DFS Alerts
Moore had just a 16.9 K%, 9.7 BB% in May, but Twins strikeout 24.9% vs LHP
The Twins are the 3rd worst offense vs LHP (69 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 25.8 Hard%, 7.9 HR/FB) and it might get worse without Miguel Sano. However, they do have an 8.9 BB% vs LHP and Moore had a 9.7 BB% in May with just a 16.9 K% (8.8 SwStr%). He also allowed a 17.6 HR/FB (37.4 Hard%) and costs more than $8K on DraftKings. The Twins are so bad that he might make some sense for $7.2K on FanDuel though. Eduardo Nunez (87 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has shown more power than almost anyone in the lineup against LHP since last season. Brian Dozier (114 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP since 2015) could provide some moderate cost value at 2B, which is not a position that looks strong tonight. With a middling 4.12 run projection, there’s not a lot to like on either side here.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Matt Moore
Boyd has allowed 17 HRs in 57.1 major league innings, but Yankees don't have much power
Matt Boyd has allowed 17 HRs in 57.1 major league innings. He allowed two in just five innings in his return to the majors over the weekend, but also struck out seven of 21 A’s and had an above average 14.3 K-BB% with just three HRs in 48 AAA innings this season. If the Yankees had much power, you’d be worried, but they have just a 7.7 HR/FB vs LHP this season with the 4th lowest wRC+ (80). They also now have the worst road offense in baseball (69 wRC+). For under $6.5K on either site, Boyd could allow a HR or two if he keeps it clean with a few strikeouts otherwise. There are a few bats for the Yankees worth mentioning against such a HR prone lefty. Alex Rodriguez (142 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015, 116 this year) is not hitting lefties as well overall, but still for a lot of power (.278 ISO vs LHP since 2015, .316 this year). Carlos Beltran (101 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has steadily provided average offense with some power from the right side. Austin Romine is a cheap Catcher (and you might need to punt here) with a 137 wRC+ and .162 ISO vs LHP since last season. Starlin Castro is an inexpensive middle infield option batting 2nd with just a 101 wRC+, but .176 ISO vs LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro, Austin Romine Ventura's walk rate has declined (9.9% in May), but so has his strikeout rate (12.1% in May)
Yordano Ventura has his walk rate down to 13.1% with a 9.9 BB% in May and no walks in his last start, but he walked four batters from the same lineup in the start prior and had just a 12.1 K% (4.5 SwStr%) in May too. Cleveland has a 9.5 BB% vs RHP this year and will challenge his control. Walks don’t really win daily fantasy contests though and Ventura is not allowing a ton of hard contact, so Cleveland may not be the best lineup to attack with. The middle of the order should have some ducks on the pond though, so if you’re looking for an inexpensive pivot from Coors, Mike Napoli has improved against RHP this season (105 wRC+, .256 ISO). Carlos Santana has hit RHP even better (147 wRC+, .287 ISO) this season, but provides less salary relief. Jason Kipnis (126 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this season) might score a couple of those runs, but also carries a moderate price tag.
Other tagged players: Yordano Ventura, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis Pirates with seven right-handed batters against left-handed Wei-Yin Chen
Wei-Yin Chen has struggled against right-handed batters allowing a .333 wOBA in 2016 and a .348 wOBA 2015. He’s allowed a ton of home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons and the Pirates are a team loaded with right-handed bats. With only a 3.94 run projection, the Pirates are not filled with great options for cash games. Andrew McCutchen (.379 wOBA, .195 ISO vs. LHP) stands out as a viable target in tournaments. Jordy Mercer (.238 wOBA L14) has been struggling and has been moved back to the bottom of the lineup. Josh Harrison (.477 wOBA, 278 wRC+) has been playing well over the last week and will be leading off against the southpaw. With most people likely gravitating towards DJ LeMahieu at Coors Field, Harrison should be low-owned and is a nice option in the next tier of second basemen.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Wei-Yin Chen
Hyun Soo Kim moves into 2nd spot against Porcello, who's K% has dropped
Rick Porcello’s strikeout rate has cratered over the last month (17.0%) as some might have projected with his low SwStr% this season (7.6%). He has not struck out more than five in any of his last five starts and faces a difficult offense in a difficult park for over $9K on DraftKings. Hyun Soo Kim moves into the 2nd spot tonight. He has a 170 wRC+ against RHP in limited opportunities and costs just $3.2K on DK and $2.4K on FD. Manny Machado (148 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is another fine Coors pivot tonight at SS. Chris Davis (152 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is under $4K on either site as is Mark Trumbo (148 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP this season). This could be an under-owned offense tonight with the ability to score some runs off a HR prone pitcher.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Rick Porcello Red Sox with the top run projection outside of Coors (5.17)
