DFS Alerts

The Mid-Range Has Few Viable Options Tonight

While there are legitimate caution flags for all three of tonight’s top pitchers, it’s not like you can skip all of them and grab one or two from the middle of the board tonight either because you’re not going to find another high upside arm on the board. Jose Suarez is actually experiencing a small velocity bump moving into the rotation. It hasn’t helped his strikeout rate over six starts (18.3%), but he does have an 11.8 SwStr% (at least 11% in five of six starts), while he’s kept more than half his contact on the ground 52.2% with just an 86.5 mph EV (6.6% Barrels/BBE), but he’s a lefty, facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. He costs just $6.8K on DraftKings though.

Touki Toussaint can be exciting because he misses bats (24.1 K% through five major league starts this year, 35.2% over 16.2 AAA innings) and is currently running the lowest walk rate he’s ever had at any professional level (7.8%). He does have some contact profile issues though. He’s allowed five home runs with a 92.4 mph EV, though just six barrels (8.0%). A 4.28 ERA somewhat middles contact neutral (4.08 SIERA, 4.19 xFIP) and including (4.39 xERA, 4.94 FIP) estimators. The Marlins have a 92 wRC+ vs RHP. Five of eight projected for Miami exceed a 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. This is probably where most people who don’t want to pay up will go. Toussaint costs less than $8.5K on either site.

While the 1.25 ERA Cal Quantrill has produced over his last six starts is unsustainable, there’s been real improvement in his profile with a 23.2 K%, 53.8 GB% and 82 mph EV. He’s allowed just one home runs, but not even a single barrel over this span (3.04 FIP, 4.02 xFIP). The projected Minnesota lineup includes four above a 29 K% vs RHP and Quantrill costs less than $8K on DraftKings.

That’s really it. Wade Miley is facing the Cubs with four above a 25 K% vs LHP in the projected lineup, though in small samples and in a dangerous park. Over his last four starts (23.1 IP), Miley has both walked and struck out 13 with just a 40.3 GB%. That may not be something you want to pay more than $8K for tonight. Carlos Hernandez has a 3.33 ERA through five starts, but with just an 11.6 K-BB%, 89.8 mph EV and .230 BABIP. Non-FIP estimators are about a run higher over this span and he faces the Astros. Your best bet is to pay up tonight because everything is high risk, but at least the top pitchers offer a substantial reward.

Concern For All Three of Tonight's Top Pitchers

Your $10K pitchers on Monday night are Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman with Frankie Montas within $100 of $9.5K on either site. No other pitcher on the slate reaches $9K on either site. Cole makes his return from the COVID IL, where he spent a bit over two weeks without a rehab start. The Yankee broadcast on Sunday noted that he would not be limited, but also suggested they’d be careful to not over-work him…whatever that means. Cole had struck out at least eight in four straight, including against Boston twice and Houston, immediately before hitting the IL, though the Rays did tag him for eight runs (seven earned) in his last start on July 29th. The Angels have a 99 wRC+ and more importantly, seven of nine in the projected lineup tonight exceed a 24 K% vs RHP. Yankee Stadium is generally a negative run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors, though Weather Edge currently gives enough of a bump to make it a positive one. However, if Cole is truly unlimited tonight, he’s the clear top pitcher on the board in a high upside matchup and potentially one of the top values. His recent absence may even keep his ownership more reasonable.

Gausman has been fairly average with a 12.8 BB%, 4.20 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 4.14 xFIP over his last eight starts. He’s gone beyond five innings in just one of his last five starts. However, he still owns a 21.9 K-BB% with a 3.54 SIERA his highest estimator on the season and pitches in a negative run environment, where he’ll face a struggling offense, traveling across country after a Sunday night drubbing from the Dodgers. The Mets have a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and five of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 22.5 K% vs RHP this season. If we go by Gausman’s season stats, he’s fine here and compares favorably to any other pitcher on a per daily fantasy dollar basis. However, recent performance, and it’s been a long enough stretch, may give some pause, but could also lower ownership.

