DFS Alerts
David Peralta among the top overall OF options on tonight's slate; Goldy, Castillo in nice bounce-back spots
A few of the D’Backs burned DFS owners last night, but it’s a great opportunity to go back to the well in order to get them at decreased ownership percentages in GPPs. David Peralta was one of the few bright spots for Arizona last night, and he’s in a much more favorable spot tonight against a right-hander. He owned a .402 wOBA, .224 ISO and 37.3% hard-contact rate when hitting at home against RHP last year. While Paul Goldschmidt and Welington Castillo underwhelmed last night, both of them are very nice GPP targets against one of the weaker arms on tonight’s slate. Both players possess solid power potential and Goldschmidt’s ability to contribute in all stat categories keeps his ceiling sky high. The D’Backs also have the highest projected team total on tonight’s slate. Outside of the three aforementioned names, Jake Lamb is an intriguing target at $2.2 on FanDuel while Socrates Brito is playable at near-minimum price hitting out of the two-hole.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Jake Lamb, Socrates Brito
Martin Perez generates tons of grounders/weak contact, but few strikeouts
Martin Perez can be a valuable real life pitcher (59.9 GB%, 3.4 Hard-Soft% last season), but a 14.2 K% leaves him with very little daily fantasy appeal. That said, he kept lefties and righties on the ground last year, allowing just three total HRs. This, along with a strong wind blowing in might temper some of the appeal of the Seattle bats, though Nelson Cruz (202 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) and Franklin Gutierrrez (168 wRC+ vs LHP) punish southpaws and remain viable options with the worst of the wind likely to be blowing in from right.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Martin Perez
Strong wind blowing in from right could help Iwakuma
Hisashi Iwakuma can be difficult to roster in hitter friendly parks due to 14.1 HR/FB over the last two seasons (though it’s actually slightly lower on the road). With a 21.5 K% just slightly above average last season, he has to fall back on his 3.4 BB% since 2014 if things start to go south. This might even make you consider rostering a few Rangers tonight as Choo (148 wRC+), Fielder (146 wRC+), and Moreland (132 wRC+) all pounded RHP in well over 300 PAs each last year. However, Kevin was calling for wind gusts up to 25 mph in from RF in his early forecast, which could hinder the LH power and turn things more in Iwakuma’s favor. Be sure to check in with his updated forecast later.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Hisashi Iwakuma San Francisco projected for one of tonight's top run totals against Jimmy Nelson
The Giants are projected for the 3rd best run total (4.32) tonight on our Vegas Odds page. It’s not that Jimmy Nelson (4.11 ERA/4.09 SIERA, 19.7 K%) is a bad pitcher, but he calls a tough park home and faces an offense that was tied for the 2nd highest wRC+ on the road last season (103). The Giants are a potent bunch away from home and a 109 mark against RHP. RHB Hunter Pence (143 wRC+ vs RHP last year) led the team with Joe Panik (142 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) not far behind. Posey, Belt, Duffy, and Crawford were also all above 120 vs RHP in 2015. Newcomer Denard Span bats leadoff and while he missed most of last season, he’s started 2016 hot and has a 109 wRC+ career vs RHP.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Denard Span, Jimmy Nelson Pillar remains leadoff vs Odorizzi
Kevin Pillar remains in the leadoff spot against the RHP despite not doing much in the first two games and having just a 96 wRC+ against them. The Blue Jays are not as potent vs RHP as they are lefties, but still led the majors with a 115 wRC+ there. This takes Odorizzi (3.35 ERA/3.90 SIERA, 21.4 K% last year) off the board for us. The big three (Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion) all had a wRC+ between 149-155 vs RHP last year, enhancing Pillar’s spot in the lineup as well despite the limited production.