Ubaldo Jimenez has really been struggling this season against LHB, allowing a .407 wOBA and a 15.0 HR/FB % against them in ten starts. With David Ortiz (.608 wOBA, 296 wRC+) playing well over the last two weeks, we will have to consider him an elite option in all league formats. Mookie Betts has also been rolling (.536 wOBA, 246 wRC+ L14) and is $5.5K like Ortiz on DraftKings. With the pitching options relatively cheap on this slate, it’ll be a little easier to stack expensive hitters. Xander Bogaerts is another Red Sox player at the top of the lineup we can look at. Bogaerts (.412 wOBA, 160 wRC+ L14) can be added to your lineup but does not leave much roster flexibility on DK with his salary set at $5.3K. Dustin Pedroia (.431 wOBA, 173 wRC+ L14) and left-handed Travis Shaw are also viable tournament options that are slightly cheaper than the three guys mentioned earlier in this post. The ownership levels should be lower for the Red Sox with the Coors game expected to be high-scoring (11 o/u).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Ubaldo Jimenez Chase Anderson allowing a .401 wOBA to RH bats, but his .197 BABIP vs. LHs suggests he's vulnerable to both sides
The Phillies are normally a team we pick on with opposing pitchers, but this may actually be a rare occurrence where several of the Phillies bats are in play. Chase Anderson has been getting beat up from both sides of the plate, as he allows a .401 wOBA to RH bats (including a 38.2 hard%) and owns an identical 5.51 FIP against both right and left handed hitters. While he has held LH bats to a solid .308 wOBA, he’s benefiting from a .197 BABIP, a number that will be on the rise very soon if his hard contact rate doesn’t improve (he’s allowing a 35.2 hard% to LHs). On the Philadelphia side, we’ll want some exposure to the top five bats in this lineup. Odubel Herrera has been one of the few bright spots for the Phillies offensively thus far, and he’s been considerably better against RHP as we can see with his .408 wOBA and 157 wRC+ (compared to a .313 wOBA and 93 wRC+ vs. LHs). While he’s not cheap, he provides plenty of upside atop the Phillies order. Andres Blanco, Jimmy Paredes (where he’s available) and Tommy Joseph all provide salary relief in prime lineup spots, so while they aren’t “safe” targets, they do possess nice upside given the price tags. Paredes is making his Phillies debut tonight and they’ll throw him into the fire immediately, slotting him third ahead of Maikel Franco.
Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Jimmy Paredes, Andres Blanco, Chase Anderson
Royals with the lowest projected run total (3.31) on the slate against Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco is the most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight and is also on a pitch count, making him too risky to play in cash games. Carrasco is still a viable tournament play but the Royals are one of the more disciplined teams at the plate, limiting his strikeout potential and fantasy upside. Whit Merrifield has been playing really well since being called up a couple weeks ago, but the Royals will give him the day off on Thursday. With such a low run projection, it is tough to recommend any Royals today and with Carrasco also on a pitch count, it’s better to just avoid this game.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup for the Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton is out of the lineup again on Thursday, after returning on Wednesday from a 7-game absence due to soreness in his side. Marcell Ozuna is just getting a routine day off and should be back on Friday. Justin Bour will take over as the cleanup hitter for Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto will bat 5th for Stanton. Juan Nicasio really struggles against left-handed bats, making Bour a viable option on the 8-game slate. Nicasio has allowed a .408 wOBA in 2016 and .412 wOBA in 2015 to left-handed bats, putting #3 hitter Christian Yelich also in play tonight. Yelich has been struggling over the last couple weeks (.280 wOBA, 71 wRC+ L14) so he is only a tournament play and not viable for cash games. Bour has been playing well over the last couple weeks (.348 wOBA, 117 wRC+) and is viable in all league formats. With Carlos Carrasco being the only expensive pitcher on the slate, Bour is easily playable and is not too expensive across the industry.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, Juan Nicasio Jerad Eickhoff among the top arms on Thursday's slate
The pitching options on Thursday are few and far between, at least if you’re considering quality. Eickhoff is one of the few arms worth targeting, as he’ll take on an underwhelming Brewers offense at home as a small favorite. The Brewers didn’t give us any real surprises with their lineup (Ramon Flores is starting over the ice cold Alex Presley, a very minor detail) which boasts almost nothing in the way of left-handed bats, something that should work in Eickhoff’s favor. The Brewers are 17th in wOBA (.313) and ISO (.155) against RHP, but the real takeaway here is that they have the highest K% against RHP in all of baseball (26.9%). Eickhoff owns a relatively average 8.9 SwStr% and 20.1 K%, but the Brewers strikeout tendencies and lack of any real threats from the left side makes him one of the safest targets of the day. While he has allowed a .371 wOBA to LH bats, he’s held RHs to a .274 mark including a K/9 rate of 8.13. It’s tough to be picky in terms of pitching today, so you’ll certainly want some exposure here.