Over his last six starts, Montas has a 35.4 K% (18.8 SwStr%), 6.3 BB%, 2.39 ERA and 2.40 xFIP. On the season, he has a 19.9 K-BB% and 3.98 ERA within one-third of a run of all of his estimators with only his xERA (4.04) above four. He gets a park downgrade in Chicago, with Weather Edge currently suggesting a somewhat neutral run environment may be slightly positive tonight. It’s a touch matchup. The White Sox have a 118 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB at home. However, five of nine in the projected lineup are above a 24 K% vs RHP this year. Montas may be the top value on the board, considering Gausman’s recent struggles and the slight possibility for the Yankees to be cautious with Cole, though all three are viable with these concerns (including Montas’s matchup), potentially spreading ownership evenly.

This Lefty is Really Struggling Against RHBs

Since finding a more permanent home in the rotation, Tyler Alexander has made five starts with just a 5.5 SwStr%, 25.4 GB% and 90.6 mph EV over that span that makes his 4.43 ERA and 7.9 HR/FB seem quite fortunate. Just three of 11 barrels (16.4%) have left the yard in these starts. On the season, including relief work where he’s been superior, he has a 4.90 xERA and 5.02 xFIP. Add in his struggles with RHBs (.360 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) and the potential for Cleveland to nearly stack the entire lineup from that side and the soon to be Guardians become very interesting with a 4.59 team total near the middle of the board. Players looking to differentiate from the many Rafael Devers/Xander Bogaerts combos tonight could pivot to Jose Ramirez (113 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP this season) and Amed Rosario (129 wRC+, .170 ISO), the latter affording lineups much more salary flexibility. Franmil Reyes (126 wRC+, .239 ISO) is the other big bat here with Oscar Mercado (107 wRC+) and Myles Straw (65 wRC+) both costing $2.6K or less and projected in the front five of this order.

A Top Team Total at Affordable Costs

We don’t generally think of the Pirates or Brewers offenses as having a lot of firepower and the park in Pittsburgh is not really one of the more hitter friendly environments in the league, but the pitching matchup dictates that this is a great spot for bats tonight, the one caveat being that Kevin currently has this game labeled as Orange tonight. Should he give an improved forecast later in the day though, we have Mitch Keller, against whom batters from either side of the plate exceed a .365 wOBA and xwOBA this year, against Brett Anderson, against whom batters from either side of the plate have at least a .360 xwOBA this year. On the Pittsburgh side, Bryan Reynolds (149 wRC+, .213 ISO vs LHP this year) is the bat you want and he costs less than $4K on either site. Colin Moran (97 wRC+, .211 ISO) has shown some pop against same-handed pitching too and costs $3K or less. The Pirates have just a 3.63 team total though and the Brewers have an imposing bullpen, so we may want to limit exposure there. The Brewers, however, have the second highest implied run line on the board (5.37) and only one batter in the projected lineup (Eduardo Escobar 107 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) costs more than $3.5K on FanDuel tonight. Weather permitting, this is a high value stack with Willy Adames (130 wRC+, .225 ISO) costing just $3.3K and pounding the ball for a 158 wRC+ over the last 30 days. We don’t have to worry about the Pittsburgh bullpen either, as they traded off piecesc at the deadline and have a 5.83 ERA, 4.89 FIP and 4.90 xFIP over the last 30 days.

