DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth has updated the weather report, showing slight concern for the game in Atlanta. Check out the full weather report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

John Lamb has been a launching pad against right-handed bats this season

It’s no surprise that the Rockies have the top run projection at home against John Lamb. He has allowed 15 earned runs including 4 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate this season. The Rockies only having two left-handed bats in the lineup tonight and even they are in play against Lamb. Carlos Gonzalez has 5 HRs in last 7 games and has a .710 wOBA, 344 wRC+ over the last week. Gonzalez is an elite option that is discounted $700 on DraftKings from last night even though he put up 24 fpts. Nolan Arenado (.360 wOBA, 109 wRC+ L7) is also only $4.5K, which is pretty discounted as well. Arenado was $5.3K last night, put up 36 DK fpts and should continue to roll against Lamb. DJ LeMahieu (.451 wOBA, 170 wRC+ L7) and Charlie Blackmon (.400 wOBA 135 wRC+ L7) also stack well with Arenado and Gonzalez but would require cheap pitching to go along with them. Trevor Story is the most expensive bat in the lineup and is hitting 7th tonight. This could limit his upside but he has a .398 wOBA, .309 ISO vs. LHP, putting him in play for tournaments.

Reds to take on Tyler Chatwood (.363 wOBA allowed at home) in Coors

Tyler Chatwood has been a very interesting story so far in 2016. He’s been lights out on the road (.219 wOBA allowed, 2 ERs in 33.2 IP) and while some of that has to do with his .237 BABIP, he does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (59.1 GB%) and doesn’t allow much hard contact (22.3% on the road, 28.9% at home). The Reds are not an intimidating offense by any means, but the fact that this game is taking place in Coors basically takes Chatwood out of play right off the bat. As for the Reds, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Adam Duvall are the primary targets. Votto (.339 wOBA, .237 ISO, 46.2 hard% vs. RHs) is a strong target in any format in the 3-spot of the Reds order, and he should be able to do plenty of damage if Cozart and Hamilton are able to find their way on base in front of him. Jay Bruce (.374 wOBA, .308 ISO, 37.0 hard%) had a breakout game in Coors last night and is positioned nicely for another one tonight hitting behind Votto and Duvall. Speaking of Adam Duvall, he’s been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season. He’s mashing RHP to date (.369 wOBA, .339 ISO, 37.4 hard%) and provides plenty of power, so the clean-up spot he’s residing in should provide him with plenty of run producing opportunities. All three hitters are playable in any format.

Vegas suggests that the Diamondbacks will struggle against Michael Fiers

Michael Fiers has a 30.9 Hard-Soft% vs. RHB, which means the DBacks could launch some home runs against him. Fiers has given up 7 HRs to right-handed batters this season so we should definitely look towards Paul Goldschmidt tonight. Goldschmidt (.516 wOBA, 226 wRC+ L7) has been on fire as of late and is sitting just under $5K on DraftKings. He also has a .397 wOBA, 146 wRC+ vs. RHP this season so he deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments. Jake Lamb has also been hitting well over the past week (.469 wOBA, 194 wRC+) and can also take Fiers deep. With the game at Coors Field projected to be a high-scoring affair, Goldschmidt and Lamb are really the only players to target from Arizona.

Robbie Ray allowing a .377 wOBA, 1.72 HR/9 rate to RH hitters

The Astros RH bats are in a very nice spot tonight against Robbie Ray, who not only has control issues against RHs but also allows plenty of hard contact (40% hard-hit rate). While his strikeout rate has been very solid this year (24.8%), his SwStr% (10.3) doesn’t necessarily lend itself to a strikeout rate of that nature, so we may see those numbers drop a bit as we get into the summer months. As for the Astros bats, we’ll want to pay close attention to Springer, Altuve, Correa and Gattis who just happen to be the top four hitters in this lineup. Springer (.469 wOBA, .275 ISO, 204 wRC+ vs. LHs) has been raking against LHP this season, the only concern with him is a high strikeout rate. He’s the ultimate boom-or-bust play here but the way he’s been producing against LHP makes him viable in any format. Jose Altuve (.462 wOBA, .256 ISO, 200 wRC+ vs. LHs) has seen his power drop off some, but for a guy of his stature his .256 ISO still looks very solid. He’s also playable in any format and has arguably the highest ceiling at the 2B spot. Carlos Correa has yet to record an extra base hit against LHP in 2016, but his 2015 numbers were solid (.378 wOBA, .282 ISO, 142 wRC+) which would seem to indicate that a turnaround is in the not too distant future. Gattis is one of the top overall targets at the catcher spot tonight thanks to his .390 wOBA, .250 ISO and 34.4 hard% against LHP. The Astros are a perfectly suitable stack away from Coors Field.