Kyle Gibson scratched; Phil Hughes to start for Twins tonight
A stiff back will postpone Gibson’s return to the mound and Phil Hughes will get the start for the Twins tonight instead. Hughes hasn’t been that good this year (or last for that matter) but it’s not a huge upgrade for Rays bats since Gibson is a good match up as well. We’ll have more on this match up once the starting lineups are announced but the Rays are in a good spot tonight facing Hughes and the Twins.
As reported by: Mike Berardino on Twitter Other tagged players: Phil Hughes
Can Julio Urias bounce back from a disappointing debut?
Everyone and their brother were all in on the Julio Urias hype train for his major league debut but they were sorely disappointed by his lackluster start. One would hope he would be able to bounce back in his second start but he has the misfortune of facing the Cubs in Chicago, which is usually not a good recipe for success. Kyle Hendricks is a solid but unspectacular SP option today and with the likes of Keuchel and Bumgarner available in the early slate, is not someone to target today. He is somewhat vulnerable (.311 career wOBA allowed) to LH bats and the Dodgers have responded with five of the top seven batting from that side of the plate. Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, and Joc Pederson are the three top options from their lineup. The Cubs have an interesting match up against a rookie with all the potential in the world but until that rookie shows that potential it’s a situation we should attack. Favor the RH bats of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell if you’re going to stack some Cubs.
As reported by: Los Angeles Dodgers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Kris Bryant Two former elite SP's take mound today in ARI-HOU game.
Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel are household names when it comes to SP but both have struggled this season but the numbers say that some of it might be due to bad luck. Greinke enters today with a SIERA (3.71) that is a full run below his ERA of 4.71. That said, his K rate is down nearly 4% from last season and he faces a potent Astros lineup – the upside, however, is there, and if you’re looking to fade Bumgarner for some reason (cost savings perhaps), him and his counterpart are both viable options. Keuchel comes in with a SIERA (3.99) that is nearly a run a half below his 5.58 ERA. His K rate is also down nearly 4% but his numbers say he’s been very unlucky thus far as he has his highest BABIP over the past three seasons coupled with a LOB % that is it’s lowest over that time frame. Of the two SP’s, he’s the better option due to his price point (over $3k cheaper than Greinke) and a bit better match up. From the Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt is always a viable target. Rickie Weeks is interesting batting clean up – he doesn’t strike fear into opposing pitchers but it’s a prime lineup spot, good hitters park, and his price is near the minimum. For the Astros, the top four of the lineup (Springer, Altuve, Correa, Rasmus) are all good, but not great, options facing Greinke.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Rickie Weeks Giants and Madison Bumgarner huge favorites in Atlanta today
When you make Jake Peavy look like the Jake Peavy of old, your offense is probably pretty bad and to say the Braves offense is that is likely an understatement. Today, Madison Bumgarner has to be licking his chops as he gets to square off against Atlanta and Vegas has made the Giants prohibitive -245 favorites while projecting just over 2.5 runs scored for the home team. Not only is Bumgarner the top option of the early slate, he’s also the top option of the all day slate – he’s a cash game lock and while there is always merit to fading projected high ownership SP’s, you’d be foolish to not have exposure to him in GPP’s. The Braves bats can be avoided. Atlanta has Aaron Blair on the mound today and while he looked good last season and early this season in the minors, that hasn’t translated well in the bigs as he has allowed a .408 wOBA to LH bats (with a paltry 5% K rate) and a .309 wOBA to RH bats. The top six of the Giants batting order (Span-Panik-Duffy-Posey-Belt-Crawford) today are excellent options with Belt (.407 wOBA .210 ISO vs RHP) the best of that group.
As reported by: San Francisco Giants official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Brandon Belt Right-handed bats in play against Christian Friedrich and his 4.47 SIERA
Christian Friedrich has walked 10 right-handed batters in 14.1 innings so far this season. Even though the Mariners are playing in a more pitcher-friendly park, they still have some viable bats available. Franklin Gutierrez (.574 wOBA, 282 wRC+ L7) and Nelson Cruz (.433 wOBA, 184 wRC+ L7) are solid to stack together due to discount Gutierrez provides. Robinson Cano (.452 wOBA, 197 wRC+ L7) and Kyle Seager (.530 wOBA, 251 wRC+ L7) are also viable left-handed bats to use against Friedrich, but with a 4.04 run projection and a pitcher-friendly park, it’s best to limit the exposure to the Mariners.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Christian Friedrich