DFS Alerts
Feldman has reverse platoon split, generates weak contact, not Ks
Scott Feldman’s career 14.4 K% and 6.7 SwStr% pretty much disqualifies him from much consideration in all but the best spots. This isn’t one of them. However, we can’t just stack up power LH bats against him and be done with it because he has had a 1.5 GB/FB or better each of the last three years and a career 26.1 Hard%. Further, he exhibits a small reverse platoon split for his career that is more pronounced since last season (.346 wOBA vs RHBs). It looks like DeShields (97 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, 265 wRC+ last seven days) and Beltre (91, 128) might be the bats tonight, though neither has hit for much power vs RHPs. You don’t have to stay away from the LHBs, but perhaps Moreland (127 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since last season, 171 wRC+ last seven days) is the better and cheaper option than Fielder (135 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP, -50 wRC+ last seven). Moreland also leads Fielder in average exit velocity by nearly 6 mph (92.77 to 86.99) this season.
Other tagged players: Delino DeShields, Scott Feldman, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre
Perez (.392 wOBA vs LHBs) a major upgrade for Dodger bats
Julio Teheran isn’t bad at home, but is hittable. His replacement tonight, Williams Perez, should be punished. He has an ERA with estimators near five since his introduction to the major leagues last season with just a 14.0 K% and 11.4 BB%. LHBs, with which the Dodgers stack the lineup, have a .392 wOBA against him. He handles RHBs better (.255 wOBA), but that’s just two men tonight and Justin Turner has a significant reverse platoon split (148 wRC+ vs RHP since last season). In fact, after Utley (84 wRC+), who draws significant value from being in the leadoff spot, every other Dodger batter has a 109 or better wRC+ vs RHP since last season with the remaining LHBs all at 117 wRC+ or better. Seager (154 wRC+) and Gonzalez (132 wRC+) are your top bats vs RHP, but the Dodgers LHBs + Turner offer an excellent stacking opportunity against a bad pitcher tonight.
Other tagged players: Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Williams Perez, Justin Turner WAS hitters have crushed LHP since last season
Tonight the Washington Nationals take on LHP Adam Conley and the Miami Marlins. Conley pitched well in his last outing against the Mets, collected 9 SO’s in 6 IP. While impressive, the jury is still out Conley and his 2015 4.31 xFIP. The Nationals on the other hand, have a proven track record of success against LHP, ranking 3rd in the MLB in 2015 and 1st this season with a team .435 wOBA, .275 ISO, and 175 wRC+ so far this year. Tonight may be a rare opportunity to grab Bryce Harper (.421 wOBA – .234 ISO – 170 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) as an under-owned player in GPP’s, given the ballpark and availability of other OF options with favorable match ups. Also consider Ryan Zimmerman (.439 wOBA – .352 ISO – 182 Wrc+ vs LHP in 2015) who is playing first and batting cleanup tonight.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Conley
Yanks adjust lineup (Ellsbury sits) against LH Surkamp
In just 66 career innings, Eric Surkamp has a 6.14 ERA that doesn’t really lie considering a K% (12.8) that nearly matches his BB% (11.5). What he has been able to do is generate slightly more weak contact than hard (-2.2 Hard-Soft%), but the fact that he has a 0.86 GB/FB much better suits Oakland than Yankee Stadium. He could be in trouble tonight against a revamped Yankees lineup that puts Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench and has Starlin Castro batting 2nd, though he has just an 82 wRC+ vs LHP since last year and has cooled down since his hot start. At the top of the lineup, Brett Gardner hits lefties well (114 wRC+ since last seaon), while Carlos Beltran has been hot and moves into the 3rd spot, increasing his value on a .200 ISO batting RH since last season. Alex Rodriguez (.259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the only other bat to supply legit power vs southpaws, but has struggled greatly (-28 wRC+ last seven days). A 94.47 average exit velocity provides some optimism that he’s not that far away though. This is a spot that Yankees should be able to take advantage of and score some runs, but few of their better performing bats against LHP come in the lower price ranges. If you are looking for hidden value however, Aaron Hicks at $2.4K on FanDuel bats 7th, but has a 123 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and a 96.08 average exit velocity on his 10 batted balls this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Eric Surkamp Joe Kelly has averaged a walk per IP so far this season
Although the sample size is very small, Joe Kelly has walked 8 batters in 8 IP during his past two starts. This is clearly not a very welcoming site for Kelly, who has struggled with control issues throughout his career. While Kelly has seen a slight increase in his K/9 rate over the past few seasons, he is not by any means somebody we need to avoid in DFS. Although the Ray’s haven’t exactly been lighting up the strip with their bats, there are a few hitters that we can target to exploit the favorable matchup with Kelly. Corey Dickerson (.398 wOBA – .280 ISO – 138 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) serves as a nice mid-range option with HR potential and Evan Longoria (.373 wOBA – .242 ISO – 154 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) is seeing RHP well enough this season to be considered.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Joe Kelly Ventura 19.2 BB%, 88.2 LOB% in 11 innings, Castellanos sits
