DFS Alerts

Jason Heyward, Miguel Montero, Ben Zobrist all OUT for Chicago

With the Cubs slated as huge favorites vs. the Rockies, they will use this opportunity to rest Heyward, Montero, and Zobrist and get a couple of right handed batters in there instead, as Christian Bergman really struggles with righties. They will be replaced by Matt Szczur, David Ross, and Javier Baez respectively. They will likely put Szczur in right field, slide Baez over to second and Ross will be behind the dish. This opens up some opportunity for these replacements to put up some numbers vs. the atrocious Bergman. His two outings this season are certainly not encouraging, including being pulled after the first inning vs. Arizona in which he gave up four runs. He gives up a crazy 0.423 wOBA vs. righties, so look to take advantage of the righties in the Cubs lineup (everyone but Rizzo, even though Bergman still owns a poor 0.340 wOBA vs. lefties). Oddly enough Bergman is a righty himself, so we should look to players that have done well vs. right handers over the season like Dexter Fowler (.540 wOBA, 0.292 ISO) or Kris Bryant (.456 wOBA, .296 ISO). The Cubbies will be a popular stack because of the juicy match-up with Bergman, and it would be wise to have at least a Cub or two in your lineups.

Rich Hill vs Royals

Hill, coming off a 10k effort against Seattle, will certainly have his hands full with the contact happy Royals tonight. Hill shouldn’t really be an option here, as the Royals own a league low 16.3% K rate against lefties. Although we don’t want to actively target Hill in this matchup, we don’t necessarily have to target any Royals tonight either. They hold a low projected team run total of 3.24, making them an unappealing team to target, especially given the other options on tonight’s slate. However, if you do want to have some exposure to the KC lineup, Salvador Perez (.171 IS0 – .326 wOBa career vs LHP) is a decent cheap option ($2.8k) at a catching position that can be tough to fill. Please note that it is currently past lineup lock, so if you do choose to roster players from this game, they will have to be used as swap options on DK.

ARI vs James Shields in Petco Park

James Shields will square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in San Diego. We are all aware of Shields’ issues keeping the ball in the park (1.49 HR/9 last year) and if this game was being playing in Chase Field, the D-back hitters would have been highly owned tonight. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case, as the game is being played in the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Park. With an O/U of 6.5, there isn’t a whole lot to like on the offensive side of things in this matchup. David Peralta (.215 ISO – .386 wOBA – 142 wRC+ career vs RHP) and Paul Goldschmidt (.226 ISO – .382 wOBA – 140 wRC+ career vs RHP) are two players who are definitely will go overlooked tonight, making them legitimate GPP plays.

Clayton Kershaw, as always, is the premiere pitching choice

Clayton Kershaw analysis might be boring and nearly writes itself. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and it would be near DFS suicide to attack him with the opposing offense (it works once or twice a year). The only question is if you can afford him, but there are some interesting affordable arms with some upside to pair him with on DraftKings. The Giants are a good offense, but Kershaw is the best pitcher on just about any slate in just about any matchup. The Giants, as expected, have the lowest projected run total tonight (2.71 runs). Kershaw has a deep history with several of these hitters, none of which have an average exit velocity above 93 mph, although Madison Bumgarner isn’t included.

It looks like another beautiful night across the country for DFS players tonight. There are a few light winds on the west coast, but nothing that should really affect any of these games much at all. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page linked below.

Greinke in great bounce back spot in San Diego (29.6 K% vs RHP)

Zack Greinke has not endeared himself to the Arizona fans yet, but that should change tonight. There were signs in his last start where he missed 13 bats despite allowing the Cubs to score four runs. The San Diego offense has been atrocious outside of a few games in Colorado. They have a 29.6 K% vs RHP in the early going; that’s 2nd worst in the majors. Nobody would guess it, but Melvin Upton Jr. owns the top bat vs RHP in this lineup with a 108 wRC+ since last year. Matt Kemp has a career 75 mph exit velocity (Baseball Savent) in 20 PAs vs Greinke. Nobody expects him to repeat 2015, but Greinke should still be an All Star caliber pitcher and should be under-owned tonight at a slightly reduced price in a great spot to bounce back. The Padres have the 2nd lowest run projection (2.91) on the board tonight.