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Pillar, Jake Odorizzi Rays stay consistent vs wild arm of Sanchez
The Tampa Bay Rays run out the same lineup aside from the catcher spot for the 3rd straight game to start the season. They face the live, but wild arm of Aaron Sanchez (10.6 BB%, 13.5 HR/FB) at home. While the park favors pitching, the Rays have one of the highest projected totals (4.25) according to our Vegas Odds page. Corey Dickerson thumps RHPs for a 139 wRC+ (that’s park adjusted offense) throughout his career and is the prime play in this lineup, though with Sanchez’s wildness and the high projected run total, you probably won’t go wrong with any of the other top four (Forsythe, Morrison, Longoria) or even Brad Miller (112 wRC+ vs RHP career) and Kevin Kiermaier (124 wRC+ vs RHP) for the cost, despite being further down the order.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Aaron Sanchez, Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison Cardinals stack righties vs Niese
The Cardinals were terrible against lefties last year (83 wRC+, 23.6 K%), but should improve this season. They stack six right-handed bats against Jon Niese on Tuesday, but have to deal with terrible hitting conditions in a park that kills right-handed power with temperatures in the 30’s. Niese won’t strike out many, but has generated a 1.87 GB/FB over the last two seasons. Not a lot stands out here on either end, but Piscotty has a 137 wRC+ vs LHP in limited career opportunities against them, while Holliday (141 wRC+ career vs LHP) has great numbers as well, but is on the downside of his career. The conditions favor pitching, but the upside is probably limited.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Jon Niese Near freezing temps in Pittsburgh make for tough hitting conditions
Michael Wacha had a shiny 3.37 ERA last season, but with estimators closer to four due to a .272 BABIP and just an average 20.1 K%. It may be something he can sustain pitching in a great park with a decent defense, but the lack of above average strikeout stuff for the 2nd year in a row might hinder his daily fantasy value. Kevin’s forecast calls for it to be in the 30’s in Pittsburgh tonight though, which takes a lot of the Pirates off the board in a pitcher’s park under some tough conditions. Wacha is reasonably priced and startable tonight, but may not have the upside you might be expecting.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Chen makes Miami debut against strong right-handed lineup.
Last year, the Tigers had a 120 wRC+ vs LHPs, trailing only the Blue Jays (124). They then went out and added Justin Upton (career 135 wRC+/.233 ISO vs LHP). Despite the dimension changes in Miami, it’s still going to be a much more favorable park (and division) for Wei-Yin Chen (1.06 GB/FB last two years, 11.2 HR/FB career). Detroit looses the DH, but still manages to stack an imposing right-handed lineup against him here. Every batter in it had at least 100 PAs vs LHP with at least a 145 wRC+ last year, except for Kinsler (118 wRC+ vs LHP), who is still in an enviable leadoff spot. Miguel Cabrera leads the charge, of course, (180 wRC+ vs LHP last year, 160 career). Chen is not a bad pitcher, but a Detroit stack as one of your GPP lineups doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
Other tagged players: Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Cabrera James Shields allowed 23 HRs in 95.2 IP against left-handers in 2015
Despite the fact that he plays about half his games in the pitcher-friendly confines of San Diego, Shields allowed 23 HRs in under 100 IP against left-handed bats in 2015. 15 of those came when he was pitching in Petco, which he’ll be doing tonight against a bevy of tough left-handed bats (Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager). Shields also owned a dreadful 5.85 BB/9 rate at home against lefties, which helps explain his 7.29 FIP in that split over the course of last season. Both Gonzalez and Seager hit right-handers very well and they should be closely considered as GPP targets tonight despite the Dodgers not having one of the higher team totals of the day.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez Verlander opens in new look Marlins park
Justin Verlander looked revitalized in the 2nd half last season (2.27 ERA over final 99 innings). His estimators were a bit higher, but a 23.6 K% after the breaks portends well, even if it isn’t exactly vintage Verlander. He failed to gain back much of his youthful velocity, but, if healthy, 93-94 mph should be enough. Not only is he opening in a National League park today, but the fences have been shortened in distance and height, though it should still play favorably towards the pitcher for HRs. The Marlins don’t really make too many changes in the lineup, but their power lefty bat (Justin Bour – 128 wRC+/.249 ISO vs RHP last year) drops to 6th in the lineup with worm burner Christian Yelich (125 wRC+/.134 ISO/4.16 GB/FB last year) moves into the 3rd slot. With most pitchers on day two having some type of flaw, Verlander carries some risk, but should be one of the better GPP options tonight.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Justin Bour Mets hitters are the bats to target in early slate
With aces abound in the early slate, Royals SP Chris Young is easily the worst of the six and as such we should be keying in on New York Mets bats for our DFS lineups today. Young allowed a .320 wOBA to LH bats last season so Lucas Duda (.236 ISO vs RHP in 2015), Curtis Granderson (.384 wOBA vs RHP in 2015), and Michael Conforto (.256 ISO vs RHP in 2015) are three left-handed bats to look at and don’t be afraid to use the RH bat of Yoenis Cespedes or switch-hitter Neil Walker if you want additional exposure to the Mets lineup. While Noah Syndergaard is a tough match up for the Royals, we can still look at their left-handed hitters like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Alex Gordon as potential GPP targets.
