DFS Alerts
Justin Turner not in the lineup against Jake Arrieta; Trayce Thompson returns after having two days off
Jake Arrieta is the top pitching option tonight and the Dodgers have the lowest run projection (3.07) on the slate. Arrieta has been dominant against hitters on both sides of the plate over the last two season, allowing a .230 wOBA. With Justin Turner out of the lineup, the Dodgers will have four left-handed bats atop their order. Chase Utley (.359 wOBA L14) and Adrian Gonzalez (.376 wOBA L14) are the hottest batters available but don’t have a ton of upside against Arrieta. Trayce Thompson will return to the lineup after having two days off dealing with a sore back. Thompson is batting 5th and is only $2.5K on DK. With weather possibly playing a factor, it’ll just be better to avoid the Dodgers tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adrian Gonzalez, Jake Arrieta, Justin Turner, Trayce Thompson
Tyler Duffey (14.0 K-BB%) might be a lower cost compliment on two pitcher sites
Tyler Duffey has allowed 11 ERs and 18 hits over his last 12.1 IP, but his peripherals were only poor in one of those starts. While contact has been a bit harder this year (16.3 Hard-Soft% vs 11.2% last year), his 14.0 K-BB% is more than respectable and continues the pace he set last season. He’s also pitched into the 7th inning in four of his last five starts with 5.2 innings his low mark. He faces a below average Oakland lineup in a pitcher friendly park and could serve as a lower cost compliment on two pitcher sites. The A’s have no real above average LH bats with Stephen Vogt dropping to a 102 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP this year, which might be another factor in Duffey’s favor. Danny Valencia now had a 105 wRC+ and just .100 ISO vs RHP this year as well. The one scary bat here is Khris Davis, who has just a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but a .259 ISO. He has a 212 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $4K on either site. A struggling Billy Burns has been dropped to 9th with Jed Lowrie (115 wRC+, .066 ISO vs RHP this year) being moved up to 2nd with everyone else jumping a spot behind Valencia.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Danny Valencia, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Vogt, Billy Burns
Jose Fernandez now has the top strikeout rate in baseball (36.7%) and 2nd best SwStr (15%)
Jose Fernandez has dominated his last four starts, going seven innings three times with a low of nine strikeouts and a total of three runs allowed. He’s even begun to tame a double digit walk rate with just two over his last two starts. He’s pushed his 15.0 SwStr% up to 2nd in baseball taking over the top strikeout rate in baseball at 36.7%. His 26.5 K-BB% remains behind just Kershaw and Syndergaard. Pittsburgh is a difficult and well-disciplined offense (8.7 BB% vs RHP) that could challenge is walk rate, but this is still the likely top pitcher from a strikeout standpoint tonight and that’s what matters most in daily fantasy. While several Pittsburgh RHBs hit well against RHP, Fernandez has allowed batters from that side only a .218 wOBA with a 25.5 Hard% since last season, though LHBs have been more successful (.348 wOBA, 37.3 Hard%). John Jaso (131 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) could be a contrarian bat in the $3K range, while Gregory Polanco (167 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP this year) has exploded against righties this year. These would seem the two Pittsburgh bats most likely to give Fernandez any issues, though Pittsburgh has the 3rd lowest run projection tonight (3.33).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: John Jaso, Gregory Polanco White Sox projected for just 3.17 runs (4th lowest) against Steven Matz
Steven Matz has been dominating right-handed batters this season (.219 wOBA) and the White Sox have the heart of their order hitting from that side of the plate. Matz has also been hard on left-handed bats, generating a 77.8 GB% against them at home. Matz has a 29.4 K% with a 2.36 ERA this season. The last 14 days have not been pretty for Melky Cabrera (.270 wOBA), Jose Abreu (.267 wOBA), Brett Lawrie (.243 wOBA), and Jimmy Rollins (.198 wOBA) proving that the White Sox have really been struggling over the past couple weeks. With the numbers really favoring Matz, it’ll be tough to recommend any White Sox hitters against him. Matz is the 3rd most expensive pitching option on this slate and could have a lower than usual ownership levels with Jose Fernandez and Jake Arrieta on the slate. On sites that allow for two pitchers, Matz a strong 2nd option to stack with one of the top guys, if you can find value bats elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie, Jimmy Rollins, Steven Matz With Matt Duffy out of the lineup, Giants start 6 left-handed bats against Matt Wisler
Matt Duffy took a pitch off his left wrist on Monday and will not be playing tonight. X-Rays were negative and Duffy is considered day-to-day. Hunter Pence will bat 3rd in place of Duffy and is the most expensive hitter on DraftKings ($4.3K) in the order. Matt Wisler struggles against LHB (.363 wOBA over the last 2 seasons) so we can look to attack him with some fairly priced left-handed bats. Denard Span (.329 wOBA, 111 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) and Joe Panik (.327 wOBA, 110 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) continue to be at the top of the order and are viable GPP options due to their slightly discounted price, but have their flaws as well. Span has a .122 ISO vs. RHP and Panik has a .275 wOBA over the past 14 days. The Giants currently have the 6th highest run projection (4.45) but are playing in a more pitcher-friendly environment, thus limiting their upside. Brandon Belt (.366 wOBA, .196 ISO vs. RHP) and Brandon Crawford (.343 WOBA, .220 ISO vs. RHP) are also left-handed bats that can be viable tournament options and sit at only $3.6K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy Struggling Howard dropped from cleanup, despite Ross's large platoon split (.343 wOBA vs LHBs, .226 vs RHBs)
Joe Ross has massive platoon splits through 130 career innings. LHBs have a .343 wOBA with a 16.7 K%, 38.5 GB%, and 36.8 Hard%, while RHBs have just a .226 wOBA, 24.1 K%, 57.3 GB%, 20.6 Hard% and that’s with him closing the gap slightly this season. Therefor, it makes less sense to push Cameron Rupp (69 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP since 2015) into the cleanup spot and drop a struggling Ryan Howard (51 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this season) to 5th. The Phillies have more LHBs than RHBs in their lineup with a couple of switch hitters, but there aren’t any to really be concerned about. Joe Ross is still a strong play against a weak lineup (68 wRC+ at home, 75 wRC+ vs RHP) for $8.5K or less tonight. Odubel Herrera (155 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only Philadelphia bat of interest.
Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp, Odubel Herrera Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA, but 80.9 LOB% with just an 11.8 K%
Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with an 80.9 LOB% and just an 11.8 K%. In other words, it could be and might get much worse. He has a career high 12.3 HR/FB, although, strangely, batters have just a 26.7 Hard% against him, though his batted ball profile is mostly in line with career rates (1.18 GB/FB). Yoenis Cespedes (144 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been cold (-3 wRC+ last seven days), but does have a 50.0 Hard% over the last week. More affordably, Michael Conforto (155 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP career) could do some damage here against a pitcher with a .342 wOBA against LHBs since last season. Curtis Granderson (141 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has had a rough start, but maintained his power (.225 ISO vs RHP this year) and has seen his bat start to heat up recently (117 wRC+, 38.5 Hard% last seven days). An inability to miss bats against a high power offense, should spell trouble for Latos and some daily fantasy opportunity for Mets bats.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Mat Latos Harper OUT giving a big bump to Aaron Nola, who's 6th in K-BB% and 9th in GB%
A couple of RH bats, namely Ryan Zimmermann (105 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this season) have started to come around against RHP this season, but besides Daniel Murphy (193 wRC+, .262 ISO), Bryce Harper is still the only majorly dangerous threat against RH pitching this season for Washington (87 wRC+ vs RHP). Aaron Nola has been nearly elite in his peripherals this season, in case you haven’t noticed. Even with some struggles in his most recent start, he’s generated at least a 50% GB rate in each of his last seven starts with a hard contact rate of less than 30% in each of his last three. His 22.2 K-BB% is 6th in the majors, a 56.3 GB% is 9th, while his -3.9 Hard-Soft% is 4th best. He’s top 10 in baseball in three of the things you care most about in a pitcher and has held RHBs to a .259 wOBA since entering the majors. Murphy may still be playable here in the $4K range, but Nola might have been a top pitcher tonight even before Harper was out.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman Josh Donaldson owns a 197 wRC+ against LH pitching
C.C. Sabathia has actually pitched well this season, although his ERA estimators show that some regression should be on the way. He’s still been able to rack up strikeouts at a healthy rate, but his 2.3 HR/FB% is definitely not sustainable – his lowest mark since 2011 is 12.5%. The Jays could certainly kick off the regression for the Sabathia, as they boast a bevy of tough RH bats towards the top of the order with Josh Donaldson being the most appealing of the group. He’s rocking a .458 wOBA, .298 ISO and 197 wRC+ when facing lefties so far this year, and owned similarly impressive numbers against them last season (.428 wOBA, .333 ISO, 175 wRC+). Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are strong GPP plays towards the top of this lineup, but Devon Travis may be the best target here from a dollar per point perspective. Travis doesn’t have a long track record against southpaws, but his career .393 wOBA, .242 ISO and 150 wRC+ definitely gives us something to get excited about. His $2,200 price tag in this match-up makes him an excellent value target across the board. Michael Saunders is out of tonight’s lineup while Ezequiel Carrera will draw a start in the outfield and bat 9th.
