DFS Alerts
Choices Between Volume and Strikeout Potential at the Top of the Board
Just one game short of a full slate, Walker Buehler is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites and also the only one on DraftKings. He can be considered the top pitcher on the board because nobody else on it has consistently pitched as deep into games and few have a higher strikeout rate. With his strikeout rate now up to 27%, Buehler’s worst estimator is just a 3.70 SIERA, while he’s failed to produce a quality start just three times this year. A .237 BABIP, 85 LOB% and 9.5 HR/FB have his ERA sitting at 2.09, which factors into the cost as well and may bring down his value slightly, but five batters in the projected opposing lineup have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP and Buehler struck out 10 of these Mets in his last start.
The pitcher who does lead the slate with a 30.3 K% (two start minimum) misses $10K by just $100 on DraftKings and is $600 more on FanDuel. Along with the elite strikeout rate (15.1 SwStr%), Robbie Ray has cut down his walk rate to 6.7%, but has also failed to allow a home run in five of his last seven stats. This, despite a five point drop in his ground ball rate from 39.6% on the season to 34.6% over this span. His exit velocity is down over two and a half mph (88.4), nearly dropping it under 90 mph on the season and dropping his Barrels/BBE mark into single digits (9.5%) and his xERA to 3.66. As a slight negative, the Tigers now have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP, as they’ve been pummeling southpaws over the last few months, but five of nine projected starts still exceed a 23.5 K% vs LHP this year.
In his first major league start in two years, Chris Sale allowed two home runs to a Baltimore offense that handles LHP pretty well, but also struck out eight of 20 batters (18 SwStr%) without a walk, 58.3% of his contact on the ground and a 77.4 mph EV, while holding steady with his 2019 velocity. Is it that easy? The Red Sox slowly built him up through five rehab starts to 89 pitches in his first start, so there shouldn’t be any workload concerns, but he already costs $10.7K on FanDuel ($1K less on DraftKings). It’s tough to argue he’s in a great spot (Texas 74 wRC+ on the road, 79 wRC+ vs LHP). However, while there are three batters in the projected Texas lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP this year, nobody else exceeds 18.2%. Sale will also be pitching in the second most positive run environment on the slate with a possible weather boost, according to Weather Edge (though that could change).
The only other pitcher above $9K on both sites is Lucas Giolito. Consistency hasn’t been his strong suit this year. In fact, he’s lasted just four innings in two of his last three starts, but the overall numbers are still fairly strong, while he’s produced quality starts in half of his 24 efforts. With a 20.8 K-BB%, contact neutral estimators run in the upper threes, but there’s a bit of conflict between a 15.6 HR/FB and 7.4% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed 24 home runs, but just 27 barrels. Hence, a disconnect between a 4.01 FIP and 3.40 xERA, his worst and best estimators. Thus, Giolito may be the top value among the top arms because despite Tampa Bay’s 110 wRC+ at home and 112 wRC+ vs RHP, it’s a securely negative run environment, unaffected by weather, with five of nine projected batters owning a 24.5 K% or worse against RHP this year.
This is the Top Bat on the Board Tonight
The Phillies have a 5.37 implied run line that’s near the top of the board, though well off the top number tonight. However, it seems fairly clear that Bryce Harper is the top available bat tonight. Humberto Castellanos has thrown just 15.2 major league innings this year and faced only 29 LHBs, but let’s generously assume he’s a slightly worse than league average pitcher with a platoon disadvantage. In fact, LHBs have a .314 wOBA against him (though a .401 xwOBA). Harper has simply destroyed RHP this year (174 wRC+, .333 ISO). He’s also destroyed almost anyone he’s faced over the last month (217 wRC+). Arizona is not Philly, but it is a slightly positive run environment with the roof closed, so Harper doesn’t lose much and even has a 157 wRC+, .257 ISO on the road this year. If you’re concerned about Harper’s exorbitant price tag, Brad Miller (107 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (89 wRC+, .205 ISO) cost about the same as Harper…combined.
