7th spot has a 298 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week and could serve as a salary saving SS for $3K.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Danny Espinosa Red Sox have top a 126 wRC+ at home and 123 wRC+ vs RHP
Chris Tillman hasn’t been bad this season, but still has an ERA a run below his estimators due to an 83.3 LOB%. He faces the best offense in baseball (126 wRC+ at home, 123 wRC+ vs RHP). Tillman doesn’t have a platoon split over the last two seasons and the Red Sox are projected for 4.7 runs tonight. Several Red Sox bats look strong, but are incredibly expensive. David Oritz (176 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat of course with the rest of the top four, along with Jackie Bradley Jr. all boasting a wRC+ above 130 vs RHP this year with Betts and Bradley having an ISO above .230 as well.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Chris Tillman Julio Teheran's 16.3 K-BB% this season matches Reds 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP
Julio Teheran has allowed seven HRs (of 12 this season) in his last four starts, but has also struck out at least seven in three of those four starts. His 16.3 K-BB% this season nearly matches the Reds against RHP (16.1 K-BB%). He’s in a good spot in a favorable home park that can limit some of the damage from his 35.7 Hard% and is one of several usable, but mostly interchangeable arms in the $8K to $11K range tonight and gets a small bump with slugger Adam Duvall out, but he was also a heavy strikeout candidate as well. On the other side, his 2.85 ERA is probably over-stated with a .228 BABIP that’s 50 points below his career average and he’s allowed a .370 wOBA with a 34.9 Hard% to LHBs since last season. That’s Votto (157 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce (134 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP this season) with an option to punt your Catcher if need be with Tucker Barnhart for $2.3K, who has a 197 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs have just a .250 wOBA against Teheran since last season.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart