DFS Alerts

Pineda has 14.1 SwStr% through two starts, 20.2 HR/FB at home since 2015

Michael Pineda has encountered two tough offenses to start the season (Hou, Tor) and has struggled according to his 6.55 ERA, but also has a 14.1 SwStr% that suggests even better than his 22.5 K%. The story is the same as last year so far. He misses bats, has excellent control, but allows too many HRs in Yankee Stadium. He gets a step down in competition today, though the A’s do have some strong hitters vs RHP. Pineda is a high upside arm for his price, though possibly not one you might really trust outside GPPs. The two through seven hitters with the exception of Lowrie (69 wRC+) all have hit RHP at an above average rate (120-135 wRC+, .200-.251 ISO) since last season. With Pineda’s solid DFS reputation, you can expect low ownership of these bats. You could take a chance that at least one of them (Reddick, Vogt) goes deep tonight, while Pineda could still pitch relatively well and accumulate fantasy points. Of course, you don’t want to try both of these theories in the same lineup.

Joey Votto has a 168 wRC+ vs LHP

Jorge de la Rosa isn’t terrible, but retains a high HR/FB even outside Colorado (12.9 HR/FB Away since last season) and faces a solidly right handed lineup in a power hitter’s park. The Reds have an early 26.1 HR/FB vs LHP in 119 PAs. That number won’t hold, but it’s an early sign of how well they’re seeing the ball against southpaws. One of the two LHBs in the lineup is actually the team’s most productive bat against LHP. Joey Votto has a 168 wRC+, .194 ISO vs lefties since last season. Cozart (133 wRC+) and Suarez (155 wRC+) have both hit LHP well in small samples since last season as well. Surprisingly, there are no other pronounced above average hitters against lefties in this lineup, though you’d expect Mesoraco to get there when he gets some opportunities under his belt after missing last season. That leaves us without a lot drawing us to either side in this matchup, though a small stack atop the Cincinnati lineup could be interesting.

There are three games that are YELLOW/ORANGE (orange = delay likely, PPD possible) per RG Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s Tuesday forecast. Those trouble spots are all games in the Midwest – MIL@MIN, DET@KC, CHC@STL. You’ll want to keep a close eye on those games before rostering players from those teams, especially SP’s. Check out the RG Main Forum for Roth’s forecast – he’ll continue to update it throughout the day as conditions change or when he gets more information.

Alfredo Simon scratched for Reds tonight; Robert Stephenson to start

Simon will miss tonight’s game with right biceps tendinitis and will be replaced by Robert Stephenson who was just called up from AAA. Stephenson made one start earlier this season and was underwhelming giving up six hits, two walks, two homers, while striking out just one while picking up a cheap win against the Phillies. Stephenson is a top prospect with good K potential (struck out 140 in 134 IP between AA and AAA last season) but has command issues (70 walks in those same 134 IP) and is prone to giving up HR’s (18 allowed in 136 2/3 IP in AA in 2014). The sad thing is, Stephenson might be an upgrade over Simon who had a .369 wOBA to LH bats last season and a .320 wOBA to RH bats. Anyone in the top six of the Rockies lineup should be in play tonight.

Left-handed bats the place to look in Brewers-Twins game

The only early afternoon game of the day sees two pitchers that struggle against left-handed hitters take the mound. Ervin Santana, the Twins SP, has a career .337 wOBA allowed to LH bats including .346 in 2015. His counterpart, Wily Peralta, has a career .355 wOBA allowed to LH bats with his 2015 number being a staggering .376. Peralta also struggles getting out hitters from the right side of the plate having allowed a .349 wOBA to them last season. From the Brewers side, we’ll want to target Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Villar. If you are looking for a punt option, Kirk Nieuwenhuis gets the start and bats sixth and has a .187 ISO against RH pitching. Ryan Braun is also in play but his price tag is a bit high for a so-so match up. From the Twins side, we can look to a number of bats including lefties Joe Mauer and Oswaldo Arcia. The rest of the top six of the order (Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Byung-ho Park) are also in play going against Peralta. You definitely want to avoid Peralta as a SP option but Santana is a huge favorite (-161) and with just middling lefties on the Brewers roster, he could surprise with a solid outing.

Giants are a stackable team against Bradley tonight

As a result of Bradley’s major league inexperience (35 career IP), we don’t know a whole lot about his true potential thus far. What we do know however, is that he will square off against a team playing at home with a projected run total just under 4.3 runs. Bradley’s 2015 FIP of nearly 5 is clearly nothing to write home about, and provides us with an opportunity to pick some SFG bats against him tonight. Hitters 1-5 are all in play here: Denard Span (.381 wOBA – 124 wRC+ in 2015 vs RHP), Buster Posey (.362 wOBA – 138 wRC+ in 2015 vs RHP) and Brandon Belt (.362 wOBA – 137 wRC+ in 2015 vs RHP) provide great targets in any format tonight. Also to be considered tonight are Joe Panik (.369 wOBA – 142 wRC+ in 2015 vs RHP) and Hunter Pence (.216 ISO – .370 wOBA – 143 wRC+ in 2015 vs RHP). Roster the Giant hitters with confidence tonight.

There appears to be one problem spot on the map tonight and that’s in Minnesota for the game between the Brewers and Twins. Hughes and Anderson looked like they might be two of the more usable mid-range pitchers tonight, but there is the risk of at least a delay here. Kevin thinks it will should get in, but can’t make any promises that there won’t be a problem. Check out his full report on the game on our Weather Page linked below.

Lamb bats 2nd in SF vs Peavy with Brito demoted to AAA

Socrates Brito was batting 2nd against RHP for Arizona, but was demoted this afternoon after not performing well according to Rotoworld. Jake Lamb benefits by moving into the two hole tonight. He has just a 98 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but anyone gains at least some value hitting in front of Goldschmidt (154 wRC+, .247 ISO, 39.7 Hard% vs RHP since last season). David Peralta (147 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) joins him as the only other above average bat against righties since last season in one of the toughest parks in the majors to hit in, especially at night early and late in the season. By default, this makes a very mediocre Jake Peavy one of the potentially better mid-range plays tonight. He’s nowhere close to what he once was, but did have an amazing 20.5 SwStr% in his last start in Colorado. Arizona is an average team away from home and a positive matchup in a tough environment. Peavy (.326 wOBA vs RHBs, .316 wOBA vs LHBs) hasn’t had much of a platoon advantage since last season and should have enough left to handle this lineup reasonably well at home. He’s certainly not the top option or value, but is can be useful if you’re forced to look in his price range.

Trevor Plouffe out, Twins in good position tonight vs Chase Anderson

Following their three game sweep of the Angel’s this weekend, the Twins will begin a new series against Chase Anderson and the Brewers tonight. Actually a reverse splits pitcher, right handed hitters hold a .339 wOBA against him, making a few of the Twin’s appealing options. Riding the hot hand of Eduardo Nunez, who is 10-17 and averaging 12.6 DK ppg over his last five, could serve as a very viable play. While not a safe cash game play, the slumping Miguel Sano should be considered an elite GPP play tonight, given his ability to exploit RH pitchers at home (.323 ISO – .458 wOBA – 196 wRC+ at home vs RH in 2015). Note that Trevor Plouffe was diagnosed with a right intercostal strain yesterday, and is not in tonight’s LU. As noted in Kevin Roth’s weather report, Minneapolis is expecting scattered showers this evening, so make sure to keep an eye on the RotoGrinders weather report for updates!

Cron dropped to 8th vs lefty Rodon, who struggles vs RHBs

C.J. Cron has dropped to the 8th spot against Carlos Rodon and this makes a bit of sense given his 74 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Rodon has dominated lefties (.236 wOBA), which is why you only see one in the lineup, but has been handled by RHBs (.347 wOBA). The young lefty has continued to have issues getting ahead of batters, as he walked five Twins in his last start. His 22.8 K% in the majors is nice, but it’s not elite, especially combined with his 11.6 BB%, yet he continues to command a price tag well above $8K. The Angels are an average offense, but lean heavily right-handed and could pose some problems for Rodon here. Trout (172 wRC+, .261 ISO, 38.3 Hard% vs LHP since last season) is the obvious name and one of tonight’s top bats, but Yunel Escobar (150 wRC+ vs LHP) is an interesting and affordable 3B option. At a weak Catcher position tonight, take a look at Geovany Soto’s 127 wRC+ vs southpaws over the last year plus. Rodon is talented, but still a work in progress could potentially struggle here at was seems like it could be an over-pay.

Lawrie has a 133 wRC+ vs LHP since last year

Brett Lawrie might be an under-owned 2B option tonight as he has a 133 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and a 225 wRC+ over the last week. In fact, he is one of six batters with a 105 wRC+ or better vs southpaws over that span with Melky Cabrera (56 wRC+), Adam Eaton (86 wRC+), and Jose Abreu (81 wRC+) shockingly being the exceptions. I don’t see this continuing in Abreu’s case with a 35.3 Hard% against them, making this an interesting stacking opportunity tonight. Todd Frazier leads the pack with a 131 wRC+, .335 ISO, 38.5 Hard% vs LHP since last season, even though he hasn’t been hitting all that well lately (83.75 avg exit velocity on 28 batted balls) and Jimmy Rollins hits better from the right side (124 wRC+ since last season) at this point in his career. Hector Santiago has generated more weak contact than usual over his first two starts (26.2 Hard%), but that hasn’t been the case throughout his career (30.4 Hard%). He’s up to his old BABIP tricks again (.205), but that won’t last, nor should his 5.5 BB% (10.2% career). He might miss a few bats, but is a below average pitcher with many flaws and should be a good pitcher to target with RH bats in a lineup projected to score 4.3 runs tonight.

