DFS Alerts
Zimmermann's 12.1 K-BB% lowest of career, estimators 3.5 runs above ERA.
Jordan Zimmermann has only had a lower SwStr% (7.5) in his career with 31 innings in 2010. His 12.1 K-BB% is the lowest of his career. His SIERA and xFIP sit just above four with a 0.55 ERA. His FIP is over a run lower, but we’re not buying into a 2.7 HR/FB, so that’s out the window too. What he is doing is stranding 92.3% of his runners and that just can’t continue. Zimmermann has allowed a .320 wOBA to LHBs since last year, so there are a couple of sneaky bats in the Texas lineup we can look at tonight. Nomar Mazara bats in the two hole with a 171 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP with a price tag under $3.5K, while Rougned Odor (106 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since last season) has been on fire (164 wRC+ last seven days) since claiming the leadoff spot and can be had for just a bit more. Mitch Moreland (130 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is even cheaper ($3.1K on both sites) and may be worth a look despite being further down in the order.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland, Jordan Zimmermann
Moustakas scratched, everyone moves up a spot, Infante bats 7th
Mike Moustakas, who has been dealing with a lingering injury all week, has been scratched. Everyone else moves up a spot with Omar Infante batting 7th. Danny Salazar was already a strong option against a struggling offense and this only helps his cause.
As reported by: Mike Swanson Other tagged players: Omar Infante, Danny Salazar Hamels owns a 20% HR/FB and 4.30 SIERA this season, faces RH heavy Tigers lineup tonight
Hamels hasn’t quite pitched up to standards this season, owning a 21.3K%, 4.30 xFIP, 11.8BB% and a HR/FB of 20%. Tonight he will square off the right handed heavy lineup of the Detroit Tigers. Hamels is allowing a .346 wOBA and 4.42 xFIP to righties through 22.2 IP this season, making him an interesting pitcher to target with the RH power bats of the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera (.241 ISO career vs LHP), Ian Kinsler (.201 ISO career vs LHP) and JD Martinez (.230 ISO career vs LHP) have all hit lefties for power in past, and are very solid plays in any format tonight. Nick Castellanos only has 3 hits in 18 AB’s against LHP this year, but 2 of them have been HR’s. The Tigers make for a great GPP stack tonight, owning a Vegas projected run total of 4.3.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, JD Martinez, Ian Kinsler
Orioles have been average vs LHP (101 wRC+) with Hill still below $8K
Rich Hill is still an under-appreciated pitcher among daily fantasy pricing algorithms and after 10 starts with quality peripherals, we should start buying in a bit more even if we don’t expect his strikeout rate to remain above 30%. His double digit SwStr% along with a 50% ground ball rate projects well going forward, yet he still remains available for less than $8K. Baltimore is a tough park and be sure to watch for weather difficulties, but they’ve been just average against LHP (101 wRC+) and were shut down by C.C. Sabathia this week. They hit the ball hard, but Hill has an aEV of just 86.4 mph this season off the bat. He can easily generate the most value beyond his price tag tonight if he just keeps doing what he’s been doing in most of his starts. Baltimore has a couple of RH reverse platoon bats that still do okay vs LHP, but better vs righties (Machado, Jones) and Chris Davis still handles lefties well (108 wRC+), but has been cold (10 wRC+ last week). Mark Trumbo might be the most dangerous bat here (140 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP since last season). There seems to be less potential in the offense than the pitching in this matchup though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Adam Jones Greinke has suffered regression and poor catcher framing, but in a great spot tonight in Atlanta
Among the things driving Zack Grienke’s disappointing, one is regression which was always expected to be there, two is negative park effect that he does not have to deal with tonight, and third is Welington Castillo’s inferior catcher framing behind the plate, turning an 11.4 SwStr% into just a 19.3 K% so far. The last, he will have to suffer through for as long he remains the primary catcher, but all of his bad starts have come at home this year and he couldn’t possibly be in a better spot than Atlanta tonight against possibly the worst offense in baseball (59 wRC+ at home, 65 wRC+ vs RHP, 40 wRC+ last seven days). Greinke has struck out at least five with two runs or less in three of his five starts and Atlanta has a 25.0 K%, 2.7 BB% vs RHP this year. This is one of the top pitching spots on the slate tonight.