Justifying Both Sides of this Matchup Due to Cost
Would you believe, that Mike Foltynewicz has actually thrown 10 quality starts this season, including each of his last two. That’s probably because he has a 5.9 BB%, so all he does is give up solo shots with a .262 BABIP. But, while that makes Folty slightly interesting as an SP2 punt in a negative run environment with the lowest price tag on DK, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t look to roster bats against him. The does have an ERA and estimators above five, along with 33 home runs allowed with LHBs owning a .394 wOBA (.390 xwOBA) against him this year. The Mariners currently reside on the top half of the board at 5.06 implied runs. Leadoff man J.P. Crawford is interesting here, despite the lack of power (99 wRC+, .107 ISO vs RHP this season). One reason is that he’s cheap atop a lineup that’s projected to score some runs. The other might be that he has exhibited power against this particular pitcher in the past. In fact, Crawford has homered three times in 20 PAs against Foltynewicz with a 92.7 mph EV on 16 BBEs. Crawford may be the top value in this lineup, though Abraham Toro (117 wRC+, .244 ISO) costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. When the prices are so low, players can easily justify (and find enough production) with both sides of this matchup tonight.
Smash Spot Despite Negative Run Environment
The Tampa Bay Rays jumped all over John Means last night and then continued the assault on the Baltimore bullpen. That relief corps now owns a major league worst 7.45 ERA, 6.07 FIP and 5.40 xFIP over the last 30 days. This, and the fact that Spenser Watkins is starting, catapult the Rays to the top of the board tonight with a team total of 6.05, more than half a run higher than any other offense, despite the fact that they will be playing in one of the most negative run environments in the league tonight. Watkins has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) over his last 19.2 innings, striking out just 10 of 93 batters with four home runs and a 91.4 mph EV. In 36 innings of work, a 4.96 FIP is his only estimator not well above five, while Watkins has exhibited a reverse split (RHBs .375 wOBA, LHBs .301) that’s supported by Statcast (RHBs .390 xwOBA, LHBs .329). The Tampa Bay lineup is often a difficult one to project, as they seem to run it through a daily randomizer before release, but the simple thing to say is that virtually everyone is playable in this spot. The safe thing to say would be that Brandon Lowe (156 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this year) would be your most desirable bat and one of the top overall bats on the board, likely towards the top of the order. Another would be that Ji-Man Choi (142 wRC+, .212 ISO) might be the value in this lineup for $3.9K on DK and just $2.5K on FD and should make Lowe’s price tag more palatable.
Middle of the Board Offers More Floor than Ceiling
The bad news is that there’s not a lot of upside on the middle of the board today. The somewhat rosterable guys are all pretty much low strikeout, control and contact management artists like Marco Gonzales, Ryan Yarbrough or Zack Greinke. Gonzales appears to be back to form. While that doesn’t mean he’s racking up the strikeouts, in fact, his strikeout rate has barely budged (20% season, 20.3% last 30 days), it does mean excellent control and contact management. He has a 5.0 BB% and 84.8 mph EV over his last four starts with an increase in velocity as well. Estimators are still well above a 4.35 ERA, partially due to just a 12.2 K-BB%, but also because he’s still sitting on 12.5% Barrels/BBE after an awful first few months. However, he’s allowed just six barrels over his last six starts. Why would you consider using him today? He costs $8.2K or less ($7.6K on DK) and the Rangers have just a 78 wRC+ vs LHP with a projected lineup including three above a 28.5 K% vs LHP right in the middle. Texas is also a negative run environment with the roof closed, which it almost always is during the summer.
Yarbrough missed a start, but only one on the COVID IL. His game is elite control (4.2 BB%) and contact management (84.2 mph EV) with just enough strikeouts (19.6%) to have some value. While the Orioles do have a 108 wRC+ vs LHP, they also have just a 90 wRC+, 25 K% and 9.7 HR/FB on the road, while the Trop is one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Strikeout rates in the projected lineup rate marginally, but Yarbrough costs $8K or less and has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him too. The floor seems fairly high here.
