DFS Alerts
Matchups, Bullpens and Potential Value Plays
A few odds and ends on tonight’s five game board. Should the game at Wrigley be able to skirt potential weather issues, it’s a great spot for the Milwaukee offense. Alec Mills has struck out just four of his last 72 batters (5.5 SwStr%), while LHBs have a .378 wOBA (.372 xwOBA) against him this year and the Cubs’ bullpen has a major league worst 5.78 FIP over the last 30 days. Rowdy Tellez (157 wRC+ L30 days) costs less than $3K on either site. On the other side, Rafael Ortega (163 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) still costs less than $3K on either site and is a potential top value in this spot, despite Freddy Peralta’s mastery of LHBs this year (.241 wOBA, .253 xwOBA).
BvP truthers may notice that Max Kepler and Lucas Giolito have the largest sample of any batter/pitcher matchup on the board tonight and despite Giolito’s changeup fueled reverse split, Kepler has owned this matchup with three home runs and a triple in 32 PAs (.375 xwOBA). However, none of the remaining five Twins with more than 15 PAs against Giolito have fared well against him. The Twins are third from the bottom with just a 3.95 implied run line tonight. Kepler (148 wRC+ L30 days) should probably be looked at as a one off, rather than part of a stack here, though Giolito has been blown up several times this year, including his last start against the Royals.
Eloy Jimenez may not see the same pitcher more than once tonight, but he’s been destroying RHP since returning (301 wRC+, .619 ISO) and costs just $3.1K on FanDuel, where the returning Luis Robert costs the minimum. Brian Goodwin (159 wRC+, .282 ISO) costs just $2.5K, making a White Sox outfield stack a fairly easy endeavor on FanDuel tonight.
Jameson Taillon may be a popular SP2 on DraftKings and players can leverage that somewhat with the few left-handed bats the Royals employ. Batters from that side have a .334 wOBA (.338 xwOBA) against Taillon this year and Weather Edge gives the park in Kansas City more than 10% run boost currently (though that could change). The Royals have a 4.27 implied run line and the Yankees are without closer Aroldis Chapman, meaning left-handed Kansas City batters won’t have to worry about facing him in the ninth. Who knows how long Sam Hentges will be around, but right-handed Cincinnati bats will certainly have the edge while he is. They have a .432 wOBA (.386 xwOBA) against Hentges this year.
The Offense That Could Have the Most Upside with the Least Ownership
With 10 games on the board tonight, 40% of the offenses exceed five implied runs, as Weather Edge is projecting significant run boosts in three of the five parks in play. The park that may receive the biggest boost (Wrigley) also has the only real threat of being postponed due to rain, though oddsmakers give the road team the fourth highest implied run line on the slate (5.25), should that game be played. The Yankees (5.73), White Sox (5.55) and Reds (5.46) are the other highly regarded offenses, which makes the Padres a potential leverage play. That’s partially due to the most (and really only) negative run environment on the slate, which could make Thompson a popular SP2 option on DK tonight. In fact, that the Padres have the fifth highest implied run line at 4.68, despite this, actually speaks quite loudly. Another factor is that Zach Thompson has pitched quite well. Thompson was not much of a prospect, but got the call fairly quickly after striking out 21 of 69 at AAA. He started off just as hot in the majors, but both his strikeouts and velocity have been dropping more recently with just a 15.0 K% and 3.8 K-BB% over his last four starts. While Thompson has done a nice job of stifling RHBs (.243 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), LHBs have been about average according to Statcast (.297 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). Thompson has also been a twice through the order guy, which means we’ll likely see the bullpen handling somewhere around half the workload tonight and they’ve been trending in the wrong direction since trading off some key pieces (5.20 FIP, 4.72 xFIP in August). Each of the first seven batters in the projected San Diego lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year, though Jake Cronenworth (121 wRC+, .202 ISO) is the only LHB above a .200 ISO, while also costing a very reasonable $4K on DraftKings tonight. Generally batting in the top half of the order, make sure Cronenworth is part of any San Diego stacks tonight.
