DFS Alerts

Jose Fernandez clear-cut top option at SP for early slate

Marlins SP Jose Fernandez is the top arm on the morning slate and honestly it’s not even close. He had nearly a 30% K rate in 2015 with a 2.77 SIERA. The Tigers have a strong offense but their best hitters all hit from the right side of the plate, which isn’t good when going against Fernandez. As such, it’s probably best to avoid Tigers bats today as their expectation to perform just isn’t there. On the other side, Anibal Sanchez is inconsistent and coming off a near five ERA. You could do worse than a mini-Marlins stack of Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton.

Seattle-Texas game has highest over/under of early slate

With an over/under of 9.5, the Mariners-Rangers game has the highest total of the early slate and should be a focus of your lineups in terms of bats. Rangers starter Colby Lewis is a fly ball pitcher who had a 4.43 SIERA in 2015 including a 4.84 xFIP against left-handed bats. This makes Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager top plays while Leonys Martin (leading off), Adam Lind (fifth), and Seth Smith (sixth) are also in play if you are looking for a Mariners stack. The Mariners starter Wade Miley is more of a ground ball pitcher but don’t be afraid to target right-handed bats like Adrian Beltre or Ian Desmond at the top of the Rangers order.

Both right and left-handed batters can be used against him, but start with the lefties, as he posted just a 13.4% strikeout rate last season leading to a 4.84 xFIP against LHB. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are elite plays, along with Seth Smith, assuming he is in the lineup. Seattle sends lefty Wade Miley to the mound, another pitcher with a below average strikeout rate. He does have a solid ground ball lean, but the Texas right-handed bats should be able to get to him today. Delino DeShields and Adrian Beltre would be my cash game targets. If you are looking to stack this game in tournaments, don’t be afraid to use a left-handed batter like Prince Fielder or Shin-Soo Choo, because this could easily become a bullpen game.

Avoid the pitchers in the Giants-Brewers game today

At hitter-friendly Miller Park, there are better options (even on a small slate) than rostering the inconsistent arms of Jeff Samarzija, who had a terrible 2015 season, and the promising Taylor Jungmann. The Giants batters are in play, although there is the noticeable absence of Denard Span from their lineup today. Giants batters are in play, either as a tournament stack, or pieces to fill in a cash game lineup. Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Matt Duffy, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford all had wOBA’s that topped .330 against RHP last season and even light-hitting Angel Pagan is in play as he takes Spans spot at the top of the order today at the cheapest price (on FanDuel) of those seven players. From the Brewers side of things, Domingo Santana has some pop and will lead off at a low price point – something we always like to target in DFS. Scooter Gennett hits RHP much better at home (.329 wOBA) and bats at the top of the order as well (2nd) while Ryan Braun batting third and Jonathan Lucroy hitting clean up are your other two options to look at from the Brewers squad. If you really want to take a flyer, rookie Ramon Flores is dirt cheap and batting sixth – he hit .308/.401/.454 in AAA last season.

Toronto bats the ones to look at in Toronto-Tampa game

Two lefties take the mount today when Toronto visits Tampa in a game that has an O/U of 8 with Toronto a favorite and projected to score 4.32 runs to Tampa’s 3.68. The Rays are loading up with right-handed bats today as Kevin Kiermaier is the only left-handed hitter in the lineup. Happ was excellent at the end of last season as he put together a 1.85 ERA and 2.19 FIP over his last 11 starts. While he did allow a .307 wOBA to righties last season, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria are probably the only two Rays bats you should be considering. The rest of the top six of the batting order (Guyer, Pearce, Jennings, and Souza) all have some match up upside and come at very affordable salaries across the industry. For the Jays, it’s more of the same for their powerful offense, especially against left-handed pitching. All seven at the top of their order are in play with the Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki two through five combo being the best of the group. Donaldson, who had a .428 wOBA and .333 ISO against southpaws last season is the best of the bunch.

Rotogrinders.com Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, does not think that Phillies at Reds game will take place and is also concerned with the potential for Boston at Cleveland to finish. There are also some concerns about St. Louis at Pittsburgh and the Nationals-Braves game but he is a bit more optimistic there. Check out the Rotogrinders forums for a sneak peak at Roth’s weather forecast for today’s MLB games.

James Shields allowed 15 HRs to LHBs at Petco last season

James Shields had 26.9 K% at home last season, but also a 21.1 HR/FB with 15 of those bombs coming against LHBs, against which he also had 5.89 BB/9, good for a FIP over seven. The Dodgers load up with powerful LHBs and a couple of RHBs that hit RHP well. Justin Turner has a reverse platoon split with a wRC+ over 150 vs RHP the last two seasons, but perhaps Adrian Gonzalez (133 wRC+ vs RHP last year) and Corey Seager (186 wRC+ vs RHP last year in 66 PA) are the top plays here. Joc Pederson bats lower in the lineup, but would easily pay off his price with a HR, of which he’s more than capable.