Brewer bats make for interesting target against Phil Hughes

While Phil Hughes has actually pitched quite well through his first two starts (8.03K/9 – 22.5K ), he doesn’t exactly encounter a cake matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. With a projected run total just under 4, the Brewers are expected to put a few runs on the board. Chris Carter is a player who can always be considered in GPP’s given his HR potential. Though a very small sample size (31 AB’s), Carter has 3 HR’s against RHP this season and boasts a .414 ISO. In addition to Carter, Jonathan Lucroy (career .329 wOBA – 14.1 K vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (.207 ISO – .352 wOBA – 120 wRC+ vs RHP last year) both serve as viable targets against Hughes tonight. Please keep in mind that scattered showers are likely to occur in Minneapolis throughout the evening, so make sure to check Kevin Roth’s weather report (linked below) before line up lock!

Straily a potential bargain sleeper tonight

Looking at pitcher pricing tonight, there’s Syndergaard & Fernandez, then a lot of mush in the middle without a lot of upside, before Straily and his opponent tonight at the bottom. Straily had really bombed out of the majors after a decent rookie season in 2013 in Oakland. He did show an ability to miss a few bats early on, but hasn’t consistently hit 90 mph since that season. This winter, he visited the Kyle Boddy, often credited with helping Scott Kazmir recapture lost velocity, and was seen throwing 94 mph this March. That hasn’t carried over, but he’s back over 90 mph in three multi-inning outings out of the bullpen so far. The results haven’t been great with a HR and four walks in 8.1 innings, but he is missing bats too (23.5 K%, 11.9 SwStr%). It’s a high risk play in a tough park, but about almost as much upside as anyone below the top two exhibit tonight and even a quality start with a few strikeouts would be a jackpot at this low price. The Rockies haven’t been terrible on the road and decent vs RHP (117 wRC+, 18.3 K%, 32.7 Hard%, 18.8 HR/FB), so you shouldn’t avoid them if Straily isn’t in your lineup, but they do have a history of being atrocious away from Coors. Gonzalez (106 wRC+ Away, 155 wRC+ vs RHP) and Arenado (117 Away, 131 vs RHP) are the only above average hitters both on the road and vs RHP since the start of last season. Gerardo Parra (114 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is interesting in his new leadoff spot and Trevor Story doesn’t have enough of a track record to say he can’t hit away from Coors yet. Ben Paulsen has been average on the road and vs RHP. This is a spot where the Rockies could hit a few out of the park, but Straily could still provide value for $5K or less.

Eichkoff facing Mets for 5th time in 11th major league start

Almost half the times Jerad Eichkoff has started a major league game, there are the Mets. This will be his 11th major league start and 5th against the division rival Mets. They are no doubt familiar with him at by now and new number three hitter Michael Conforto (146 wRC+, .261 ISO, 43.2 Hard% vs RHP since being called up) has a 95.2 mph exit velocity in eight batted balls in this matchup. He may be the top value OF bat with his price not yet catching up to the lineup bump. Eichkoff had one great start against the Mets on the last week of the season after they had clinched everything last year, while the other three have been of the marginal variety. We don’t want to over-value the young pitcher’s great start against the Padres last week (seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts) because they are the Padres. His projected upside in most prospect publications is middle of the rotation arm, which is not nothing, but hardly terrific value with a daily fantasy price in the $7K to $8K range, as he appears tonight. There are so few mid-range options tonight that you may be forced onto him as a secondary pitcher, but the Mets offense has begun to heat up over the weekend. Yoenis Cespedes (146 wRC+, .264 ISO, 35.9 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) has a 213 wRC+ and 61.5 Hard% over the last week with a 261.98 average distance on batted balls this season (8th among those with 20+ batted balls). Note that Travis D’Arnaud sits again after being hit by a pitch this weekend.

Cubs have a 13.6 BB% vs RHP so far

Mike Leake has had a HR problem (13.6 HR/FB career) pitching in Cincinnati up until this season. Pitching in one of the toughest parks for power hitters, St Louis should help cure some of those ills and help him tonight against a lineup with a lot of power, but an otherwise tough matchup against an offense that has walked 13.6% against RHP so far. Leake does not have enough upside in his 16.8 K% over the last two calendar years here for us to consider him against a tough offense that has cut their strikeout rate to near average so far. He does generate ground balls at a two to one rate when he’s on though, so there might not be a ton to love on either side of this matchup being played in St Louis. Leake has held RHBs to a sub-300 wOBA since last season with LHBs hitting him at an average rate (.317 wOBA). Anthony Rizzo (145 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the top bat, but not a huge value at a high price. In eight batted ball events recorded by Statcast, Rizzo has a 95.9 mph average exit velocity against Leake. Kris Bryant (141 wRC+ vs RHP) has shown no issues with same handed pitching so far.