DFS Alerts

Puig and Turner OUT vs HR prone Shoemaker

Matt Shoemaker has become a hard hit (35.8%) and HR (17.1 HR/FB) machine, who hasn’t made it past his the fourth inning in any of his last three starts. The Dodgers have been a major offensive disappointment, but do have a 20.0 HR/FB over the last week. Two of their RH power bats (Turner and Puig) are out tonight, but we can look to a few of the LH ones with against a pitcher with a .320 or worst wOBA allowed to batters from both side since last season. Corey Seager (141 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP) has caught fire (260 wRC+, 54.6 Hard% last seven days) and looks to be the top overall SS bat tonight, while Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since last year) is a good value at Catcher. Adrian Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015) brings a normally steady bat with power to First Base.

Kevin Roth explains why the MIN DET could be delayed but is unlikely to be postponed. BOS KCR has already been officially PPD. Check out his full weather report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Chad Green makes his major league debut in Arizona

Chad Green is making his major league debut just a couple of weeks shy of his 25th birthday. He is a non-prospect, but has struck out 24.3% of batters, while walking 8.1% in 37 AAA innings this season and has progressed steadily through the minors since 2013. The Arizona lineup is a bit bare with Michael Bourn batting 2nd and no Peralta and you wouldn’t need much for the cost of a bullpen arm ($4K on DK, $3K on FD), but this (like Yankee Stadium) is a tough run environment to make your first start in. Paul Goldschmidt is not having his usual season, but still has a 149 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since last season. The value play in this lineup might be Jake Lamb at cleanup (106 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with a 47.6 Hard% over the last week. If you are thinking of going deeper to the 6th or 7th spot on a short slate, Brandon Drury (116 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) for $3.1K or less and Chris Herrmann (159 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% over the last week) for $3.3K or less might at Catcher might be of interest. Arizona has the top run projection tonight (4.83), but that may be due to limited information on the debuting pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays have eight right-handed bats in the lineup against J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ has allowed a .304 wOBA to RHB so far this season and has a 4.53 SIERA. Happ has an unsustainable LOB% (89.9%) combined with a low K% (15.7%) in this young season, making him a pitcher we can attack with Brandon Guyer and Evan Longoria. Guyer has a wOBA of .504 over his last 14 games and has been hitting the ball consistently well against LHP as well, with a wOBA of .424 and a 114 wRC+ on the season. Evan Longoria has a .341 wOBA nad 121 wRC+ vs. LHP and is batting .375 against Happ with three XBH in 24 at-bats. Taylor Motter and Steve Pearce should also be considered in a Rays stack. Motter is a minimum salaried player that will be making his major league debut, which could allow for more flexibilty on your rosters. He does come with considerable risk because he was batting only .190 in the minors but has the speed to get a stolen base if he gets on. Pearce, hitting 4th in the lineup, has an ISO vs. LHP of .221 this season and a wOBA of .427 in his last 14 games. Pearce has also hit three home runs in his 24 career at-bats against Happ. The Rays have a team ISO of .197 vs. LHP and have relatively cheap bats that will likely be under-owned with a 3.85 projected run total in Toronto.

Valencia has been on fire (538 wRC+ since returning), reclaims cleanup spot

Danny Valencia has a 538 wRC+ with a 60.0 Hard% in the few days since his return from the disabled list. He hit five HRs in the weekend series and has a 146 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP since last season. Costing less than $3.5K on either site, he’s probably the top value on the board against Derek Holland (6.09 ERA, 5.23 SIERA, 13.1 K%), who has allowed a .361 wOBA to RHBs since last season. Oakland does not have the top run projection (4.39), but none of their batters cost above $4K and very few above $3.5K against such a poor pitcher, although in a difficult run environment. Khris Davis has just an 85 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, but a .206 ISO. One interesting bat to look at is Marcus Semien, who bats 7th, but at a tough position. He has a 150 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP since last season and could surpass his $2.4K price on FanDuel in fewer opportunities.

The Red Sox and Royals have been postponed due to weather. Remove all of these players from your lineup.