Every time you think Greinke might be reaching the end of his usefulness, he does something like go out and shut out the Angels for seven innings on two hits with seven strikeouts. He still has a 5.0 BB% and has allowed just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, but with the strikeout rate dipping to 18.6 K%, all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.51 ERA (80.3 LOB%). None of that’s ideal, but he’s completed seven innings in 10 of 24 starts with quality starts in more than half of them and faces an offense with an 84 wRC+ and 10.3 HR/FB in a marginal run environment, but one that suppresses power. In addition, five of nine in the projected Kansas City lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year, while Greinke costs a reasonable $8.1K on DraftKings.
Additional cheaper SP2 GPP options include Jesus Luzardo has allowed 15 runs over 14.2 innings in his new uniform, walking 11 of 72 batters with just 13 strikeouts and three home runs. On a more positive note, he has a 15.9 SwStr% and 85.8 mph EV for his new team. He just needs to get to strike three before ball four more often. He’s pitching in a great park and three of the eight projected Altanta starters have at least a 27 K% vs LHP. Luzardo is high risk and shouldn’t be touched in cash games, but costs just $6.1K with some upside. Lastly, let’s cringe and note that Mike Foltynewicz has actually thrown 10 quality starts this season, including each of his last two. That’s probably because he has a 5.9 BB%, so all he does is give up solo shots with a .262 BABIP. He costs just $5.1K in a favorable park against a projected lineup that includes six batters with at least a 22.5 K% vs RHP this year.
More Than Just a Five Inning Guy & One of the Top Spots on the Board
Although no single pitcher reaches the $10K price point on both sites on a 10 game slate on Wednesday night, there are two who reach that price point on each site, along with one more above $9K on both. Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the board, carrying a $10.5K price tag on FanDuel. He has made five starts since his disaster at Yankee Stadium and has walked as many over that span (four) as he did in less than one inning in that start. However, his strikeout rate is down to 24.2% (11.5 SwStr%) since then too with a 36 GB%, .224 BABIP, 80.5 LOB% and 2.7 HR/FB. His 2.91 ERA this year is at least a quarter of a run less than all non-DRA estimators. The Tigers have just an 89 wRC+, 25.9 K% and 12.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Four of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 28 K% vs RHP, all in the bottom half of the lineup, while the remaining five are all below 22%. The park is neutreal, but the umpiring situation potentially unfavorable towards Ohtani. He can certainly pull this off and costs nearly $2K less on DraftKings, but has exceeded six strikeouts in just two of his last eight starts. Maybe a dominant start shouldn’t be the expectation here.
Second most costly is Freddy Peralta, who is within $200 of $10K on either site, with a higher price on DraftKings. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board (34.5%) by quite a bit and has allowed more than two runs just three times this year. The only drawback is that he still only has 12 quality starts, which means they’re often being conservative with his pitch counts, but a 10.9 BB% has something to do with that as well. The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ and 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP (9.6 HR/FB at home). However, there are just two batters above a 20.6 K% vs RHP in tonight’s projected lineup. Peralta does get a park upgrade to one of the most negative run environments in play tonight and should be considered one of the top pitchers on the slate, even if we can’t call him an exceptional value at current cost. Next up is Peralta’s opponent, Jack Flaherty ($10.1K on FanDuel, $1K less on DraftKings), who threw six shutout innings, striking out five of 19 Royals in his first start in over two months. He threw 81 pitches and the only negative was an 8.6 SwStr%. Flaherty is sitting on a 19 K-BB% over 12 starts this year with a 4.39 xERA, but all other estimators below four, though about a run above his 2.65 ERA (.231 BABIP, seven of 27 runs unearned). The current version of the projected Milwaukee lineup includes just four batters above a 20.2 K% vs RHP this season. At this point, Flaherty’s cost is probably a bit elevated and difficult to pull any value out of.
