DFS Alerts
Adrian Gonzalez continues to be out for the Dodgers
Gonzalez will miss his third consecutive game with a bad back and Howie Kendrick will be the cleanup hitter once again in his place. Kendrick was on a four-game hitting streak before snapping it last night but is not a strong option because he batting just .217 on the year. Joc Pederson (.424, 170 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) will be batting after Kendrick and has the ability to bring Corey Seager in, if Kendrick is not able to. Seager (.347 wOBA1, 118 wRc+ vs. RHP) is batting third, ahead of Kendrick and is the most expensive bat on FanDuel available for the Dodgers against Jhoulys Chacin. With an 18.3 Hard-Soft% and a 21.1 HR/FB%, Chacin can be a sneaky pitcher to attack with low ownership due to the low run total projection (3.62).
Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Jhoulys Chacin
Angels in play at home against rookie Ross Stripling
The Dodgers will have rookie Ross Stripling (.426 ERA, 9.2 BB%) pitching against the Angels tonight. Stripling has allowed a .341 wOBA and a 21.9 Hard-Soft% vs. RHB, making the Angels’ bats viable options tonight. Mike Trout has really started to pick it up and has 9 hits in his last 5 games, including 2 HRs. Trout (.443 wOBA, 193 wRC+ vs. RHP this season) is also the most expensive hitter available today. Albert Pujols (.179 ISO, .308 wOBA, 98 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) is also starting to pick it up and has 6 hits in his last 3 games, after struggling to start the season. Geovany Soto has been sent to the disabled list and will be out 4-6 months with a torn meniscus.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Geovany Soto Samardzija has pitched into 8th inning five times, but costs $11.8K on DraftKings
Jeff Samardzija seems rejuvenated in his new uniform. He’s pitched at least 7.2 innings in five of his eight starts with a 10.1 SwStr% and 21.0 K%. That’s a solid pitcher. And he faces the worst offense in baseball against RHP (70 wRC+). In addition, the Padres have a 59 wRC+ over the last week. Samardzija is a strong play for $9.9K on FanDuel. The issue is his $11.8K cost on DraftKings where you’re now looking for more than 25 points from him. That’s more questionable from a pitcher without an elite K%, though the Padres are at 25.1% vs RHP. Brett Wallace (141 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since last season) bats cleanup again and Samardzija has allowed LHBs a .345 wOBA since last season. His cost is below $3K on both sites. There’s little interest in any other San Diego bat, though Melvin Upton Jr. moves up to 2nd and has a 219 wRC+ over the last week (44.4 Hard%).
Other tagged players: Melvin Upton, Brett Wallace
Nova has a 68.2 GB%, but just 11.3 K% through 24 innings.
Ivan Nova has a 68.2 GB% in 24.1 IP this year, but just an 11.8 K%, though his 8.3 SwStr% suggests something higher. He has struggled with HRs in the past though, and has a 12.5 career HR/FB. Expecting a few less ground balls (50% career) and a few more strikeouts (16.9%), which nearly make him useful as a punt play if needed on DraftKings for $5.4K in a good park and you may need one if using one of the higher priced pitchers tonight. Nova has allowed a .370 wOBA to LHBs since last season, but two of the bats we want to look at are right-handed tonight. Both Khris Davis (124 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Danny Valencia (138 wRC+, .244 ISO) have hit RHP extremely well and with power since last season and both have a wRC+ above .230 over the last week. Both also have an aEV above 93 mph with an avg distance above 240 feet this year. Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .185 ISO) is the only LHB above average vs RHP with a decent spot in the lineup. The question is whether they will be able to get the ball off the ground often enough to do some damage.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Ivan Nova, Josh Reddick Chris Sale has a 1.67 ERA, but .204 BABIP with a 7.5 SwStr% or less in four of last five
Chris Sale has a 1.67 ERA that would say his new pitch to contact approach is working as he’s gone at least seven innings in seven of eight starts. His .204 BABIP, 84.9 LOB%, and 6.5 HR/FB scream regression with 3.43 SIERA and 3.63 xFIP. He has just a 7.5 SwStr% or less in four of his last five starts and costs $13.8K on DraftKings where he’d basically need a complete game to meet value. It’s good to know he still has it in him if needed and the Astros have a 25.7 K% vs LHP. He’s still one of the top pitchers on the slate and might run into a few strikeouts by accident, it’s just a question of cost with his new approach. There’s not a lot of interest in a Houston offense with the lowest run projection tonight (3.02), but prices are reduced (except for Altuve) and the top four all have a wRC+ above 125 vs RHP since last season and overall the last seven days if you’re thinking of some really outside the box tournament plays. Sale has held batters from both sides to a well below .300 wOBA since last season though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Altuve Jose Bautista the leadoff hitter against Ervin Santana
The Blue Jays will have Bautista as the leadoff hitter tonight, after batting 2nd last night. Bautista has batted 3rd for most of the season and has a 149 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP since 2015. The Blue Jays currently have the 2nd highest run projection (4.59) of the day and should be able to attack Santana with 3 RHB at the top of the order. Santana has a 9.3 hard-soft % and 13.3 HR/FB in 2016 and faces a team that is ranked in top 10 of the league at hitting home runs. Josh Donaldson has the power to hurt Santana but has a .190 AVG vs. RHP on the road this season with 12 strikeouts, making him too risky for cash games.
