DFS Alerts
Adams sits tonight vs Greinke
Tonight it’s the LH bat ( Adams) who sits tonight vs Zack Greinke in Arizona. This is less of an advantage than you think as Greinke does not have a large platoon split and the St Lous RH bats hit RHP well. This is a difficult spot on both sides. Greinke has the Arizona brass breathing a little easier as he’s still trying to shake off the results of his disastrous first start (as least in the numbers), but has looked much more like his old self since (20.6 K%, 11.1 SwStr% in 2016), as long as you’re looking at his entire career and not expecting a repeat of last year. While he’s probably not a poor choice, he may pose more risk than necessary at a high cost against a tough St Louis lineup when there are several pitchers in his price range of similar talent with better matchups. For the Cardinals, it’s much of the same. There’s little reason to jump on Greinke even if they hit RHPs well. An exception might be at the very top with Carpenter (144 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or Randal Grichuk (144 wRC+, .280 ISO, 42.3 Hard% vs RHP) in the low $3K range if you insisted on being contrarian here. Both have an average distance just over 250 feet on batted balls this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty
LHP Tommy Milone allowed a 13 HR/FB% to RHB’s in 2015
The right handed Cleveland batters are in a great spot against Tommy Milone tonight. In 2015, he allowed 14 HR’s in only 96 IP against RHB’s while only striking out 15.3% of batters. Also concerning was his 24.3%LD mark against righties, which was one of the highest marks in the league last year. Francisco Lindor (.397 wOBA – .195 ISO – 158 wRC+ career vs LHP) is one of the best plays at the shortstop positon tonight, and Yan Gomes (.340 wOBA – .183 ISO – 117 wRC+ career vs LHP) is also in contention for the top catcher play tonight. Other players to consider include Mike Napoli (.393 wOBA – .248 ISO – 145 wRC+ career vs LHP) and Rajai Davis (.346 wOBA – 116 wRC+ career vs LHP), who both have hit lefties exceedingly well in the past.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes
Salazar continues to miss bats at elite rate (15.8 SwStr%), getting weaker contact
Danny Salazar comes in at either the third or fourth highest price on either major site, but has the arsenal and command to compete with many of the big boys tonight. His 15.8 SwStr% might be a paltry third on tonight’s slate, but it’s a mark that would have competed with Kershaw for the league lead last season. With the Cleveland defense improved and weaker contact allowed so far (-5.2 Hard-Soft%, 5.6 HR/FB) he’s made generous strides with his contact profile. He makes a claim to being the top pitcher on one of the best staffs in baseball and is a top mound option on either site, but especially FanDuel for $1.5K less against an average Minnesota offense. For the Twins, both Sano (144 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) and Eduardo Nunez (147 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) hit same handed pitching well in prime lineup spots, but you probably want to limit exposure against Salazar at this point. Minnesota (3.4 runs) has the 3rd lowest projected run total tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez Garcia (55.6 GB%, 17.8 Hard%, 32.9 K%) has the profile to succeed in Arizona
Jaime Garcia is perhaps a very under-rated pitcher because he’s rarely ever healthy for a long stretch of time. With a 55.6 GB% and 17.8 Hard% (85.9 avg exit velocity), along with a 32.9 K%, he’s showing just how little the opposition can do against when he right. It’s difficult to buy into that K%, but his 11.5 SwStr% should be real enough with a career 10.5% mark. We generally shy away from pitchers in Arizona, but Garcia keeps it on the ground often enough along with the missed bats that there may be some value here in a generally avoided park for daily fantasy pitching purposes. Arizona is tough at home, especially against LHP, but do have a 23.8 K% against southpaws so far. While not wanting to attack Garcia much on the offensive side, Paul Goldshcmidt (185 wRC+, .267 ISO, 45.8 Hard% vs LHP since last season) is nearly matchup proof vs LHP at home, putting #2 hitter Brandon Drury (141 wRC+ vs LHP) in a better spot ahead of him and needing to do less to meet value for well under $3K. Welington Castillo (128 wRC+, .297 ISO, 42.1 Hard% vs LHP) crushes LHP at home and is another bat we might want to look at on the cheap in the Catcher spot. He’s also put up a 272 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Drury, Welington Castillo Look to target Yankees RHB’s tonight against LHP Ramos
While an effective reliever last year, Cesar Ramos is now looking to stretch himself into a starter. Coming out the bullpen in 2015, Ramos held a 19.5K% and FIP of 3.02. Mark Teixeira (.342 wOBA – .199 ISO – 116 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) stands out as the top play for the Yankees tonight, with Carlos Beltran (.363 wOBA – .231 ISO career vs LHP) and Starlin Castro (.329 wOBA – 105 wRC+ career vs LHP) both serving as great plays as well. With a projected run total of 4.24, the Yankees are in good position to score some runs tonight, and there is a pretty good chance that Beltran, Teixeira and Castro will play a large part in them.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro Ortiz and Ramirez out of Boston lineup in Atlanta
Suddenly Julio Teheran might get a second look against this much weakened Boston lineup with Travis Shaw batting cleanup and Josh Rutledge batting fifth, although we can’t say David Ortiz’s absence isn’t totally unexpected in an NL park. Unfortunately, Teheran has not exceed four strikeouts in any of his three home starts and carries ERA estimators well above four with an actual ERA above five. There’s probably nowhere to confidently go on either side here aside from the suddenly hot Mookie Betts (181 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%) at the top of the lineup and a very affordable Travis Shaw (118 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) with the lineup upgrade and Teheran’s .389 wOBA vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Julio Teheran, Josh Rutledge LH Ranger bats in good spot tonight against HR prone Eovaldi