The One Pitcher in a Very Favorable Spot on Monday Night
Monday’s board includes five games, though some slates include just four games, omitting either the earliest in Cleveland or latest in San Diego. None the less, two of the 10 pitchers reach $10K on at least one site tonight and two more reach at least $9K, making 40-50% of any slate top of the board arms and to be honest, they’re somewhat difficult to separate. Freddy Peralta is the most expensive pitcher on either site by at least $500 and available on all slates. He has a 34.1 K% (14.2 SwStr%) that tops the board (on any slate on either site) by a touchdown. An 11% walk rate has hurt his volume occasionally by running his pitch count up quicker, but he’s walked just seven of his last 82. A 32.1 GB% hasn’t been a problem with an 87.1 mph EV, 15.8 IFFB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE. His worst estimator is a 3.66 xFIP. While the projected Cubs’ lineup includes four batters above a 27 K% and just two above a .315 wOBA vs RHP this year, there are two significant issues here and both revolve around weather. Weather Edge suggests a large offensive boost at Wrigley tonight with a double digit wind blowing out towards left-center currently. However, Kevin’s forecast is ORANGE and there’s at least some chance this game doesn’t play at all.
The Kansas City Royals took Lucas Giolito deep three times and scored six total runs against him last time out. Three starts back, he walked five. Overall, Lucas Giolito still has a 20.2 K-BB% with only a 3.31 xERA more than a quarter run removed from a 3.98 ERA. This suggests there’s been some misfortune to a 15.1 HR/FB on a 31.9 GB%, despite just 7.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed just two fewer home runs (22) than barrels (24) this year. While the Twins have a 105 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year, tonight’s projected lineup includes just two above a .325 wOBA and five above a 27 K% vs RHP this year. Here, again, the issue may be that Weather Edge projects a run scoring boost, but in a small sample and with the wind blowing in.
Over his last five starts, Luis Castillo has a (30.2 K% – second best today), 59.7 GB% and 1.78 ERA. Of course, estimators are about double that (95.2 LOB%), but that’s a far cry from where he started the season. He’s produced a quality start in nine of his last 10 efforts. A 4.20 SIERA is the only estimator above his 4.09 ERA this season. The lineup he projects to face includes five batters below a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, but the remaining four above 33%. Cleveland is a slightly positive run environment, but perfectly fine on this slate. In fact, it may be the most negative run environment on slates not including San Diego, considering weather. The biggest issue with Castillo is that he may not be available on your preferred slate. If he is, he’s just the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel tonight ($9.2K).
Joe Musgrove seems to be moving in the right direction with three straight quality starts (19 IP – 3 R) over his last three starts, but two were against the Marlins and Rockies and he struck out more than five in just one. Season numbers are still fantastic (21.5 K-BB%, 87.7 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are packed tightly around three and a half, a bit more than a half run above his 2.87 ERA (.244 BABIP, 79.4 LOB%). The Marlins are also who he’ll be facing again tonight too. While the projected lineup has just one batter above a 24 K% vs RHP this season, there’s also only one batter above a .200 ISO and Musgrove has the only secure negative run environment of the five games. He’s potentially the best value on the board and perhaps the top overall pitching option as well, considering the weather issues in Chicago, for $9K on FanDuel and $5K less on DraftKings. The two issues here would be his availability on your preferred slate and, of course, ownership. On DraftKings slates that don’t include Cleveland and two pitchers are necessary, he would seem a nearly impossible fade.
Additional pitching options include Sam Hentges, who hasn’t started since July 7th and doesn’t have an estimator below 4.90, Alec Mills, who has struck out just four of his last 72 batters (5.5 SwStr%) and has just one start with a double digit SwStr% this year in a spot where the weather may be impossible, Beau Burrows, who is likely an opener and has walked more than he’s struck out in his nine innings out of the pen for the Twins and has a tough assignment against the White Sox, Zach Thompson, who has a 3.8 K-BB% over his last four starts and faces a contact prone San Diego lineup and the matchup in Kansas City, where Jameson Taillon faces Carlos Hernandez in another potentially weather boosted park. Taillon has been fine overall (17 K-BB%, 4.20 SIERA, 3.90 xERA) and will likely be a popular SP2 choice on DraftKings for less than $8K. Hernandez has struck out 18 of 71 (10.4 SwStr%) in four starts. He’s also walked nine with a 32.6 GB% and 90.8 mph EV. A 4.08 ERA is a bit below a 4.30 FIP (11.8 HR/FB) and 4.53 xFIP (.220 BABIP) over this span. The only attraction here is a $6.2K price tag, which will likely garner him some ownership on this slate.