As reported by: Adam Rubin on Twitter Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto
Target the pitching in the Boston-Cleveland game
The Boston-Cleveland game was postponed yesterday and the two teams will square off in one of the three games in the afternoon slate. It’s a game that has the lowest posted total of the day at six – and for good reason as two of the top pitchers in the game, David Price and Corey Kluber, are taking the mound. While we can’t avoid all bats in this game, these two are definitely top options with high upside. David Ortiz is the one bat to focus on from the Red Sox as he mashes RHP to the tune of a .413 woBA last season. Mookie Betts is a bit pricey but can make for a good GPP play at the top of the Red Sox order. On the Cleveland side of things, Francisco Lindor (.388 wOBA vs LHP, batting third) and former Red Sox Mike Napoli (.403 wOBA vs LHP, batting fourth) are the two bats to target against Price.
As reported by: Boston Red Sox official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli Astros-Yankees game a tough one to figure out other than avoiding Yankees bats
The Astros and Yankees will make up their postponed game from yesterday in a match up that sees Dallas Keuchel squaring off against Masahiro Tanaka. Despite the Yankees opening at home, they are underdogs against Keuchel who should dominate a Yankees line up that struggled against LHP last season. Tanaka himself isn’t the easiest match up but with just three games on the early slate we do have to look at both teams for potential plays. For the Yankees, Aaron Hicks batting second had a .375 wOBA last season against LHP and brings steal potential as well as he swiped 13 bags last season in limited playing time with the Twins. Alex Rodriguez always hits lefties well (.389 wOBA and .269 ISO last season) and is really the only other Yankee we’re targeting today. On the Astros side, Colby Rasmus had 18 HR’s against RHP last season in 313 at bats and brings the type of upside we like to target in GPP’s, especially in New York a park that is traditionally friendly to left-handed bats. The big three of Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Jose Altuve are almost always in play and today is no exception, especially against Tanaka who is prone to giving up the long ball (17 HR allowed at Yankee Stadium last year in 87 1/3 IP).
As reported by: Houston Astros official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Colby Rasmus, Aaron Hicks, Alex Rodriguez Rich Hill faces the Chicago White Sox
Rich Hill gets the late call for Sonny Gray tonight. The journeyman came out of nowhere last season to strike out 36 of 106 batters faced in four starts down the stretch and now he finds himself pitching on Opening Day. Although it’s too small a sample to trust for cash games, he makes an interesting GPP target as some players might not even know he’s starting. Oakland is a great park for a pitcher with a career 0.82 GB/FB to call home too, especially with cool April air. The White Sox have made some improvements offensively. Todd Frazier is the new middle of the lineup bat (126 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP since 2014). Jose Abreu actually dropped to a 78 wRC+ vs lefties last year with a .120 ISO and just 3 HRs, but his 2014 was so strong that he still holds a 140 wRC+ against them in both seasons combined. Avisail Garcia (121 wRC+, .158 ISO since 2014) is the only other player with a wRC+ above 114 against southpaws.
Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia