DFS Alerts
Could be surprising pitching options in MIA-PHI game today
The run total is modest at 8 runs with both teams expected to score close to 4 runs apiece. Tom Koehler starts for the Marlins and while he has been underwhelming this season he gets the benefit of facing a woeful Phillies lineup (28th in team wOBA vs RHP) and is in consideration as a punt SP option, especially on the four game early only slate. His counterpart, Jeremy Hellickson, has been outstanding this season with a 3.49 SIERA and 24.9% K rate. The Marlins aren’t the best match up (8th in team wOBA and 5th in K rate against RHP) but Hellickson is a definite sleeper option at the SP position today. Hitters from both teams are secondary options today. From the Marlins we can look to their usual left-handed bats (Dietrich, Yelich, and Bour) as well as the always intriguing and powerful Giancarlo Stanton. The Phillies provide a bunch of low priced options and you can plug some in and hope they pay off – David Lough, Cesar Hernandez, Andres Blanco, Ryan Howard, Maikel Franco are all viable with the latter three being the preferred targets.
As reported by: Clark Spencer on Twitter Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Andres Blanco, Tom Koehler
Hunter Pence and Buster Posey look to attack Colin Rea at Petco Park
The Giants play in a pitcher-friendly park in a game that is only projected for 7 total runs by both teams. Still, Colin Rea shows a bit of a weakness to right-handed bats, allowing a .381 wOBA at home to them. Buster Posey has a .352 wOBA vs. RHP and is a viable tournament option on FanDuel with his salary set at $3,400. Hunter Pence (.376 wOBA, .201 ISO vs. RHP) should also be considered in GPPs because he is expected to have a low ownership % with his salary hitting $3,900 on FD.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Colin Rea
Jesse Hahn could keep the Rangers' bats in check at home
Hahn has 76.5 GB% and 11.8 FB% at home this season with a 22.2 K% against LHB and a 1.60 FIP. The Rangers will throw four left-hand bats at the RHP but they do not have much appeal in Oakland. Prince Fielder will return after sitting out on Monday, but he has been struggling all season and now is only $2.6k on FanDuel. Mitch Moreland also did not play on Monday and will be batting 6th behind Fielder. Moreland (.339 wOBA, 109 wRC+) still deserves some consideration because he has been consistent all season and his salary has fallen $500 on DK, giving us a viable value option.
Other tagged players: Prince Fielder, Jesse Hahn Bumgarner has his lowest SwStr% (10.2) in four years, but Padres have a 25.1 K% vs LHP
Madison Bumgarner walked four in his last effort against the Blue Jays, but has gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts with a slight velocity uptick in his last three. He also just snapped a string of six starts with at least seven strikeouts. He already has one strong start against the Padres, who aren’t awful vs LHP (96 wRC+, 13.9 HR/FB), but with a 25.1 K%. There’s some skepticism about Bumgarner’s 28.0 K% with just a 10.2 SwStr% (his lowest in four years), but he should be fine tonight, though he is priced higher than guys like Syndergaard and Scherzer (on FanDuel). This may make him under-owned, but it’s also questionable how much value he can provide at that cost. There’s no interest in the San Diego bats projected for one of the lowest run totals tonight (3.05) in this one.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds
Kershaw (0.77 FIP, 17.3 SwStr% last 30 days) is the top pitcher tonight
Clayton Kershaw is on a historic 30 day stretch where he’s struck out 39% of the batters he’s faced with a 17.3 SwStr%. His 1.80 ERA actually runs well higher than his estimators, including a 0.77 FIP. He is the highest priced pitcher tonight and probably still one of the top values even against an offense with just a 13.7 K% vs LHP. It should be fun to watch him face Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but even at a reduced cost he’s an average value at best in such a tough matchup. Kershaw has held LHBs and RHBs alike to a .225 wOBA since last season and the Angels have the lowest projected run total (2.18) by far.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mike Trout Gonzalez and Grandal OUT of the lineup against Jered Weaver
