DFS Alerts
Ben Revere placed on the 15-day DL
Matt den Dekker has been recalled in a corresponding move. Michael Taylor should continue to see the lion’s share of the work in center field and is also a candidate to hold onto the leadoff spot until Revere returns. Taylor is worth a look as a near-minimum price play against a very beatable Bud Norris, who allowed a .379 wOBA to RH bats last season.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman
Michael Pineda had 18.6 HR/FB at home, but a 3.34 FIP last year
Michael Pineda struggled with the HR ball and BABIP (.332) last year. The HRs could be a Yankee Stadium problem, but the BABIP should come down. Even with that rate, he had a 3.34 FIP last season, well below his four plus ERA (FIP does not normalize HRs). With the threat of rain in Washington, Pineda is a top pitching option tonight. You’ll have to accept some risk anywhere you look. Unfortunately, he’s priced more in line with his advanced stats than his actual ERA because strikeouts are as valuable as runs are costly in daily fantasy. Pineda didn’t have much of a split last year and allowed about an equal amount of HRs (9 and 12) to both LH and RH batters last year. The Astros were 3rd best with a 104 wRC+ vs RHP. Carlos Correa led the way with a 128 wRC+/.209 ISO vs RHP. The next two are batting lower in the order tonight, but have a better chance to take advantage of the short right field porch: Valbuena (121 wRC+/.234 ISO) and Tucker (120 wRC+/.238 ISO). Colby Rasmus bats higher with a 107 wRC+/.234 ISO. While you’ll probably have a lot of Pineda exposure tonight, you can also take shots with some Houston bats in lineups without him.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Luis Valbuena, Preston Tucker
Sano in a decent spot, but not much else to like for Minnesota
Yovani Gallardo’s 3.42 ERA was well below his 4.59 SIERA and 4.31 xFIP last season. His strikeout rate barely cracked 15%. He offers very little for us today, but does generate a lot of ground balls, which doesn’t make him a prime candidate to target either. He was about average vs RHBs, but Miguel Sano (154 wRC+ vs RHP) might be interesting with a strong wind blowing out to left-center. Lefties had a little more success (.334 wOBA, 9 HRs). Joe Mauer has lost all his power and had a 93 wRC+ vs RHP last year. In fact, no other Twin was above 102, which was Brian Dozier’s mark.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Yovani Gallardo Bud Norris had a 36.9 Hard% and 13.1 HR/FB last year
Bud Norris allowed a 36.9 Hard% last year with a 22.1 Hard-Soft% and 13.1 HR/FB. This includes a wOBA above .375 to batters from both sides of the plate. He’s probably not that bad and his situation has improved going from Baltimore to Atlanta, but he’s still the primary target tonight. You’ll want Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy in a lot of lineups tonight. Both have already homered this season. Don’t feel the need to avoid RHBs either. Michael Taylor is in a great lineup spot at leadoff for one of the higher projected run totals tonight (4.11 runs). The only downside is the potential for weather to play a part, but Kevin’s early report says the rain may hold off until late (YELLOW/ORANGE).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bud Norris Yankees 102 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015, McHugh's BABIP rose 50 points
The Yankees were above average against RHP last year (102 wRC+), but not what you would expect playing half their games at Yankee Stadium. They return all of the same players, but believe it or not, only three regulars had a wRC+ above 105 vs RHP: Teixiera (155 wRC+/.339 ISO), Carlos Beltran (127 wRC+/.196 ISO), and Alex Rodriguez (120 wRC+/.221). Jacoby Ellsbury (82 wRC+ vs RHP) was actually terrible. Brett Gardner and Brian McCann were about average and would be your other considerations here. Collin McHugh was nowhere near as successful in 2015 as his breakout the year before due to a 5 point decrease in K%, but his SwStr% didn’t drop off nearly that much and his BABIP rose 50 points, so there is room for a bounce back and we might not want to pick on him too much until we know more.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Collin McHugh Revamped Nicasio gets his first Pittsburgh start, Grichuk sits
Pirates pitching coach said that he made a small adjustment to keep the ball down and Juan Nicasio responded this spring. We all know March stats mean nearly nothing, but they’ve given us a reason to at least be interested in him as he’s always been a guy with “stuff” and Searage and the Pirates have had success with talented pitchers with control issues before. Lefties are a real problem for him though, with a career .362 wOBA allowed against them. You might have some mild interest in him at a low price, but LHBs Carpenter, Moss, and Wong should also be considered. Randall Grichuk sits in favor of LHB Jeremy Hazelbaker batting 8th.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Kolten Wong, Brandon Moss, Juan Nicasio Gibson has swing and miss stuff, wind blowing out to left-center in Baltimore
Kyle Gibson has swing and miss stuff as exhibited by his 9.8 SwStr% last year, but has never been able to turn that into an average strikeout rate. If you believe this year might be different, this could be a sneakily good spot for him against a Baltimore team that did have a 103 wRC+ vs RHP last year, but also a 21.7 K%. They’ve added to their power and strikeouts with Trumbo and Alvarez this year. This is both good and bad news today because Gibson keeps the ball on the ground at around a two to one rate, which should help him today, but on the downside, Kevin is calling for a strong wind (up to 25 mph gusts) out to left-center tonight, aiding the RH power in this game. Chris Davis (.350 ISO vs RHP last year) can hit it out to any part of the field. Manny Machado and Adam Jones both had a .200+ ISO vs RHP last year too, but Gibson generated a 56% GB vs RHBs last year. It’s a rare game where there might be interest on either side, with Gibson being more of a high risk GPP play.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado Red Sox bats have difficult assignment with Carrasco plus weather
