DFS Alerts

"Sale"ing Away in Chicago today

While there are weather concerns, Chris Sale still remains the clear cut top pitching option of the early slate and all day slate as the pitching options are lackluster at best outside of him, especially considering Sale is facing an anemic Angels offense that outside of Mike Trout and maybe Albert Pujols doesn’t strike much fear into the hearts of pitchers. Trout is always in play against a lefty, no matter who it is. Pujols isn’t what he used to be but he still does carry a .200+ ISO against southpaws and makes for a nice contrarian option. From the White Sox side, only two bats stick out as viable options – Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu.

Roth is most concerned about two of the early games with CHC@STL being classified an ORANGE and LAA@CWS a YELLOW/ORANGE. For those making all day lineups or early slate lineups, keep that in mind as it’ll have a definite impact, especially in regards to SP’s. For Roth’s full forecast that he’ll update throughout the day, check out the RotoGrinders.com main forum.

Weather a concern in Cubs-Cardinals game

RotoGrinders.com Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth is concerned about this game stating the following in his forecast – “One batch of storms is clearing east now, another one is expected to move in during the game. It’s not rain all day, but it does look like some healthy storms are possible, and if they sit over the stadium it could be trouble. ORANGE.” This means he feels a delay is likely and postponement possible. As such, tread cautiously when rostering players from this game, especially SP’s Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez. If you do want to target some bats, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant are your top options from the Cubs as all carry .370+ wOBAs against RHP. Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk all have .390+ wOBAs against RHP for the Cards and are your best bets to produce from that lineup. Matt Adams is a lefty batting clean up and comes in at a low price – he could be an excellent punt option if you’re looking for some value.

Joey Votto the top target in Rockies-Reds game

Two lackluster pitchers take the mound today against underwhelming offenses (especially when the Rockies are on the road) and Joey Votto is the top option of the two teams in regards to match ups. Chad Bettis takes the mound for the Rockies and while he allowed a .345 wOBA to RH bats last season that’s skewed by pitching at Coors as his road wOBA against RH bats was just .263. He’s much more vulnerable to lefties allowing a .321 wOBA in 2015 on the road. Joey Votto brings a .400+ wOBA against RHP and is joined by Eugenio Suarez (.350 wOBA at home vs RHP) and Jay Bruce (.230 ISO at home vs RHP) as players to target from the Reds. Raisel Iglesias (.285 wOBA allowed to RH bats) is somewhat of a sneaky SP option as the Rockies right-handed dominated lineup struggles on the road. Nolan Arenado and his .386 wOBA on the road against RHP is the Rockies top bat and if you’re looking for a contrarian stack, Carlos Gonzalez (.348 wOBA vs RHP on road), Gerardo Parra (.345 vs RHP), and Trevor Story (.358 wOBA vs RHP on road this season) would make a playable one.

Cain .409 wOBA vs LHBs since last year, Peralta 148 wRC+ vs RHP

Matt Cain is not what he once was, but we can’t judge too much of his most recent start in Colorado either. He allowed six runs, but did have a 15.4 SwStr%. If he is going to miss a few bats, he can still be effective as a fly ball pitcher at home at a low price. Though its a bit of a risk without a lot of upside, there aren’t many other upside or trustworthy arms in his price range if it comes to that. The Diamonbacks put some runs on the board last night, but they are generally just average on the road and are currently visiting one of the toughest parks to hit in. Goldshmidt (154 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Peralta (148 wRC+ vs RHP) are about it in terms of high potential bats. The fact that the park is death on lefty power is somewhat mitigated by Cain’s .409 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season and Peralta’s incomprehensibly low price on DraftKings ($3.3K).

