DFS Alerts

Simon (.386 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015) averaging three innings per start

Alfredo Simon has been getting pummeled and is averaging just three innings per start. While he’s not really getting anyone out this year, RHBs in particular have a .386 wOBA against him since last season. This makes Alex Presley in the two spot a great punt OF option for the minimum on DraftKings. He has a 38.5 Hard% over the last week. Switch hitter Jonathan Villar has not had a ton of success against RHP (98 wRC+ since 2015) and is more costly, but does have a 154 wRC+ over the last week. Braun, Lucroy, and Carter are equally expensive, but all have been above average hitters against RHP since last season with a wRC above 125 over the last week. Batted balls by Chris Carter are leaving the bat at an average of 94.6 mph this season.

Cincinnati has the 2nd highest projected run line tonight (4.57)

Chase Anderson has allowed 35.6% hard contact with six of 20 fly balls leaving the yard this season next to just a 16.4 K%. This is the reason an inefficient Cincinnati offfense (70 wRC+ vs RHP) is projected for the 2nd highest run line tonight (4.57) on our Vegas Odds page. Joey Votto has a 158 wRC+ with .224 ISO vs RHP since last season, hitting 43.2% of batted balls hard. That rate has increased to 61.5% hard over the last week. If you’re looking for a slightly cheaper bat, Adam Duvall (121 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been strong against same handed pitching, while Anderson has exhibited a bit of reverse platoon split in his career (.359 wOBA to RHBs).

Phillies-Cardinals square off in only afternoon game of the day

There will be light DFS action on the lone afternoon game of the day as the all day/early slates across the industry are relatively trivial. That said, if you are playing a slate involving this game you’ll want to look to Cardinals SP Jaime Garcia as an option as he faces a woeful Phillies lineup projected to score just three runs and is a large favorite at -174. Outside of Andres Blanco and Darin Ruf (who is always a viable option when he plays as he has a career .397 wOBA/.249 ISO against LHP) no one in the Phillies lineup seems capable of doing damage. Jerad Eickhoff takes the mound for the Phillies and he has been vulnerable to LH bats over the course of his one plus major league seasons (to the tune of a .356 wOBA allowed which includes 5 HR’s and 18 extra base hits in 35 IP). Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, and Matt Adams occupy three of the first four spots in the batting order and are excellent options. If you want to dip down deeper in the Cardinals lineup, Jeremy Hazelbaker hits from the left side of the plate and has a .412 wOBA against RHP in limited time this season.

Hanley Ramirez (flu) Scratched Wednesday

Hanley Ramirez was scratched Wednesday with flu like symptoms. Travis Shaw will slide over to 1B and Josh Rutledge will start at 3B and bat 7th.

There are few games with a YELLOW tag (NYY/BAL & BOS/CWS), but it looks like those games should start on time with no issues. There does seem to be some concern with the CLE/DET game though, as that game is considered ORANGE and may experience long periods of rain. Make sure to read Kevin’s full report linked below before lineup lock.

Phillies own 74 wRC+ and .291 wOBA against RHP this year

While he doesn’t possess the strikeout upside we look for in GPP’s (14.5K%), Mike Leake has one of the best matchups on the board tonight against the Phillies. As a team, the Phillies own a 74 wRC+ and .291 wOBA against RHP this season. Outside of Franco and Howard, their lineup doesn’t feature any power, which makes them an attractive team to target pitchers against. Leake is in position to serve as a decent SP2 starter on sites where you can roster 2 pitchers, but there are other plays in Leake’s price range of $7.4 on DK that may be better options (De La Rosa, Carlos Rodon). There is no reason to consider any of the Phillies hitters tonight, given their low Vegas projected run total of just 3.35.

Clay Buchholz owns 10.5 BB% and 5.25 xFIP in 2016

Clay Buccholz hasn’t pitched well this year, as he owns an elevated 10.5BB% and an xFIP of 5.25. His K% has also decreased this year, down 3 points from his 18.5% career average. He’s not a pitcher that we want to target tonight in any formats. Although there are much better matchups to exploit on tonight’s slate, there are a few Sox players to consider. Jose Abreu owns a .371 wOBA and .222 ISO against RHP and is definitely playable in any format. Todd Frazier will most likely have a low ownership percentage in GPP’s and is worth consideration, given his .336 wOBA and .264 ISO line against RHP this season. You could also consider Adam Eaton (.358 wOBA against RHP), especially stacked with Frazier and Abreu in GPP’s.

Red Sox struggle with LHP, take on the erratic Carlos Rodon in Chicago

This is one of the most interesting match-ups on the board. The Red Sox have struggled with left-handed pitching to this point in the year, ranking third to last in wOBA (.253), sixth-worst in ISO (.121) and third-worst in wRC+ (52). They do boast a number of tough RH bats (Betts, Pedroia, Ramirez, Bogaerts) so there is definitely reason to believe that they’ll improve, but they’ve had a tough go so far in 2016. Carlos Rodon’s picture should be under the definition for the word erratic; he can be absolutely electric when he’s on, but he continues to walk RH hitters at an eye-popping rate (5.21 BB/9 this season, 4.93 last season) and does have a habit of giving up HRs in bunches. We do not want to pick on him with LH hitters (he’s allowed a .230 wOBA over his career and boasts an elite -8.3 Hd-St% over that time span), but the RH bats here are in play, especially in GPPs. Rodon owns a 5.10 FIP when facing RHs at home dating back to last season, as the walks and a lower GB% do make him vulnerable to blowups. Mookie Betts (.361 wOBA, .176 ISO, 31.9 hard%), Dustin Pedroia (.358 wOBA, .198 ISO, 35.5 hard%) and Xander Bogaerts (.389 wOBA, .103 ISO, 29.3 hard%) are all fine GPP targets, but they may not be worth their price tags in cash games, especially if you buck up for Jose Fernandez on single pitcher sites. Chris Young is also an option as a punt play, as his .409 wOBA, .248 ISO and 32.8 hard% put him in play anytime he’s in the top six of the lineup against a lefty.

Phil Hughes owned a 13.5 HR/FB% last year, takes on power packed Astros tonight in Minute Maid

There’s a pretty good chance that balls will be flying into the stands tonight, as fly-ball pitcher Phil Hughes will take on the Astros in Minute Maid Park. In what was considered to be one of his better seasons, Hughes owned a 14.4K% and 13.5HR/FB% in 2015. The Astro bats make for very appealing targets tonight, starting with Carlos Correa. In 165 carrer AB’s, Correa boasts a .385 wOBA and 147 wRC+ at home against RHP. Consider Correa the top SS option tonight. Jose Altuve (.325 wOBA vs RHP at home) is a solid cash game option who is always a threat for a steal or two. George Springer (.220 ISO – .408 wOBA vs RHP at home through 46 AB’s at home) hit a monster shot last night, and will look to go yard again tonight. Finally, Colby Rasmus has hit 7 HR’s this season and owns a .307 ISO – .385 wOBA mark against RHP, making him a high upside target against Hughes. The Astros own a Vegas projected run total of over 5, so don’t be shy in your exposure to them this evening.

D'Backs take on Jose Fernandez and his 33.6 K% in Miami

Jose Fernandez remains one of the elite young arms in baseball, but he’s had a somewhat rocky start to the season. Let’s get to the positives first – he’s missing bats at an elite clip (33.6 K%, 13.2 SwStr%), racking up 40 Ks in just 28.2 IP. Fernandez’s velocity is also pretty much in line with his averages between 2014-2015, and the fact that this game will be played in Miami is another plus for the young righty; he’s allowed just a .222 wOBA at home over his career, including just 9 HRs given up in just under 180 IP (Chris Young and Patrick Corbin have both allowed 8 HRs already this year). The D’Backs will throw a bevy of lefties at him tonight (Lamb, Peralta, Herrmann), but those bats are not nearly enough to warrant avoiding Fernandez in any format. The downside (so far this season) for Fernandez has been walks – he’s issued 14 already this season, and currently owns a 6.59 BB/9 rate against LH bats. Those numbers will obviously improve over the course of the year, but it’s still worrisome at this point when we consider that the Marlins aren’t going to let him get through more than 100-105 pitches at most. Fernandez is playable in any format tonight, with Drew Smyly being the only real reason to avoid him in cash games on one-pitcher sites.

Yankees look to break out of their slump against Tyler Wilson

Over the last 14 days, the Yankees have posted a dismal 71 wRC+ and .273 wOBA. They haven’t hit for power (.101 ISO) and had issues scoring runs. Tonight they look to break out of their slump in Baltimore against Tyler Wilson. Wilson isn’t a pitcher who is going to strikeout many batters, given his 15.7K% against RHB and 4.4K% against LHB. Yes, you are reading that correctly: 4.4%. The Yankees lineup features seven LHB’s and should have no problem putting the ball into play this evening. Brian McCann is one of the top options of the slate at the catcher position and should be targeted in all formats. Given their Vegas projected run total of 4, the LHB Yankee bats make for interesting GPP plays. Brett Gardner (.326 wOBA) and Mark Teixeira (.385 wOBA – .315 ISO) hit righties well and are also legitimate targets, as is Carlos Beltran (.352 wOBA). Jacoby Ellsbury has been struggling this year, but owns a .340 wOBA and 108 wRC+ against RHP and could be included in any potential NYY GPP stacks tonight.