Other tagged players: Devon Travis, CC Sabathia
Smyly in prime good bounce back spot against banged up Kansas City
Drew Smyly has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts with a significant drop in his K% and SwStr%, though still above average over the last month (21.9 K%, 10.3 SwStr%). He’s allowed multiple HRs in five starts overall, but most against high power offenses, and none in his other five starts. Kansas City, both the team and the park, might provide a nice bounce back spot for him here as it’s a haven for fly ball pitchers and they have just an 80 wRC+ vs LHP, including a 24.0 Hard%. They are now missing several key bats in this lineup (although many were left-handed) and this should be a spot that favors Smyly’s skill set at a slightly reduced price on DraftKings ($8.8K). Lorenzo Cain (179 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP this season) is the lefty-masher in this lineup if you believe Smyly might continue to struggle. Paulo Orlando (166 wRC+ vs LHP this season) could be an interesting value play for $2.8K on either site.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Paulo Orlando Ben Zobrist has a 183 wRC+ vs LHP this season
Scott Kazmir walked seven Padres two starts back and followed up by striking out 12 Reds in his most recent start. Now he faces a real offense and the Cubs have a 13.1 BB% vs LHP. Unfortunately, walks don’t really drive up the daily fantasy score, so it might be tougher to find real value in a high priced lineup. Ben Zobrist, in the 5th spot, might be in the best position to provide such value though. He has a 182 wRC+ and .209 ISO vs LHP this year, along with a 217 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard% over the last week and if the walk rate does hold true, he should be in a position to drive in some runs tonight. Alternately, Dexter Fowler (121 wRC+ vs LHP this year) could be on base to score some of those runs and may get an extra opportunity in the leadoff spot. Kris Bryant (112 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP this season) has been the only other above average bat vs LHP in today’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir Stanton still out, Cole has seen his K% (19.9) and SwStr% (8.1) drop
Gerrit Cole has maintained an ERA below three, but his 19.9 K% is now below average with his 8.1 SwStr% being well below league average and that’s been a more consistent thing rather than start to start. It’s been his 5.6 HR/FB that has afforded him the 2.53 ERA. It’s difficult to call him a pitcher worthy of a $10K price tag right now or at least not one we’d expect to far exceed such a price. We’re also not keen on attacking him with a still Stanton-less Miami lineup. Christian Yelich has struggled to a -11 wRC+ and .125 ISO since returning from injury, raising questions about how healthy he really is. Derek Dietrich (142 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains in the 6th spot. Justin Bour (128 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats 5th and might be the most useful bat in this lineup for just over $3K. With the Marlins projected for just 3.67 runs, this is not an incredibly favorable daily fantasy matchup from either end.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich Gausman has pitched well, but has a large reverse split
Kevin Gausman has pitched well this season (3.24 ERA, 3.69 SIERA, 21.6 K%), but faces a tough task against the Red Sox (119 wRC+ on the road, 125 wRC+ vs RHP). He’s shown a massive reverse platoon split since last season (.361 wOBA vs RHBs, .262 wOBA vs LHBs), which may play into Boston’s hands with three RH bats all with a 110 or better wRC+ vs RHP since last season at the top of the lineup and David Ortiz (174 wRC+, .346 ISO vs RHP since 2015) pummeling all righties this year. The issue is cost with the top four all $4.5K or above on DraftKings and above $4K on FanDuel. With a middling 4.1 run projection, this might be a good fade spot due to the high prices.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman Rickard dropped to 8th, Reimold bumped up to 2nd in Eduardo Rodriguez's 2016 debut
Eduardo Rodriguez showed some promise as a rookie for Boston last year with a nearly league average 11.7 K-BB%. He’s struggled while rehabbing from a knee injury in AAA over the last month with six HRs in 28.1 innings. He struck out seven in his last start, but had struck out a total of 10 over his previous four. The Orioles don’t LHP (88 wRC+) as well as RHP, but this is still a tough 2016 debut spot for a pitcher who didn’t exactly light AAA on fire. Rodriguez allowed a .355 wOBA, 36.6 Hard% to LHBs last season, which might make Chris Davis (113 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2015) an interesting bat here. Though he fared better vs RHBs (.292 wOBA), Manny Machado (152 wRC+, .225 ISO vs LHP this year) has picked up his game against southpaws, while Mark Trumbo (133 wRC+, .463 ISO vs LHP this year) is always a power threat against a lefty at home. Nolan Reimold (121 wRC+, .161 ISO vs LHP this season) is an inexpensive OF bat ($3K or less), who moves up to 2nd in the order tonight.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Nolan Reimold, Mark Trumbo, Eduardo Rodriguez Mariners huge favorites over visiting Padres
Almost by default, Hisashi Iwakuma becomes one of the top SP options of the day because he gets the pleasure of facing the San Diego Padres. Vegas has the Mariners as -184 favorites and the Padres are projected to score just slightly more than three runs. Iwakuma has struggled this season (>.329 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate) but comes in with career numbers of <.300 wOBA allowed to both sides. If there is ever a time to turn it around, today will be that day. He has pitched better in his last five starts so there are signs that he has already started to do that. No player in the Padres starting lineup has a wOBA of >.340 against RHP. James Shields takes the mound for the Padres – he hasn’t been terrible this season with a 3.06 ERA (3.90 xFIP) and a 21.2% K rate. He’s vulnerable to LH bats (.380 wOBA allowed to them last season, .311 this season) and the Mariners have loaded their lineup with seven lefties. Robinson Cano (.442 wOBA, .364 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top option for the home team with Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz also excellent choices for your lineups today.
As reported by: Bob Dutton on Twitter Other tagged players: James Shields, Robinson Cano