Belt out, Giants take on LHP Ray at home

With Brandon Belt out of today’s lineup, Buster Posey slides over to 1B and Trevor Brown will take over catching duties while batting 5th tonight. Posey (.366 wOBA – .182 ISO – 140 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) provides us with arguably the best catching option on tonight’s slate, while Brown serves as a decent value play ($2.9K on DK – $2.2K on FD) hitting out of the five hole. Hunter Pence (.245 wOBA – 57 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) struggled against LHP last year and shouldn’t be considered a cash game option. Given Ray’s relative effectiveness against lefties (27% Hard Hit Rate – 22.7K% – 8.23K/9 vs LH last year), there just isn’t much to like about the SFG offense tonight while playing in a pitcher friendly park.

McCutchen 274 ft avg distance this season, 140 wRC+ vs RHP

Colin Rea has come out of seemingly nowhere to climb the San Diego prospect ladder all the way to number three on Fangraphs this year. That might say more about their gutted system than him, but he is projected as a potential mid-rotation arm, though it might be more contact management than strikeouts. It’s probably best to skip over him and his 6.0 SwStr% in 43 major league innings in a marginal spot, considering the Pirates have struck out just 16.5% against RHP so far. Despite all the baseballs that flew out of there last year, Petco hasn’t traditionally been friendly to hitters. However, Andrew McCutchen (140 wRC+) and Starling Marte (126 wRC+) have been strong against same handed pitching since last season and Rea (.367 wOBA vs RHBs) has shown a pronounced reverse split in a small sample. It’s not enough to be confident in by a long shot, but it’s all we got. McCutchen is also averaging 274.69 feet of distance, which is 3rd among those with 20+ batted balls. John Jaso has a 136 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and could score ahead of McCutchen a couple of times.

There are still a couple of potential problem areas in Kevin’s late forecast, but thankfully no red at least. The major issues seem to be in the state of Missouri with both Kansas City (vs Detroit) and St Louis (vs Chicago Cubs) at home in games that could be interrupted by rain. Be cautious when rostering players from those game and read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page linked below.

Shoemaker SwStr% (8.2) down, BB% (14.2%) up

Matt Shoemaker has had two very different starts, but three walks in each has been the only consistent for an early 14.2 BB%. Homers, not walks, have been his issue in the past and he’s allowed one of those. His 8.2 SwStr% is slightly reduced, so perhaps we want to put him on the back burner for $8.4K on FanDuel, but against a struggling offense, $5.3K on DraftKings might be worth a shot that he turns it around with a track record of some major league success. The White Sox have been awful. Adam Eaton has a 133 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and Jose Abreu a healthy 141 wRC+, but the slugger also has just a -2 wRC+ over the last week. Aside from those two there’s little appeal even with Shoemaker’s .341 wOBA vs RHBs since last season. Frazier (102 wRC+ vs RHP) and Cabrera (105 wRC+) are the only other batters who have even been average against righties and their new cleanup hitter has a paltry 83.49 exit velocity this season.

Don’t be fooled by Latos’ 0.75 ERA this season, as he owns an xFIP of 5.38

While Latos has only allowed 1 run during his 12 IP this season, his SIERA (4.89) and xFIP (5.38) numbers show that we can expect some serious regression coming his way soon. Normally we like to attack pitchers that own those kind of numbers, but the Angels roster doesn’t provide us with many adequate players to do so with. Of course, Mike Trout (.408 wOBA – .292 ISO – 168 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) should always be considered an option, but is struggling at the plate early on this season making him a GPP target (.307 wOBA – 25K% – .128 ISO). Albert Pujols (.339 wOBA – .230 ISO – 120 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) is also always a threat to leave the yard, but too has been struggling this season (.250 wOBA – 64 wRC+ – 140 ISO).

Liriano returns for prime matchup, but is he healthy (18.4 BB%)

On the surface, this is a cake walk and easy money on the mound. The Padres stack the order with RHBs that don’t really hit LHP all that well aside from Kemp (137 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) and Myers (132 wRC+ vs LHP). A couple of other bats Norris (115 wRC+) and Upton (116 wRC+) are average or slightly better, but then it quickly becomes a mess. The Padres have the lowest projected run total on the board (3.2 runs). A healthy Francisco Liriano is a ground ball and strikeout machine, who might walk a few too many batters, but he missed his last start with a hamstring issue and has walked 18.4% of the batters he’s faced in two starts prior. With batters from either side held below a .300 wOBA over the last year plus, there’s really no interest in the San Diego lineup and the question becomes completely about Liriano’s health. Unfortunately, we won’t entirely know until he’s on the mound. Consider him a moderately high risk, high reward starting pitcher tonight.

Jaime Garcia owns a 59.4% GB Rate since the 2015 season

While the Cubs Lineup has the potential to explode in any given game, their chances to do so tonight are greatly diminished with Garcia on the mound. Garcia, a groundball machine, has pitched exceptionally well in 15 IP so far this season (33.9K% – 18.2% Hard Hit Rate – 2.20 xFIP) making the Chicago bats relatively unappealing options. If you feel the need to have some exposure against Garcia, Dexter Fowler (.509 wOBA – .333 ISO – .378 AVG in 56 AB’s this year) has been on fire recently and Kris Bryant (.206 ISO – .348 wOBA – 140 wRC+ against LHP) hit well against lefties last year, giving him deep GPP consideration. Otherwise, it’s a wise decision to roster hitters from other teams who face much better matchups.

Top three Houston bats 145 wRC+ or better vs LHP

Jose Altuve (167 wRC+), George Springer (164 wRC+, .248 ISO), and Carlos Correa (145 wRC+, .276 ISO) all have pounded LHP since last season. Although Correa (15 wRC+ last seven days is struggling), he has five batted balls with an average exit velocity of 103.5 mph against Holland and Altuve (268 wRC+ last seven days) is as hot as Correa is cold. Additionally, Tyler White in the cleanup spot has averaged 252 feet on his batted balls, while Marwin Gonzalez is often a value play against LHP (132 wRC+ since last season). You may want to avoid Carlos Gomez though, who has just an 80.94 average exit velocity this season. Holland has looked a bit better and possibly healthier so far, but has stranded 84.9% of runners and allowed a lot of hard contact (20.0 Hard-Soft%). He’s allowed a .347 wOBA to RHBs since last season and Houston has the 2nd highest run projection tonight at 4.8 runs.per our Vegas Odds page.

Greene was pounded by LHBs last season (.415 wOBA)

According to a recent Fangraphs article, Shane Greene is throwing a new breaking ball, which led to some success in his first start, but there was some noise about him early last season before he was pummeled and banished to the minors. His velocity was up in that first start, but we’ll see, as he still has a .415 wOBA vs LHBs since last season. It’s often a losing proposition rostering pitchers against the Royals anyway, though they are striking out at a more league average rate so far this season. The middle of the order from two through seven are all solid bats vs RHP (105 wRC+ or better since last season) with Moustakas (122 wRC+), Hosmer (138 wRC+), and Morales (137 wRC+, .278 ISO) leading the way and in prime lineup spots. Moustakas also has a 47.4 Hard% over the last week. A Kansas City stack two through six could be profitable in this spot. If not, we’ll talk more about Greene next time out.

Mike Wright owns a pedestrian strikeout rate of just 13.3%

The Toronto hitters find themselves in a juicy matchup against Mike Wright tonight. Wright is not exactly an ace on the mound, owning an xFIP of 5.70, a strikeout rate of just 13.3%, and a SIERA of 5.15. Favorable results normally come from the Blue Jays hitters when they put the ball in play, which is what we expect them to do with ease tonight. Josh Donaldson (.390 wOBA – .256 ISO – 149 WRC+ vs RHP in 2015), Jose Bautista (.395 wOBA – .301 ISO – 152 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) and Edwin Encarnacion (.399 wOBA – .294 ISO – 155 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) all serve as elite options at their respective positions. Leadoff hitter Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki are also viable plays against the underwhelming Mike Wright. Stack hitters 1-5 with confidence tonight in GPP’s.