DFS Alerts
Slumping Mets hitters look to break out against CLE, Conforto hitting 3rd
The Mets haven’t been hitting well as of late, posting a league low .054 ISO and wOBA of just .243 throughout the past 7 days. They look to breakout offensively tonight against Anderson, who isn’t a likely candidate to rake up the K’s (4.12K/9 vs LH in 2015). Having the opportunity to put the ball in play tonight is just what the Mets need, as evidenced by their 26% K percentage over the last 7 days. Lucas Duda (.236 ISO – .354 wOBA – 130 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) and Michael Conforto (.256 ISO – .371 wOBA – 142 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) represent the top plays for the Mets tonight. Curtis Granderson (.225 ISO – .384 wOBA – 151 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) and Neil Walker (.180 ISO – .340 wOBA – 119 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) can also be considered in GPP’s, where their ownership may be lower than expected.
Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker
Bautista 99 mph exit velocity (3 HRs) vs Porcello, Martin sits
Josh Thole has frequently caught the knuckeballer R.A. Dickey ever since their Mets days, so Russell Martin gets the night off. Rick Porcello has marginally increased his strikeout rate, but also has developed a severe HR problem since arriving in Boston with 15% of his fly balls leaving the yard. That’s an issue since his GB% has significantly decreased as well. He also has a Toronto problem tonight. Jose Bautista has three career HRs off of Porcello and an average 99 mph exit velocity (Baseball Savant). If we’re being fair though, both Donaldson (23 PAs) and Encarnacion (29 PAs) have exit velocities below 90 mph against him. All three smash RHP for a wRC+ between 145-160 since last season with ISOs well above .250. Kevin Pillar (95 wRC+) isn’t nearly as prolific, but gains a lot of value just by association at the top of the strongest order in baseball. Surprisingly, the Blue Jays are only middle of the board in projected runs tonight with 3.99
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Rick Porcello, Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, Josh Thole
Stanton has a .275 ISO, 45.2 Hard% vs RHP, 161 wRC+ at home since 2015
Giancarlo Stanton has a .275 ISO, 45.2 Hard% vs RHP, 161 wRC+ at home since last season and now they’ve moved the fences in. Williams Perez’s days should be numbered in any starting rotation. He’s walked 10.1% of the batters he’s faced and allowed 14 HRs in just 121.1 career innings. He generated just 4.8% swings and misses in his first start, which didn’t last long. Dee Gordon should be able to get on and run wild or just wait for Yelich (128 wRC+ vs RHP since last year) or Stanton to drive him in. Justin Bour is a LH power bat (125 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP), who is slumping and has dropped in the order, but Perez has allowed a .376 wOBA to LHBs. Miami has the 4th highest run projections (4.34) on our Vegas Odds page tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dee Strange-Gordon, Williams Perez, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich Braves take on LHP Chen in Miami
Atlanta (0-9) travels to Miami to take on Wei-Yen Chen and the Marlins tonight. The Braves have been…terrible this season. As a team, the Braves hold a league low 53 wRC+ and rank nearly last in every major offensive category. There is really nobody worth targeting from this lineup, with the exception of Adonis Garcia. Last year, he bombed lefties (.310 ISO – .412 wOBA – 188 wRC+) during a small sample size of 58 AB’s. He’s definitely worth a look if you are in need of some salary cap relief ($3.3k on DraftKings – $2.2k on Fanduel).
Other tagged players: Wei-Yin Chen Jimmy Nelson had 9 Ks, but just a 7.8 SwStr% in his last start
Jimmy Nelson is a talented, but flawed arm and his 24.0 K% might be misleading with just a 6.3 SwStr% through two outings, including the numbers in the headline from his last start. An 8.2 BB% and 11.2 HR/FB in his short career make him very difficult to trust with little need to step out on such a limb tonight. A park upgrade in Pittsburgh should help some with the long ball issues, but the Pirates have some good RH hitters against same handed pitchers and the walks could get him in trouble. This is really a matchup where it might not make much sense to attack hard from either side. Though Jaso (133 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is a patient hitter at the top who might take advantage of bad control and put himself in a position to be driven in by McCutchen (142 wRC+ vs RHP), Marte (123 wRC+ vs RHP), or Cervelli (117 wRC+), who is often an under-rated option behind the plate and finds himself higher in the order this year.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Jimmy Nelson Kiermaier only LHB vs Sale (.289 wOBA vs RHBs career)
Because he has a career .237 wOBA allowed to LHBs and because you have to take all the help you can get, the Rays are lining up with eight RH bats against Chris Sale tonight. The bad or even worse news is that it’s no picnic from that side either (.289 wOBA). Sale hasn’t exactly gotten the machine in gear yet, but still has still struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced through two starts. The Rays were successful with this heavy platoon approach last season (110 wRC+ vs LHP), but we want no part of bats against Sale. He matches the upside of any pitcher in the league, though perhaps has more of a downside than Kershaw, which is why he costs slightly less. He’s a pitcher you want in your lineup if you can afford him and is generally worth finding a way to if you can’t.