The last $10K pitcher tonight costs exactly that on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel. Even Lance Lynn wasn’t invulnerable to the Iowa corn sweat in Iowa. (It’s a thing) He allowed two home runs and four runs, but still struck out seven of 22 Yankees. This brings him up to an 8.9 HR/FB on the season. One slight concern is that his swinging strike rate has been 8.2% or lower in four of his last five starts, as his velocity has been down a bit, but it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate yet. The home run suppression, along with a .257 BABIP and 84.5 LOB% is running his ERA well below contact neutral estimators, though all are still below four. In a somewhat neutral run environment at home, he faces an offense with a 103 wRC+ vs RHP and a projected lineup including just two batters above a 20 K%. Lynn has only gone beyond six innings four times, but does have 12 quality starts in 21 tries. This is a tough one, but Lynn seems accurately priced. He probably won’t hurt you, but may not win a GPP for you either.
Charlie Morton is within $300 of $9.5K on either site and may be the most interesting pitcher and top value on this list. His last 11 efforts include nine quality starts, a 29.9 K%, just seven barrels, a 2.51 ERA, 2.93 FIP and 3.34 xFIP. A 3.66 SIERA is his only estimator above three and a half this year. Morton is no longer a five inning pitcher. In fact, he’s failed to record a sixth inning out in just seven of 24 starts and one of his last 11. His matchup? He faces the Marlins (90 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) in Miami. Five of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. There’s a chance Morton competes with Peralta for the top spot tonight regardless of cost.
Home Run Prone Pitcher & One with Large Splits Makes for an Interesting Game Stack
The game total is a marginal 9.5 in Detroit with neither team above five implied runs, but this is a really interesting spot for bats due to the two pitchers involved. Dylan Bundy has just a 21.1 K%, 10.5% Barrels/BBE and 19.4 HR/FB this year, as batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The projected Detroit lineup only has two batters above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year and just two more above a .200 ISO, but Robbie Grossman (107 wRC+ .167 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (117 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Renato Nunez (92 wRC+, .314 ISO) are all less than $4K on DraftKings tonight, while Eric Haase (85 wRC+, .218 ISO) costs $3.3K on FanDuel. All four are above a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
The other side of this matchup features a possibly tiring young arm with a large platoon split. Casey Mize’s strikeout rate has dropped below 20% (19.2%), while his ground ball rate has dropped below 50% (49.7%), but perhaps most concerning of all is that he had a sizeable velocity dip in his last start. It makes sense as he’s now thrown more innings than he has in any professional season yet. The gap is fairly wide between his ERA (3.66) and his best estimator (4.36 xFIP) and even wider between LHBs (.365 wOBA, .380 xwOBA) and RHBs (.276 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). The Los Angeles lineup doesn’t feature many LHBs, but Shohei Ohtani (173 wRC+, .375 ISO) may be one of the top bats on the board with Jared Walsh (157 wRC+, .260 ISO) not too far behind.