Top Values Opposing the Top Projected Offense Tonight

The Boston Red Sox have a 6.79 implied run line that’s about a run and a half higher than any other team total on Friday night. That’s based on a number of things, including an extremely positive run environment with a small potential additional weather boost, along with the fact that Spenser Watkins has shown a reverse split through six starts (RHBs .346 wOBA, .370 xwOBA), while Statcast boost LHBs from a .294 wOBA to a .322 xwOBA too. There’s also the Baltimore bullpen with a 6.31 ERA and 4.96 xFIP over the last 30 days, both second worst in the majors over that stretch. It’s easty to tell you that Boston bats top the board tonight and Alex Verdugo (149 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this season) potentially one of the top values, projected to bat second tonight for just $3.7K on DK and nearly $1K less on FD, but the other side of this matchup is interesting too. Baltimore has just a 4.21 implied run line and while batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .315 wOBA against Nick Pivetta, Statcast widens the split gap (LHBs .324 xwOBA, RHBs .288), which makes this a spot to stack left-handed Orioles. Cedric Mullins (157 wRC+, .236 ISO) is one of the top bats on the board and reasonably priced, but stacking him with Anthony Santander (98 wRC+, .219 ISO) and D.J. Stewart (105 wRC+, .205 ISO), who each cost $3K or less on either site, allows players to do just about whatever they want with the remainder of their lineups.

Great Matchup Numbers Against a Pitcher Likely to Regress

Batter vs Pitcher matchup stats are of limited value, but they do have some when correlating well with additional information and that’s the situation we run into tonight in Arizona. Madison Bumgarner has allowed just 10 runs (seven earned) in his 32 innings (five starts) back from the IL, but he’s done it with just a 16.3 K% (7.8 SwStr%), reduced velocity and just 27.1% of his contact on the ground. Optimistically, he’s walked just four (3.3%) with 7.2% Barrels/BBE over this stretch, but he also has a .234 BABIP, 78.4 LOB% and 6.7 HR/FB. On the season, his 4.42 ERA is nearly a perfect match for his 4.41 SIERA and 4.30 xERA. While Bumgarner actually has a 47 point reverse split this year, Statcast brings batters from either side of the plate to within three points of a .315 xwOBA, which is about average and Arizona is a slightly positive run environment with the roof closed, according to Statcast Park Factors, which the team website says it will be on Friday night. The Arizona bullpen also has a 4.75 ERA and 4.41 xFIP over the last month, while oddsmakers list the Padres with the fifth highest team total tonight at 4.89 runs. So, before we even get to BvP, this is a good looking spot for San Diego bats. There are just three batters on the slate who exceed a .400 xwOBA against the pitcher they are facing tonight with a minimum of 15 PAs and two of them are in this projected San Diego lineup. One is Tommy Pham (107 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP this season), who hasn’t homered, but has a 91.3 mph EV and .418 xwOBA in 17 PAs against Bumgarner. That’s less impressive than Wil Myers, who has struggled against southpaws this year (89 wRC+, .099 ISO), but has much better numbers against them in his career, especially against this lefty (five home runs and two doubles in 65 PAs with a .413 xwOBA). Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .202 ISO) has homered three times with a double in 32 PAs against Bumgarner as well. Bumgarner is due for some regression with an ERA well ahead of his estimators since returning from the IL and below average numbers on the season. Everything seems to point to the Padres potentially making those expectations a reality tonight.

Potentially Limited Starter Backed by the Worst Bullpen in Baseball

There’s an interesting situation occurring in Washington tonight that may justify exposure to either side of the Josiah Gray/Braves matchup. On the one hand, Gray is cheap and has at least six strikeouts in three of his four starts. While RHBs have a .379 wOBA against him to this point, Statcast drops that 90 points to a .289 xwOBA. However, if not planning to roster Gray, there are a number of reasons to consider Atlanta bats, which don’t even have that much to do with the rookie pitcher. LHBs do have a .338 xwOBA against him, 41 points higher than their actual results against him so far, but the park in Washington is already a positive run environment and could get a slight offensive bump, according to Weather Edge at this time. However, an important thing to know is that Gray maxed out at 82 pitches, five innings pitched and 22 batters faced in his four outings, all against these same Braves last time out. This means, we’re likely to see a lot of the Washington bullpen tonight. Not only are the Nationals coming off a double-header in New York on Thursday, but they have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days, whether your chosen metric is ERA (6.88), xFIP (5.27) or FIP (4.88). In fact, no other bullpen in the majors is within a quarter of a run by any of these metrics over this time span. Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this year) is your top bat here and maybe even the top value in this lineup, as he’s reasonably priced below $5K on DraftKings and below $4K on FanDuel. Oddsmakers recognize the gravity of this bullpen situation, as Atlanta has the third highest implied run line on tonight’s board (5.1).

