DFS Alerts
Jerry Sands hitting 5th, Austin Jackson batting 2nd; Melky Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins not in the lineup
Sands was one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago. He’s never really materialized in the big leagues, but he’s making good on his early opportunities with the White Sox. He’ll slot into the five-spot tonight with Melky Cabrera out of the lineup, and given his near minimum price tag across the industry, he’s a viable GPP punt play against the sometimes erratic Matt Moore. With Jimmy Rollins out of the lineup, Tyler Saladino will get the start at SS and will bat ninth. Moore allowed a .375 wOBA to RH bats last season, so those are the bats we’ll want to target here, although Moore wasn’t terribly effective against lefties either. Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu are both very strong options, while Austin Jackson provides nice value out of the two-spot.
Other tagged players: Melky Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins
Corey Kluber takes on the Mets in Cleveland this afternoon
Kluber and Jon Lester are the two top arms on the slate, but we’ll give Kluber the slight nod despite his relatively rocky start to 2016. His numbers at home last season were outstanding (.280 wOBA allowed, 9.30 K/9, 3.01 FIP) and we should expect him to start normalizing towards those rates as we get deeper into the season. He’ll take on a Mets lineup that does boast some power from the left side (Granderson, Conforto and Duda), so this isn’t necessarily the type of match-up that would make Kluber the clear-cut top play. It’s not like Kluber struggles with lefties (9.86 K/9, 3.25 FIP), so the presence of the three aforementioned bats isn’t overly concerning. Lester is a fine pivot against a Rockies team that typically struggles with left-handers on the road, as is Michael Wacha who takes on the Reds at home.
Rangers-Orioles postponed due to weather
There is expected to be rain throughout the day in Arlington, which has forced the Rangers to call off this afternoon’s game. Make sure not to roster any players from this contest.
Yasiel Puig, Howie Kendrick not in the Dodgers lineup
This doesn’t appear to be injury related, so it’s likely just a standard day of rest for Puig and Kendrick. The match-up improves slightly for Johnny Cueto due to their absences, but it’s still not a great spot for him and it’s smarter to shell out some extra cap to acquire Max Scherzer’s services. This game in general is probably best left alone; neither offense is appealing given the opposing SP, but the pitchers themselves are facing offenses that aren’t generally friendly.
Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick Andrew Cashner, Shelby Miller both viable SPs this evening
The ARI/SD tilt has a total of just 7, something the spacious Petco Park certainly played into. While neither Cashner or Miller are usually strong plays, they are both in favorable situations tonight. Cashner is a different pitcher at home which makes sense given the lack of offense produced in Petco, but it’s fairly surprising that his strikeout totals have been markedly better at home over the last two seasons. He owned a 9.75 K/9 rate at home last season (just 6.62 on the road) including a FIP and xFIP under 3.00, numbers that make him look like an elite option. The Arizona offense is potent, but they don’t boast many left-handed bats (David Peralta is the big concern for Cashner) which plays into Cashner’s favor. As for Miller, he’ll take on what looks to be the worst offense in baseball in a pitcher friendly environment, something he’ll surely welcome after back-to-back starts in Chase Field. Much like Cashner, Miller benefits a bunch from the lack of left-handed bats in the Padres lineup, as he owned a 2.88 FIP and K/9 of 8.3 against RHs last season. The two have very similar outlooks tonight, although Miller is likely the safer target given the offense he’ll face.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner Beltre, Fielder, Mazara, Moreland in nice spots against Gallardo
The Rangers have the highest team total on the slate, and the only thing that could cloud the outlook in this one is if the radar eventually shows more rain heading towards Arlington. Things don’t look overly concerning at this point (if you are not interested in the risk, no other games have weather concerns), and the 10 total in this game make it hard to stay away from. Gallardo hasn’t been notably worse when facing lefties over the course of the past 3-4 seasons, but the left-handed bats towards the top of the lineup are in the best spot. Prince Fielder finished 2015 with a healthy .392 wOBA and 146 wRC+ against RHs, but his .164 ISO was a bit of a disappointment. Still, he’s very good at getting on base and doesn’t strike out much (1.14 BB/K ratio), so his floor makes him a nice target in cash games. Adrian Beltre is a better target against LH pitching, but his hard and soft contact rates are almost identical regardless of the pitcher’s handedness. Mitch Moreland is a really nice GPP target with his power upside (.234 ISO vs. RHs last year), while Nomar Mazara remains playable in any format on sites that have been slow to up his price.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland Baltimore with the 2nd highest team total on the slate