In his 17.2 IP this season, Eovaldi has allowed 12 ER’s and 4 HR’s. In addition, of his 21 hits allowed, 48% of them have been doubles. While he does have the ability to strike batters out (29K% this season), Eovaldi has been quite blow-up prone in the past. The Rangers are in good position to exploit him tonight and boast a Vegas projected run total of 4.76, which is the highest of any non-Coors game tonight. Rougned Odor (.333 wOBA – .210 ISO vs RHP in 2015) is hitting lead off and serves as an excellent play. Both Prince Fielder (.392 wOBA – 146 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) and Mitch Moreland (.372 wOBA – .234 ISO vs RHP in 2015) have immense power upside, and are also in prime spots tonight. Stack any TEX hitters 1-6 with confidence tonight.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Prince Fielder Archer league high 40.0 HR/FB, O's tagged him for four last time
It’s not a dire situation with Chris Archer yet as he’s still missing a high rate of bats (29.6 K%, 11.5 SwStr%), but he’s clearly not performing up to last year’s standards and it might be foolish to continue to chase past glory at this point until we see some real results or at least an improvement in process (11.2 BB%, 51.0 F-Strike%). He has a league high 40.0 HR/FB with a 46.6 Hard% in addition to a 92.38 avg exit velocity and faces the offense most responsible for it, as the Orioles pummeled him for four HRs in his second start of the season. We still don’t want to attack him too hard with the bats with one reason being the change to a more pitcher friendly venue, but the O’s would make for an interesting contrarian stack with most players expected to avoid this situation altogether. If you so chose, Chris Davis (166 wRC+, .353 ISO, 44.9 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Manny Machado (157 wRC+, .252 ISO, 35.5 Hard% vs RHP) are the most obvious targets. Baltimore still has a fairly low projection of 3.5 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Chris Archer Martin out again, Carrera back in leadoff spot for Jays.
Miguel Gonzalez brings a career 0.95 GB/FB and 12.1 HR/FB to Toronto tonight. Enough said about him. The team that should be pummeling him loses Russell Martin for a second straight game and places Ezquiel Carrera atop the lineup again. He has a 254 wRC+ over the last week and is a great value for well below $3K on DraftKings tonight. Josh Donaldson (150 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) competes with Nolan Arenado for top third base spot tonight, while Jose Bautista (151 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP) is one of your top OFers, and ditto for Edwin Encarnacion (147 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP), who has a 44.4 Hard% over the last week despite just a 55 wRC+. In addition, Troy Tulowitzki (203 wRC+ last seven days) seems to be coming out of his funk, while Michael Saunders (236 wRC+ last seven days) has done little to earn his lineup demotion. The top six in the Toronto lineup are prime for stacking tonight. They have the 2nd highest run projection (4.6) outside of Coors tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Ezequiel Carrera, Michael Saunders, Miguel Gonzalez Graveman is pitching like 2015 Dallas Keuchel
Kendall Graveman generated some interest last year with a 50% GB rate, but didn’t really strike out enough batters to be daily fantasy relevant. This year, he’s increased not only the GB% 15 points, while cutting down on hard contact (0.0 Hard-Soft%, 85.23 avg ExVel), but he has a 10.9 SwStr%/21.4 K% and is throwing over a mph harder as well. That’s combination is nearly what won Dallas Keuchel a Cy Young last year. Even if we don’t expect him to keep this up or the Tigers to continue their current slide, they do have a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year (the equivalent of an All Star pitcher), while Jarrod Saltalamacchia (205) is the only batter with a wRC+ higher than 114 over the last week. Although the middle of the order does pack three bats – Miguel Cabrera (150 wRC+), J.D. Martinez (133 wRC+), Justin Upton (126 wRC+) – that play strong against RHP since last season, all have an overall wRC+ below 50 for the past seven days and the Tigers could struggle to elevate. Graveman stands a good chance of far exceeding a sub-$6K price tag with potential low ownership due to a popular fear of the Detroit lineup.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Justin Upton, JD Martinez Pearce replaces Morrison for Rays against RHP
Kevin Gausman is an intriguing talent, who we’d much rather see pitching for the Rays than against them sometimes, but is starting his first game back after an injury with unknown limits and a stunningly high $8.6K price tag on DraftKings. In addition the Rays have four batters exceeding a 200 wRC+ over the last week, including Logan Forsythe (271) and Kevin Kiermaier (260). One of the other two names, Corey Dickerson (157 wRC+, .316 ISO, 41.6 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) won’t surprise you with a 209 mark over the last week and offering incredible potential value at a cost just above $3K on both major sites. The other is Steve Pearce (108 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He has a 202 wRC+ over the last week and replaces a struggling Logan Morrison in the two spot.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Steve Pearce, Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Gausman Iglesias increased velocity and SwStr% in last start, Cespedes remains out.
