DFS Alerts

Moss and Grichuk odd men OUT of St Louis lineup vs Bettis tonight

Chad Bettis hasn’t pitched that poorly and has gone at least six innings in each of his last seven starts, but faces an offense with a 127 wRC+ vs RHP and has allowed a higher wOBA (.340) to RHBs since last year and that is bad news against this offense, which plays several RHBs that hit RHP well. Aledmys Diaz (194 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP) moves up to 7th in the order and while that’s still not optimal, you might have to look at him for $3.3K at SS on either site with all of the high priced arms on the board. Matt Holliday (130 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 190 wRC+ over the last week and is a great OF value for $3.5K (DK) or much less ($2.6K on FD). Bettis has allowed a .313 wOBA to LHBs, keeping an elite leadoff bat in Carpenter (152 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2015, 217 wRC+ last seven days) on the board if you can afford him.

Archer (23.5 HR/FB, 37.0 Hard%) still walking batters, striking out fewer

The Blue Jays have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but along with continuing to walk batters, Chris Archer now has failed to strike out more than six in any of his last three starts or six out of eight starts this season overall, along with two double digit efforts. The abundance of talent on the board today makes it easy to avoid him. His 23.5 HR/FB and 37.0 Hard% might interest players in a couple of Toronto bats though. Jose Bautista (150 wRC+ last seven days) now has the highest wRC+ (147) and ISO (.292) in the lineup against RHP since last season for $4K on DraftKings. Justin Smoak (122 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 240 wRC+ over the last week and could be the sleeper play here for just $3K on either site.

Keuchel ($7.1K on DraftKings) gets a bump with Frazier out of White Sox lineup

This is a game where the initial inclination might be to avoid completely after Dallas Keuchel was roughed up once again in his last start, but it’s difficult to judge a pitcher on a start in Boston right now and he did have his best outing of the season at home against Seattle the start just before (7 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 8 K) and has a 12.2 SwStr% over the last month. With Todd Frazier, the top RH power threat against LHP out of the lineup, Keuchel now looks GPP worthy against an average offense (102 wRC+ vs LHP) even with Frazier for $7.1K on DraftKings tonight. With Jose Abreu’s 72 wRC+, .111 ISO vs LHP since last season, none of the Chicago bats look particularly interesting at current costs.

Syndergaard has lowest aEV (85.6 mph) on today's board, 25.3 K-BB% at home since debut

Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been quite so dominant in May as the Mets have messed with his process a bit to get him deeper into games and slow down stolen bases. As a result, he hasn’t struck out more than six in any of his last three starts, but faced a tough San Francisco offense in his last home start before the last two on the west coast and he’s generally lights out at home since being called up (25.3 K-BB%). He also has the lowest aEV (85.6 mph) on the board tonight and faces a team that has been terrible against RHP (85 wRC+) and even worse than that aside from Harper and the returning Murphy. Syndergaard is one of the top pitching options on the board with the Nationals projected for just 3.11 runs tonight. Harper (200 wRC+, .352 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains an average value at a slightly reduced cost, while Murphy (135 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) has a penchant for homering off elite pitchers, but may be too costly at around the $4K mark tonight.

Stroman has top GB% in baseball, facing a Rays offense with a 26.4 K% vs RHP

Marcus Stroman generates more ground balls (62.3%) than any pitcher in baseball, helping him to succeed in a tough park, but generally sacrifices some strikeouts to do that. He’s brought his K% up to 18.2 on the season though and faces a Rays offense with a 26.4 K% vs RHP, making him more useful for daily fantasy purposes tonight, although his $11K cost on DraftKings still seems a bit excessive. Due to his ability to keep the ball out of the air so frequently, there’s little value in the Tampa Bay lineup tonight. An exception might have been Corey Dickerson (133 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but he bats 6th instead of cleanup tonight.

Scherzer faces Mets lineup without Duda tonight

Max Scherzer is coming off a 20 strikeout performance in just 119 pitches with an extra day of rest to face the coldest bats in the majors (67 wRC+ last seven days), which is saying something considering they spent the weekend in Colorado. Scherzer still has an ERA above four due to a 20.4 HR/FB (17.7 HR/FB after the All Star break last year), so there is some risk at a high cost, but Lucas Duda’s absence tonight lessens that a bit. Scherzer has one of the top upsides tonight with a 15+ SwStr% in four straight starts against an offense with a 28.3 K% over the last week. However, the Mets do have a 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP, so you can take a look at some of their lower priced bats tonight at low projected ownership in GPPs. Those include Michael Conforto (150 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Neil Walker (117 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP) both around $3K or less. Granderson (140 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP) costs a bit more and has been ice cold with a -24 wRC+, though a 45.5 Hard% over the last week. This Mets lineup does have a few HRs against Scherzer in the past, including two by Walker and Cespedes with one by Conforto all in under 20 PAs.

Blair has a -4.8 K-BB% through 20 innings

A -4.8 K-BB% is one of the worst marks you’re ever going to see. Most pitchers don’t make it much past 20 innings with that kind of ratio. The issue is that other than many walks and few Ks, he’s still held RHBs to a .260 wOBA, making it tough to discern value in a negative scoring environment at high prices. The exception might be Jung-Ho Kong (134 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), who has been on fire since returning to the lineup (257 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days). Blair has allowed a .374 wOBA to LHBs, but Polanco (115 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears just an average high cost bat and Jaso (123 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP) is a cold bat (36 wRC+, 0 Hard% last seven days), who depends on a good eye and the bats behind him to drive him in.