Other tagged players: Ervin Santana, Josh Donaldson Shields has 17 K, 17.7 SwStr% over last two starts, but Giants just 15.7K% vs RHP
James Shields has struck out 17 of his last 52 batters with a 17.7 SwStr% against the Mets and Brewers. Those are two teams with power, but they will strike out. The Giants have moderate power (10.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but just a 15.7 K% vs RHP. The top seven in the SF lineup have a wRC+ between 118 and 147 vs RHP since last season. It’s a difficult lineup to navigate, but only Brandon Crawford has an ISO above .200, though Pence and Belt sit just below in the .190s. Shields has gone at least six innings in every start with a more reasonable 13.3 HR/FB this year. He is probably not a pitcher you’re looking to build around tonight, though his recent uptick might make him viable if you find yourself in a tough spot. The Giants have an 87 wRC+ over the last week with only Span (200 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%) and Pence (173 wRC+) hitting the ball really well over that span. Like Shields, the Giants bats are viable in GPPs, but it’s probably not an offense you’re building around with no standout values among them.
Other tagged players: Denard Span, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford McHugh has a .377 BABIP this season, 15.6 K% over the last month
Collin McHugh has just a 25.2 Hard%, which is top 20 in the majors with a 19.6 LD%, so it’s a mystery how he has a .377 BABIP, but his strikeout rate and SwStr have dropped to 15.6% and 6.9% over the last month, making him easier to discard from daily fantasy consideration tonight. He’s a bit of reverse platoon guy (.337 wOBA vs RHBs, .308 wOBA vs LHBs), which would work out well with Frazier (109 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Abreu (136 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP) in the middle, but both plus Eaton are above $4K anywhere you look. Abreu also has just a 16.7 Hard% this season. If you’re looking at the cheap 2B bat in Carlos Sanchez batting 2nd, he’s a pretty awful bat (just a 61 wRC+, .096 ISo vs RHP since last season).
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Yolmer Sanchez, Collin McHugh Indians projected for the 3rd highest run total (4.5)
The Reds are throwing out right-hander Tim Adleman against the Indians. Adleman is allowing a .439 wOBA and has a 6.59 FIP vs. LHB in 2016. While the sample size is small for the rookie, we can expect him to struggle tonight against 2 left-handed bats and 3 switch-hitters. Jason Kipnis (.388 wOBA, 150 wRC+ vs. RHP) is the top bat in the lineup but also is the most expensive ($4.9k) 2B on the slate today. Kipnis has 5 HRs on the season after having only 9 all of last season. Francisco Lindor (.322 wOBA, 104 wRC+ vs. RHP) and Carlos Santana (.378 wOBA, 143 wRC+ vs. RHP) also are strong options batting 3rd and 4th respectively, but can be slightly difficult to stack if you’re using multiple high-end pitching options on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tim Adleman, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana Dozier back in leadoff spot for Twins; Estrada has an ERA over a run lower than estimators
Marco Estrada has a .241 BABIP just 19 points below his career rate and his 78.8 LOB% isn’t obscene, while he’s striking out 22.9% with a SwStr (10.4%) right on his career average, but he has a 10.1 BB% and his 7.5 HR/FB would be a career low as his ERA (2.89) runs a run and a half below his SIERA (4.20) and xFIP (4.39). As a fly ball pitcher who has allowed 29 and 24 HRs the previous two seasons in under 200 innings pitched each, players can look to target high power Twins bats at moderate prices in GPPs. Brian Dozier is back in the leadoff spot, but has unfortunately been abysmal since the 1st half of last season. We’re looking at 4th and 5th batters here: Miguel Sano (135 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) and Byung-Ho Park (136 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP). Both have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Byung-ho Park, Brian Dozier, Marco Estrada Michael Wacha has a SwStr below 6.5% in half of his eight starts
Michael Wacha has a career 7.3 HR/FB at home in a park that suppresses power, but a more ordinary mark on the road, although he has split his four HRs this season. The issue has been a drop in his K% and SwStr% below league average this year. His SwStr has been blow 8.5% in six starts and below 6.5% in half of his eight. Add in a 15.1 Hard-Soft% and it’s difficult to see how he’s maintaining a 3.23 ERA with a .319 BABIP and 70.0 LOB% that aren’t out of line and going against him if anything. The Rockies have just a 92 wRC+ on the road and 87 wRC+ vs RHP, so he’s not a terrible play for just $7.2K on DraftKings, but that might be the best we can say about him today. Carlos Gonzalez is the best bat in the lineup against RHP (142 wRC+ since 2015), but just a 99 wRC+ on the road and 0 wRC+ over the last week. Trevor Story (131 wRC+ Road, 108 wRC+ vs RHP) and Nolan Arenado (123 wRC+ Road, 128 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) are the only productive hitters away from Coors, but Arenado (0 wRC+, 21.1 Hard% last seven days) is ice cold and both cost more than $4K on either site. There is just nothing very interesting going on in this matchup at all.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story Good Harvey or bad Harvey against the Nationals
