DFS Alerts

Gio Gonzalez is allowing more HRs, but fewer walks, while Cubs bats are expensive tonight

Gio Gonzalez is allowing HRs at a league average rate this year, while he’s never had a double digit HR/FB before, but he’s compensated for it by having the lowest walk rate of his career (6.2%), while keeping his strikeout rate above average (23.3%), giving him a career best 17.1 K-BB%. He has a 3.43 xFIP at home since last season and at a cost below $9K on either site, appears to be one of the more usable upper price range arms tonight. Though the Cubs are a difficult matchup with a walk rate just above 10% and HR/FB above 14% both on the road and vs LHP, they strike out about an average amount. Javier Baez, by wRC+, has been the team’s best hitter vs LHP since last season (191 wRC+, .220 ISO) and is probably the top value in this lineup as an affordable SS for under $3.5K on either site. The Cubs have several bats at the top of the order, who hit LHP well, but are more expensive and really in a marginal spot here (4.19 run projection).

Blue Jays with the highest run projection (5.32) outside of Coors against Zach Eflin

Zach Eflin will be making his major league debut and should be avoided against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays bats are relatively expensive with all four players at the top of the order over $5K on DraftKings. Michael Saunders (.487 wOBA, 214 wRC+ L14) has been the hottest hitter over the past couple weeks and has a .412 wOBA, 162 wRC+ vs. RHP at home this season. Edwin Encarnacion returns to the lineup after a day off on Monday and he has also been playing well over the last couple weeks (.451 wOBA, 189 wRC+ L14). Encarnacion has hit left-handed pitcher better this season but still deserves consideration due to the fact that Encarnacion has 5 HRs in his last 12 games, which leads the team. While the Blue Jays are considered one of the top offenses today, you’ll have to use Marcus Stroman at pitcher for maximum roster flexibility. The Phillies have one of the lowest run projections of the slate at 3.18, making Stroman a viable option since he has struck out 8+ batters a couple times this season. Stroman has not been able to get out of the 5th inning in his last three starts and has given up an average of 5.66 runs in those starts, making him a play that does carry some risk.

Sean Manaea allowing a .382 wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 to RH bats

If you’re going to pick on Sean Manaea tonight, do it with RH bats. The Rangers boast a few impressive ones, with Ian Desmond boasting a very solid .430 wOBA, .217 ISO and 170 wRC+, numbers that should play very well tonight even in a pitcher friendly park. Desmond has proven to be a great signing for Texas and he’ll continue to be a force in the middle of that lineup against LHP. Outside of Desmond, Ryan Rua owns a .420 wOBA and 163 wRC+, but his .472 BABIP clearly isn’t sustainable, especially considering his hard% isn’t above 30.0% against lefties. Elvis Andrus is a potential GPP play thanks to his .364 wOBA, .176 ISO and 31.1 hard%, but there are other more suitable options in his price range (Marcus Semien on the Oakland side comes to mind). With Adrian Beltre (hamstring) out of the lineup, the Rangers are short arguably their best RH bat, which does work in Manaea’s favor especially considering he’ll get to do business in his home park, where he’s predictably been better so far in his rookie year.

Ricky Nolasco has an ERA above five, but strong peripherals (16.4 K-BB%)

Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top bat overall tonight for less than $5K on either site against a hittable pitcher with a bit of reverse platoon split (.356 wOBA vs RHBs since last season), but Ricky Nolasco has great peripherals (16.4 K-BB%) and can still be useful at a cost around $7K even if expected to allow a few runs. The Angels don’t strike out much (16.1% vs RHP), but are an overall league average offense (96 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ vs RHP) in a pitcher’s park. There are no other must have bats in this lineup and marginal prices.

Slight change to Tigers lineup, Aviles now bats 8th with Iglesias hitting 9th

The initial Tigers lineup had Iglesias in the 8-hole with Aviles rounding out the order, but the two have been swapped. It doesn’t change anything from a DFS perspective.