Yordano Ventura has a 16.7 BB% this year
Yordano Ventura has a 16.7 BB% this year and a below average K% again. He has twice walked six batters in a game this season. There may be some opportunity in attacking him with the top of the Cleveland lineup if his control abandons him again. Brantley and Kipnis each have a wRC+ above 140 vs RHP since last season with Santana and Lindor more average (114-118 wRC+ vs RHP), but both have a wRC+ above 150 over the last week. Unfortunately, they are all priced at $4K or above on DK ($3K and above on FD), which may limit their value, but this appears to be a pitcher who’s lost it that other players might be unwilling to attack yet.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Yordano Ventura, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor Royals have 45 wRC+, 1.7 HR/FB over the last week, striking out more this year
Kansas City is normally not a team to roster a pitcher against, but they have a 45 wRC+ over the last week with a 1.7 HR/FB and -2.6 Hard-Soft%. They’ve also struck out at a nearly average rate vs RHP (19.5 K%) and Danny Salazar has struck out at least seven in four of five starts. He might slip by unnoticed due to the reputation of his opponent (low strikeouts) on a talented pitching board. He has a 27.7 K% at home since last season and has even improved on his contact management this year (1 HR, -6.0 Hard-Soft%), though it’s hardly at a stabilization point yet. The walks have climbed, but his Zone% and velocity are in line, which make it less worrisome. There is a great lack of interest in the cold KC bats (aside from Hosmer) in this tough spot tonight, while Salazar could go under-owned facing an offense with the 4th lowest run projection tonight (3.24).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer Piscotty has a 172 wRC+ vs LHP, under $4K today
Francisco Liriano didn’t walk a single batter in his last start, but still has a 13.5 BB% and hasn’t struck out more than six since facing these Cardinals on Opening Day. He also walked five of them and with a 37.2 Hard%, has become difficult to trust at a high price. He also keeps the ball on the ground over 55% of the time, making him difficult to attack as well, but there may be some value in a couple of names. Stephen Piscotty bats 2nd with a 172 wRC+ and .222 ISO vs LHP in his career. That deserves some consideration against an erratic arm for less than $4K. Randal Grichuk is just average against RHP (107 wRC+), but with a .239 ISO and due to a cold streak (6 wRC+ last seven days) his price has dropped below $3K as he’s dropped to 6th in the order. However, he has a 33.3 Hard% this week and for the season retains a 93.3 mph aEV and 249 ft average distance on batted balls.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Francisco Liriano Realmuto remains leadoff vs RHP
Vincent Velasquez has a bit of reverse platoon split with his fastball/curveball arsenal so far, but RHBs still only have a .295 wOBA against him. You might not have noticed that his numbers have plummeted since his 16 K performance against San Diego though (16.1 IP – 8 R/5 ER – 7 BB – 14 K with an 8.4% SwStr in three starts). Perhaps there’s a reason the Astros traded him as part of a package for a reliever. He’s still a quality arm you may not want to attack outside of someone like Stanton (142 wRC+, .299 ISO, 43.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015). He hits baseballs very hard (94.7 mph aEV), but one other bat you might want to consider is in the 5th spot. Derek Dietrich (142 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has excelled since Gordon’s suspension (176 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% over the last week).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Vince Velasquez Presley (149 wRC+ last seven days) serves up some cheap value in the two spot again
Timothy Adleman is a 28 year old 718th pick in 2010 with just one major league outing to his name. It may be that the Brewers know little about him as well, helping him to succeed tonight, but when you can’t find anything written on Fangraphs about a player, there generally isn’t going to be much success. Chris Carter continues to punish the baseball (193 wRC+ over the last week, 94.4 mph aEV on the season) and is averaging 247 feet on batted balls this year. Ryan Braun is a good hitter against RHP at home at a high cost ($5K on DK). Take a look at fill in Alex Presley in the two hole as a potential punt value play for the minimum price or close to it. He has a 149 wRC+ over the last week with a 38.5 Hard% and even just a single hit makes him worth the expenditure. Kirk Nieuwenhuis moves up in the lineup and has some pop (.174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at a low cost (on FD). He has a 136 wRC+ over the last week.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, Tim Adleman, Kirk Nieuwenhuis Duval has been hot (44.4 Hard% last week) and has a .333 ISO vs RHP.