6.0 O/U for LAD/SFG, lowest total of the night

The Dodgers get the tough task of facing Madison Bumgarner tonight, in a game that features the lowest O/U of the night (6). This means that we definitely want to consider the pitchers (well, duh – it’s Kershaw and Bumgarner we are talking about here) and refrain from taking many hitters. With that being said, there are a few LAD hitters that could serve as viable GPP options tonight if you think that they manage to get to Bumgarner tonight. Yasiel Puig is seeing the ball well right now and holds a .269 AVG with 2 HR’s in 28 AB’s vs Bumgarner while Enrique Hernandez is batting leadoff and holds an impressive .538 AVG with 1 HR in 13 AB’s against him.

Martin Perez .336 wOBA, 13.0 K% career vs RHBs

Martin Perez is actually fairly efficient vs LHBs (21.2 K%, .297 wOBA), but struggles with RHBs (13.0 K%, .336 wOBA), combining to form a package with little upside and not one really one you should consider against a tough lineup tonight. Meanwhile, Mark Trumbo has a 142 wRC+, .264 ISO, 39.4 Hard% vs LHP since the start of last season. If you take his strikeouts away, he’s very likely to hit the ball hard more than once tonight. He does have a 101.8 mph exit velocity and a HR in just 7 batted balls against Perez. Surprisingly, Nolan Reimold (121 wRC+) is the only other batter in the lineup above average vs LHP since last season. Machado has exhibited a reverse platoon split early in his career (100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), but has a 297 wRC+ over the last week.

Garrett Richards faces ice cold MIN bats tonight

Garrett Richards is in position for a nice bounce back start tonight against the strikeout prone Twins. Minnesota, who has been striking out an absurd 28.5% of their at-bats, just haven’t been able to get their bats going yet this season. They have posted a 66 wRC+ mark as a team, good for 3rd worst in the MLB. Unfortunately for them, they get to face high-upside strikeout pitcher Garrett Richards this evening. Potentially one of the most overlooked mid-tier pitching options on the slate, he holds a 26% strike out percentage this year and an average FB velocity of 96.5 MPH, good for the fourth fastest of all qualified starting pitchers. Richards serves as a nice GPP option tonight who will likely have a low ownership, resulting from the plethora of SP options available for this slate. If you are not a believer in Richards tonight however, you could take a look at Oswaldo Arcia (.234 ISO – .346 wOBA – 120 Wrc+ vs RHP in his career) who is hitting in the #5 tonight and may be worth a GPP flyer. Otherwise, there isn’t really much to like about the MIN bats tonight.

Keuchel has struggled, Detroit punishes LHP

Dallas Keuchel is in a bad spot tonight and perhaps it’s a good night for him to be in a bad spot (for us anyway) because we can easily let him go. There are some concerning signs through his first two starts. His velocity is down over a mile per hour, his SwStr% (6.5) is down from double digits, he’s still generating ground balls, but at a lesser rate (59.3% career – 54.8% so far) and they’re being hit harder (34.4 Hard%). He’s actually throwing more balls in the strike zone (44%), but batters are chasing out of the strike zone only 22% of the time so far (down from over 30% career). This is just a small two game sample, but all of this along with the fact that Detroit crushes LHP (146 wRC+ 2016 – 120 wRC+ last season) is enough to push him to the side while he tries to figure it out. A sneaky approach might even be to stack some Detroit bats against him. Ian Kinsler has a 99 mph exit velocity against Keuchel in 24 PAs (Baseball Savant). The following batters all have a wRC+ above 140 vs LHP since last season in addition to Kinsler (139): Cabrera (166), V.Martinez (152), Castellanos (162), Saltalamacchia (145), J.Martinez (156), and Iglesias (150). Justin Upton is surprisingly the odd man out (65 wRC+ vs LHP since last season), but has a 135 career mark against southpaws. .