Middle of the Board Loaded with Young, Breakout Pitching Talent

Something that sticks out on today’s slate is the number of young, breakout pitchers in the mid-price range on tonight’s board. This is a group that includes Patrick Sandoval, Shane McClanahan, in a smaller sample size, Josiah Gray and to a lesser extent, maybe even Tylor Megill and Adbert Alozlay. A matchup with the Dodgers probably takes Megill out of consideration tonight, but the remaining four are certainly worth talking about. Sandoval’s breakout includes a 26.7 K% that doesn’t even capture what his 15.8 SwStr% is capable of, a 51.9 GB% and an 85.2 mph EV (6.1% Barrels/BBE). The only blemish in his profile is a 10% walk rate. A 3.93 SIERA and FIP represent the largest gap between estimators and a 3.39 ERA. Dare say his performance has been strong enough to make him a top value on this board for $8.2K or less even against Houston (120 wRC+ vs LHP). Looking at tonight’s projected lineup, four batters are below a 15% strikeout rate against LHP this year, but nobody else is lower than 25%.

McClanahan pitched a career high seven innings last time out, tying his high in strikeouts with eight as well. Aside from some minor issues in the contact profile (91 mph EV, 8.9% Barrels/BBE), he’s been just what the Rays needed since Tyler Glasnow went down, producing a 20.1 K-BB% with a 15.7 SwStr% that suggests even more is possible. His 3.75 ERA is within half a run of all his estimators with only his xERA (4.13) running higher. The increased workload increases his value as well, especially on DraftKings, where he’s $1.7K less than on FanDuel. The Minnesota lineup, as projected to be constructed, includes three batters above a 28 K% vs LHP this year, but also only two batters above a .318 wOBA.

Throwing 69% fastballs in his first start for the Nationals, striking out just two of 21 Phillies, Josiah Gray cut that down to 51.2% in his second start, striking out 10 of 22 Braves. Combined, Gray has struck out 25 of the 78 major league batters he’s faced this year that doesn’t even do justice to his 18.8 SwStr%. However, those bat missing skills have been a necessity, due to issues with the rest of his profile (11.5 BB%, 23.8 GB%, 13.6% Barrels/BBE). Walks and home runs have not been issues in his brief travels through the minors. Gray faces a number of obstacles today, mostly in considering a positive run environment with a slight weather boost. The Atlanta lineup has gotten deeper recently, but there are also some strikeouts here. Six of eight projected batters exceed a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year. We should probably also talk about the other pitcher in this game. Charlie Morton isn’t a young breakout pitcher, but he’s certainly a guy re-establishing himself this year. Morton has not only re-established his value in this league after an injury plagued, shortened 2020, but he’s also established that he’s more than the five inning, twice through the order pitcher that the Rays and Astros treated him as. More than half of his starts (12 of 23) have been quality starts, which he’s produced with a 19.6 K-BB%, 47.3 GB% and just 4.9% Barrels/BBE. His 3.52 ERA is within 0.15 points of all estimators except for a DRA that’s below three. A rebuilt Washington lineup doesn’t include a ton of strikeouts, but just two batters above a .315 wOBA against RHP this year and Morton costs $9K or less on either site.