No Park May Be Able to Hold This Pitcher
Oakland is a pretty forgiving park and maybe the ideal place to pitch for a fly ball prone pitcher, but that’s mostly with respect to those pitching for the home team as the A’s have done a pretty fair job of generating power in this park. Mike Foltynewicz presents quite the opportunity for them to do so tonight. He did not allow a home run for the first time in 11 starts last time out, but opponents took him over the wall 20 times in the 10 previous ones. Foltynewicz has a 35.1 GB%, 19.1 HR/FB, 90.9 mph EV and 10.1% Barrels/BBE. With just a 16.3 K%, that’s going to hurt a bit. A 4.97 SIERA is his only estimator below five. It gets even worse against LHBs, who have been kept on the ground with only 27.4% of their contact this year with a .398 wOBA (.394 xwOBA). Matt Olson (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) is the big bat here and has a projected lineup leading 169 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Mitch Moreland (94 wRC+, .150 wRC+) is projected in there tonight and costs less than $3K on either site. Virtually any LHB the A’s decide to place in the lineup should be playable in this spot. Despite the negative run environment, the A’s currently own a 5.16 implied run line that’s seventh bets on a 14 game board.
One Man Wrecking Crew Facing Struggling Prospect
Matt Manning entered the season as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but certainly hasn’t pitched that way since reaching the majors (11.6 K%, 90.9 mph EV through eight starts with a 4.97 xERA). However, his problems have been mostly of the reverse split variety, holding LHBs a .273 wOBA (.303 xwOBA), while RHBs have teed off on him (.396 wOBA, .370 xwOBA). Tonight, we’re looking for RH Cleveland bats who have had some success against same handed pitching…and hello Franmil Reyes, who not only has torched RHP for a 149 wRC+ and .344 ISO this season, but also has a 143 wRC+ over the last 30 days that leads tonight’s projected lineup. Reyes has barreled 19.6% of his contact overall this year. More cost friendly would be Bradley Zimmer (107 wRC+ vs RHP) or Myles Straw (112 wRC+), either potentially leading off and costing less than $3K. Or, with Cleveland not having the depth of RH bats to do significant damage here, Reyes is fine as a one off though the implied run line for this offense is 5.1 runs.
Coors May Not Be the Top Hitting Spot on This Slate
Coors is on the docket tonight, but with two All-Star caliber pitchers and two poor offenses, the game total fails to reach double digits tonight. Players may be more likely to roster pitchers than bats in Colorado tonight, but that’s okay because weather effects may be enough to make another park play nearly as well as Coors tonight, along with giving us potentially the top bat on the slate. That both Marcus Stroman and Kyle Gibson have a 20% strikeout rate and 50% ground ball rate should help them tonight, but this is still and incredibly difficult, weather aided spot for both pitchers in an already hitter and power friendly environment. Ironically, while both pitchers have held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA this season, Statcast boosts batters from the left side against Gibson and either side against Stroman above a .300 xwOBA. That includes a .330 xwOBA for LHBs against Stroman, more than a 50 point boost and you’ve probably figured out where all this is going. Bryce Harper (174 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP this season) has smashed his way to a 195 wRC+ over the last 30 days, the highest mark in either projected lineup and has a .450 xwOBA with the platoon advantage this season. The biggest bargain on the board may be Travis Jankowski (122 wRC+ vs RHP), projected to bat leadoff for $2.5K or less on either site. Both teams have implied run lines at 4.75 tonight, so complete game stacks are viable here, including the leadoff hitter on the other side of this matchup, Brandon Nimmo (125 wRC+ vs RHP) for less than $4K on DK or $3K on FD.
Five Extra-Base Hits in 24 PAs Against Tonight's Pitcher
Ryan Yarbrough’s game is wrapped around elite control (4.4 BB%) with superior contact management (84.1 mph EV, 6.5% Barrels/BBE) and just enough strikeouts (19.7%) to be effective. So why does he have a 4.58 ERA, that’s above all of his non-DRA estimators? One reason would be a 65.1 LOB%. Another would be that eight of his 66 runs have been unearned. He’s also allowed 16 home runs over his last 73.1 innings, despite just 18 barrels. It seems a bit unlucky, but this may not be the spot where it starts to turn around for him as Camden is a very power friendly park and a .326 xwOBA validates a .328 wOBA for RHBs against Yarbrough this year. In addition, Trey Mancini (146 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP this year) has liked what he’s seen when Yarbrough’s been on the mound against him. In 24 PAs, Mancini has homered three times with two more doubles and a .556 xwOBA when the two have faced off. Mancini’s price tag can be made more tolerable with the addition of Austin Hays (142 wRC+, .233 ISO) for less than $3K on either site. Ryan Mountcastle (128 wRC+, .254 ISO) is less than $3.5K as well. Players need to be aware that the Rays have the top bullpen in baseball (2.42 FIP last 30 days) and the O’s are implied for just 4.3 runs, but the top half the lineup should get three cracks at Yarbrough tonight and they have handled LHP very well as a unit this year (111 wRC+).