Zimmermann has a career low 14.6 K% with an ERA two runs below his estimators

Jordan Zimmermann has a career low 14.6 K% and has struck out three or fewer in three of his last four starts. His 1.50 ERA is three runs below his SIERA (4.67) and xFIP (4.62) due to an 88.1 LOB%. This is cause for concern as $10K would seem a lot to risk on batted ball outcomes in this spot. He has struck out more than four twice this season and once was against these Twins (7 IP – 7 K) and they are a below average offense (91 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), so there is some precedent for strong performance, but it’s an exorbitant cost for such a low strikeout rate otherwise. Minnesota bats are likely to be low owned, so there may be value in looking at a couple tonight. Byung-Ho Park has had a strong start to his major league career against RHP (155 wRC+, .340 ISO) as has Miguel Sano (133 wRC+, .230 ISO).

Smyly has a 27.1 K%, but five HRs vs Toronto in two starts in Tampa Bay this season

Drew Smyly has allowed five of 11 fly balls to leave the yard in two starts against the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay this season. This is definitely a rough spot, but he still has a 27.1 K% against them and probably the highest strikeout upside of any pitcher tonight. Good LHPs have handled the Blue Jays at home this season and they have just a 101 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ vs LHP with average HR/FB rates. The issue would be that Smyly generates air contact 43% of the time over his career and over 50% of the time this season. Nothing is low risk tonight, but this is probably still the best overall daily fantasy pitcher on the board tonight and one you can consider building a few lineups around. That doesn’t mean we don’t want some Josh Donaldson (187 wRC+, .335 ISO vs LHP since 2015) exposure in non-Smyly lineups at a reduced cost though. He now has three career HRs off Smyly (15 PA) with a 102.1 mph aEV on five batted balls since last season. In fact, all of the Blue Jays are reduced in price going against a top pitcher this season and the top six all may represent decent value at well below $4K on DK with the HR potential here. Smoak and Tulowitzki both have a wRC+ above 240 over the last week.

Berrios has struggled in three major league starts, but is still missing bats

Jose Berrios has struggled through three starts (14.1 major league innings) with eight walks and four HRs, but is an elite pitching prospect with high strikeout rates throughout the minors and an 11.0 SwStr%, 28.8 K% through his first few starts. Although he might run a bit expensive on DraftKings tonight ($8K), this is the kind of upside players may want to take a risk on when there aren’t many other pitchers available with this kind of upside. In addition, the Tigers have struggled offensively at home (87 wRC+, 24.8 K%) and strike out 24.5% of the time vs RHP. Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (126 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are still strong values for less than $4K here if Berrios is not a risk you want to take.

Porcello has a 24. K%, but just a 7.5 SwStr%.

Rick Porcello has allowed just one HR over his last four starts and has a 24.9 K%, looking like an improved pitcher this year. However, he has just a 7.5 SwStr% (below 6.5% in each of his last three starts) this year and still a 14.4 HR/FB since being traded to Boston, though the BABIP has dropped (60 points) and the LOB% has risen (11 points) from career rates this season. Better? Probably. Worth $10K on DraftKings now? Probably not, especially against a team that strikes out a below average amount (19.2% vs RHP) even if more than last season. Eric Hosmer (149 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is having a strong year with the bat and is someone we still want to consider as Porcello is hittable. Kendrys Morales (118 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is struggling, but an inexpensive bat in the middle of the order coming off a strong season. Be sure to check Kevin Roth’s late update as this game carried some risk in the early report.

Braves are the worst offense on the road (55 wRC+) and vs LHP (40 wRC+)

Jon Niese has been awful this year (5.63 ERA, 4.58 SIERA, 16.0 K%) and it’s very difficult to find many good things to say about him, so we’ll leave it at just one. He’s allowed just one of his 10 HRs in his three home starts this year. Pittsburgh is a great park for LHPs because it kills RHP, an area in which Atlanta is already legally dead in any park. Add in a 25.9 K% to their 2.5 HR/FB vs LHP and it makes just about any lefty playable at a below average cost. There are no Atlanta bats that draw much interest in this negative run environment, but strong stomached players could consider using Niese as a complement on two pitcher sites on a short and weak slate. Atlanta still has the 2nd lowest run projection tonight (3.39) against one of the worst pitchers in the league this year.