Alzolay produced his best start since his blister issues started in San Diego in June last time out. He struck out seven of 26 cross town White Sox batters without a walk or home run through 6.2 innings. It was his second consecutive homerless start after allowing in six of his previous seven. He now has a 22.8 HR/FB (11% Barrels/BBE) on the season behind a 17.3 K-BB%. His 4.71 xERA perfectly matches his ERA with additional non-FIP estimators below four. The allure here is that he’s cheap ($7.6K or less) and in a great spot in Miami. Aside from the negative run environment, Four of eight projected opposing batters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP. We should probably also mention the opposing pitcher here as well. The Miami portion of Jesus Luzardo’s career has begun just as disappointingly as the Oakland chapter closed. He’s each walked and struck out seven of the 46 batters he’s faced, allowing 10 runs over 9.2 innings. There are some bright spots beneath the surface results though. Those include a 17 SwStr% (13.4% on the season), 50% ground ball rate and 83.8 mph EV. A 10.5 BB% and 20.7 HR/FB (10.1% Barrels/BBE) are driving estimators mostly above four and a half with his FIP and xERA running above five this season. The projected lineup for the Cubs in has so much dark red in PlateIQ that it’s hardly even readable. Luzardo is an interesting GPP flyer, especially in an SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight ($6.7K).

Competition at the Top of the Board: A Great Pitcher or a Great Spot?

FanDuel offers four pitchers at $10K or above on a 14 game slate tonight, while DraftKings offers just one. In fact, only three pitchers on DraftKings exceed $9K in cost tonight. The most expensive pitcher on the board, the best pitcher on the board and only one above $10K on both sites is Zack Wheeler. If you look beyond surface results, Zack Wheeler is the most deserving NL Cy Young candidate this year, most recently with a two-hit shutout of the Mets with 11 strikeouts. Wheeler not only has those surface results (2.42 ERA), but the underlying metrics (23.9 K-BB%, 50.3 GB%, 84.7 mph EV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE), along with tremendous volume (at least seven innings pitched in 15 of 23 starts) to back it up. A 3.13 SIERA Is more than one-third of a run above all his other estimators. Bringing down his value a bit tonight is the matchup. The Reds have a 108 wRC+ and 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP. While they aren’t as potent on the road, Philadelphia is a park that’s comparable to Cincinnati, in that it’s very power friendly and weather conditions won’t be pitcher friendly tonight. Only two batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup exceed a 21 K% vs RHP and none above 24%. If you’re paying up for Wheeler tonight, you’re doing so on the merit of his talent and skills alone, which isn’t necessarily a bad idea should ownership projections run low in this spot.

Robbie Ray is most recently coming off six shutout innings against the Red Sox, but is also carrying just a 22.3 K% and 9.6 BB% over his last four starts, albeit with three of those starts against Boston. That familiarity is likely to favor the offense, which would also make us less concerned about his performance going forward. Ray has made great strides with his control this year (6.8 BB%), while retaining an elite strikeout rate (30.2%) and even improving his contact profile recently (9.4% Barrels/BBE for the year now). His 2.90 ERA is about a half run below estimators between 3.38 (SIERA) and 3.88 (FIP), due to a 90.1 LOB%. He gets a massive park boost. In fact, with the roof closed, Seattle may be the most negative run environment in the league, according to Statcast Park Factors. The projected Seattle lineup also includes five batters above a 24.5 K% vs LHP this year. Ray should challenge Wheeler for the top overall spot tonight and may be the superior value in a much better spot.

Jack Flaherty returns from an oblique injury that has kept him off a major league mound since the end of May. Over three minor league rehab starts at two separate levels, he struck out 11 of 37 batters with a single walk and home run over nine innings, working his way up to four innings and 16 batters in the most recent (AA). Over 11 starts this season, his xERA (4.77 – 90.2 mph EV, 8.6% Barrels/BBE) greatly differs from additional estimators just a bit below four (26.3 K%, 7.8 BB%). He’s over-priced at $10.1K on FanDuel and probably even for $8.3K on DraftKings because he’s likely to be facing a limited workload in his first start back.