Worst Pen in Baseball in the Most Dangerous Park
A rare bright spot in the Pittsburgh rotation, J.T. Brubaker has produced an 18.0 K-BB% this year, but has run into significant long ball issues (21.4 HR/FB). Labelling him as home run prone may not be fair yet because his contact profile includes a perfectly average 88.4 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE with 21 of his 25 barrels leaving the yard. None the less, Cincinnati is a difficult park in which to expect his home run regression tour to begin. Oddsmakers agree, as the Reds have the second highest team total (5.54 runs) on the board. That’s not entirely on Brubaker though, as the Pittsburgh bullpen is the only one in the league with both a FIP (5.21) and xFIP (5.02) above five over the last 30 days and don’t forget that they subtracted key pieces last week too. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .317 and .328 wOBA and xwOBA against Brubaker this year, negating any real platoon split. The fire that is Joey Votto (176 wRC+, .354 ISO vs RHP this year, 189 wRC+ last 30 days) is going to cost you plenty tonight, but Nick Castellanos (156 wRC+, .253 ISO) is a strong value at $4K or less on either site, allowing players to add that powerful combo at a more reasonable price. Castellanos has a 199 wRC+ and .360 ISO at home this year.
Ground Balls and Strikeouts in the Middle of the Board
German Marquez, Logan Webb, Patrick Sandoval and Sandy Alcantara all have several factors in common tonight. They all generate more than half their contact on the ground with a strikeout rate above 22% and cost below $9K tonight (Marquez’s FanDuel price tag being the lone exception). Marquez (25 K%, 13 SwStr%, 52.6 GB%, 3.7 Barrels/BBE) and Alcantara (22.2 K%, 54.1 GB%, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) actually face off against each other at Coors, but the offenses are so bad (Marlins 90 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP – Rockies 73 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP) that they still may two of the top arms on the board tonight. Marquez has a 3.51 ERA that’s within half a run of all his estimators and has completed six inning in 14 of his last 15 starts. The Miami projected lineup includes five batters above a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Some extra off time in July seemed to help Alcantara. Strikeouts had been slipping going into the month, but he tied a season high, whiffing 10 Yankees last time out. Estimators are back below four, including a 3.23 xERA that runs fairly closely to his 3.12 ERA. The projected Colorado lineup includes just three above a 24 K% vs RHP, but also only as many above a .325 wOBA against RHP this year, despite the environmental effects of Coors.
Webb’s strikeout rate is down to 19.8% in five starts back from the IL, but his ground ball rate is up to 64.7% over this span. His season rates are a 24.1 K% with a 60.3 GB% and just 6.4% Barrels/BBE without a single estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from his 3.33 ERA. The Milwaukee lineup has improved at the deadline, now including only three above a 23.5 K% among those projected tonight, but it’s also a neutral run environment and Webb costs $7.6K or less on either site.
Patrick Sandoval walked six Oakland batters the start after he nearly threw a no-hitter with 12 strikeouts. It was the second time he’d walked at least five in a start, but otherwise no more than two this year. He had also completed seven innings in three straight before last time out. He has a 27.4 K%, 52.6 GB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE (85.4 mph EV) on the season. A full season of that generally puts you in Cy Young contention. The Dodgers have a manageable 99 wRC+ vs LHP and three of eight projected batters have at least a 27 K% vs LHP this season. Sandoval is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and is a great GPP leverage play if players fear the Dodger lineup too much to roster him.