RH Tampa bats make for intriguing GPP stack tonight at home against LHP Alex Wood

Alex Wood could very well be in for a long night against the Rays this evening. Wood owns a career 4.52 xFIP and 18.5K% against RHP and will be facing a lineup featuring eight RHB’s. The Rays are heavy favorites and Vegas projects them to score just under 4 runs tonight. Logan Forsythe (.508 wOBA – .360 ISO – 259 wRC+ vs LHP in 2016) boasts an average exit velocity of 94 MPH and makes for one of the top 2B plays on the slate. Evan Longoria (.387 wOBA – .250 ISO career vs LHP) is a notorious lefty masher and should also be highly considered in all formats. Steve Pearce (.357 wOBA – 125 wRC+ career vs LHP) is another player to be considered, given the matchup and appealing price ($3.1K on DK). Fire up the RHP Tampa bats with confidence this evening.

Drew Smyly owns a 32K% and 13.4 SwStr% in 2016

Drew Smyly has had some electric stuff this season, posting a 32K% and a 13.4 SwStr% thus far. He will face the Dodgers tonight, who own the lowest Vegas projected run total of the slate (3.09). The Dodgers rank in bottom third in the league against LHP and own a 91 wRC+ against them. Oddly enough though, as a team the Dodgers only strikeout 17.7% of the time against southpaws. While this does work against Smyly, he should still be able to punch out a considerable amount of LAD batters tonight. Consider him one of the top options tonight in any format. It would be smart to avoid the majority of the LAD bats tonight, but Enrique Hernandez (.454 wOBA – .269 ISO – 194 wRC+) has been demolishing LHP and must be considered anytime he faces one.

Colby Lewis and his 21.0 Hd-St% should feel the wrath of a cold Blue Jays lineup

Toronto has struggled with the likes of Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin already this week, so while it wouldn’t be shocking to see them end up under their team total for the night, they have a very good shot at putting up crooked numbers against Colby Lewis. Lewis’ 21.0 Hd-St% (difference between hard and soft contact) is the biggest on this slate and the fact that he’s been allowing HRs at an alarming rate (7 already this season, 4 to LHs) does not bode well for him in Rogers Centre. His unbelievably high LOB% (98.0% vs. LHs, 94.9% vs. RHs) will obviously begin to see a steep drop off, and when that happens it could lead to some huge run totals being put up against him. The Toronto lineup certainly boasts the pop to make that happen – Jose Bautista (.412 wOBA, .328 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015), Josh Donaldson (.433 wOBA, .304 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015) and Edwin Encarnacion (.383 wOBA, .280 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015) are all elite power threats at home. Justin Smoak has hit Lewis well in the past (7-16 with 2 HRs) and will be hitting in the five spot tonight ahead of Troy Tulowitzki, making him a strong GPP punt play near the minimum on both major sites. Michael Saunders is another elite target at the top of the Jays lineup – don’t be shy with your exposure here despite a slow start to the week for Toronto.

Orioles RH bats in a great spot against Sabathia, who allowed 25 HRs to RHs last year

C.C. Sabathia is a shell of his former self, something the Orioles RH bats will be able to exploit this evening. The lefty allowed 25 HRs to RH bats last season to go along with a .370 wOBA, 2.16 K/BB rate and 5.25 FIP, making him an arm we’ll want to target heavily with opposing bats. He’s not missing many bats this year (15.2 K%, 7.3 SwStr%) and considering strikeouts can be a problem for the Orioles power-filled lineup, this factor makes them that much more appealing. Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado are the two top targets here, but the 1-8 hitters are all squarely in play with Joey Rickard, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold offering solid value in the top six. Trumbo has had his power on full display against LHs so far in 2016 (.440 wOBA, .593 ISO, 44.4 hard%), and while he’s a very volatile bat, his upside is massive in this match-up. Manny Machado is typically a better target against RH pitching, but his numbers against LHs are still strong (.392 wOBA) and Sabathia’s struggles with RH bats should counter any issues Machado has with southpaws. Joey Rickard and Adam Jones are both too cheap on FanDuel ($2,700) each, while Nolan Reimold (who is 12-32 with 5 XBHs – 2 HRs vs. Sabathia) has hit the big lefty well in the past. It’s hard to argue with rostering any of these Orioles bats, including fellow lefty Chris Davis who posted solid splits against LHs in 2015 (.345 wOBA, .200 ISO).