Raisel Iglesias eased some concerns by hitting his 2015 velocity for the first time in his last start after sitting nearly two mph below in his previous three starts. He also struck out eight with his 2nd highest SwStr% (9.4) of the season. While not considering him completely reliable against a powerful offense, he has limited hard contact (23.9 Hard%) and HRs (7.7 HR/FB) so far and gets an upgrade in run environment tonight at Citi Field. He’s quite expensive on DraftKings, but more affordable on FanDuel ($7.9K) although you need to take his opponent (Syndergaard) into consideration more there with the value of a Win going up. The Mets have struck out 23.8% vs RHP. You could still look to some of the Mets power bats for offense if not using Iglesias, as the team has a 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP this year and 20.0 HR/FB overall this past week. Of particular appeal is Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .256 ISO, 45.1 Hard% vs RHP), who can continue to be had for just $3.1K on DraftKings. He is occasionally removed for defensive purpose later in games, but won’t be tonight with Cespedes still out, further increasing his value. Of course, this increases the pitcher’s value as well.
Other tagged players: Raisel Iglesias Coghlan (126 wRC+, .221 ISO) vs RHP could be a sleeper vs Zimmermann
Jordan Zimmermann surprisingly struck out eight of 26 Royals in his last start and still hasn’t allowed a run, but his 100 LOB% is going to cave in sometime with a SIERA & xFIP sitting just above four. There are plenty of desirable pitchers in his $8K price range that we might consider passing on a potentially over-valued option here. There are, however, a couple of very low priced Oakland bats, who excel against RHP. Chris Coghlan (126 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Stephen Vogt (127 wRC+, .207 ISO) at a scarce Catcher position might be of interest with minimal expected ownership against Zimmermann’s .324 wOBA vs LHBs since last season. Josh Reddick has similar numbers, but is priced slightly higher.
Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Jordan Zimmermann, Josh Reddick Stroman continues to generate high GB% (61.8), low K% (13.3)
Marcus Stroman continues to generate a ton of ground balls (61.8%) than strikeouts (13.3 K%, 6.6 SwStr%). While making him an useful major league pitcher to his team, it puts a cap on his daily fantasy usefullness. In the $8K range on both major sites, it’s difficult to see him generating much excess value beyond that price tag with a high of five strikeouts so far, but frequent weak contact against an offense making poor contact (26.7 Hard% vs RHP) should give him a high enough floor. His 4.3 Hard-Soft% in 2016 is pretty close Chicago’s mark against RHP this year (5.3%). As such, there’s not enough upside in a high ground ball expectation to look strongly at anyone offensively here, while Stroman probably has a high enough floor to at least consider, while there are much higher upside options in that price range.
Freeman dropped to 6th against Porcello (30.8 K% in 2016)
He may not have been hitting all that much this season, but is still their best hitter vs RHP since last season (135 wRC+, .218 ISO), so it’s a bit odd the Braves have dropped Freeman to 6th with no real replacement up higher in the order. Rick Porcello is not cheap and for that reason may fly a bit under the radar despite the great matchup due to several other bigger names in his price range. He has allowed five HRs, but struck out at least seven in each start with a low 85.4 mph exit velocity. The Braves have a 3.3 HR/FB vs RHP this year and not a single long ball over the last week without really the personnel to take advantage of Porcello’s biggest weakness. Adonis Garcia (99 wRC+ vs RHP) is about as average as they get, but does have a chance to pop one at a low price in a good lineup spot, while the same can be said of A.J. Pierzynski (115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) for the same price tag on both sites, but there’s really very little to like in this lineup. Porcello, however, is an interesting play with some upside.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, A.J. Pierzynski, Adonis Garcia