Two more quality pitchers we find below $8K on DraftKings are Nathan Eovaldi (23.6 K%) and J.T. Brubaker (23.8 K%) in high risk matchups. Eovaldi has a 29.7 K% (13.4 SwStr%) over his last four starts and now a 19.3 K-BB% with just 5.6% Barrels/BBE on the year. His 3.71 ERA is a near perfect match to his 3.73 SIERA with additional non-FIP estimators a bit lower, but pitches in Toronto (Blue Jays 114 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Brubaker has produced an 18.0 K-BB% this year, but has run into significant long ball issues (21.4 HR/FB). The good news is that his contact profile emits a perfectly average 88.4 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE with 21 of his 25 barrels leaving the yard, so he should be able to get through this. The bad news is that he pitches in the most power friendly park in the league tonight (Reds 109 wRC+, 18.8 HR/FB at home).
Heavy Workloads at the Top of Tonight's Board
Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on either site tonight and does so on both at exactly that cost on DraftKings and $1K more on FanDuel. He was knocked off the mound after just four innings, allowing five runs to the Braves last time out, but is still carrying a 31.3 K-BB%, 50.6 GB% and 85.5 mph EV (2.6% Barrels/BBE) on the season. While the production hasn’t been as strong lately, it’s remained pretty damned good. He still doesn’t have an estimator above two and a half and had gone five straight starts with one run or less until his most recent effort. Quite simply, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board because he’s the top pitcher on the board. While the Giants have a 109 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, they also strike out 25.7% of the time. Tonight’s projected lineup includes four batters above a 24 K% vs RHP this year.
While nobody else reaches $10K on either site, four more pitchers cost more than $9K on both sites with the common theme here being volume. Adam Wainwright and Chris Bassitt have completed seven innings a combined 21 times this year with both pitchers in double digits. Rather than tiring, the nearly 40 year-old Wainwright has now completed seven innings in three straight and 11 of 21 starts this year with a 16.4 K-BB% that’s his best mark since 2013. Estimators hover around four, about a half run above his 3.53 ERA. We don’t know if we’re going to get the upside with Wainwright, but he should have a solid floor in a great run prevention spot (Royals 78 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs RHP, 58 wRC+ last seven days) against a lineup that loses the DH in a favorable park. The projected Kansas City lineup includes five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but nobody else above 18%.
Bassitt has a 19 K-BB% and has completed seven innings in 10 of 22 starts this year, allowing 7.2% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are all below four, a bit above his 3.28 ERA. He has an even better matchup in an even better park. The Rangers have a 79 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ on the road and 65 wRC+ over the last seven days. However, their new look lineup includes just four batters above a 23 K% vs RHP this year and four below 20%.
Alek Manoah is a bit of a surprise here. He threw seven shutout innings in his first start in three weeks last time out. He only struck out four of 24 Royals with a 31.6 GB%, but a deeper look uncovers a 12.4 SwStr% and 85.2 mph EV. Manoah has the most upside of the three, but also the most difficult matchup and park. He has had a double digit SwStr% in all nine starts with a 20.9 K-BB% overall and estimators mostly around four, but a 3.07 xERA. The .211 BABIP and 84.6 LOB% won’t stand up over time, but he’s done some quality work since being called up. The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP with tonight’s projected lineup including four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year. Aside from Burnes though, if you’re paying up for pitching tonight, you’re mostly doing so for workload and floor, but there are also some strong candidates in the mid-range, so it’s not mandatory.
This Pitcher Has Made Improvements, But Still Struggles Against LHBs
Casey Mize has shown some improvements this year, more in his contact profile with more than half of it on the ground (51.4%) than in the strikeout department (19.4%). He also has one of the widest splits on the board, favoring left-handed batters (.346 wOBA, .368 xwOBA). The Red Sox have been struggling and the lineup only projects two above average LHBs for them, but Rafael Devers (159 wRC+, .353 ISO vs RHP this season) may be one of the top bats on the board and while Alex Verdugo has been struggling (70 wRC+ last 30 days), his numbers against RHP (142 wRC+, .204 ISO) are still strong enough to make him a potentially the top value in this lineup for less than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. The Red Sox currently have an implied run line just below five runs, so oddsmakers are expecting somebody else to step up as well, but make sure to include these two LHBs in any Boston stacks.