Stanton OUT, Dietrich bats 7th against Colin Rea

Colin Rea has just a 4.4 SwStr% over the last month and is a pitcher with little upside. RHBs (.332 wOBA) have actually done better than LHBs (.291 wOBA) since last season, though lefties have hit the ball harder (34.6 Hard% vs 27.7%). Giancarlo Stanton is OUT tonight, replaced by Ichiro Suzuki (114 wRC+ vs RHP this year) in the leadoff spot, which may actually make it harder for Rea to find strikeouts in this lineup. Those who thought Derek Dietrich (136 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be a good option tonight may want to reconsider with him batting 7th tonight. Justin Bour (123 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the power bat who may make the most sense here for about $3K on either site as he moves up a spot to 5th tonight.

A's lineup has three middle of the order bats with an ISO above 200 vs LHP since last season

Cesar Ramos has allowed a .339 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% to RHBs since last season, but doesn’t need to do much in a negative run environment against a below average offense to cover $4K on DraftKings should you need to punt a secondary pitcher spot behind Scherzer on DraftKings. He has pitched reasonably well in three spot starts (16.1 IP – 5 ER – 3 HR – 5 BB – 13 K – 69 BF). The A’s do have a few formidable bats against LHP though. Danny Valencia (157 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is one of the most expensive bats on DK ($5.2K), but potentially one of tonight’s overall top bats. Khris Davis (102 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is an average overall hitter with a ton of power. Marcus Semien (148 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP since 2015) gains a ton of value in the 2nd spot at a weak SS position. Josh Phegley (115 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2015) hasn’t gotten much playing time this year, but is always a consideration as an above average hitting Catcher at reasonable cost.

There is only one game with concerns in Kevin’s late forecast and it’s more on the pitching side as Kevin believes that Cleveland at Kansas City has little to no PPD risk, but slightly risks a delay. Since that game has one of tonight’s top arms (Carrasco), you might want to stay tuned to his Twitter updates for further news (@KevinRothWX), but it doesn’t seem like enough to players off of him right now.

Greinke threw a shutout last time out, but struck out just two and still has significant home/road splits

Zack Greinke threw a shutout his last time out, but struck out just two of 31 batters. He has allowed a .345 wOBA at home with just a 10.5 K-BB% and a hard hit rate 15.4 points higher than on the road. He’s still in a good spot tonight against a Dodgers offense that has struggled all season (87 wRC+ on the road, 90 wRC+ vs RHP) and have just a 50 wRC+ over the last week. He appears nearly accurately priced at over $10K on either site. Players probably shouldn’t go out of their way to build around him, but shouldn’t omit him if he’s affordable either. Not a single Dodger bat in the lineup has a wRC+ above 112 over the last week. Only Seager (143 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP career) seems interesting here, but he is by far the most expensive bat.

Arizona has three high power bats vs RHP, but just a team 92 wRC+ and 16.0 K-BB%

This is an interesting spot on both ends. There are clearly three desirable bats, two at reasonable prices against a RHP with a .343 wOBA vs LHBs since last season and a 40.4 Hard% overall this season. David Peralta has smoked RHP since last season (141 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Jake Lamb has become a force this season (138 wRC+, .259 ISO), while Paul Goldschmidt (151 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) nearly always plays at home and has a .226 wRC+ with a 52.9 Hard% over the last week. However, even with those three, the team still has just a 92 wRC+ with a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP. Bolsinger has struggled late in games, but been strong early. He has an above average 14.1 K-BB% and could easily surpass his cost just below $6K in five or six innings if his manager understands his limits and doesn’t leave him out there too long. This is a dangerous park, but a few runs are expected with the low price tag.