The Affordable Lineup to Pair with Your High Priced Pitcher
The top four team totals on the board (Padres, Rockies, Dodgers, Blue Jays) have everything tonight from Coors to bad bullpens to top bats to great values (Connor Joe is still less than $3K on either site), but there aren’t enough great values in those lineups to both stack a top team and pay up for Corbin Burnes. So where are Burnes backers to look for affordable offense? Despite an implied run line of 3.94 the depleted lineup of the Cubs might be a place to start. Of course, working against them immediately is the fact that they are depleted, but that also means cheap. They’re also facing a pitcher who has not only compiled four straight quality starts, but he’s only allowed five runs over his last 25 innings. Great! Even cheaper! Over those five starts, Vladimir Gutierrez has just a 21.7 K% (9.7 SwStr%) with a .250 BABIP, 91.3 LOB% and 6.9 HR/FB doing most of the work. For the season, he’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE, which generates a 4.60 xERA. And that’s his only estimator below five! Cincinnati is also the most power friendly park in the league. Gutierrez has shown a bit of a reverse split so far (RHBs .341 wOBA, .330 xwOBA), but LHBs have had some success as well (.318 wOBA, .313 xwOBA). Consider the below average bullpen (5.06 ERA & FIP over the last 30 days) and the league’s worst defense behind him (-26 Runs Prevented via Statcast) and this entire lineup is in play for less than $3.5K on FanDuel with only Patrick Wisdom (128 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this year) and Ian Happ (75 wRC+, .150 ISO) costing more than $4K on DraftKings. Robinson Chirinos (165 wRC+, .324 ISO) has a small sample this year, but a decent history of being a bat first catcher and makes for the perfect punt at the position for $2.7K or less. Rafael Ortega (164 wRC+, .205 ISO) should be in the leadoff spot and Frank Schwindel (102 wRC+, .186 ISO) has also been finding a home near the top of the order. He costs just $2.3K on DraftKings.
Struggling Starters Backed by the Worst Bullpens
Looking at the bottom of the bullpen board, we find Orioles (5.93 FIP, 5.36 xFIP) and Nationals (5.33 FIP, 5.27 xFIP) as the only pens in the league with both a FIP and xFIP above five over the last 30 days with the Pirates (5.08 FIP, 4.92 xFIP) coming close and the Cubs owning a ridiculous 6.28 FIP over that span. These are all attackable spots. Since returning from the IL, John Means has a 15 K% with a 5.67 ERA and matching 5.78 xFIP, due purely to that strikeout drop, as everything else seems about the same. He does get a significant park upgrade at the Trop, but the addition of Nelson Cruz (145 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP this year) certainly changes the composition of this lineup against lefties. Kyle Hendricks allowed five runs to the Reds and then nine more to the Brewers within the last month, pushing his ERA up above four, as his strikeout rate is now down to 17.4% on the season. Yet, his lowest estimator (4.45 xFIP) is still well above his ERA (4.15), though his strand rate has finally dropped below 80%. Joey Votto has four home runs and three doubles in 48 PAs against Hendricks and we all know this is the most power friendly park in baseball.
The remaining two spots offer much more obvious attack spots as the two highest team totals outside of Coors tonight. On a positive note, Erick Fedde’s recent struggles are not due to control issues. He’s walked exactly one batter in each of his last five starts with a 51.9 GB% over that span, but also just a 7.5 SwStr% and 91.3 mph EV. He does have a 50 point wOBA split, which plays into his favor here, as he’ll face a predominantly right-handed lineup (.297 wOBA vs Fedde this year), who lose a DH in an NL park. Considering the contact profile though, he has a 4.87 xERA with an xwOBA that pushes up to .325 against RHBs. In a positive run environment, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (183 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP this year) is one of the top non-Coors bats on the slate, while Corey Dickerson (103 wRC+, .133 ISO) costs just $2.2K on FanDuel.
Trea Turner (112 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Will Smith (169 wRC+, .293 ISO) are also two of the top non-Coors bats on the slate and that’s because Wil Crowe has a 100 point reverse split (RHBs .410 wOBA, LHBs .317) that’s confirmed by Statcast (.393 xwOBA, .301). Nobody in the projected lineup for the Dodger lineup is below a .150 ISO vs RHP this season, while only Cody Bellinger and Billy McKinney are below a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season or for the last 30 days overall. The Dodgers should punish Crowe and the struggling bullpen that comes in behind him. Dodger bats aren’t cheap, but Smith is affordably priced at $3.5K on FanDuel.