This 6pm game does look to be in danger of a washout, but if you can find this 6pm game on a daily fantasy slate today, you probably still don’t want target Carlos Carrasco with the Boston bats. Interestingly, the Red Sox struck out just 17.8% of the time vs RHP last year, so even if you do have the option, this might be one game best avoided.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Warmer, but potentially rainy for Leake's Cardinals debut
The bad weather reports just keep on coming, although the morning report was a little bit more optimistic about this one getting in before mother nature takes over. Mike Leake’s 18.2 K% in 2014 peaked interest, but last year he went back to the same 15.3% he had each of the two years before. He generates a lot of ground balls, which may make his career 13.7 HR/FB look worse, but the long ball is a problem. Getting out of Cincinnati should help and he’s in a decent part tonight, but more of a neutral one against LH power, though Pittsburgh has none of that in their lineup. Their RHBs hit RHP well last year though, led by Andrew McCutchen (143 wRC+) and Starling Marte (122 wRC+). John Jaso has a 127 career wRC+ vs RHP if you’re looking for someone to walk and score. There’s really not much allure on either side here.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Mike Leake, Starling Marte, John Jaso Finnegan has some upside if CIN@PHI plays
Brandon Finnegan is perhaps most famous right now as being a big part of the Johnny Cueto trade after flashing great stuff out of the bullpen for Kansas City during the 2014 post-season. He’s been a bit less than that as a starter with a 9.8 BB% and eight HRs in 55 innings combined in the rotation and bullpen last year. He also had a 24.4 K% that might make him worth the risk at a low price against the Phillies (84 wRC+ vs RHP – worst in the majors last year). That all goes for naught though if the game does not play and Kevin doesn’t think it will, noting it RED in the morning forecast. Keep checking back to see if the weather report changes.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page BOS@CLE in doubt, Kipnis pummels RHP.
Several games, including this one look to be in danger tonight. The good news is with the 6pm start, it may not even be on your nightly slate. It’s probably not a good idea to target players when Kevin’s morning report goes RED and that’s especially true for a pitcher. Clay Buchholz showed some flashes of being an above average pitcher again last season and Cleveland was average (98 wRC+) vs RHP last year. If you must though, Jason Kipnis (150 wRC+ vs RHP last year) is probably the guy you want.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Clay Buchholz Stephen Strasburg in a great spot against an underwhelming Atlanta lineup
While there are some weather concerns here, Strasburg is the top overall option at SP this evening. He finished last season with a 28.6 K% and 2.67 FIP/2.50 xFIP on the road, and dominated this Atlanta team in two starts last season (2-0, 11IP, 0R, 13K). The Braves had the 4th worst wOBA against right-handers last season and this year’s lineup hasn’t changed too much, so we should expect a strong outing from Strasburg. Washington also comes in as the biggest favorite (by far) on tonight’s slate, giving Strasburg a great shot at the ever-important win.
PHI@CIN in danger of postponement
Kevin had this game as RED/ORANGE in his morning update and didn’t think it would be played. This usually means you don’t want to risk it, but if the game does play and you’re feeling adventurous, Cincinnati has the 2nd highest projected run total (4.28 runs) currently on our Vegas Odds page. Aaron Nola did have a bit of a HR problem (15.1 HR/FB) and is likely over-priced on DraftKings anyway. Joey Votto (170 wRC+ vs RHP last year) would be your main target, followed by Jay Bruce (97 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP last year).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Aaron Nola Wind blowing out to left for MIN@BAL
Kyle Gibson may be a right-handed ground ball pitcher, but Kevin reported potential wind gusts up to 25 mph out to left center this morning. This could give a bump to right-handed power hitters like Adam Jones in an already advantageous hitter’s park.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Kyle Gibson Arizona pitching and hitting good targets today against Rockies
The Diamondbacks-Rockies game is expected to be another high scoring affair but the edge clearly goes to the home team in this match up as Patrick Corbin looks to continue off an impressive 2015 season that saw him put up a 22% K rate along with a 3.44 SIERA. He’s a good pivot off of Jose Fernandez and Carlos Carrasco if you are tempted to do such a thing in GPP’s. The Rockies SP, Tyler Chatwood, has a very high walk rate of nearly 12% against lefties putting David Peralta and Jake Lamb very much in play and we can never ignore one of the best hitters in the game, Paul Goldschmidt, when he has a plus match up – which he does. If you are going to target a Rockies bat, Trevor Story is off to an insane start but he’ll likely be way over owned because of recency bias making him a good fade candidate. Ryan Raburn is another Rockies bat to consider as he is elite against LHP with a .423 wOBA and .265 ISO in 176 plate appearances last season.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders on Twitter Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Trevor Story, Ryan Raburn