Julio Urias has exceeded five strikeouts in just three of his last 13 starts and is down to a 21.6 K% (9.4 SwStr%) over his last five. However, he’s still above a 20 K-BB% on the season because he throws strikes (5.1 BB%). He also continues to avoid hard contact (86.2 mph EV, 6% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.48 xERA that’s very close to his 3.41 ERA. In fact, estimators are all tightly packed between 3.41 (FIP and 3.58 (SIERA, xFIP). Urias gets a park upgrade with Citi Field being one of the most negative run environments in the league, though Weather Edge suggests that pitcher friendliness may be in jeopardy tonight. Optimistically, there are four batters in the lineup projected to face Urias above a 27 K% vs LHP this season. However, volume might be an issue here. One of the reason Urias’s raw strikeout totals over this 13 start run have been lower is because he’s only completed six innings four times in this stretch. With just a $100 point difference in price between sites, Urias may be a tough pay up on either tonight.

Reduced Price Tags for a Struggling Offense in a HIgh Upside Spot

On one hand, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the struggling Mets’ offense near the top of the board at 5.21 implied runs tonight, especially in the notoriously negative run environment of Citi Field. On the other hand, Pete Alonso (101 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP this year) is the highest costing batter in the projected lineup on either site and just $4.2K on DK or $3.8K on FanDuel, so if oddsmakers are right, Mets’ bats could be among some of the best values on the board tonight. Let’s explore a couple of reasons why that might be the case. Firstly, Weather Edge currently gives Citi Field a significant offensive and power boost tonight, enough to actually make it a slightly positive run environment tonight, if considering Statcast Park Factors. There’s also the factor of a favorable matchup. In seven starts (plus one long relief outing) since finding a more permanent home in the rotation, Paolo Espino has a 4.79 ERA (11.8 K-BB%) that runs closely to his 4.66 FIP and 4.96 xFIP over this span. RHBs (.320 wOBA, .341 xwOBA) have had a bit more success against LHBs (.283 wOBA, .307 xwOBA) against him this season, which makes J.D. Davis (167 wRC+, .214 ISO) one of the more interesting bats in the projected lineup tonight. Lastly, a Washington bullpen that has traded off pieces at the deadline now has a 6.46 ERA, 5.37 FIP and 5.03 xFIP over the last 30 days, so the Mets should be in decent hitting spots for the entirety of the game.

A Pair of Young Pitchers Struggling with Platoon Splits

Luis Patino and Casey Mize both entered the season as highly regarded pitching prospects and while Mize has been somewhat successful with a 3.67 ERA and lot of ground balls, his estimators are about a run higher and something else that both pitchers have in common is that issues with left-handed batters have stood in the way of their development. For Patino, he gets a significant park downgrade at Fenway tonight, where the home team is hovering around five implied runs. The good news for him is that the projected Boston lineup includes just one above average LHB, but he’s also one of the top LHBs in the league. Patino’s platoon split is near 150 points by wOBA (LHBs .385) and 100 by xwOBA (LHBs .360) and Rafael Devers owns a 155 wRC+ and .343 ISO against RHP this year. His 148 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall also tops tonight’s projected lineup. Jarren Duran has struggled in his rookie season (49 wRC+ vs RHP), but has shown some pop (.194 ISO vs RHP) and costs $3.1K or less on either site tonight.

For Mize, LHBs have a .341 wOBA and .366 xwOBA against him this year, a near 50 point split by actual results or Statcast expected ones. While he’ll also experience a park downgrade in Baltimore, the projected lineup for the Orioles also includes just one above average left-handed bat, but Cedric Mullins (156 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP this season) is one of the top bats on the board tonight and despite the lack of productive LHBs in this lineup, the Orioles still own a top 10 implied run line tonight (4.81).

