DFS Alerts

Colin Rea has reverse split last two seasons (.375 wOBA vs RHBs), as does Cespedes

Colin Rea has pitched like a fifth starter with a 17.6 K% and an ERA with estimators in the mid-four range. RHBs (.375 wOBA) have handled him more easily than LHBs (.287 wOBA) the last two seasons. That makes Yoenis Cespedes (147 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the most attractive bat in the lineup, though Michael Conforto (157 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) still holds value at nearly $1K less on DraftKings. Petco has a similar run environment to Citi Field in NY with HRs just a bit tougher to come by, though it’s not the death sentence to power hitters it once was. Lucas Duda (131 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) can hit them out of any park and usually in bunches when he gets hot and he has hit several this week. Curtis Granderson (145 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP) has some value for $3.2K on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot. The two through six batters in the NY lineup all have an average batted ball distance of at least 235 feet this year.

Hunter Pence OUT tonight against LHP Rusin

Chris Rusin will be making his second start of the season tonight against the Giants in AT&T park. Rusin pitched pretty well in his last start, allowing 0 ER in 5 IP while walking 3 and striking out 6. He’s not likely to pitch deep into this ballgame, 5-6 IP would most likely be his maximum. So while he owns a respectable 22.4K% and 3.21 SIERA, he is better suited as a deep GPP play. On the Giants side of things, Buster Posey (.403 wOBA – .233 ISO – 163 wRC+ career vs lefties) crushes LHP and should be considered the top catching option on the slate. Hunter Pence (rest) will sit this one out and Brandon Crawford will move up to the fifth spot. But besides Pence, there isn’t a whole lot to like with the SFG options tonight. It may be wise to look elsewhere for your position player selections.

Kevin’s late forecast gives us one potential problem area in San Diego that doesn’t look too bad right now, but with too much time between now and first pitch to know for sure. It’s a difficult spot that might take the top pitcher off the board for the risk averse, but the update is a must read if you’re considering deGrom tonight. You can do so on our Weather Page, linked below.

deGrom has lost velocity, but still getting results

Jacob deGrom has blamed his lost velocity on a shorter off-season, but while an over two mph decline hasn’t hurt his results yet, he’s faced the Phillies and Braves in two of his first three starts and now gets a third of the four worst offenses vs RHP this season. The Padres have struck out 26% of the time with a 66 wRC+ vs RHP and deGrom is still varying speeds enough with five pitches all thrown at least 10% of the time to garner a 12.1 SwStr% and an 83.3 mph average exit velocity that’s 5th best in baseball among those with at least 30 batted balls. He may have issues down the road if this continues, but for tonight he should be fine against a poor offense and may even still be the top pitcher on a weak board. There’s no interest in the San Diego bats with the lowest projected run total tonight (2.75) aside from potentially one cheap one at cleanup. Brett Wallace has a 151 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since last season and a 243 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% when getting a bit of a chance overall this last week.

Chris Devenski makes his second career start tonight against the Mariners

Devenski will make his second start of the season tonight against the Mariners. In his previous start, he allowed 2 ER in 5 IP with 3 BB and 4 SO. While his minor league numbers suggest that he can miss some bats, he isn’t likely to pitch deep into games. But with his cheap price tag ($4.7K on DK) he may be worth a flier in GPP’s. According to Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs: “He has a very outside chance of working into a number-five starter role, but the rest of his arsenal likely won’t give him enough to work with going through a lineup multiple times.”
With a Vegas projected run total of 4.16, the Mariners lineup features a few bats that could be targeted this evening. Robinson Cano (.492 wOBA – .418 ISO vs RHP this season) is off to a scorching hot start and is one of the top 2B plays of the night. Nelson Cruz (.231 ISO vs RHP) has power upside, and makes for a solid GPP play. Finally, Kyle Seager (.346 wOBA – 124 wRC+ vs RHP) serves as an appealing 3B option that may be slightly under owned in tournaments given his matchup.

