DFS Alerts

Astros visit Diamondbacks for one of two afternoon games today

The visiting Astros and Lance McCullers are favorites against the Diamondbacks and Patrick Corbin today in one of two afternoon games. McCullers will be making his fourth start of the season and has looked good his last two starts (17 K’s in 11 IP) after a shaky first outing. Over the course of his short career, McCullers has been a reverse splits pitcher (.263 wOBA to LH bats, .321 wOBA to RH bats). He has the high K upside (25.4% career K rate) you look for in a SP and is a GPP option despite pitching in hitter friendly Arizona. Paul Goldschmidt as usual is your top option from Arizona with Jean Segura and Jake Lamb secondary options. Corbin is vulnerable to RH bats (.343 wOBA this season, .326 career) and the Astros only have one lefty (Luis Valbuena) in their lineup today. Carlos Gomez returns to the Astros lineup today and despite batting seventh makes an interesting GPP target as he’ll likely be under owned and comes in at a cheap price tag. The rest of the top five of the order (Springer, Altuve, Correa, Gattis, White) are all excellent options today with Gattis (.430 wOBA, .263 ISO vs LHP this season) and Altuve (.458 wOBA, .268 ISO vs LHP this season) the top choices of that group.

Kevin Roth’s latest tweet mentions some risk in the Tampa Bay @ Kansas City game, but says that popup storms have quickly “fizzled”. That’s great news in terms of playing the overall game, but a delay may still be possible and players will want to assess their risk with Ian Kennedy, who projects to be one of tonight’s top pitchers.

Tigers with a run projection of 4.04 against Jhoulys Chacin in a pitcher-friendly park

The Tigers have been hitting right-handed pitching well all season but face Jhoulys Chacin at Angel Stadium. Chacin has only started three games for the Angels since coming over in a trade but has only played one game at home. Chacin also has no more than 4Ks in each of his last five starts. Ian Kinsler has been on a tear lately (.528 wOBA L14) but is also the most expensive bat in the lineup at 5.3K on DraftKings. Miguel Cabrera is also over $5K and has been hot over the last week with a .398 wOBA,155 wRC+. Cabrera (.415 wOBA, .219 ISO vs. RHP) is too expensive for cash games but does still have the upside needed in tournaments. Victor Martinez has also been hitting well over the past week (.494 wOBA, 222 wRC+) and is a more reasonable $3.7K on DraftKings. With a below-average team total and playing in the last game of the night, the Tigers could go overlooked in tournaments.

Verlander has been dominant last four starts (30.1 IP - 4 ER - 9 BB - 37 K)

Justin Verlander hasn’t regained any previous velocity. In fact, he’s still down another half mph this season, but he is tied for the highest SwStr of his career (11.9%) after a mark above 12% in each of his last four dominant starts, resulting in four runs over 30.1 IP while striking out 37 of 115 batters faced (nine walks). We can’t completely forget the last three years happened, but this would be (and has already been) a pretty amazing story. The Angels aren’t imposing offensively and look like even less with Yunel Escobar out tonight, but they do have the lowest strikeout rate vs RHP in the majors (15.6%), which could potentially limit Verlander’s upside at a costly $10.9K on DraftKings. Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2015) seems playable in almost any situation and his cost is reduced on DraftKings ($4.5K). Verlander has allowed a slightly higher .299 wOBA both since 2015 and over his career to RHBs, though there are really no other enticing bats in this matchup.

Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira return; A-Rod out of the lineup

Carlos Beltran did not play on Sunday due to a sore shoulder but is back in the lineup against Marco Estrada. Beltran has a 94.7 mph aEV in 14 batted balls against Estrada since last season. He’s tagged Estrada for three home runs in 27 ABs and has a .360 wOBA, 128 wRC+ over the past week. Mark Teixeira officially returns to the lineup after pinch-hitting last night, he had been out the past five days with a neck issue. Teixeira has 93 mph aEV in 7 batted balls against Estrada and also has three home runs in 11 ABs since last season. A-Rod has been struggling since returning from injury and will get the day off on Monday. The Yankees currently have the 2nd lowest run projection (3.82) of the 14 team yet to play today, making them only GPP targets and too risky to trust for cash games.