Cheap Bats Surrounding Superstar
To look at this Washington lineup, one has to wonder about Juan Soto’s sanity for the next couple of years as they rebuild. However, from a daily fantasy standpoint, this can play to our advantage because while Soto (157 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) is going to be expensive, the rest of the lineup is going to come really cheap, giving you a top bat with plenty of room to spare with a stack in the right situation. Tonight might be one of those situations as Chase Anderson makes his return to the Philadelphia rotation (maybe not the Anderson the Phillies thought they’d have pitching in this spot a week ago). He recently returned to the team in a bullpen role after being booted from the rotation in mid-May. A 7.6 K-BB% is responsible for his downfall and while he’s only stranded 61.5% of runners, all estimators are above five. Anderson has carried a reverse split at times during his career, but it’s a 149 point difference this year. However, Statcast closes the gap to nine points between a .340 and .350 xwOBA. In a positive environment in Washington, nearly everybody is in play here as the projected lineup for the Nats includes four batters at or below $2.5K on either site. Yadiel Hernandez (114 wRC+ vs RHP, 248 wRC+ last 30 days) may be the bargain with the most upside here, but Carter Kieboom (128 wRC+ vs RHP) is finally showing some signs of life with the bat too. The Nationals have a fairly healthy 4.75 implied run line and while the Philadelphia bullpen brought in some deadline reinforcement, it’s still a below average pen that’s been worked hard in this series.
This Lineup Suddenly Looks Loaded Again
Like last night, both the Rockies and Yankees exceed six implied runs with the former facing not only Alec Mills, but the worst bullpen FIP in baseball (6.19) over the last 30 days and his recently traded off it’s best pieces, and the latter facing Matt Harvey (who hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts) at Yankee Stadium. However, tonight, only three more teams reach five implied runs, which may narrow down offensive ownership a bit, though there are eight more teams in the 4.5 to 4.9 range. Perhaps the highest ownership on the board might be reserved for Rafael Ortega (166 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP), leading off against Jon Gray at Coors and for just $2.5K on DraftKings, he’s going to be a very tough fade due to the potential upside plus what he allows you to do with the rest of your lineup.
To find some other top bats on the slate, let’s travel further west to Dodger Stadium, which Statcast Park Factors now suggest is a neutral and power friendly run environment, where a healthier Dodger lineup will take on Jake Odorizzi. A 14.1 K-BB% is fine for a back end starter, but as a fly ball pitcher (37.8 GB%), the contact has been a bit harder than usual (90.8 mph EV), which is bad news against this lineup. There’s also the fact that All-Star closer Ryan Pressly is on the paternity list, though the Astros did beef up their pen at the deadline. LHBs have a .342 wOBA (.329 xwOBA) against Odorizzi this year though and while RHBs have just a .260 wOBA, Statcast bumps that up 52 points too. The Dodgers did not get their revenge on the Astros for the perceived “stolen championship” a few years ago last night, but this may be the night they break out with a projected lineup that includes six batters with at least a 115 wRC+ against RHP this year and also six above a .180 ISO. Up top, Mookie Betts (135 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Max Muncy (151 wRC+, .270 ISO) are two of the top bats on the board. They, along with Chris Taylor (126 wRC+, .185 ISO), Justin Turner (146 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Will Smith (162 wRC+, .268 ISO) all exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while the bargain here may be Corey Seager (115 wRC+, .136 ISO), projected to bat cleanup for just $3K on FanDuel, as he works his way back from injury. The Dodgers currently sit fifth on the board with a 5.09 team total.
The Regression Tour Hit a Wall, But Ready to Start Back Up Again
So much for the Eduardo Rodriguez regression tour. He was stomped for six runs over 3.1 innings by the Yankees at Fenway last time out, despite striking out eight of 21 batters. The .778 BABIP was ridiculous, driving his season rate back up to .369 with just a 64% strand rate, but he also walked four and allowed a lot of loud contact (92.6 mph EV). Some of this was his fault. None the less, estimators remain two runs below his 5.60 ERA. Four of the first five projected batters in the Detroit lineup and five overall exceed 24.5 K% vs LHP this season. At $9K on DraftKings, ERod is a marginal option, but a great GPP play for $1.4K less on FanDuel.
Below him, in the $7K range, it’s not that a lot of lower priced pitchers are incredibly trust worthy or they’d certainly cost a lot more, but there are some interesting names lower on the board, especially for those in the SP2 market on DraftKings. Drew Smyly’s 24.1 K% in July was his highest of any month, but so was a 10.2 BB%. After a very rough start to the season, his ERA is down to a respectable 4.40, but estimators are a bit higher, partially because six of his 51 runs have been unearned. The Cardinals have a predominantly RH lineup, but just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP and play in a very pitcher friendly park. Smyly won’t have to do too much to pay off $6.8K on DraftKings.
