DFS Alerts

Wind blowing in at Wrigley, Cubs still line up well vs Nelson

Jimmy Nelson’s 9.4 BB% should be a problem against the Cubs (12.9 BB% vs RHP). Looking at the HR rates, we further see his career 11.7 HR/FB match up poorly with Chicago’s 14.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year. The one thing going in his favor is that Kevin’s early weather report has the winds blowing in from center at 25 mph at Wrigley tonight. This is still a pitcher we have little interest in considering the talent on tonight’s board and especially with the top five Cubs in the lineup all holding a wRC+ above 160 over the last seven days with Fowler a 56.3 Hard% over the last week. Additionally, Heyward, Rizzo, and Bryant have a wRC+ above 125 vs RHP since last season. Despite the wind blowing strongly in, the Cubs may still make a strong Coors alternative stack at the top tonight and a lineup you’ll want at least some exposure to.

David Price velocity down, but still 16.0 SwStr% in great spot

David Price might be slightly broken with a two mph velocity drop. For most pitchers, that would be very concerning and it still might be, but it’s happened to him before (2013) and he’s generally down a bit early in the season before turning it up as it gets warmer. Further encouragement is a 16.0 SwStr% and he has been fairly dominant in two of his four starts, including one against Toronto. The last reason why you should remain probably remain somewhat confident in him tonight is that Atlanta has an 18.3 K-BB% vs LHP without a HR. In fact, they haven’t hit a HR in nearly two weeks. Adonis Garcia is the only Brave we even want to consider for about $3K. He has a 139 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP. Price remains one of the top pitchers tonight because of a high expected K% (even with the velocity drop) and Atlanta’s inability to make good contact. Atlanta currently has the 2nd lowest run projection (3.14).

Phillies use two minimally priced players in top five slots vs Scherzer

Max Scherzer has taken a step back since last season and slightly more concerning, all four of his starts have been against the bottom of the NL East. His best work was against these Phillies though. Despite a 14.3 HR/FB, he’s actually generating a ton of weak contact (-5.7 Hard-Soft%, 85.6 avg ExVel). The large drop in SwStr% is a bit concerning (15.3% to 10.2%), but expectations might have been a bit high after his first half last year anyway. He’s a bit pricey, actually very pricey, which doesn’t make him all that much of a bargain, but he should be worth somewhere near his cost at least. He’s one of many pitchers we have little interest in attacking tonight. However, the Phillies bat two minimum priced players (Andres Blanco 2nd & Cameron Rupp 5th) in their top five at scarce postions (2B & C). These are not guys you’re looking to build around, but might be considered in a bind, more so Blanco with a 118 wRC+ vs RHP since last season.

Ross Stripling holds a 20.8% Hard Hit so far this year

While Stripling is not a pitcher who is going to overpower anybody with his stuff (19K% – 6.8 K/9), he has done a good job of not allowing hard hit balls against him so far this year. Tonight he takes on a Marlins offense that is projected to score 3.50 runs tonight. As a slight Vegas favorite for the win, Stripling makes for a possible cash game consideration on DK at his low price point ($5.6K). On the Miami side of things, Dee Gordon (.329 wOBA – 42 SB’s vs RHP in 2015) is a top 2B play this evening and is always a threat for a couple SB’s if he gets on base. Otherwise, besides Giancarlo Stanton (.375 wOBA – .291 ISO – 139 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015), there just isn’t a whole lot to like for the MIA lineup this evening.

Correction: Moss in lineup, batting cleanup for St Louis

Earlier there was an error that stated Brandon Moss & Matt Adams were on the bench for the Cardinals tonight. That is incorrect, Brandon Moss is batting cleanup, though he holds little value with a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and -18 wRC+ over the last week against Greinke.

Padres Vegas projected run total at only 2.93 against Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner has started off his 2016 season a bit shaky by giving up 8 ER’s in his first 16 IP’s. He will definitely look to build on his last start when he faced the Diamondbacks, allowing only 2 ER’s in 7 IP while striking out 8. Tonight he faces the lowly Padres, who’s Vegas projected run total is only 2.93, making Bumgarner one of the top pitching options on the slate. While the Padres have been quite terrible against RHP this year, they are ranked in the top six against LHP thus far. But given their elite opponent and having to play in a pitcher friendly ballpark (AT&T), the San Diego bats are easily avoidable tonight.

Drew Pomeranz owns a 17.4 SwStr% this year

Pomeranz has been a pleasant surprise for Padre fans this year, boasting a 34.7K% and a 17.4 SwStr% thus far in 2016. While his chances of racking up the W’s this year are slim (thanks Padres offense), he has shown the strikeout upside that we look for in GPP’s. Tonight he will duel it out with Madison Bumgarner, making a shot at a “W” all the more difficult. With that being said, he represents an excellent GPP play if you believe that he will continue to miss bats and rake up the strikeouts. Keep in mind though that the Giants are not overly strikeout prone against LHP, given their 19.1K% against them this year. On the offensive side of things for San Francisco, Buster Posey (.401 wOBA – .233 ISO – 162 wRC+ career vs LHP) is the lone player that you would want to go out of your way to target.