Nicasio draws the top matchup tonight (Braves 66 wRC+ vs RHP), but greatly struggles with LHBs (.410 wOBA)

This game offers low cost opportunity on both ends with Juan Nicasio having tonight’s top matchup against the Braves (66 wRC+, 3.5 HR/FB, 4.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Nicasio greatly struggles against LHBs (.410 wOBA since 2015) though and the Braves load the lineup with a couple of adequate ones tonight at low cost. In fact, all six LHBs in the lineup have at least a 102 wRC+ vs RHP since last year. A.J. Pierzynski (109 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is an excellent low cost catcher option in the cleanup spot tonight when the position is very weak overall. He has a 45.5 Hard% over the last week. Kelly Johnson (102 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP) is more of an average bat hitting 6th, but for below $3K. Freddy Freeman (145 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP) is more normally priced, but is the one bat that is definitely worth it and has four HRs vs Nicasio in just 17 PAs, while Markakis (117 wRC+ vs RHP) and Inciarte (116 wRC+ vs RHP) might provide some average cost value ahead of Freeman against a pitcher who struggles so greatly with LH bats. The Braves are still projected to score just 3.13 runs tonight though.

Miley has a 17.8 HR/FB this season, Orioles 16.3 HR/FB at home

Wade Miley has a 10.8 SwStr% that’s two points above his career rate, but a 4.91 ERA due to a 17.8 HR/FB, which is a candidate for serious regression, but perhaps not in Baltimore (16.3 HR/FB at home). The O’s are less potent against LHPs (95 wRC+, 12.0 HR/FB) with a couple of reverse splits bats in their lineup, but they still handle the bat about average with power mostly from the right hand side. The top bat tonight might be Mark Trumbo (134 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP since 2015) as he’s the only bat with an ISO higher than .200 vs LHP since last season, but comes at a steep price ($4.7K on DraftKings). A better look for value might be leadoff man Joey Rickard (141 wRC+ vs LHP) closer to $3K. Chris Davis (302 wRC+ last seven days) and Adam Jones (353 wRC+ last seven days) have both been red hot and handle the bat about average with some power vs LHP.

Min-cost Catcher eligible Joseph bats cleanup vs LH Chen

Wei-Yin Chen struck out 12 of 27 Brewers in his last outing with his highest average velocity of the season, near last year’s levels, but preceded that by striking out ZERO of these Phillies through five innings and has been a difficult pitcher to figure out. He does have an 11.2 career HR/FB and 0.98 GB/FB, making him a difficult start often in small parks without high strikeout upside. The Phillies are terrible (65 wRC vs LHP), so you might make an exception, but there are plenty of tremendous pitchers on the board tonight. That also means you’re going to need to look into some low cost bats to afford them and Tommy Joseph has just seven major league PAs in two games this week, but he’s a Catcher eligible bat hitting cleanup for the minimum cost, which makes him an automatic punt consideration at a tough position tonight. Carlos Ruiz (153 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might be the stronger bat behind him at a much higher cost though. Maikel Franco (122 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP) is a moderately priced power threat.

Kevin has sent out an update to his initial report a little earlier tonight. Luckily, there doesn’t seem much to be concerned with aside from a potential late start or two. You can read the full report on our Weather Page, linked below and make sure to keep an eye on his Twitter feed (@KevinRothWx) for further updates as needed today.

Carlos Gomez placed on the 15 day disabled list

Gomez injured himself diving into second base recently further aggravating an injured rib cage and today the Astros placed him on the 15 day disabled list. 3B prospect Colin Moran will be called up and Jake Marisnick should be in line for more at bats with Gomez gone. No official time table yet on Gomez’s return but he was struggling so expect the team to take their time bringing him back into the fold.

Fielder and Moreland sit against lefty Manaea

Sean Manaea is a top Oakland prospect who has struggled in his first few starts (11.37 ERA, 7.02 FIP, 16.1 K%), but Oakland has few choices to replace him. Texas is an average offense that downgrades in run environment tonight and though Fielder and Moreland both sit tonight, the Ranges still have two LHBs in the top three with weak hitting Elvis Andrus (105 wRC+, .145 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in between. There’s not a whole lot to interest players either way in this one aside from two middle of the order bats that could provide some value around the $4K mark. Adrian Beltre (147 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats cleanup, while Ian Desmond (127 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP since last year) seems to have found his stroke (213 wRC+, .36.4 Hard% over the last week) and bats 5th.

Brian McCann gets the day off with Austin Romine starting at catcher; Brett Gardner also not in the lineup

Jacoby Ellsbury will be the leadoff batter for the second consecutive game and Starlin Castro will be batting after him, after batting 6th last night. Starlin Castro has a .356 and 126 wRC+ vs. LHP this season and has walked 11.8% of the time on the road against LHP. Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira also switch from last night, with Beltran now the cleanup hitter and Teixeira batting 3rd. Beltran has a .332 wOBA, 109 wRC+, and .262 ISO against LHP this season and could feast in a hitter-friendly park. Robbie Ray has allowed a .390 wOBA to RHB and walks 9.6% of the batters he faces.

Maeda has struggled last few starts; Cron sits in NL park

Kenta Maeda generated a chase rate above 36% in four of his first five starts, but hasn’t exceeded 30% in either of his last two in which he has allowed 10 ERs and eight walks in 17.2 innings with 15 strikeouts. This may be where he needs to adjust and the Angels have just a 16.0 K% vs RHP, making them a difficult team to roster a pitcher against at a high price. The ERA (2.30) still looks low due to an 89.7 LOB%, but this might not be a spot with a lot of upside for a pitcher we may have to rethink. While the Angels have made contact often, it hasn’t been impressive contact all that often. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP) is the only batter with a wRC+ above 120 vs RHP since last season and Albert Pujols (114 wRC+, .223 ISO) is the only other one with an ISO above .200. Note the C.J. Cron sits in the NL park. Kole Calhoun (116 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only other bat worth considering with a 171 wRC+ over the last week.