Brett Lawrie has been hot (311 wRC+ last seven days), hits LHP well (134 wRC+)

Henry Owens has walked and struck out seven through two starts with an 88 mph fastball and now owns a 4.62 FIP/4.60 ERA through 72.1 major league innings. Batters from either side have hit him well. Brett Lawrie may be the top Chicago bat vs LHP with a 134 wRC+ and .190 ISO since last season. He also has a 311 wRC+ over the last week and doesn’t project to be highly owned in the 6th spot with an average price tag. The other hot bat in the lineup is Jose Abreu (282 wRC+ last seven days), but he’s been a reverse platoon player with just a 77 wRC+, .119 ISO vs LHP since last season. Todd Frazier carries a 127 wRC+ and .321 ISO vs LHP since 2015 and carries a similar cost to the previous two on DraftKings at around $4K. This is a spot where neither the offense or opposing pitcher shine brightly.

Astros line up nine RH bats against Miley

Wade Miley has allowed a .334 wOBA to RHBs while suppressing LHBs (.295), so it makes sense that Houston would go entirely RH against him. While he has ERA estimators a run below his 5.06 ERA, this is a tough spot against a team with power for a pitcher who has allowed his share of HRs. The Astros have a 122 wRC+ vs LHP and 13.9 HR/FB at home. Though down in the order, Marwin Gonzalez (138 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is always an interesting value play for below $3K and has even homered off Miley once in seven opportunities. Although Jose Altuve (172 wRC+ vs LHP) is expensive, the rest of the top three (Springer – 170 wRC+ vs LHP, Correa – 139 wRC+ vs LHP) are always strong plays against southpaws at more affordable prices. Miley is not the worst pitcher, but the top of the lineup is worth a look for Houston.

Kyle Hendricks owns a 2.98 xFIP and 3.03 SIERA, faces the Nationals at home tonight

On a slate where there is such a drop off in pitching options after deGrom, Kyle Hendricks could possible be the next best option. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher (20.7K%), but he owns a SIERA of just 3.03 and an xFIP of 2.88. Tonight he will take the Nationals, who collectively have struggled against RHP this season. They rank in the bottom third of offenses against righties, owning an 82 wRC+ and .302 wOBA while facing them. If Hendricks can work around Bryce Harper (.412 wOBA – .375 ISO – 153 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016), he should be in for a very solid outing tonight. Consider Hendricks the top SP2 option on DraftKings and a serviceable play if deciding to fade deGrom on Fanduel.

Gardner, Rodriguez, Headley all out for NY vs Gausman

The Yankees are shaking up a struggling offense against a pitcher with talent beyond his results so far in his major league career. Gausman does have a 17.9 K-BB% at home since last season and his 15.9 K-BB% through two starts this season is almost exactly on par with his 2015 numbers. This is a pitcher with some upside for below $7K facing an under-achieving offense (84 wRC+ vs RHP) without a few key bats. He’s an interesting compliment to a higher priced pitcher on two pitcher sites in GPPs. Jacoby Ellsbury is the hottest NY bat (230 wRC+ over the last week), but has just an 83 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP since last season. Brian McCann is the only player in this lineup who combines a hot bat (166 wRC+ last seven days) with even an average one vs RHP (110 wRC+, .205 ISO since last season). Mark Teixeira (146 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP since last season) has a large price discrepancy between the two major sites.

Blue Jays own the highest Vegas projected run total (4.80) of the night against LHP Holland

While LHP Derek Holland owns a 2.48 ERA this season, he really hasn’t pitched well. He owns a 4.78 xFIP, 32Hard% and a strikeout rate of just 15.5% on the season. He will be facing the Blue Jays tonight who own the highest Vegas projected run total of the slate at 4.80. Although some of the Blue Jays bats have been slumping recently, they make for top targets this evening against Holland. Josh Donaldson (.421 wOBA – .311 ISO – 174 wRC+ vs LHP) destroys lefties and is the top 3B option of the slate. Edwin Encarnacion (.376 wOBA – .232 ISO – 132 wRC+ vs LHP) is affordably priced ($3.5K on DK) and is in prime position to hammer Holland tonight. Troy Tulowitzki (.403 wOBA – .232 ISO – 140 Wrc+ vs LHP) and Jose Bautista (.382 wOBA – .246 ISO – 137 wRC+ vs LHP) are also top options at their respective positions and should be considered in all formats. Stack the Blue Jays hitters with confidence tonight.