Orioles in a good spot against Joe Kelly at home

Joe Kelly has not pitched well to right-handed bats on the road over the last two seasons and faces the O’s who have really hit right-handed pitching well this season. Adam Jones is averaging 10.12 FD fpts over his last five games but his numbers suggest that he has been struggling over the past week (.249 wOBA, 49 wRC+). Manny Machado (.423 wOBA, 170 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) is an elite target but also the 2nd most expensive player on the slate today. Machado has been on a roll over the past week (.447 wOBA, 187 wRC+) and deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments against Kelly. Hyun-Soo Kim (.434 wOBA, 178 wRC+ L7) is the cheapest bat atop the order and is cheap on enough on FD to help stack multiple O’s. With the game in Baltimore having the 2nd highest run total of the night (9) we can look to target multiple hitters from this game.

Phillies own the 3rd worst wOBA (.285) and wRC+ (74) vs. RHP, will have to deal with Max Scherzer tonight

Max Scherzer is the no-doubt top option at the pitcher spot with Felix Hernandez scratched due to injury. While he struggled his last time out against the Cardinals, the match-up for Scherzer is considerably better tonight. The Phillies own the 3rd worst wOBA and wRC+ against RHP, and boast a very weak hard-hit percentage (20.6 hard% at home, 25.6 hard% vs. RHP), so a lot is going to need to go their way in order for Scherzer to struggle in this spot. Scherzer owns the highest K% (30.6%) on this slate and has the 2nd best SwStr% (14.7), so the upside here is truly enormous. Don’t get cute and play the fade in cash games, but looking in another direction in GPPs isn’t crazy considering Scherzer should be far and away the highest owned arm on the slate. If you’re going to pivot, look towards Jon Lester or Chris Archer on the high end, while Matt Shoemaker, Michael Fulmer and Aaron Sanchez are suitable GPP targets in the mid-to-low range of the salary pool.

Mike Wright and his 6.6 SwStr% destined to get pummeled by the Red Sox

The Red Sox have been absolutely raking in 2016 and that trend should absolutely continue tonight. Orioles starter Mike Wright is one of the least-regarded arms on this slate as evidenced by his 6.6 SwStr% and 4.57 SIERA, and the left-handed bats towards the top of the order should be core plays in all formats. David Ortiz (.473 wOBA, .401 ISO, 47.5 hard% vs. RHs) is the top non-Coors bat on this slate, and considering the match-ups in Colorado he may actually be the top overall play regardless. He’s been mashing RH pitching all season and is raising serious questions as to whether or not he should hang it up at the end of the season. Travis Shaw is the only other lefty in the top six of the order, and he remains a very strong target in all formats with his .397 wOBA, .226 ISO and 34.8 hard% against RHP. There are also several RH bats in play here; Mookie Betts (.381 wOBA, .232 ISO, 32.7 hard%) is a strong GPP play atop the order, and he can be targeted in cash games assuming you aren’t loading up on bats in Coors. Dustin Pedroia (.382 wOBA, .200 ISO vs. RHs) and Xander Bogaerts (.379 wOBA, .147 ISO vs. RHs) are also fine plays in this spot. The Red Sox rank at or near the top of the league in almost all categories against RHP, so target them with confidence this evening.

Marlins take on Jon Niese, who is allowing nearly 2.0 HR/9 to RH bats

Jon Niese has been beat up by right-handed bats this season, allowing a .377 wOBA and a whopping 10 HRs in just 45.1 IP. His numbers get even worse when he faces RHs on the road – he’s allowed 8 of his 10 HRs away from home in just 23 IP, while allowing a .428 wOBA and 33.7 hard%. This is great news for the right-handers in the top five of the Marlins lineup; J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are all fine plays in nearly any format. Realmuto (career .302 wOBA, .167 ISO vs. LHs) will draw the nod as the leadoff man, giving him considerable value on FanDuel where he’s priced at just $2,500. He’s an option in any format but is a particularly strong play in cash games. Prado (.343 wOBA, 114 wRC+ vs. LHs) isn’t an exciting play and he doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but he’s a suitable mid-range option as part of a Marlins stack or even as a potential cash game option if you need to pay down at the 3B spot. Ozuna (.580 wOBA, .475 ISO, 57.6 hard% vs. LHs) has absolutely crushed LHs to start 2016, making him an excellent option in GPPs, but his price is going through the roof which does make him a tougher sell in cash games. Giancarlo Stanton (.429 wOBA, .333 ISO vs. LHs in 2016) has traditionally crushed LHP at home – he’s making his return from an injury tonight and has been ice cold of late, but he’s still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. If you are looking for an inexpensive and underowned stack, give the Marlins a look.