Pirates are the top projected offense (4.98 runs) against Nicolino with Harrison leading off

Justin Nicolino doubled his season strikeout total with six in his last start. He now has 35 in 18 career starts. Batters have additionally hit 39.3% of batted balls hard against him. Missing few bats, that’s a lot of opportunities for offensive damage tonight. RHBs have hit him for a .328 wOBA since last season and all seven are stackable here. Sean Rodriguez bats 8th, but is still playable with middle infield eligibility and the lowest cost ($3K on DK, $2.5K on FD). He has a 191 wRC+ and .258 ISO vs LHP this season with a 53.9 Hard% in a small sample overall in the last seven days. In fact, Kang, Harrison (batting leadoff tonight), McCutchen, and Marte all have hit the ball hard more than 40% of the time over the last week. Kang additionally has a 124 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP in his career. Many of these Pittsburgh bats are expensive, but stand a good chance of paying off. Jordy Mercer is the most notable RH bat absent tonight.

Jose Bautista has a 99.9 mph aEV against Nova (nine batted balls)

Ivan Nova has generated ground balls at a 63.6% rate through 37 innings this year. His strikeout rate was lacking despite a nearly average SwStr% around nine, but that’s begun to correct after striking out eight of 30 Blue Jays in his last start. He did allow a HR and four runs in that start and it’s often to the advantage of a good offense when they see a pitcher in consecutive outings, making Nova a borderline pitcher at best for a league average cost in another tough park. One Blue Jay who has hit him very hard is Jose Bautista (148 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 99.9 mph aEV in nine batted balls since last season. He has four extra base hits (though just one HR) in 27 ABs against him overall in his career. Josh Donaldson (143 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is another expensive bat, who continues to pound pitchers from either side. Nova has struggled more against LHBs (.360 wOBA, 32 Hard% since 2015) making Justin Smoak (148 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP this season) perhaps the value play for nearly $1K less on either site than Michael Saunders (138 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP this season) with similar numbers.

Stanton OUT, Yelich back, Hechavarria leads off vs lefty Locke

Jeff Locke has a 5.08 ERA, 5.17 SIERA with a 14.2 K%. The lowest of his ERA estimators is a 4.97 xFIP tonight. It of course helps a lefty facing the Marlins when Stanton is out, but this is not a good pitcher, who has only struck out eight more than he’s walked through nine starts. The Marlins have just one left handed bat in the lineup tonight, though Locke hasn’t shown much of a platoon split since last season (.328 wOBA vs RHBs, .336 wOBA vs LHBs), though lefties have hit just 17.3% of batted balls hard against him. Marcell Ozuna (303 wRC+, .514 ISO vs LHP this season) has taken Stanton’s spot in just pulverizing LHP and might be tonight’s top overall bat, but also one of the most expensive ($5.2K DK, $4.2K FD). He has a 288 wRC+ and 43.5 Hard% over the last week. Martin Prado (131 wRC+) has been the only other RH in the top seven above average vs RHP this year, but that comes with just a .061 ISO. New leadoff many Adeiny Hechavarria has a 125 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, but just a 28 wRC+, .107 ISO in 2016.

Andriese costs $10.2K on DraftKings with just a 16.2 K%

Matt Andriese has built 2.63 ERA through four starts based on a .225 BABIP and 3.4 HR/FB despite a 37.0 Hard% (13.6 Soft%). He’s struck out just 16.2% of batters, including a season high six against an ailing Marlins offense in his last start. He faces a limping Royals offense tonight, but unfortunately, it’s difficult to find anything supporting his $10.2K cost on DraftKings with those underlying numbers. His FanDuel cost ($7.6K) is much more reasonable, but you’re still just hoping for potentially hard contact to find gloves. Through 93 major league innings, he’s held RHBs to a .277 wOBA, but again a 37.7 Hard%, though we’re not really seeing any Royals bats that need to be owned tonight. Eric Hosmer (151 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since last season) could do some damage, but costs well over $4K on either site.

Kennedy has allowed 1 HR, struck out 23 of 76 batters at home, Rays 26.1 K% vs RHP

Ian Kennedy starts only his 4th game in Kansas City this season, but has been dominant in his previous three (18.2 IP – 4 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 23K – 76 BF). This is a team and park perfectly suited to his skill set. He has struck out at least six in seven of nine starts and faces an offense with a 26.1 K% vs RHP. He’s among the contenders for top overall upside tonight and potentially the top value overall on FanDuel ($8.1K), while still being playable for nearly $10K on DraftKings. Kennedy has allowed batters from either side a 35 Hard% and wOBA between .330 to .340 since last season, so although this might be a tougher park to hit the ball out of, we can potentially consider some of the higher power bats. Unfortunately, the best of those, Corey Dickerson (120 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP this season) bats 7th. Brandon Guyer has done a good job against RHP though (141 wRC+, .233 ISO this season) for a similar cost ($3.4K to $3.6K), while Tyler Motter (117 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP in limited opportunities) costs just above the minimum on FanDuel.