Quality Middle of the Board Pitchers with Some Upside & Low Priced SP2 Picks
The middle of the board is more interesting than the top tonight. That’s because you generally know what you’re going to get with the top guys and that’s more volume than upside. The lower priced guys are obviously riskier, but there are several who could stand alone with some upside. Alek Manoah has struck out at least nine in three of his last five starts and has a 29.3 K% on the year. He’s allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his 11 starts and while he doesn’t necessarily generate a lot of ground balls (40%), an 86.8 mph EV has kept the barrels to a league average rate on contact (8.3%). His 2.59 ERA is projected to regress, but all estimators are below four. Washington is a positive run environment and the projected lineup doesn’t include anyone exceeding a 25.5 K% vs RHP this year, but it also lacks much potency (nobody above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year) and Manoah costs just $8.6K on DraftKings ($9.9K on FanDuel).
Logan Webb has simply gone unrecognized as one of the better pitchers in the league this year with a well above average strikeout rate (26%) and an elite ground ball rate (60.2%). While his 2.96 ERA is below all of his estimators, it’s only more than half a run removed from a 3.53 xERA. He faces a struggling Mets’ offense (91 wRC+ vs RHP) in a negative run environment. While the Mets don’t strike out a ton, five of eight projected exceed a 23 K% vs RHP. Webb is $8.8K on DraftKings, but $1.2K less on FanDuel and may be the best value on the board.
Sandy Alcantara had a little bit of extra time off after the All-Star break and it seems to have helped as he’s thrown seven shutout innings with a combined 17 Ks in two of his three outings in August, but also allowed 10 runs at Coors in his other with a single strikeout. Let’s choose to believe in the positive as he still had a 12 SwStr% in Colorado. Struggles prior to the break have dropped Alcantara’s strikeout rate to a below average 21.6% at this point, though the contact profile is still exemplary (52.9 GB%, 87.2 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE). Thus, his 3.52 xERA fits closest to his 3.52 ERA with additional estimators going as high as a 4.09 SIERA. We can expect volume with weak ground balls, but a chance for a high strikeout total too. It’s a great park and six of eight in the projected Atlanta lineup have at least a 23.4 K% vs RHP. Alcantara is $9.8K on DraftKings, but more than $1K less on FanDuel.
Covering your lower priced potential SP2 with some quick hits: Bailey Ober has produced an impressive 25.5 K% with just a 6.6 BB%, but has not recorded more than one sixth inning out this year and has struggled with a 19.1 HR/FB. However, all 13 of his barrels have left the yard (7.9% Barrels/BBE), which certainly suggests some improvement on that end. He’s $6.9K in a decent park against a below average Cleveland offense. Opposing him, Eli Morgan has struck out as many as nine twice in his 10 major league starts, but also as few as one twice and has had a single digit SwStr% in five of his last seven with some contact profile issues (26.8 GB%, 11.3% Barrels/BBE). The projected lineup for Minnesota includes four batters with a 28.9 K% or worse vs RHP and Morgan costs $100 less than Ober. German Marquez is facing a very contact prone lineup in the worst park, but has a 3.77 ERA that’s exceeded by only one of his estimators (3.91 SIERA). You rarely see that quality for $7.1K on DraftKings. was breaking out through eight starts earlier in the year (21.8 K-BB%, 3.43 SIERA), but did have some contact profile concerns (91.1 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE, 4.83 xERA) with an 83.8 LOB% producing an ERA just above three (3.02). He worked his way up to 21 batters in his most recent rehab start, striking out seven, but walking four. He returns in a great park in Miami against a projected lineup with four batters above a 26.5 K% vs RHP and doesn’t have to do too much to pay off $7.3K.
A Clear Top Pitcher and Heavy Volume at the Top of the Board
The top of the board on Tuesday includes one pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites, two who reach the $10K price point on one site and then one more who is at least $9K on both sites. Corbin Burnes is far and away the top pitcher on the board tonight. He struck out 15 of the 27 Cubs he faced last time out and has allowed a single run over his last 15 innings. The one potential concern is that the Brewers have been showing a bit more caution with their starters recently and he’s exceeded 95 pitches in five straight starts. Other than that pure speculation, the guy doesn’t have an estimator above two and a half, he gets a park bump in St Louis and the Cardinals have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP. The projected lineup includes just two batters above a 21 K% vs RHP this year, but Burnes has struck out nine of 20 in each of his two outings against St Louis this year. If you’re paying up for pitcher and without ownership concerns, Burnes is your guy.