The Value in the Top Projected Offense Tonight

The Chicago White Sox jumped all over a rookie Minnesota pitcher last night and the same story may be writing itself tonight again. The White Sox currently own a board high 5.78 implied run line with only the Yankees, facing a rookie left-hander in a potentially weather aided Kansas City park, with half a run of them. Griffin Jax has just a 7.2 K-BB% this year, allowing eight home runs over 32 innings with just a 31.7 GB% and 12.7% Barrels/BBE. He didn’t strike out a single batter in his last start. A 4.90 xERA is his only estimator below five. In a small sample, Jax has actually exhibited a substantial platoon split with RHBs owning a .384 wOBA against him and LHBs just a .231 wOBA, though Statcast brings that up to .276. What that actually does is give more value to Eloy Jimenez (137 wRC+, .288 ISO career vs RHP) and Luis Robert (100 wRC+, .177 ISO), who have missed most of the season and still carry some very reasonable price tags as they still work to re-establish themselves. Robert, in particular, costs less than $3.5K on DraftKings and $3K on FanDuel, while Tim Anderson (118 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP this season) and Jose Abreu (111 wRC+, .176 ISO) are much more expensive.

This Offense Has Turned it Around Against LHP

Seven of either 26 or 30 teams (depending on which site you are playing on) reach the five implied run mark on Tuesday with another nine above 4.7 runs. With hitter friendly weather conditions across the country, it’s an offensive oriented slate on Tuesday night. The Detroit Tigers are one of those offenses with a team run line above five (5.19), as they’ve come a long way against LHP (98 wRC+) and get a park bump in Baltimore against Keegan Akin, who has been shelled for 10.5% Barrels/BBE with a 90.2 mph on just a 36.8 GB% and 11.3 K-BB%. While his 7.66 ERA is probably a bit unfortunate (.377 BABIP, 59.4 LOB%), he doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half. Detroit projects to stack their lineup entirely right-handed, which creates further problems for Akin, as batters from that side own a .380 wOBA (.374 xwOBA) against him this year. Should the Tigers get to Akin and knock him out early, the Baltimore bullpen owns a major league worst 6.85 ERA over the last 30 days, supported by a 4.93 xFIP that’s third worst. Jonathan Schoop (180 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Eric Haase (189 wRC+, .402 ISO) have absolutely destroyed LHP this season, while Robbie Grossman (137 wRC+, .226 ISO) may bump up to the leadoff spot against a lefty and costs a manageable $4K on DraftKings. No Detroit batter projected to start tonight exceeds a $3.4K on FanDuel.

A Couple of West Coast Pitchers in Decent Spots

With the most expensive pitchers on the board facing some difficult situations, this might be the ideal slate to pay down for pitchers tonight. While it might be wrong to call Alex Wood a pay down, per say, he is less than $10K on both sites and even less than $9K on FanDuel. He’s also in a strong enough spot that he may be one of the top pitchers on the board. If people were waiting for him to crack, Wood has allowed 13 runs over his last 19.1 innings, but with a healthy 16.8 K-BB% and 55 GB% that are very close to his season rates. A 4.04 xERA matches his 4.03 ERA. All additional estimators are below four, but within half a run of his actual results. He’s at home tonight, where the Diamondbacks will visit. While only two batters in the projected Arizona lineup exceed a 20 K% vs LHP, we’re dealing with a lot of small sample sizes and just three batters above a .300 wOBA and .100 ISO vs LHP this season. Wood should be able to shut this lineup down.

The Eduardo Rodriguez Regression Tour hit a bump against the Blue Jays two starts back, but got right back on track in a major way, striking out 10 of 21 Tigers last time out. In fact, ERod has struck out 27 of his last 69 batters with a 15 SwStr%. He’s still sitting on an ERA above five (5.33) with estimators all more than a run and a half lower (.367 BABIP, 65.7 LOB%). He’s at home, in another positive run environment, against an improved offense against LHP with the addition of Nelson Cruz, but five of nine projected Tampa Bay batters still have a 23.5 K% or higher vs LHP this season and Rodriguez costs just $8K on FanDuel.