The facts on Harvey or this: he’s alternated poor and strong starts each of the last five times out, coming off a poor one in Colorado most recently. In the two quality starts, his velocity and strikeouts were in line with last season and, in fact, his SwStr% over the last month is above his career rate. His velocity in his poor starts has been down. This seems to suggest a mechanical issue rather than an injury or straight decline. We also know the Nats are a poor offense vs RHP (85 wRC+) with only Harper (199 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Murphy (134 wRC, .201 ISO vs RHP) the only above average hitters. In fact, every other bat in the lineup has a wRC+ below 90 since last season and Harvey has struck out Harper in seven of 23 PAs (no HRs) with an 84.6 mph aEV in six batted balls since last season. You could argue Harvey was a different pitcher in the past and that may be true, but we now know there is some upside in that arm, which makes him an interesting GPP play, especially on DraftKings where he appears to have his own price range (no other pitcher between $8.5K and $11.8K). The only play besides Harvey in GPPs that makes sense is Harper at a reduced cost ($4.7 on DK, $4.2 on FD).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Bryce Harper Chase D'Arnaud hits leadoff for Braves vs lefty Locke (2.3 K-BB%, 5.45 ERA)
The Braves have a 50 wRC+ with a 19.0 K-BB% and 5.6 HR/FB vs LHP, but have been nearly an average offense (93 wRC+, 20.8 K%, 8.8 HR/FB) over the last week and Jeff Locke has a 2.3 K-BB% with a 5.45 ERA this season. A 4.99 xFIP is the lowest of his three ERA estimators. This is the rare lefty who is not a daily fantasy candidate against the Braves. He has allowed batters from each side a .322 wOBA or above since last season, actually making a few Atlanta bats interesting tonight, including D’Arnaud (182 wRC+ last seven days) in the leadoff spot for $3K or less. Tyler Flowers might be just as interesting not because he has an particular ability against LHP (95 wRC+, 0.99 ISO since 2015), but he’s a Catcher batting 5th for under $3K with a 196 wRC+ over the last week against a poor pitcher.
Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Jeff Locke Strasburg has at least seven strikeouts in seven straight starts
The Mets have their every day lineup in there, though I’d question their overall health as both Duda and Wright have missed games this week with back issues. This would only help possibly the top pitcher on the slate tonight. Stephen Strasburg is throwing his new slider 21% of the time this month and it’s generated a 22.7 SwStr% in May according to Brooks Baseball, helping him to strike out at least seven in each of his last seven starts. A banged up Mets offense still has some power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP in 2016), but has just a 66 wRC+ and 27.5 K% over the last week. The biggest drawback is that Strasburg would need close to 30 points to pay off his $12.9K DraftKings price. While he is not the pitcher players want to attack, he has allowed three HRs over his last two starts and Michael Conforto (154 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) took Scherzer deep two nights ago and is now less than $3K on DraftKings, though Strasburgh has held LHBs to a .247 wOBA since last season (.311 vs RHBs).
As reported by: Brooks Baseball Other tagged players: Michael Conforto Both Votto and Bruce have a Hard% above 40 over the last week
Jay Bruce (105 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Joey Votto (156 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP) carry the same $4K (DK) and $3.6K (FD) price tags across both sites tonight and both have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. The difference is that Bruce has a 303 wRC+ to go with his 44.4 Hard%, while Votto has just a 41 wRC+ with his 45.5 Hard%. Both are viable plays against a pitcher seven HRs in six starts, but note that Tomlin has actually allowed five of those HRs to RHBs with a strong reverse platoon split (.345 wOBA vs RHBs, .221 vs LHBs since last season). The one RH bat in the lineup that has been above average vs RHP since last season is Adam Duvall (130 wRC+, .333 ISO), but he bats 7th for a cost not much below $4K. Tomlin has struggled over the last month with his K% dropping well below average this season, but it’s not very easy to find great matches against him in terms of cost and lineup spot tonight. What we’d really like to see here is Duvall and Phillips switched in the order, but have to deal with what we’re given.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Josh Tomlin, Adam Duvall