Chris Bassitt is $10.3K on FanDuel, but $1.2K less on DraftKings. His strikeout rate is up to 25.3% (19.5 K-BB%), while he’s produced quality starts in two-thirds of his 24 starts this year, including seven innings 11 times. While estimators are all a bit above his 3.06 ERA (79.3 LOB%), they’re all tightly packed between 3.36 (FIP) and 3.84 (xFIP). If you’re paying for Bassitt though, you’re paying for volume in a tough spot. It’s a park downgrade and the White Sox have a 117 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB at home. Four of nine in the projected lineup are above a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. Rather than saying Bassitt may be over-priced, the truth is, he’s probably perfectly accurately priced. You’re going to get six to seven innings, but he has one double digit strikeout game all year and that was over three months ago.
Framber Valdez is exactly $10K on DraftKings and $300 less on FanDuel. He has struck out 21 of his last 78 batters to drive his strikeout rate up to a near average 22.3% on the season, but his ground ball rate has dropped below 70% for the first time this season. It was above 70% in 10 of his first 11 starts before dropping below 60% in each of his last two. He still hasn’t dropped below 57% in a single start this year. The biggest issue here is his 14.9 BB% over his last eight starts, though it doesn’t appear to be effecting his workload. Valdez has competed six innings in five of those eight starts. Estimators range from a 3.60 xERA to a 4.11 DRA this year. Kansas City is a slightly more positive run environment than Houston, but the park generally suppresses power much more, though that’s not much of a concern for a guy who rarely generates elevated contact. The real problem here is that the projected lineup for the Royals includes just four batters above a 15 K% vs LHP this year. Valdez may lack the ceiling in this spot to pay off his price tag.
Adam Wainwright is averaging 26 batters faced per game and has completed seven innings in five straight starts, including a two hit shutout of Pittsburgh last time out. That kind of volume with a league average strikeout rate will give you some solid totals with all estimators between three and a half and four. Much like Bassitt, you’re paying for volume with a slightly lower strikeout rate, but Wainwright is cheaper ($700 on FanDuel, $100 on DraftKings) with a better matchup in a better park, although the Brewers have lengthened the lineup with recent pickups. All eight in the projected lineup for Milwaukee are packed between a 16 to 27 K% vs RHP this year. Corbin Burnes is the only real starter on this slate above a 30 K%. If you’re paying up otherwise, it’s for volume and run prevention or floor, rather than ceiling.
Still Getting Ground Balls, But Lots of Barrels Too
An average 4.5 implied run line actually puts the A’s on the bottom half of the board tonight, which makes them somewhat of a contrarian stack. While the ground ball rate remains elite (55.1%), Dallas Keuchel is down to a just a 6.5 K-BB% and is still allowing 9.7% Barrels/BBE. A 4.50 xFIP is the only estimator below his 4.51 ERA with some (5.78 xERA) substantially higher. The Chicago bullpen, as currently built, does have the potential for dominance, but the White Sox are still letting Keuchel push more than twice through the order. While batters from either side of the plate have at least a .315 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, the real outlier is a .377 xwOBA for RHBs with Oakland currently projecting seven batters from that side of the plate. In fact, six of the nine projected exceed a 125 wRC+ against LHP this year. Top values in this lineup include Mark Canha (127 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP this season) for less than $4K on either site and Yan Gomes (147 wRC+, .297 ISO) for less than $3K. Starling Marte (144 wRC+, .174 ISO) has been dominating with his bat (174 wRC+ last 30 days) and legs recently, though Keuchel is one of the toughest pitchers in the league to run against.