Conley threw 116 pitches in near no-hitter, Arizona has a 121 wRC+ vs LHP

Adam Conley may be a popular pick after 7.2 no-hit innings before being unpopularly lifted last time out, but he had thrown 116 pitches and walked four batters. In fact, he has walked four in each of his last two and the Marlins may watch his pitch count tonight. He has a lot of upside in that left arm (25.5 K%), but will challenge batters and has been hit hard occasionally (34.3 Hard%). Additionally, Arizona has hit LHP extremely well this season (121 wRC+, 37.2 Hard%, 23.2 HR/FB) and starts off with five RHBs. Conley has actually handled them better than lefties (.297 wOBA/.380 wOBA) in his short career. At a price still below $7K Conley has to remain in consideration on a difficult and shortened slate, but it’s not a sure thing in a potentially tough matchup. Paul Goldschmidt smashes lefties (185 wRC+ since 2015), but is priced accordingly and Jean Segura has just an 87 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Some value may be found in the other three RHBs though, especially Brandon Drury (116 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP) for just $3K. Welington Castillo (139 wRC+, .311 ISO vs LHP) is a few hundred more at a difficult position.

Happ's K% has decreased, but ERA remains low due to high strand rate

J.A. Happ has mostly failed to retain the qualities that led him to success in Pittsburgh last year with just a 15.2 K% and an 18.0 Hard-Soft%. The one thing he has been able to do is strand 88.2% of his runners to keep his ERA below three when his estimators are nearly two runs higher. Texas, however, comes at him with a left-handed heavy lineup up top (three of first four batters) leaving us without a lot of projected value in this offense. Rougned Odor has hit lefties for a 110 wRC+ and .184 ISO over the last year and a month. Adrian Beltre has hit lefties for 146 wRC+ and .224 ISO. He can be had for below $4K. Otherwise, this is not really a favored spot on either end tonight.

Ross more walks, fewer strikeouts with a .346 wOBA vs LHBs.

Joe Ross has a sinker/slider combo over 90% of the time that is effective against RHBs, but can prove problematic against a patient, well balanced lineup like the Cubs. His K% has also dropped to 16.4 this year, though his SwStr (9.4%) remains average. Ross has allowed a .346 wOBA to LHBs since last season, which automatically favors Anthony Rizzo (155 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP since 2015, 255 wRC+ last week). The Cubs also have a couple of lefties for below $3K in the lineup, including Tommy LaStella (122 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) in the two spot and a Ryan Kalish siting batting 6th. Kalish hasn’t played much the last couple years but comes at minimum cost. Switch hitters Fowler and Zobrist have been better vs LHP though still passable from the other side, though Fowler costs well over $4K on either site.

Tanaka is one of three pitchers with at least 59 GB% and 20 K%

A pitcher with an elite ground ball rate and above average strikeout rate are a rare breed. Among qualified pitchers last year, only two existed and one won the AL Cy Young. This is something new for Tanaka though, at least the ground ball part (59.6%) and it’s helped limit the HR damage (15.1 career HR/FB). A lot of that can be attributed to Yankee Stadium, but Camden has similar HR factors for LHBs. The strikeouts have always been part of his game and even more encouraging is a 13.5 SwStr%, which is what he had in 2014 when he struck out 26% of batters. Without a history of generating so many ground balls, we have to be cautious in our expectations, but Tanaka has one of the top upsides of the night. While we don’t want to attack him too much, we’ve noted his HR issues and both Machado (154 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Davis (160 wRC+, .345 ISO vs RHP) crush righties.

Realmuto (237 wRC+, 47.6 Hard% last seven days) retains leadoff spot vs LHP

The Marlins are employing several bats who hit LHP very well behind new leadoff hitter J.T. Realmuto (119 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP since last season), who has taken to his new lineup spot with a 237 wRC+ and 47.6 Hard% over the last week. Martin Prado follows in the order with a 133 wRC+ vs LHP and 141 wRC+ over the last week. Giancarlo Stanton absolutely crushes LHP though (202 wRC+, .521 ISO, 52.2 Hard% since 2015) and has also been hot (214 wRC+ last seven days). Following them is another scorching lefty masher in Marcell Ozuna (156 wRC+ vs LHP, 195 wRC+ last seven). These numbers make a Miami stack look profitable against a pitcher with a 12.7 BB% and 16.2 Hard-Soft%, allowing a .340 wOBA to RHBs since last season.