Yordano Ventura has kept the gains he’s made in strikeout department after the All Star break last season, setting down a quarter of the 47 batters he’s faced so far, but the problem is that he’s walking nearly as many of them. His early 2.45 ERA doesn’t tell you that because of an 88.2 LOB%, but continuing along this path will cause major problems. As talented as he is, this is a rough spot for him against a Detroit lineup that leans entirely right handed, but also hits RHP well (133 wRC+, 16.7 HR/FB so far). Cabrera (159 wRC+), Upton (130 wRC+), and J.D Martinez (137 wRC+) are the top bats against same handed pitching since last year. Nick Castellanos, one of the few bats who struggles against RHP for this team (81 wRC+ since last season) takes a seat in favor of Mike Aviles. Victor Martinez has a 96.3 average exit velocity in seven batted balls against Ventura since last season with two career HRs. This is a matchup perhaps best avoided, where there are severe confidence issues on either side.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Justin Upton, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Yordano Ventura Velazquez looks to follow up on 16 K, 3 hit shutout
It was one of the most dominant performances you’ll ever see. It was also against the Padres. His first start against these Mets (3 hits, 9 Ks, 24 batters) was equally as dominant. Velazquez at still less than $10K is likely to be the most popular pitcher on the board and he certainly has the ability to dominate again, but it might not be a stone cold lock. The Mets have begun to hit a little bit (126 wRC+, 33.8 Hard%, 17.7 HR/FB over the last week) and there’s a reason Houston agreed to part with him. That reason may be his double digit walk rate over the last two years, including a 9.1 BB% in 55.2 innings with the big club last year. That said, he’s increased his Zone% from 47.4 to 60.9 through two starts in which he’s struck out nearly half (46.3%) of the batters who’ve faced him. He absolutely could mow down the Mets, who are projected for the 2nd lowest run total tonight (3.3) again and there’s little interest in the high risk of rostering their bats tonight, as long as his previous control issues don’t resurface. The lean is more towards heavy exposure, but a few GPP fade lineups wouldn’t be insane.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Rockies face top prospect Stephenson instead of Simon
Alfredo Simon was scratched earlier with top prospect Robert Stephenson taking his place. Stephenson has struck out batters at a well above average rate at every stop on his way to the majors, but has also featured a double digit walk rate at many of those stops as well. His first major league start showed a lot of the bad (two walks, two HRs), but little of the good (one strikeout). While this is a significant upgrade in talent from Simon, the results may not be there yet. Gonzalez (107 wRC+, 156 wRC+) and Arenado (119, 132) are the only two batters who are both above average on the road and vs RHP since last year with any sort of sample size, although Ben Paulsen (103, 105) is about average in both spots and Trevor Story continues to smash anything he makes contact with in his first month (281 foot average distance and 56 Hard%, although a lot of that is thanks to Colorado). Arenado additionally has a 51.9 Hard% over the last week. Those Rockies bats who might have shown potential value against Simon can still be used against Stephenson as he does not yet seem a finished product, but probably carry more risk against a pitcher with talent. Colorado still has one of the highest run projections of the night (4.5 runs) even after the pitching switch.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ben Paulsen, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Robert Stephenson Stroman has 3.31 GB/FB, but just 14.0 K% through three starts
This might be another situation to entirely avoid. Marcus Stroman is developing into more of a ground ball pitcher (3.31 GB/FB, 26.9 Hard% through three starts) than a strikeout one (14.0 K%, 7.4 SwStr%) and though his price is starting to drop, he faces one of the tougher lineups in the majors in a tough park. On the other side, it’s going to be tough for batters to elevate, especially RHBs (61.8 GB% career), though someone like Chris Davis (167 wRC+, .363 ISO vs RHP since last season) with a 270.5 foot average distance this month is still a major threat to get one out against any pitcher.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis Smyly has 15.8 SwStr% through two starts
Drew Smyly allowed 3 HRs to Toronto in his first start, but struck out 11 of 26 Indians in his second and now sits with a 15.8 SwStr%, remaining one of the most under-rated lefties in the game. Additionally, what’s perceived as a very tough spot in Boston along with his poor performance against the mighty Blue Jays combine to keep his cost below $9K on both major sites tonight. Boston is a tough place for opposing lefties to pitch, but its a lineup that can be pitched too and Smyly has .303 wOBA vs RHBs since last season. He’s not afraid to throw his fastball up in the zone to generate swings and misses. I’d probably refrain from attacking him with Boston bats despite some strong wRC+ numbers against LHP since last season: Young (161), Shaw (153), Hannigan (144), Boegarts (142), Bradley (139), Betts (128), Pedroia (120). I’d expect many of those numbers to regress against good pitching and lefties have neutralized Ortiz (88 wRC+). Smyly is a risky play in Boston, but with the potential to return significant value. The Red Sox have a team 95 wRC+ over the last week with only the two lefties in tonight’s lineup hitting above average (100+ wRC+) among those with at least 10 opportunities over this period.
Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Chris Young, Travis Shaw, Ryan Hanigan, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia Piscotty sits, Adams back in cleanup spot vs Hammel
The Cardinals continue to shuffle batters in and out of the cleanup spot as Stephen Piscotty is the one with a seat tonight in favor of Matt Adams. It didn’t help them last night as they were shut out at home. Tonight they have to deal with not only Jason Hammel, but also potential thunderstorms (you’ll want to watch for Kevin’s late update). Hammel has only allowed one run, but walked seven in his 12 innings so far. He’s in a tough spot, not cheap, and rarely sees the 7th inning, but could be a formidable opponent for these Cardinals. Hammel has no real platoon split and St Louis has several tough bats against RHP, including Carpenter (154 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), Hazelbaker (165 wRC vs RHP), and Grichuk (146 wRC+ vs RHP). Matt Holliday hits RHP well too and has a 255.97 average distance so far, one of the better marks in the league with Carpenter and Grichuk also above 250 feet. While the best move is to probably avoid this game with all of the uncertainty, the more interesting move might be some of the St Louis bats.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jason Hammel, Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk Braves have 14 wRC+, 0 HR, 22.5 Hard% in 131 PA vs LHP
It’s a small sample size, but suffice to say the Braves have been terrible and are expected to remain bad against LHP (14 wRC+, 0 HR, 22.5 Hard% in 131 PAs). If you’re using Alex Wood it’s due to low cost and the fact that he’s facing his old team with little to do with his own merits or upside. While an 11.8 K% and 9.8 BB% through two starts is pretty pathetic, he’s at least keeping the ball on the ground (24 of 38 batted) and generating weak contact (-17.5 Hard-Soft%). With so much expected contact on the ground tonight, there’s really little interest in the Atlanta side of things. One surprise might be Adonis Garcia though, with a 147 wRC+ at home and 141 wRC+, .271 ISO vs LHP since his call up. Alex Wood his a reasonable and cheap complementary pitcher on DraftKings ($6K) entirely because of who he is facing at this point, though his 9.0 SwStr% does suggest at least a little better for his current 11.8 K%. Atlanta has one of the lowest projected run totals (3.4) of the night.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adonis Garcia Andres Blanco bats 3rd for Phillies tonight
Andres Blanco had a surprising 136 wRC+ last season, though a lesser 118 vs RHP, in about a half season worth of PAs (261). That’s enough to bump Maikel Franco down to the 5th spot against spot starter Logan Verrett tonight. Verrett has acquitted himself well in his limited opportunities in this capacity for the Mets over the last year, occasionally struggling with control, but missing a near league average number of bats. He’s a viable secondary option on DraftKings for the low cost in a good spot (Phillies 55 wRC+ at home, 75 wRC+ vs RHP so far), but don’t expect too much. The two through five batters in the order for Philadelphia all have hit RHP decently since last season (114 – 129 wRC+) with Ryan Howard suddenly more of a threat to go deep again (.246 ISO vs RHP since last year). They could be used as a small contrarian stacks or individually against Verrett as well, though Maikel Franco loses just a touch of value with the two spot drop in the order.
Other tagged players: Logan Verrett, Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard Strasburg has a reverse platoon split (.249/.318 wOBA) since last season
This will be the first start of the season for Strasburg that doesn’t feature the Atlanta Braves as his opposition, which makes his 61.8 GB% and -5.7 Hard-Soft% hard to take too seriously. The Marlins should be a bit tougher offensively and we still don’t really know how big of a role the new OF dimensions will play in that park, but everything else looks fine under hood and at least he’s been able to skip the BABIP dramatics early on so far that have haunted him in recent seasons. Strasburg is the highest priced pitcher tonight and stands a good chance of accumulating one of the top point totals. He’s not necessarily the most reliable (that pitcher is nowhere to be found today), but he should be able to get the job done and is usable in all formats. For the Marlins, Strasburg has exhibited an extreme platoon split since last season with a .249 wOBA vs LHBs and .318 vs RHBs. Perhaps, Giancarlo Stanton (132 wRC+, .269 ISO, 44.6 Hard%) isn’t crazy as a likely low owned HR threat for a GPP lineup or two. The Marlins have one of the lowest projected run totals on the board (3.4).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton Julio Teheran scratched, Williams Perez to start for Atlanta
With Teheran scratched, the Dodger bats are now in a much better spot. The lefties towards the top of the lineup get a noticeable bump in value, but the entire lineup’s outlook improves with this news.
Other tagged players: Williams Perez