Tired Pitching Staff Could Get Blown Up Again Tonight
Rich Hill has struck out just 12 of 79 batters he’s faced as a Met with only 25.5% of his contact on ground. His 5.00 ERA National League ERA is a run above his American League work with estimators even higher. That, alone, makes a San Francisco lineup with a 5.07 team total fairly attractive, but it may get even better. The Mets played two extra-inning games and then a Sunday night affair in New York, where the Dodgers trounced Met pitching so badly that they had to utilized TWO position players on the mound. This tired, over-worked bullpen will be backing a pitcher who hasn’t exceeded five innings or 83 pitches since June! The Giants will likely stack the lineup almost entirely from the right side and such batters have a .322 wOBA (.323 xwOBA) against Hill this year. Also as healthy as they’ve been all season, Wilmer Flores (87 wRC+, .130 ISO), who generally smashes LHP, is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ against them this year, while he and Donovan Solano (102 wRC+, .136 ISO) are the only two below a .200 ISO. Everyone in the projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall (10 PA min.). Austin Slater (127 wRC+, .216 ISO) is projected to lead off. Costing $2.5K or less on either site, he may be the top value on the board tonight. Darin Ruf (164 wRC+, .313 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site as well.
This Lineup Smashed Last NIght and Could Continue Rampaging Tonight
The Dodger offense exploded on the Mets on Sunday night and we could see more of the same as they return home to face the Pirates tonight. While Steven Brault has struck out eight of the 35 batters he’s faced, he’s done so with just a 7.2 SwStr% and 91.7 mph EV. His velocity is also significantly reduced from last season. The real surprise is that he’s walked just one, but has an 11.2% career walk rate over 324.2 innings. Also for his career, LHBs have a league average-ish .304 wOBA against Brault, while RHBs have a .341 wOBA. Brault is also backed by a bullpen with a 5.92 ERA, 4.95 FIP and 4.96 xFIP over the last 30 days. This is a smash spot for the Dodgers, who are essentially tied for the top team total on the board outside Coors at 5.7 runs. Trea Turner (189 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat here, though Cody Bellinger is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Every projected Dodger starter costs less than $4K on FanDuel tonight. A.J. Pollock (149 wRC+, .208 ISO) may be the top value here, at an affordable $4.2K on DraftKings, but the cheapest projected Dodger on FanDuel at an even $3K.
The Worst Bullpen Bumps Bats in a Tough Hitting Environment
Tonight is a hitter’s slate, led off with a Ryan Weathers/Antonio Senzatela matchup at Coors, which gives us the highest two team totals of the night and rightfully so. However, there are nine teams (45% of the board) above 4.9 implied runs tonight, which should help spread things out tonight. One of those teams above five implied runs (5.44), despite potentially the most negative run environment in play tonight, is the Tampa Bay Rays. The majority of Matt Harvey’s issues are derived from a 16.5 K%. His 6.8 BB%, 42.5 GB% and 7.9% Barrels/BBE are all at least competent, if not better. However, he’s also allowed a .331 BABIP, in front of a defense that allows a mark above .300 as well (-18 Runs Prevented is also second worst in baseball), while stranding just 60.9% of runners. While estimators are all well below his 6.10 ERA, only a 4.45 FIP is below four and a half. He may be a bit unlucky, but this is still a pitcher players should be attacking. Although he’s exhibited a bit of a reverse platoon this year (RHBs .382 wOBA, .368 xwOBA), LHBs have had success against him as well (.311 wOBA, .332 xwOBA). There’s also the fact that Harvey is backed by the only bullpen on the board with both a FIP (5.46) and xFIP (5.24) above five over the last 30 days. The Tampa Bay lineup is probably the toughest one in the league to project, so we don’t really know who the top values are until it is confirmed, but Ji-Man Choi (140 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) costs just $2.2K on FanDuel is currently projected to be in the upper half of this lineup. Brandon Lowe (150 wRC+, .287 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup, projected to lead off. He owns a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days.