Red hot Bradley moved up to 7th; Ventura still can't find the plate

Jackie Bradley Jr. (125 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 263 wRC+ out of the 9th spot in the lineup over the last week and gets a small bump up two spots, but it’s a start and may get him an extra opportunity tonight. Being that far down the lineup for $4K still makes him a difficult roster, but he should get his chances against a pitcher that can no longer find the plate (-1.2 K-BB% in 2016) in Yordano Ventura. The Red Sox have a 131 wRC+ vs RHP this season and a 189 wRC+ over the last week, though only a middling 3.89 run projection tonight. Regardless, David Ortiz (172 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top 1B option tonight, though maybe not a top value for over $5K on DK and $4K on FD. He has a 253 foot avg distance on batted balls and 95 mph aEV this year with a 226 wRC+ over the last week. It’s likely just a question of where the walks and hits fall in this lineup as walks are great for real baseball, but less valuable in a daily fantasy setting. Having those walks out on the bases when the player you roster is batting is very valuable though. It’s also important to note this was Kevin Roth’s biggest risk spot in the early weather report, so make sure to check that out on our Weather Page and look for his update about an hour before games lock tonight.

Freese replaces Marte in cleanup spot vs Williams Perez

David Freese replaces Starling Marte (paternity list) in the cleanup spot, while Matt Joyce replaces him in the OF tonight against Williams Perez, who went eight strong against the Phillies as a last minute replacement in his last start, but has totaled 12.1 innings with more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in his other three starts. He’s been average vs RHBs (.311 wOBA) since his callup last year, but gotten hammered by LHBs (.373 wOBA). Unfortunately, the Pirates don’t have many LHBs, but the two at the top are decent plays. John Jaso (123 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) would be the value play for $3.5K or less at the top of the lineup, while Gregory Polanco (114 wRC+ vs RHP) remains aggressively priced for his output to this point. Matt Joyce is in a good spot batting 6th, but has just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP since last year without a great discount. Andrew McCutchen (139 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a normally matchup and handedness proof OF bat, but is also very aggressively priced in a tough park. He has been hot (194 wRC+ last seven days) and retains a 253 foot average distance on batted balls this year.

Eickhoff has better estimators than his ERA, but has struggled vs LHBs.

Jerad Eickhoff has struggled in recent starts, striking out just four of his last 45 batters, showing just a 1.3 SwStr% in his last start, but has decent overall major league numbers so far with an ERA above his estimators due to 65.9 LOB% this season. He’s pitched better at home (2.78 xFIP since being called up last year) and maybe finds what he needs tonight after three of his last four on the road. On a difficult night to find pitching value, this is one concerning, but viable arm to look into for a below average cost. He has allowed a .371 wOBA to LHBs so far though, meaning we really want to look at top and middle of the order batters for the Marlins strongly, starting with Derek Dietrich (139 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Justin Bour (127 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) at value prices below $4K on either site. Christian Yelich (132 wRC+ vs RHP) costs a bit more, but adds a 94 mph aEV this year, which would help if he could elevate the ball more often. Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .295 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains playable vs RHP, though he’s very expensive and Eickhoff has kept RHBs to a .218 wOBA.

Phillies have 64 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs LHP

The Phillies are only the 2nd worst home offense (68 wRC+, 23.4 K%) and vs LHP (64 wRC+, 24.1 K%) because the Braves exist. They are likely the 2nd best matchup too tonight, making an inconsistent Adam Conley one of the top available pitchers on a weak and short slate. He’s allowed four runs in three starts and none in three others with walks and strikeout numbers all over the place. There is at least some consistency in a 9.5 SwStr% in six of seven starts. He’s occasionally been hit hard (35.1 Hard%), but even that number has only been above 30% in one of his last four starts and his aEV for the season is a modest 88 mph. If we’re looking at Philly bats, we probably shouldn’t because Conley has exhibited a reverse platoon split, holding RHBs to a .293 wOBA in his career, but Tommy Joseph may be a punt at Catcher for no other reason than he’s batting 5th at the minimum cost. Carlos Ruiz has a 158 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP since last season and is more affordable on FanDuel, while it’s difficult to pay up $3.7K on DK for even a cleanup hitter in a barren lineup.