Kazmir looks to start strong again in Dodger debut at Petco

Scott Kazmir has made a habit of starting strong and fading down the stretch since his revival three years ago. The difference last year was though his ERA was 3.10 in the end, his estimators were a run higher thanks to the 2nd lowest BABIP of his career (.273) and an average K rate (20.3%) that tanked in the 2nd half (16.8%). The ball seemed to fly out of Petco last year (for Padres pitchers anyway), but it’s traditionally played as a strong pitcher’s park. The Padres had just an 88 wRC+ (23.3 K%) vs LHP last year despite leaning heavy right-handed and now they’ve lost their top RHB in free agency. Perhaps they’re looking to change their luck with two LHBs in the top two slots tonight (Jay, Spangenberg), but Kazmir looks to be one of the better pitching plays tonight in a favorable matchup.

Jose Abreu had major reverse split last year

Chris Bassitt showed a live arm with a mile per hour increase in velocity when given a starting shot last season, but faded terribly over the last month. With that uncertainty and a park that heavily favors pitching and a mediocre opposing lineup, there’s not a lot to like from either side in this one as Todd Fraizer is just average vs RHP. Jose Abreu, though, exhibited a major reverse platoon split last season, blasting 27 of his 30 HRs against righties, good for a 144 wRC+. Adam Eaton is the other bat worth looking at here atop the order as he was good for a 133 wRC+ vs RHP last year.

Billy Butler has 33 K%, but 100 mph exit velocity vs Quintana

A cool stat from Baseball Savant is exit velocity in PvB mode. Billy Butler has struck out in 12 of 36 plate appearances against Jose Quintana, but has a 100 mph exit velocity, though only five singles and no extra-base hits when he does make contact. Quintana will be facing the same lineup Sale did last night with Reddick batting 3rd again, but otherwise entirely right-handed in what still looks to be a decent spot. He’s shown an ability to keep the ball in the park (8.5 HR/FB career) and gets a big park upgrade tonight. He may be more of a higher floor cash game pitcher than a GPP play with limited upside. The A’s do have some bats in the middle of the order that handle left-handed pitching better than average, though no real mashers worth pointing out in a tough park against an above average pitcher.

Kyle Schwarber not in the Cubs lineup Tuesday

Schwarber will sit in favor of Matt Szczur tonight against left-handed Andrew Heaney. Even with the DH in play, Joe Maddon will give Schwarber an early season rest against one of the better young lefties in the league. Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist and Jorge Soler are all interesting targets on the Chicago side, with Bryant and Zobrist looking like the top two options here. Heaney finished 2015 with a 5.10 xFIP against RH bats, including a 2.92 BB/9 rate to go along with an ugly 5.96 K/9. Strikeouts are one of Bryant’s biggest issues, so his upside rises a bit in this spot. Zobrist is a nice target at a relatively thin 2B spot, as he’ll remain in the heart of the Chicago order this evening.

Jon Lester is tonight's top pitcher

Jon Lester likely combines tonight’s highest floor with one of the higher ceilings with the highest price tag as well. He faces an unimposing Angels lineup (88 wRC+ vs LHP last year) in a great park. After a rough start in Chicago last year, he finished with an ERA and estimators right around three. While Mike Trout can do significant damage to any man who throws a baseball within striking distance while he’s holding a bat, Lester is really one guy we don’t expect him to have offensive success against tonight.

Shelby Miller had a one run gap between his ERA and xFIP last year.

Last year, Shelby Miller pitched in a big park with a good defense behind him and ran a 6.4 HR/FB into a 3.02 ERA, but his xFIP sat much higher than that at 4.07, meaning that’s what his ERA would have looked like with an average HR rate. Coincidentally, that’s exactly what he had in St Louis (another pitching friendly park) during his first two years in the majors. How will a move to a very hitter friendly park treat him then? Hopefully, better than Greinke last night. He certainly has the stuff to be at least an average pitcher and at an affordable price might be in consideration against a bad road offense tonight. The park will enhance that offense though, putting the top five (Blackmon, Story, Gonzalez, Arenado, and Parra) in GPP consideration and I would even use Cargo (150 wRC+ vs RHP last year) and Arenado (131 wRC+ vs RHP) in cash games.

Winds in Texas may warrant a slight downgrade to lefty power bats

We’re dealing with winds out of the south at 15-20mph, gusts closer to 25, which is blowing in from right field. A couple of years ago a southerly wind actually swirled around the stadium and helped carry balls out, but that doesn’t appear to be the case these days after park renovations which removed the “reverse jet stream” effect. Play it as a slight bump down to lefty power hitters.

Kevin Roth's weather post has been updated

It’s still nearly freezing in Pittsburgh and windy in Texas. The conditions still favor the pitchers somewhat with left handed power affected the most in the Seattle/Texas game. This gives Hisashi Iwakuma a slight bump as it may help to stabilize his largest flaw in the home run ball.

Johnny Cueto makes Giants debut in Milwaukee

Johnny Cueto fell off in a big way after being traded to Kansas City last year, finishing with just a 20.3 K% in 2015, but cashed in on a post-season rebound. While we really want to see what he can do in San Francisco, Milwaukee offers a major downgrade in park, but the rebuilding Brewers should offer little resistance. They line up almost entirely right-handed with some heavy swing and miss imported in Domingo Santana and Chris Carter both with a career K-rate above 33%. While not as reliable with a normalized BABIP and sub-80 LOB%, the stuff is still there for on of the top performances tonight in a great spot.