The Padres have a 24.9 K%, but also a 105 wRC+ and 16.3 HR/FB vs LHP

The Padres have a 24.9 K%, but also a 105 wRC+ and 16.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Wei-Yin Chen has been inconsistent and more than $8K is a bit much to ask for a pitcher who has struck out more than six only twice with his best performance coming against the Brewers. He has also allowed RHBs a .341 wOBA since last season. Wil Myers (130 wRC+, .159 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Matt Kemp (141 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) have both hit LHP well, but are both fairly expensive in a negative run environment. This does not appear to be charitable spot for daily fantasy purposes on either side tonight.

Castellanos bats cleanup, Victor Martinez OUT against Shields.

James Shields has had about as horrible a two start stretch as one can have (4.2 IP – 16 H – 17 ER – 5 HR – 6 BB – 3 K – 36 BF), which have turned his season stats upside down. He’s not a pitcher players can trust tonight, especially against a tough offense against RHP (106 wRC+), but they do have a 23.4 K% vs RHP and he does cost just $4.8K now on DraftKings. We know he’s a better pitcher than that, but you’d have to embrace a large amount of risk to take advantage of that price. The Tigers have just two LH bats (.379 wOBA vs Shields since 2015), but Jarrod Saltalamacchia (117 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a player you might think of dipping lower in the batting order for at a weak position. He costs just the minimum on FanDuel. The middle of the order (Cabrera, Castellanos, J.D. Martinez) along with Kinsler all have a wRC+ between 125 and 165 with an ISO above .220 vs RHP this season. The issue is cost with Martinez and Kinsler at the top of their position on either site, but Cabrera and Castellanos each $500 to $1K less on either site.

Carlos Santana has a 130 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP this year and costs just $3.5K

Edinson Volquez has just a 6.0 HR/FB in Kansas City since last season, but just a 10.3 K-BB% this season and is facing a Cleveland lineup with an 8.9 BB% vs RHP this year. Averaging just six innings per start, it’s difficult to endorse paying $8K for a pitcher facing an offense that should make him work based just on a low HR rate. One Cleveland bat that looks good at a low price is Carlos Santana (130 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP this season) for around $3.5K on either site. Every other bat in the lineup has a wRC+ below 90 over the last week with just Kipnis (139 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Lindor (117 wRC+, .148 ISO) above average vs RHP since last year. There’s not much to like on either side here.

Carlos Carrasco's velocity was up with a double digit SwStr% last start, Royals have a 26.0 K% last seven days

Carlos Carrasco started the season with some tough matchups and then hit the DL for a month, sidetracking his season with a current 20.9 K% well below last year and although his ERA is below four, seven of his 29 fly balls have left the yard. He’s in a good spot against a struggling Kansas City offense (26.0 K% over the last week) and in a park that suppresses power, despite being a positive run environment. Carrasco also showed some positive signs in his last start with a double digit SwStr% and his velocity ticking up as he struck out six of 26 Mariners. Carrasco has a 31.3 K% on the road since last season and the lowest SIERA on today’s board over the last two calendar years (2.69). A cost below $11K on DK and $10K on FD is a potential bargain if he’s pitching anywhere near full capacity against a below average offense. Eric Hosmer (149 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the only steady bat against RHP in this lineup.

Maikel Franco OUT against Dickey in Toronto

R.A. Dickey is in one of the top spots tonight, but has failed to strike out more than he’s walked in each of his last three starts (10 BB – 6 K – 17.1 IP – 75 BF) and isn’t a pitcher you can trust for $7K or more. The Phillies lose one of their top bats in Maikel Franco tonight, but still have a few worthy of consideration at the top of the lineup. Odubel Herrera (145 wRC+ vs RHP this year) has performed all season at a cost below $4K. Andres Blanco (119 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a salary savor for below $3K every time he’s in the lineup, usually at the top. Tommy Joseph (110 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP) has been on fire (223 wRC+, 50.0 Hard%) and is one of the most expensive First Base bats available on DraftKings, but still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. His 93.6 mph aEV and 248 foot avg distance beat those of Ryan Howard this year (93.3 mph aEV, 246 foot distance)