Masahiro Tanaka has been an elite pitcher on the road but plays in a hitter-friendly park tonight

Masahiro Tanaka has been pitching really well on the road this season (1.34 ERA, .195 wOBA) which limits the upside of the Blue Jays. He has been tough to hit from both sides of the plate but Rogers Centre is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Michael Saunders is back in the lineup after not playing yesterday and has a .374 wOBA, 137 wRC+ vs. RHP this season. Saunders is the cheapest bat atop the Blue Jays order with his salary set at $3.4K on both major sites. Saunders (.379 wOBA L14) is a viable option in tournaments and could have low ownership levels with the masses gravitating towards Coors Field. Jose Bautista (.411 wOBA L14) has been playing well but is also the most expensive bat in the lineup with his salary set at $4.5K on both major sites. Josh Donaldson (.377 wOBA L14) also deserves some tournament consideration because he hits right-handed pitching better at home than on the road(.390 wOBA, 148 wRC+).

Giants lefties in a good spot against Williams Perez and his 4.54 SIERA

Williams Perez has had a few productive outings against the Phillies which make his season stats look considerably better than they should, but he’s in for a much tougher test tonight with the Giants in town. Perez has allowed a .356 wOBA to LH bats over his career including a very weak 1.42 K/BB ratio, nearly identical to his 1.26 HR/9 rate. While Turner Field is by no means a hitter’s paradise, it’s a little more friendly than AT&T Park and the Giants will get their full nine innings at the dish considering they’re on the road. The top six in this lineup are all squarely in play, but the left-handed bats are in a slightly better spot; Joe Panik (.320 wOBA, .180 ISO) and Brandon Belt (.372 wOBA, .185 ISO, 37.4 hard%) are the top two targets from the left-side (Brandon Crawford is out of the lineup), but Hunter Pence (.371 wOBA, .149 ISO, 31.3 hard% vs. RHP) and Buster Posey (.367 wOBA, .300 ISO vs. RHs on the road) are also perfectly fine targets in large-field tournaments.

Cubs with the 3rd highest run projection (4.94) against Michael Bolsinger

Michael Bolsinger has struggled on the road over the past two season and takes on the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Bolsinger has a strikeout rate of 19.1% in his first two starts of the season and the Cubs have a 20.6 K% so far this season. Even though they have a high run projection, it’ll be tough to stack Cubs due to their inflated salaries. Jason Heyward is the cheapest bat at the top of the order but he really been struggling over the past week (.282 wOBA, 72 wRC+). Anthony Rizzo has also been struggling recently (.225 wOBA L14) but has a .389 wOBA, .261 ISO vs. RHP. Dexter Fowler (.393 wOBA L14) has been hot but his salary is at $5K on DraftKings, limiting this upside and your roster flexibility with a Coors Field game on the slate.

John Jaso replaces Gregory Polanco; Jaso will bat 8th, Rodriguez up to the 7 spot

The Pirates will leave Jung-Ho Kang on the bench and will instead give the start to John Jaso, who will bat 8th against the lefty Adam Morgan. Sean Rodriguez will move to the OF and up one spot to #7 in the order.

Braves with some viable punt plays against Albert Suarez, who is making his first career start

Albert Suarez will be making his first career start after pitching out of the bullpen to start the season. We can look at the top of the order for some value plays, even though the Braves are one of the worst offenses in baseball. Gordon Beckham (.411 wOBA L14) has been hitting well recently and is only $2.7K on DraftKings. Beckham has a .371 wOBA, 134 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016 making him a viable option against Suarez. Freddie Freeman has been struggling over the last week (.187 wOBA, 10 wRC+) which should keep his ownership levels low. Freeman (.367 wOBA, .213 ISO vs. RHP) is a better play on FanDuel with his asking price at $3.1K. They are still the Braves, so it’s not recommended to stack them with a run projection of 3.97.

Gregory Polanco scratched from the Pirates lineup

We’ll provide more information on the updated lineup when it’s confirmed.