Sure, there’s Coors, but the Cubs have a team 77 wRC+ on the road this year and four batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP. Jon Gray’s 21.7 K% and 50.9 GB% have some value, specifically with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE while pitching half his games at Coors. He costs just $7.2K on DK tonight. Lastly, through eight starts, Zach Thompson has estimators around four with a 25.9 K%. While the strikeout rate has been dropping recently, he faces a struggling offense (Mets 77 wRC+ last seven days) in a favorable park for just $7K on DK.
One Top of the Board Pitching Option Sticks Out
On an 11 game Wednesday night slate, it’s interesting that no single pitcher reaches $10K on both sites, but five different pitchers are at least $10K on either FanDuel or DraftKings tonight and it’s questionable if most of them are worth it. The highest price tag on the board belongs to Shohei Ohtani on FanDuel ($10.7K). It now seems that we can trust that Yankee Stadium debacle was just a blip on the radar. Ohtani hasn’t otherwise walked more than two in a start since May. His strikeout rate was just 22.7% in July, but with a 12.7 SwStr% and only three starts. With a 30.1 K% and 10.8 SwStr%, he’s very close to a 20 K-BB% and though all of his estimators are above a 3.04 ERA, none of them reach four. He’s in a favorable spot in Texas, which is a slightly negative run environment with the roof closed. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but nobody else above 17%. It’s a young lineup with a lot of turnover this season and not very good without Joey Gallo. That being said, Ohtani is a very good pitcher, but does not often go exceptionally deep into games and may be a bit over-valued here.
Lucas Gioilto is the second most expensive pitcher at $10.6K on DraftKings. He has been a bit inconsistent and home run prone at times this year with only 32.1% of his contact on the ground, but has allowed just one home run over his last four starts and five runs over his last 26.1 innings. The strikeout rate is down a bit from the last two years (28.4%), but with a 15.1 SwStr%, the stuff is certainly still there. His 3.67 ERA is very closely aligned with most estimators, though a 3.31 xERA is a bit lower. Injuries and trades have taken a couple of middle of the order bats out of the lineup of a Kansas City offense with a 44 wRC+ and 21.3 K-BB% over the last week. Now the projected middle of this order (three through six) includes four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP. Giolito may be the top pitcher on the slate and top value on FanDuel for $9.2K.
Next up is Max Scherzer, who brings his 34.3 K% (16.1 SwStr%) with just a 6.5 BB% to Los Angeles. The contact profile leaves a bit to be desired this year with 11.4% Barrels/BBE, despite only 34.7% of contact above a 95 mph EV. His 2.76 ERA is at least a quarter run below all estimators, the worst of which is a 3.59 FIP (14.6 HR/FB). The problem here is the Houston Astros (119 wRC+, 19.8 K% vs RHP). Just two of the projected eight exceed an 18 K% vs RHP this year, but they do lose the DH. While the matchup is awful, it’s tough to be against a motivated Max Scherzer succeeding, so the best option here may be to do the opposite of whatever ownership projections suggest.
Next we have Jameson Taillon ($10.2K) on DraftKings. He’s struck out just 16 of his last 96 with a 27.1 GB% and 89.1 mph EV. A .206 BABIP, 90.5 LOB% and 5.0 HR/FB are responsible for his recent run prevention success. Even against the Orioles (84 wRC+ vs RHP), he’s over-priced on DraftKings, though maybe viable for more than $2K less on FanDuel in more of a safe way than an upside one. The most difficult pitcher on the slate might be Kevin Gausman, who has now allowed 11 runs (all earned) over his last 11.2 innings, covering three starts. He did strike out nine of 21 Astros last time out though. Gausman has a 29.4 GB%, 33.3 HR/FB and 92.3 mph EV over this span, walking nine of 61 batters with 16 strikeouts (9.1 SwStr%). For the season, his ERA is still just 2.35 with all estimators below three and a half. He is in a great rebound spot with only three of eight projected Diamondbacks below a 23 K% vs RHP and only one above a .152 ISO this year, according to PlateIQ. Gausman is exactly $10K on FanDuel and just $300 less on DraftKings. It’ll be interesting to see his ownership projections in this spot.