Cleveland has just 3 LHBs vs Bartolo Colon and a 26.4 K%
Cleveland is running what looks to be their LHP platoon lineup out there against RHPs lately with Rajai Davis leading off, though he does have a 109 wRC+ vs RHP since last season. Jason Kipnis (154 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) combines to make a potentially potent one/two combo. Francisco Lindor (115 wRC vs RHP) is the next best bat against RHP in the lineup with cleanup hitter Mike Napoli at just a 63 wRC+ vs righties. Despite a below average strikeout rate, this kind of makes Bartolo Colon someone to potentially consider if you think he can generate 12 to 15 DK fantasy points for $5.3K. I wouldn’t expect him to strike out seven again, but he has league average ERA estimators last season and Cleveland has a 26.4 K% so far.
Other tagged players: Francisco Liriano, Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli, Bartolo Colon Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann provide nice GPP upside at home
Nate Karns is no longer in the AL East, but he’ll face a familiar foe in the Yankees this evening. Karns actually pitched well against this team last season (28 Ks in 21.2 IP, just 19 total hits/walks), but the sample size was fairly small and this Yankees offense possesses a ton of power potential at home. While he didn’t get beat much by the HR ball last season, Karns owned a fairly low 7.9% HR/FB rate against lefties, and we can expect that number to jump up in Yankee Stadium. Mark Teixeira owns a very strong .385 ISO when hitting at home against RHP, giving him a very nice ceiling especially considering that he’s not going to be one of the more popular plays at 1B. Brian McCann is off to a red-hot start and also performs best when he’s at home against a righty, as we can see with his .285 ISO in that split. Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran are also in play, but they are more of secondary options that are best left for large-field tournaments.
Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Nate Karns
Seattle tries Seth Smith in the two spot against Severino
Seth Smith bats 2nd for the 2nd consecutive day as the Mariners have tried a number of hitters in that slot over the first couple of weeks. Luis Severino is a talented arm, but maybe a bit more of a work in progress than his numbers in his rookie season showed. An ERA of 2.89 was backed by estimators about a run higher due to a .265 BABIP and 87.0 LOB%. He also allowed a 17.3 HR/FB at home and is in a dangerous spot against a potent Seattle tonight with the top six all well above average against RHP. There are safer places to look for pitching tonight. Seth Smith may be pinch hit for, but may also get an extra attempt in the two spot (126 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season). Robinson Cano (132 wRC+ vs RHP) and Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+) might add to a nice contrarian little stack tonight with many people likely opting to avoid attacking a highly rated prospect in Severino.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano Dickey ($5.9K on DK) struck out nine of 26 Red Sox last week
R.A. Dickey saw his K% crater to below 15% last year, but has generated an 11.5 SwStr% through two starts this year leading to striking out 9 Red Sox in his last outing. We don’t want to get too excited and may even prefer to avoid this spot against a dangerous Boston lineup at home, but note that he costs only $5.9K on DraftKings on a night where you’ll likely need a cheap compliment for your stud and if he can even get his strikeout rate back close to 19% where it’s been the last few season, he can be interesting this year. David Ortiz has been smashing RHP for a 166 wRC+ since last season with a .332 ISO (43.5 Hard%) since last season. He has 3 career homers against Dickey in 28 plate appearances, but just an 87.1 mph exit velocity (Baseball Savant). Most of the rest of the Boston offense has been merely average vs RHP over the last year plus, but do those numbers even mean anything against a knuckleballer. No Red Sox hitter with data has a very impressive exit velocity against Dickey. Note that Christian Velazquez returns to the Boston lineup for the first time in a year with Blake Swihart being sent down to the minors.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: R.A. Dickey Trout has .266 ISO vs LHP