Volquez velocity up and K% up, walk rate down

Edinson Volquez has seen his velocity tick up slightly and his walk rate decrease each of the last three seasons. Through two starts this season he has struck out 15 of 47 batters on a 13.9 SwStr%, averaging over 94 mph. He’s faced two weak offenses (Mets & Twins) to be sure, but Oakland has yet to get on track with just a 64 wRC+ vs RHP. Volquez is affordable and possibly remaining under the radar, pitching among mostly #1 starters on his turns so far. He’s not at home, but Oakland is just as spacious and suited to his talents. Oakland does have some decent bats against RHP, but Reddick (132 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, 203 wRC+ over the last week) and Valencia (138 wRC+ vs RHP, 178 wRC+ last seven days) are the only two who have started strong. Volquez could provide good value as an under-owned arm tonight.

HOU hitters look to shell Pelfrey tonight

With the highest Vegas run total of the evening (4.85), the Houston hitters make for a great stacking option for tonight’s slate. Their opponent, Mike Pelfrey, is no strikeout machine. A pitcher to contact, Pelfrey held a K/9 of just under 4.5 last year. With the chance of striking out minimized tonight, the HOU lineup should be able to put the ball in play and do some legitimate damage. Jose Altuve (career .345 wOBA – 119 wRC+ at home vs RHP) is always a threat to steal a bag or two, Carlos Correa (.324 wOBA – .363 ISO – 132 wRC+ career vs RHP) possesses the kind of power upside we look for in SSs, and Colby Rasmus (.329 wOBA – .243 ISO vs RHP in 2015) has been crushing RHP this season. All three of these guys serve as great cash or GPP plays tonight, although you can basically consider hitters 1-9 in this lineup for GPP’s, as almost nearly everyone has the ability to go yard. Evan Gattis offers very solid value at the catcher spot tonight, especially on FanDuel where he’s priced at just $2,500.

Texas projected for 2nd highest run total (4.77 runs) against Worley

Vance Worley has managed to eek out a major league career despite 5.5 career SwStr%. He uses deceptiveness to create more called strikes than the average pitcher, but that’s difficult to maintain and at times it’s come crashing down on him. That marks him as unreliable and not really to be considered tonight, although he is incredibly cheap, especially on DraftKings ($4.9K) and has occasionally pulled rabbits out of his hat. What makes this more confounding is that Texas should smack RHP around. They have the makings of a solid lineup and are projected for the 2nd highest run total of the night per our Vegas Odds page (4.77 runs). However, only Prince Fielder (138 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (125 wRC+, .223 ISO) have been above average against RHP since last season and even Fielder’s power is lacking in that capacity. Perhaps the focus should be on rookie sensation Nomar Mazara tonight, who bats 2nd and has compiled a 181 wRC+ with 38.9% of his batted balls being hit hard, striking out just 13.6% of his first 22 PAs. It’s a very small sample, but he’s inexpensive and in a good spot tonight.

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce serves as GPP options against Martinez tonight

Carlos Martinez will most certainly be a popular play tonight, given his strikeout rate of 24.2% and excellent matchup against the Reds. Cincinnati has struggled early on this season (team 90 Wrc+ – .146 ISO) and will have their hands full with Martinez tonight. If you are looking to go contrarian in GPP’s, Jay Bruce (22 HR – .232 ISO vs RHP in 2015) and Joey Votto (.235 ISO – .423 wOBA – 170 wRC+) are your guys. Otherwise, avoid the rest of the Reds LU and fire up Carlos Martinez with confidence.

Only Harper/Murphy have 91 or better wRC+ vs RHP in Nats lineup

Washington has the best hitter in baseball in their lineup (Harper – 206 wRC+, .359 ISO, 39.8 Hard% vs RHP since last season) and one of the best since October (Murphy – 128 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since last season – 290 wRC+ over the last week). These guys are primary targets nearly every time a non-elite RHP takes the mound against them. Tonight is no different. However, Anthony Rendon tops all other Washington bats with a 91 wRC+ vs RHP since the start of last season (among those in tonight’s lineup). Dusty Baker continues to force Michael Taylor into the leadoff spot despite his career .274 OBP in what amounts to exactly a full season (162 games, 584 plate appearances) now. Jeremy Hellickson is down over a mile per hour in his first two starts, but has walked just one while striking out 11 of 41 batters (11.2 SwStr%), better rates than he’s posted throughout his career. He’s doing it with off speed stuff (changeups & curveballs) nearly 50% of the time, but it’s looked good and missed bats so far. There are way stronger and much more trust worthy options tonight, but keep an eye on him and perhaps be cautious with Washington RH bats.