Hellickson has the day's 2nd best SwStr (12.3%) with more GBs, weaker contact last two starts

Jeremy Hellickson has the 2nd highest SwStr among all the day’s pitchers (12.3%) and first among just qualified pitchers. He has suffered from some hard contact issues and has allowed nine HRs on the season, but none in his last three starts and has a 51.4 GB% with a -2.8 Hard-Soft% over his last two. The RH Washington bats struggle against RHP, resulting in a team 87 wRC+. Hellickson is one of a few usable pitchers on either site tonight even if he’s a bit more expensive, but still reasonable for $8.5K on DraftKings. Because he has had hard contact issues though, we don’t have to throw away all of the Washington bats in lineups where he’s not being used. Harper (195 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Murphy (182 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP this year) are the obvious names. No other batter in the lineup has a wRC+ above 95 vs RHP since last season, however, Zimmerman (104 wRC+) and Rendon (98 wRC+) have been at least average this year and both have a 181 wRC+ over the last week with a hard hit rate above 54%. If you’re looking for a less expensive bat, Wilson Ramos (143 wRC+ vs RHP this season) costs just $3K and plays an often difficult daily fantasy position. Hellickson has allowed batters from either side a wOBA above .325 and hard hit rate above 33% since last season, though, as was just mentioned, improved this year and even more so in recent starts.

Tanner Roark has a 54.4 GB% and -10.2 Hard-Soft%, Phillies 75 wRC+ vs RHP

Tanner Roark’s 22.0 K% might skew a bit high with 15 Ks coming in a single outing. In fact, he’s only generated a league average or better SwStr% three times, so we might not expect him to remain above average in that category, but his batted ball and contact profile have been so spectacular (54.4 GB%, -10.2 Hard-Soft%) that if he comes even close to average in the bat missing department, he’ll be a useful daily fantasy pitcher. The Phillies have been a terrible offense at home (6.8 HR/FB, -0.2 Hard-Soft%) and vs RHP (9.2 HR/FB, 5.2 Hard-Soft%). The one flaw is his high cost on DraftKings ($9.6K), where there are no real standouts on the night slate, but he’s one of a few playable arms on either site. Roark has been hit a bit harder by LHBs since last season (.328 wOBA, 30.1 Hard% – .302 wOBA, 19.9 Hard% vs RHBs), so while the Philadelphia bats are among the least interesting tonight, there may be one LH bat worth a look. Odubel Herrera (157 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this year) has been an All Star bat in this lineup. He has a 43.8 Hard% over the last week. On FanDuel, Ryan Howard is the minimum price, but maybe he should be (49 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP this year). The Phillies have a slate low projection of just 3.44 runs.

Nate Karns one of top SP options facing woeful Padres today

The Mariners and Nate Karns come in as huge (-209) favorites against the Padres and Andrew Cashner today. Karns has pitched well this season with a SIERA under four and a K rate approaching 24%. Facing a Padres offense the is bottom four in the league in wOBA, ISO, and K rate against RHP makes him one of the top SP to target today. The Mariners face a struggling Andrew Cashner who has a SIERA approaching five with a low K rate. He’s allowed a .360 wOBA to LH bats the past two seasons and the Mariners have responded by putting out a lineup with five of the top six being lefties. Those five (Aoki, Smith, Cano, Seager, and Lind) as well as the lone RH bat, Nelson Cruz, are all viable options today with Cano, Cruz, and Lind the top three of that group.

Astros-Diamondbacks game should feature some offense

With a run total of nine, the Astros-Diamondbacks game features one of the higher run totals of the day. Collin McHugh takes the mound for the Astros having shown some positive signs of late but pitching in hitter friendly Chase Field makes it tough to recommend using him. Edwin Escobar makes his big league today for the Diamondbacks facing a potent Astros offense. Jose Altuve and George Springer are the two top options from the Astros offense as both come in with .398+ wOBA’s against LHP. Carlos Correa and Marwin Gonzalez are also in play. For the Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb are the best options with Goldschmidt coming in with a .400+ wOBA against RHP. The hot hitting (.463 wOBA in last 14 days) Michael Bourn is a secondary option.

Eduardo Nunez comes in swinging hot bat

The Twins take on the A’s today and Eduardo Nunez looks to continue a recent hot streak that has seen him get 11 hits in his last four games including 2 homers. He gets a plus match up against A’s starter Kendall Graveman who has allowed a .338 wOBA to LH bats and a .357 wOBA to RH bats over the past two seasons. Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, and Robbie Grossman are also riding hot streaks and are good secondary options against Graveman. The A’s get a good match up as well against Ervin Santana but they rank among the worst in the league against RHP. Stephen Vogt and perhaps Jed Lowrie are the only A’s bats to target today.