Jered Weaver (6.10 ERA, 5.02 SIERA, 14.0 K%, 22.7 Hard-Soft%) is a pitcher we’re looking to target tonight. He has allowed batters from either side a .340+ wOBA and Adrian Gonzalez’s absence from tonight’s lineup may actually present opportunity on a night where we’re looking for low cost bats, though Grandal takes a top catcher off the board. Justin Turner (130 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) has been cold, but hits RHP well at a low cost. Corey Seager (140 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP) is the high cost SS option for those going cheaper on pitching tonight. The really interesting name might be Trayce Thompson, batting 6th for near $3K. He homered twice last night and now has a 136 wRC+ and .229 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Trayce Thompson, Justin Turner, Jered Weaver Jaime Garcia has a 60.0 GB% this season and a 24.1 K%, 6.3 HR/FB at home since last season
Jaime Garcia is coming off two quality starts (14 IP – 6 H – 2 R (0 ER) – 1 BB – 13 K – 49 BF) and is one of two pitchers in baseball (and on today’s board) with a 60% ground ball rate and above average K% (26.8). The difference is that unlike Hendricks, he’s finished seven innings three times this season, including each of his last two starts. He’s been very strong at home since last season (24.1 K%, 6.3 HR/FB) and though the Rockies aren’t a complete cake walk on the road this season (96 wRC+) it’s no worse than a neutral matchup here. Garcia may be the best pitching option on the board for less than $10K tonight and a good pivot if you’re looking for more offensive firepower in your lineup. There are two strong bats vs LHP in this batting order in Trevor Story (182 wRC+, .400 ISO vs RHP), who should still be considered at a tough position and Ryan Raburn (179 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who can be looked at for salary relief at less than $3K if going with more expensive pitchers, though with risk he is removed late in the game. No other Colorado bat has a wRC+ above 110 vs LHP since last year. Colorado has the 3rd lowest run projection tonight (2.93).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Raburn, Trevor Story Twins projected for 3rd highest run total (4.70) against Mike Pelfrey
The Twins have some nice value bats available today against Mike Pelfrey, and will be needed on a slate with so many high-end pitching options. Pelfrey (4.54 ERA, 5.15 SIERA, 1.54 WHIP) faces a hot Twins lineup, that has scored an average of 6.25 runs in their last four games. Pelfrey sports a 12.1K% (2nd lowest of all pitchers available) and walks 10.2% of his batters in 2016. Jorge Polanco is batting 2nd and only cost $2.4k on FD. Polanco (.204 wRC+, .464 wOBA vs. RHP) has also walked 16.7% of his at-bats against right-handers. The Twins are sending out seven batters that are sub-3k on FanDuel, making it easy to stack them with Miguel Sano and/or Byung-Ho Park. Sano has a .366 wOBA and .230 ISO vs. RHP and has recorded 15+ fpts in 4 out of his last 5 games, with a high of 25.2 fpts last night. Park has a .447 wOBA in his last 14 games and will be the cleanup hitter for the third consecutive game.
Other tagged players: Byung-ho Park, Jorge Polanco, Mike Pelfrey Cole Hamels has struck out nine in each of last two starts
Cole Hamels has struggled with inconsistencies in his walk and strikeout rate along with HRs, but does have elite upside when he puts it all together as he has in each of last two starts with 18 strikeouts combined and a small increase in velocity. He has little platoon split, allowing no better than a .300 wOBA to batters from either side and faces an offense that doesn’t strike out a lot, but has just an 81 wRC+ and 3.9 BB% vs LHP. He could go under-owned for just over $10K in a strong matchup in a pitcher’s park. Danny Valencia (144 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP since last season) has a 438 wRC+ and 63.6 Hard% over the last week and would seem the one bat with value at $3.5K or less in the cleanup spot.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia Red hot Herrmann (190 wRC+, 77.8 Hard% last seven days) moved to 2nd with Drury OUT
The Diamondbacks get both their catcher eligibles in tonight’s lineup with the most interesting move being Chris Herrmann (90 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) batting 2nd. He has a 190 wRC+ and 77.8 Hard% over the last week and is a good value at close to $3K on either site. Michael Pineda has struggled with little platoon split since last season (.340 wOBA vs RHBs, .337 wOBA vs LHBs), but still has a 13.2 SwStr% and all of his nine HRs have come at home. Arizona isn’t a much more favorable park, but it’s not exactly the RF home run haven Yankee Stadium is. Over his last two starts, Pineda has increased his ground ball rate (18 total) with exactly a 20.0 Hard%. Arizona has just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP and despite a tough run environment, don’t have many imposing bats in the lineup. Jake Lamb (111 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the only other even average bat vs RHP since last season besides Goldschmidt (150 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) with Brandon Drury out tonight. Pineda is high risk, but is likely to be low owned against an offense that exploded last night.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Michael Pineda, Jake Lamb Red hot Bradley moved up to 7th; Ventura still can't find the plate