The Orioles have the second highest team total on the late slate (behind their opponent), making them a team you’ll want some exposure to this evening. Colby Lewis will toe the rubber for the Rangers in Arlington, and he’s a guy we can target with hitters from both sides of the plate. Chris Davis is the strongest target on the Baltimore side for a variety of reasons. First, his biggest weakness is the strikeout, and Lewis doesn’t generate many of those (5.06 K/9 vs. LHs last season). Davis also has a nice track record against Lewis (in limited ABs), homering twice in just eight at-bats. Lewis also allows plenty of hard contact (32.4 hard%, 14.2 soft% vs. LHs last season), something Davis provides quite often (44.7 hard%, 6.8 soft% vs. RHs). Manny Machado is in arguably an equally great spot, as platoon splits look better against RH pitchers. He finished 2015 with a .384 wOBA, .232 ISO and is worth every penny in a mouthwatering spot like this. The entire lineup is in play here but the top six are playable in any format.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Colby Lewis Houston bats make for interesting GPP targets against Verlander
Justin Verlander hasn’t gotten off to a very strong start this season, and while he’s one of the better arms going tonight, the Astros still have one of the higher team totals of the evening. The left-handed bats are in a better spot, making Colby Rasmus (3 HRs off RHs already this year, .243 ISO vs. RHs last season) and Preston Tucker (.347 wOBA, .238 ISO vs. RHs) viable GPP targets. Tucker’s price remains low at most outlets across the industry, including a very appealing $2,300 price tag on FanDuel. He’ll be pulled if the Tigers go to a lefty, but that factor already seems to be priced in to his salary. George Springer isn’t usually a strong play when he’s facing RHs with solid strikeout numbers, but Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are playable in large-field tournaments.
Other tagged players: Preston Tucker Max Scherzer is the clear top option at SP against a very weak Phillies offense
Stay away from the Phillies bats; that may be the most obvious statement you read all day. Philadelphia has a team total under 3 which is a rarity even for an offense as poor as theirs, and that’s something we’ll want to exploit in the form of Max Scherzer. He’s expensive, but there isn’t another arm on tonight’s slate with a ceiling nearly as high as his. Scherzer’s road numbers were very strong last season (.247 wOBA allowed, 11.45 K/9 rate, 0.88 WHIP), so while he’s doing business in a hitter friendly environment, the weak Philly offense isn’t likely to be able to take advantage of that. He absolutely owned this team last season, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 30 Ks in 30 IP. Expect another dominant performance tonight.
Marlins are a great team target against the putrid Bud Norris
It’s not very often that the Marlins are one of the top team stacks on the board, but Bud Norris lining up on the other side will make almost any offense worth targeting. Norris allowed at least a .379 wOBA to both right and left-handers last year, including 15 HRs in just 83 innings. Norris also owned a FIP over 5.00 against hitters from both sides of the plate, but his strikeout numbers were surprisingly strong when facing lefties (K/9 just over 9.0 compared to a 6.03 rate against RHs). Given the Marlins team total of over 4.5, we’ll want ample exposure to this offense. Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton are both elite targets in any format – there isn’t much that needs to be said for either of them in a match-up this strong. Christian Yelich (.354 wOBA, .134 ISO, 34.8 hard%) is another very strong target against Norris, and he also offers some stolen base upside, especially if A.J. Pierzynski ends up behind the plate. Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour are suitable options at fairly low price tags as well.
Other tagged players: Dee Strange-Gordon, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna Tampa right-handed bats in a great spot vs. John Danks
Danks allowed a .353 wOBA to RH bats last season and wasn’t very good at keeping the ball in the yard (16 HRs allowed to RHs). While the Rays don’t possess a ton of power from the right side, the bats at the top of the order are fairly cheap and would definitely make it easier to roster a guy like Max Scherzer. Danks doesn’t miss a ton of bats (6.48 K/9 against RHs, 5.72 against LHs) and does have some trouble with walks (3.20 BB/9 against RHs), which makes a guy like Steve Pearce (over 20% K-rate last season) a much stronger target. Pearce is slotting into the two-spot tonight in front of Evan Longoria, and his chances of being pulled if the White Sox go to a righty is also lower tonight with Kevin Kiermaier dealing with a minor injury. Evan Longoria (.398 wOBA, .226 ISO, 34.6% hard contact rate last season), Desmond Jennings (.365 wOBA, .222 ISO in 2014) and Steve Souza (.324 wOBA, .182 ISO last season) are also very strong dollar per point targets this evening. Don’t sleep on the left-handed bats in GPPs – Danks allowed 8 HRs to LHs last year in just 45.2 IP, and also owned just a 5.72 K/9 rate. Both Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier are out of the lineup tonight, but it doesn’t appear that either will be on the DL given that they are listed on the lineup card.
Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Steven Souza, Desmond Jennings Cristhian Adames bats lead off for Rockies, Ben Paulsen, D.J. LeMahieu, Tony Wolters out
Granted, there really isn’t much to like about the Rockies with Jake Arrieta on the mound for the Cubs. The Rockies have the lowest run total of the day at 2.49 and get the tough combination of Arrieta at Wrigley. Charlie Blackmon was just placed on the 15-day DL, and now they will be without Ben Paulsen, D.J. LeMahieu, and Tony Wolters for this one. While there is no doubt that the Cubs are likely going to blow them out, the only somewhat appealing bat for the Rockies is Cristhian Adames in the leadoff spot for Colorado. At minimum price, Adames offers a punt option at a position that is sometimes hard to fill, and if he can at least put a couple of balls in play and maybe draw a walk he could pay off well and allow you to spend up at some other positions. As the leadoff hitter for the Rockies who have four or five other powerful bats behind him, hopefully they could maybe bring him around for a run despite the tough match up. It would not be wise to deploy more than one or two Rockies vs. an ace pitcher like Arrieta in Wrigley, but at minimum price it is tough to ignore Adames. Please note that the 1:05 slate has already begun and the Cubs-Rockies game gets underway at 2:20, so this could be a good opportunity for a late swap on a site like DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Ben Paulsen, DJ LeMahieu, Tony Wolters
Coco Crisp and Chris Coghlan out, Josh Reddick in a good spot vs. Chris Young
Chris Young has a wOBA of .320 vs. lefties coming into this match up with the A’s which means we can take advantage of some of the lefties in the A’s lineup. Josh Reddick stands out the most as he has some pretty drastic platoon splits having a .432 wOBA vs. righties this season and a .364 ISO. This is a small sample size, but last season Reddick had a .359 wOBA vs. righties which is still a pretty good mark. There are some other lefties looking further into the A’s lineup in Stephen Vogt and Yonder Alonso, but neither have really proven to be very consistent yet as Vogt only had a couple decent games and Alonso is a horrid 3-32 to begin the season. Coco Crisp and Chris Coghlan are both out and will be replaced by Billy Burns who will hit leadoff, and Josh Phegley who will hit ninth. Marcus Semien jumps up to second in the order, and although he has three HRs in his last three games, he struggles against right handed pitchers with only a .288 wOBA. Reddick is the top option in this A’s lineup, and they should be able to take advantage of a hittable Young.
Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Marcus Semien, Yonder Alonso, Coco Crisp, Chris Coghlan Kyle Seager out for the Mariners, Nelson Cruz is an elite option, Luis Sardinas is a cheap punt option
Kyle Seager is out of the Mariners lineup vs. the Yankees and will be replaced at 1B by Dae-Ho Lee. If you are looking for a punt 2B/SS play look at Luis Sardinas at only $2,200 on DraftKings. Sardinas has appeared in four games for the Mariners so far and has a .594 wOBA, 316 wRC+, and .600 ISO vs. southpaws. Although it is an extremely small sample size, Sardinas has some opportunity to take advantage of the lefty CC Sabathia at the plate. Nelson Cruz is always an option, but he gets a match up with a lefty at Yankee Stadium vs. a pitcher that is prone to letting up a bunch of HRs which makes him even that much more enticing. Sabathia has an impressively poor HR/9 rate of 1.60, and no one would be surprised if Cruz took Sabathia deep once or twice in this hitter-friendly park. Cruz’s platoon splits are pretty drastic over the course of his career, and he owns an elite 0.439 wOBA and a 0.303 ISO vs. lefties this season. He becomes one of the top options on a slate when he is facing a lefty, but being in Yankee Stadium and considering Sabathia’s ability to let up a lot of deep balls, Cruz is one of the top couple of hitter options today.
Other tagged players: Luis Sardinas, Nelson Cruz Billy Hamilton, Tucker Barnhart out for the Reds
Billy Hamilton and Tucker Barnhart are out for their match up with the Cardinals and will be replaced by Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler batting seventh and eighth in the batting order respectively. There isn’t really much to like about the Reds today as they aren’t very good at the plate to start with, and they will be facing Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright. If you want a very contrarian option from the Reds, take a look at Zack Cozart batting leadoff for Cincinnati at only $2.7K who boasts a .468 wOBA vs. righties this season to go along with a 186 wRC+. He is by no means a safe option, but many will likely be scared away because of the pitching match up.
Other tagged players: Tucker Barnhart, Zack Cozart