LH SEA Bats in prime position against RHP Fister tonight

Fister, who owns a career 16%K, looks to have his hands full with the left handed SEA batter tonight. Not a pitcher known for his strikeout ability, Fister will need some luck on his side to keep LH hitters like Robinson Cano off the bases tonight. Cano (5 HR’s vs RHP this year) is one of the best second base options tonight and Kyle Seager (.344 wOBA – 123 wRC+ career vs RHP) represents a top five option at the third base position. Nelson Cruz and Adam Lind both also serve as top plays at their positions tonight. Mariners hitters 1-6 represent one of the top GPP stacks of the night, given their power potential.

Kevan Smith scratched for the White Sox, Dioner Navarro now starting and batting 8th

Analysis coming soon.

Gonzalez, Seager sit vs LHP Chen at home

The Dodgers are going with an entirely RH lineup tonight, sitting Adrian Gonzalez and Corey Seager against the LH Wei-Yin Chen. Chen hasn’t pitched poorly, but his velocity is down two miles per hour and he did miss one start with an elbow issue, which may be enough to scare you off against an entirely RH lineup. The obvious Dodger bat tonight is Kike Hernandez in the leadoff spot. He has a 261 wRC+, .367 ISO in limited PAs vs LHP since last season, but comes at an incredibly low price below $3K. Kendrick and Turner have only been aveage vs LHP, but Puig has stepped up (139 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Trayce Thompson (149 wRC+.257 ISO vs LHP) is another cheap bat you might want to consider further down the lineup.

Kevin has posted the late weather update and just like this morning, it looks like Oakland @ Detroit is the only game with some real concern, though he believes it will get in. With the depth of quality pitching and offensive opportunities on tonight’s slate, it shouldn’t be too difficult to come up with a backup plan.

Ian Kennedy boasts a 28K%, Angels offense ranked last in MLB vs RHP

Ian Kennedy has pitched very well to begin the 2016 season. He’s struck out 28% of the batters he’s faced and has only allowed 3 runs in 21 IP thus far. He will be going up against the Angels tonight who rank 30th against RHP this year. While they do not strike out often as a team (17%K against RHP this year), they own the league’s worst wRC+ (56), wOBA (.241) and OPS (.539) vs RHP. All signs lead to another solid outing from Kennedy again this evening, making the Angel hitters quite unappealing tonight. Mike Trout is a player who is always in consideration in GPP’s, but the rest of the LAA hitters are easily avoidable tonight.

McCutchen OUT vs Rockies at Coors

Andrew McCutchen’s absence is sure to send everyone scrambling tonight, but also creates an affordable opportunity for his replacement, Matt Joyce. While he has been terrible (78 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), but has previously been a quality bat in his career and comes in at near the minimum cost on DraftKints. Obviously, stack your Pirates against Chad Bettis (.344 wOBA vs RHBs since last season). Starling Marte has a 126 wRC+ vs same handed pitching. Francisco Cervelli (114 wRC+ vs RHP) is your top catcher tonight. John Jaso (133 wRC+ vs RHP) is a fine first base choice atop the lineup and David Freese (112 wRC+ vs RHP) has the coveted 3rd spot. Polanco (112 wRC+ vs RHP) is down in the six hole, but benefits from the large Coors boost as well. Stack your Pirates confidently at Coors as usual with the 2nd highest run projection of the night (5.7), though it may drop a bit without McCutchen.

Super Lefty Smasher Raburn (180 wRC+ vs LHP) takes aim at Locke, Hundley returns

Jeff Locke is a pitcher of questionable talent in a great park in Pittsburgh. It’s frightening to think what may happen to his 7.24 ERA, 6.40 SIERA in this spot. Interestingly enough, as has been said with every lefty they’ve faced at home, the Rockies don’t have many bats that hit LHP well. In fact, Super Lefty Smasher Ryan Raburn (180 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) is the only above average bat vs LHP, although Arenado (97 wRC+, .225 ISO vs LHP) and Reynods (97 wRC+, .195 ISO) are average with power. They get the obvious gratuitous bump from Coors that makes most of them coveted anyway depending on lineup spots.Today, Gerardo Parra, the left handed bat, gets the leadoff bump despite just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP since last year. DJ LeMahieu (90 wRC+ vs LHP) may still be usable due solely to environment, but gets the bump downward in the 8th slot. Nick Hundley (82 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) returns from injury in the 7th slot, but can also be used due to environment and position scarcity. Locke has allowed a higher than .330 wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate since last season leaving the Rockies with the highest run project (6 runs) on tonight’s slate.

Ian Kinsler (illness) scratched from tonight's lineup

Ian Kinsler (flu like symptoms) has been scratched from DET’s lineup tonight. Mike Aviles will start in his spot and bat 9th while Jose Iglesias moves all the way up to the leadoff spot, making him a very interesting value play featured in a lineup projected to score 4.54 runs this evening.