Jackie Bradley Jr. (125 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 234 wRC+ out of the 9th spot in the lineup over the last week and gets a small bump up two spots, but it’s a start and may get him an extra opportunity tonight. Being that far down the lineup for $4K still makes him a difficult roster, but he should get his chances against a pitcher that can no longer find the plate (-1.2 K-BB% in 2016) in Yordano Ventura. The Red Sox have a 131 wRC+ vs RHP this season and a 183 wRC+ over the last week, though only a middling 3.67 run projection tonight. Regardless, David Ortiz (172 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top 1B option tonight, though maybe not a top value for almost $5K on DK and $4K on FD. He has a 253 foot avg distance on batted balls and 95 mph aEV this year with a 193 wRC+ over the last week. It’s likely just a question of where the walks and hits fall in this lineup as walks are great for real baseball, but less valuable in a daily fantasy setting. Having those walks out on the bases when the player you roster is batting is very valuable though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jackie Bradley, Yordano Ventura Kyle Hendricks has a 61.9 GB% and 21.8 K%; Santana dropped from leadoff spot
Kyle Hendricks has a 61.9 GB% and 21.8 K% with a 1.0 Hard-Soft%. That’s elite stuff except for the fact that he hasn’t finished seven innings once in six starts, though he’s completed at least six in four of his outings. This is likely the only thing keeping his cost below $9K because there’s only one other pitcher with a GB rate above 60% and K% above 20 (he’s pitching today too). The Brewers have a lot of power 17.2 HR/FB, but that should be mitigated in a tough park with a dominant ground ball rate and they also have a 26.2 K% vs RHP. If you’re looking to drop down in cost, Hendricks may be the top option below $9K in rate stats. It’s just a question of length. With the expected difficulty in elevating the ball, Milwaukee bats really aren’t on the radar at moderate costs.
Tigers look to tee off tonight against Phil Hughes
Phil Hughes (4.79 ERA, 4.36 SIERA) has allowed 2.10 HR/9 to RHB this season. With the 2nd highest projected run total for tonight (4.90), we can expect them to be one of the top owned stacks, outside of the Cubs. Miguel Cabrera has a .401 wOBA and .192 ISO vs. RHP and has also hit 6 HRs against Hughes in his career. Cabrera is the most expensive bat on FanDuel in Detroit, which opens up the need for some value with so many elite pitchings options also available. J.D. Martinez is also a strong option as he has been hitting well over his last six games. Martinez had 2 HRs last night and has a .356 wOBA vs. RHP.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Phil Hughes David Wright scratched on Tuesday
Matt Reynolds will now start at 3B and bat ninth, while Asdrubal Cabrera will move up to the #2 spot in the order. Wright is dealing with back tightness which may end up holding him out for another day or two. The Mets are still an offense to avoid with Max Scherzer on the hill for Washington, and this news only further increases Scherzer’s ceiling.
As reported by: Marc Carig Other tagged players: Matt Reynolds, Asdrubal Cabrera, Max Scherzer
Cubs projected for top run total (5.2) against Chase Anderson
Chase Anderson (6.11 ERA, 5.96 FIP, 16.8 K%, 20.0 HR/FB, 22.3 Hard-Soft%) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and faces one of the best offenses in a very positive run environment. The Cubs will be a popular stack for those that can afford them, but that’s a key question with all of the elite pitching on the board, so we’ll try to pick out just the most attractive bats, as none of the five batters with a 110 or better wRC+ vs RHP since last season (the top five) are cheap. Anthony Rizzo (154 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat and most expensive, but also leads the team with a 162 wRC+ on the road since last season. This is probably the bat to pay up for if you can only afford one. The other option, just slightly cheaper, would be #3 hitter Kris Bryant (138 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP), although a bit less potent away from Wrigley (102 wRC+). If going cheap on pitching, a Cubbies stack looks strong tonight even through Addison Russell (250 wRC+ last seven days) batting 6th.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Chase Anderson