With 10 runs over his last 13.1 innings, Logan Gilbert’s ERA has moved above four, though all estimators remain below three, some more than half a run below his actual ERA. If he’s had any issues, it’s been in the contact profile with a 90.7 mph EV and 35.3 GB%, but he’s still only allowed 7.9% Barrels/BBE to go along with a 21.8 K-BB%. His recent issues appear to be BABIP (.361) and strand rate (60.4%) related. Seattle is one of the most negative run environments in baseball. The projected Texas lineup includes four batters above a 23.5 K% vs RHP, just one above a .182 ISO and two above a .315 wOBA. Gilbert costs less than $9K on FanDuel as well.

There’s no doubt about it. This is a difficulty priced pitching slate, especially on DraftKings, where it’s hard to find anyone below $9K in a decent spot or with much upside. For those looking for a cheap SP2, one guy who may be worth a flyer at a very cheap price is Aaron Ashby ($4.4K). DraftKings is including the double header on their main slate and while the weather is not at all pitcher friendly at Wrigley today, the Cubbies have been producing lineups that have been tough to look at recently and Ashby struck out 36% (17 SwStr%) with a 67.2 GB% in 62.1 AAA innings this year.

Top Arms in Difficult Spots Tonight

Max Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the board and the only one who costs more than $10K on both sites tonight. He struck out 10 of the 27 Astros he faced in his first start for the Dodgers and leads the slate with a 34.5 K%. In fact, he has the only strikeout rate above 30% today. If there’s been any decline, it’s not in how often opposing batters make contact, but the quality of that contact with 11.1% Barrels/BBE. Even still, a 3.16 xERA is less than half a run above his 2.75 ERA. A 3.54 FIP is the worst of his estimators. Only two of eight batters in the projected lineup for the Phillies exceed a 21.5 K% vs RHP this season, but Scherzer just showed that he can run up the strikeout count even against the toughest lineups in his Dodger debut. Additionally, though, he may be pitching under some tough conditions in a power friendly park. While there’s no reason to suggest Scherzer would be a bad play, he may not be the top value on this slate.

Sean Manaea costs exactly $10K on both sites. The Padres got to him for five runs, as he struck out just four in his second consecutive start against them, dominating San Diego in the first. Over his last six starts, Manaea has become a bit more home run prone (25 HR/FB, 12.2% Barrels/BBE) with a 4.19 ERA (3.81 FIP), but also carries a 28.2 K-BB% (14 SwStr%) and 2.61 xFIP over that span. On the season, Manaea’s ERA and estimators are tightly packed between a 3.24 FIP and 3.66 xERA. The projected Cleveland lineup includes three batters above a 27 K% vs LHP this year, but nobody else above 19%, while some hitter friendly weather enforces the positive run environment Manaea will have to deal with tonight. However, there are just four batters in the projected lineup above a .122 ISO vs LHP this year and just one above a .183 ISO, so it’s still a fine run prevention spot and Manaea has thrown a quality start in 12 of 22 tries this season.

Aaron Nola is $10.5K on DraftKings, but misses $10K by just $100 on FanDuel. A .310 BABIP with just a 70.4 LOB% are responsible for a 4.49 ERA that’s well above any of his estimators, a 3.63 xERA being the closest. He has a very healthy 23.4 K-BB%, though just 40.7% of his contact on the ground. Nola faces the same conditional issues that Scherzer does here, but an even tougher lineup. Just one batter in the projected order for the Dodgers exceeds a 20 K% vs RHP this year.

Lastly, Sonny Gray is $10.3K on DraftKings and $1.1K less on FanDuel. He has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts, shutting down only the slumping Mets over this span, but this has been the product of a .415 BABIP, 55.2 LOB% and 20 HR/FB, as he also has a 16.9 K-BB% and 5.4% Barrels/BBE, resulting in a 3.73 xFIP during this stretch, His 4.44 ERA this season is at least three-quarters of a run above all of his estimators now. He makes it four for four considering top priced pitchers in positive run environments. The projected Atlanta lineup has just three batters below a 23 K% vs RHP this year though. Considering Gray has only hit the six inning mark in five of 16 starts this season, he may be a tad over-valued here. This may not be a slate where it’s absolutely necessary to pay top dollar for your pitching needs.