Tommy Milone is a fly ball pitcher who generates a lot of pop ups and can survive in the right park. Minnesota is not a bad environment for his skill set, but plays relatively average against RH power with Milone allowing a .329 wOBA to batters from that side since last season. Mike Trout is pretty even in his dominance with a 177 wRC+ on the road and 176 wRC+ vs LHP since last season with a 176 wRC+ over the last week. He also has a .266 ISO, 39.0 Hard% vs lefties over that same period. He’s expensive, but in a great spot against a fly ball pitcher tonight. Yunel Escobar in the leadoff spot has a 143 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Surprisingly, the Angels have no other bats that have been even average against LHP since last season, including Pujols (91 wRC+) and Cron (74 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Tommy Milone, Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron Odorizzi has 6.6 HR/FB at home
Odorizzi may have struck out just four Orioles, but still missed a decent amount of bats and preceded that with 10 strikeouts in his first start against the Blue Jays. He excels in a big home park by not letting the ball leave it (6.6 HR/FB at home since last season) and striking out batters at a bit above a league average rate. He has a big reverse platoon split, allowing RHBs a .321 wOBA, but LHBs just a .291 wOBA in his career to this point. Jose Abreu hits RHPs very well (144 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since last season), but as mentioned, it’s difficult to go yard against Odorizzi at home. Todd Frazier has a .208 ISO vs RHBs, but is just average overall. Odorizzi is reasonably priced and projects for a fine performance at home tonight with the Sox only tabbed for 3.54 runs per our Vegas Odds page. He is one of several fine secondary mound choices on a pitching rich night. Note that he goes against Chris Sale tonight though, making a potential W more difficult.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier Burress, Galvis atop Phillies order, Hernandez sits
The Phillies have shaken up the top of their order with Emmanuel Burriss leading off and Freddy Galvis moving to the two spot. Everyone else moves down a spot with Cesar Hernandez taking a seat. They face Joe Ross, who has struggled with LHBs (.355 wOBA), but dominated RHBs (.206 wOBA). Herrera and Howard are the only left-handed Philadelphia bats above average vs RHP since last season and only barely so via wRC+, though Howard does have a .245 ISO and 41.4 Hard% in these spots. Ross (21.8 K%) has exhibited some ability to miss bats in his short career and is very reasonably priced against a poor offense today. He’s one of many places to look for a solid secondary mound option today. The Phillies are projected for just 3.42 runs via our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Emmanuel Burriss, Freddy Galvis, Odubel Herrera Melville a 26 year old non-prospect in a tough spot in St Louis
Timothy Melville is a 26 year old rookie who doesn’t show up on any prospect lists. He’s on his 3rd organization before making it to the majors and has had a well below average K% in the high minors the last few years. There might be something about a first time through the league unseen bonus like what Ross Stripling is currently experiencing, but Melville has walked four of the first 21 batters he’s seen and the Cardinals are a very tough team against RHP. The RH heart of the order (Holliday, Piscotty, and Grichuk) are all strong against same handed pitchers with Holliday (118 wRC+, .130 ISO) the only one below a 130 wRC+, .180 ISO since the start of last season. Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .251 ISO) should be a top 3B option tonight as well.
Other tagged players: Tim Melville, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk Pittsburgh kills RH power, but Locke is a low upside arm
Jeff Locke is not in a bad spot at home against a high strikeout lineup in a park that kills RH power, but is one of the lower upside arms on the board today with just a 16.7 K% over a trailing two year period. He may be able to up that to near a league average rate against an offense that has struck out in 28.7% of their plate appearances, but might still not be worth the effort at a mid-range price or on one pitcher sites. It’s not impossible to hit the ball out to LF, but Pittsburgh houses one of the toughest parks in baseball on RH power and Locke is a fairly heavy ground ball pitcher, leaving little to like on the rebuilding Milwaukee side either. One exception might be Domingo Santana in the leadoff spot with a 163 wRC+, .254 ISO, and 37.5 Hard% vs LHP at a low price and the power to hit it out of any park. Ryan Braun has a 149 wRC+, .220 ISO, 40.0 Hard% vs LHP over the last two years, but costs quite a bit more.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Jeff Locke