Tyler Cravy has shown some ability to miss bats in the minors, but it hasn’t translated well to the majors yet, though control issues have followed him. Batters from both sides of the plate have had success against him (.348 wOBA vs RHB/.378 vs LHB). While Joey Votto is the most proficient bat in this lineup (158 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce supplies occasional power at home (.241 ISO vs RHP since 2015), you could look lower in the lineup for a bat that has been excelling recently. Adam Duvall (127 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP) has a 152 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week. Billy Hamilton could be useful if he found a way to reach base and has even homered off Cravy, but is not worth $3.9K on DraftKings. Cincinnat is projected for the 3rd highest run line (4.4) of the night.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Tyler Cravy Nationals take on Cubs in Friday's only afternoon game
Max Scherzer will look to repeat his seven inning, no runs allowed, nine strikeout performance from his last game out today against the Cubs who will counter with John Lackey. Both pitchers shut down RH bats very well and have struggled a bit against the opposing side of the plate (although Scherzer did allow just a .284 wOBA in 2015 to LH bats he has been somewhat roughed up in 2016 to the tune of a .368 wOBA allowed). Lackey is at .330 wOBA vs LH bats for this season after a 2015 season that saw him at .326 wOBA. Vegas has the game as a near pick em so it’s a game to avoid on sites where the win matters, especially in cash games. For the Nationals we can look to their two big LH bats, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy as viable options. The Nationals have also activated Ben Revere who will lead off and he makes for a nice GPP play given the match up and likely low ownership he’ll have. We don’t typically want to target hitters against Scherzer but he has been known to implode and a contrarian team stack of any of the top five hitters in their lineup (Dexter Fowler-Jason Heyward-Kris Bryant-Anthony Rizzo-Ben Zobrist) could lead to a good day if he does so today.
As reported by: Jamal Collier on Twitter Other tagged players: John Lackey, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo
Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside confirmed as the starters on Thursday
Wade was listed as questionable for tonight’s game but has been confirmed as the starter at SG. Whiteside is dealing with a thigh injury and also suffered a knee injury in Game 1, but is good to go for Game 2. Both players are strong plays at their respective positions but don’t have much upside with their salaries so elevated. Whiteside is slightly more discounted than Wade but has not exceeded 5.3x in these playoffs. Wade had 46.5 fpts in Game 1, but will have a tough time repeating that performance in a game that is projected for 189 total points.
As reported by: Ira Winderman Other tagged players: Hassan Whiteside
Erik Johnson posted a 5.20 xFIP and 4.97 SIERA in 2015
Erik Johnson will make his first start of the season this evening, and it’s looking like it could be a pretty rough outing for him. In 2015, he pitched 35 innings and owned a 19.9K%, 4.97 SIERA and 5.20 xFIP. His numbers against LHP where even worse, as he posted a 6.64 xFIP, 14BB% and 12.8K% against them in just over 16 IP. The Red Sox players will be popular options tonight, and rightfully so. David Ortiz (.420 wOBA – .306 ISO – 160 wRC+ career vs RHP) stands out as one of the top 1B plays and should be considered in all formats. Dustin Pedroia has hit righties well this season, owning a .390 wOBA and 152 wRC+ against RHP thus far in 2016. Travis Shaw owns a .247 ISO and .454 wOBA against RHP this year in 73 AB’s, and is a solid option at the 3B position. Feel confident in stacking any Red Sox hitters 1-6 in GPP’s this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw Rockies have struggled vs RHP (86 wRC+), while Cain has struggled against everyone
Batters from either side have swatted Matt Cain for a .350 wOBA or better since last season as he just can’t seem to miss bats anymore with the lowest swinging strike rate (7.6%) since his rookie season and at least three runs allowed in each of his last four outings. The Rockies are a notoriously bad road team with only the two through four hitters showing any promise away from Coors and only Cargo (147 wRC+) and Arenado (129 wRC+) being proficient against RHP since last season. Arenado carries a high price tag in one of the worst run environments in baseball and one that cripples Gonzalez’s LH power, leaving us without much to look forward to on either side of this matchup.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Cain