DFS Alerts

This HItter & LHBs in General Have Punished Seemingly Reliable PItcher

Despite just a 13.2 K% (6.6 SwStr%) over his last five starts, Kyle Hendricks has allowed just 10 runs over 30.2 innings with just six walks and an 83.3 mph EV. He now has quality starts in 12 of his last 13 starts, but is really doing some things that should be unsustainable, which includes an 84.4 LOB% over that span (81.6% on the year). Most estimators are about a run above his 3.61 ERA with just a 17.5 K%. While he does have an 86.7 mph EV, he has still allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Thus, Statcast does not absolve him (4.76 xERA). Hendricks also has a pretty massive platoon split this year with LHBs owning a .368 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) against him. The Reds are actually third from the bottom of the board with 4.04 implied runs tonight with Wrigley expecting to play fairly neutrally tonight, but left-handed Reds should be in ranked fairly highly in your player pool tonight. Jesse Winker (169 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this season) struggled early in July, but has picked it up again since the break. Tyler Naquin (104 wRC+, .199 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site. Joey Votto (151 wRC+, .260 ISO) has a projected lineup leading 171 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but he also has quite the history with Hendricks. The two have faced off in 45 PAs in their careers, resulting in three doubles and three home runs, but also a 92.4 mph EV and .519 xwOBA. If Hendricks were ever asked who his daddy was, he might have to answer: Joey Votto.

Struggling Pitcher & Bullpen Face Off Against Top Offense

Mike Minor has allowed 26 runs (25 earned) over his last 26 innings with just a 13.4 K% (8.3 SwStr%). There’s a .360 BABIP and 47.8 LOB% in there, while his seasonal estimators are now around a run below non-DRA estimators, who don’t see him much worse than league average with a 15.6 K-BB%. However, RHBs now have a .329 wOBA (.335 xwOBA) against him on the season, while he’ll be facing one of the most dominant offenses against LHP this season (115 wRC+) with the White Sox projected to get Eloy Jimenez back tonight. As a result, the White Sox are just outside the group of three above five implied runs tonight and while Kansas City is a power suppressing park, it’s not an overall negative run environment. There’s also the fact that Minor has one of the worst bullpens on the board backing him tonight. Kansas City relievers have combined for a 6.12 ERA and 4.95 FIP over the last 30 days. Andrew Vaughn costs less than $3K on either site and has shredded LHP this year (179 wRC+, .316 ISO). He also carries a projected lineup high 165 wRC+ over the last 30 days. With a decent lineup spot, he may be the top value on the board. Adam Engel is another affordable RHB, who has slugged LHP this year (132 wRC+, .261 ISO). Including both would allow players to more easily afford Jose Abreu (146 wRC+, .337 ISO).

A 27.3 K-BB% Over His Last Five Starts For Less Than $8K

While the good news is that there are a few viable top of the board arms on a seven game slate, the bad news is that it’s slim pickings below that. The resurgent Joe Ross might be the exception in the upside department. Ross has a 30.3 K% and 27.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, though his 11.6 SwStr% over this span isn’t up much from his 11.3 SwStr% on the season. However, a 17.1 K-BB% and 87.6 mph EV has generated a season 4.02 SIERA that perfectly matches his ERA. While all other estimators are higher than that, his none are more than one half run so. His also average his highest single game velocities of the season in his last two starts. The downside is a difficult park in Philadelphia and while the Phillies have just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP, they do have fairly marginal strikeout rates. However, Ross’s cost at less than $8K on either site could make him a top value tonight.

We also have a few lower strikeout guys who generally pitch deep into games. Of that group (Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Hendricks, Wade Miley), Miley may be the most useful. While his 2.72 ERA is well below estimators (79.3 LOB%, 8.9 HR/FB), he has had great control (6.6%) with 51.8% of his contact on the ground and misses enough bats (19.8 K%) to be effective. Add in a superb contact profile on top of that (85.3 mph EV, 5.8% Barrrels/BBE) and you find a 3.60 xERA that’s not far off from a 3.74 xFIP in confirming that he’s been a quality arm if not quite an All-Star performer. He’s also recorded seventh inning outs in six of his last seven starts. The Cubs have a 99 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs LHP this year, while Wrigley is expected to play fairly neutrally tonight. Wade costs $1K less on DraftKings ($8.6K), but carries decent quality start potential.

The only other considerations on this slate in an SP2 spot for less than S7K are in Minnesota. Michael Pineda is facing the Tigers (93 wRC+, 26.1 K% vs RHP) at home, but you’d be looking for a better performance from Pineda than he’s been giving recently and a worse one than recently from the Tigers (125 wRC+ last seven days). Pineda’s struck out just 11 of 100 batters in five starts since the beginning of June with a 92.2 mph EV and his velocity has been trending significantly downward. Estimators range from a 4.26 xFIP to a 5.16 xERA. The projected Detroit lineup includes just two batters below a 23 K% vs RHP this year though. Facing Pineda is Matt Manning. Coming off the best performance of his six start career, he still struck out only four of 23 Rangers. He’ll be looking to prove it wasn’t just a fluke against a lifeless offense, as he carries a 10.5 K% (7.1 SwStr%) with a 4.80 FIP (9.1 HR/FB) his only estimator below five into Minnesota. You’d be betting on pedigree over performance. However, he does cost less than $6K and the projected Twins lineup includes five batters above a 28 K% vs RHP this season.

Top Pitchers in Great Spots on a Small Slate

On just a seven game slate with two starters not yet confirmed, but expected to make their first starts of 2021, it’s a bit of a surprise that three of the remaining 12 pitchers reach the $10 K price point on FanDuel tonight, led by Shohei Ohtani at $11K. Ohtani has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in four of his last five starts, surrounding a break down at Yankee Stadium. After striking out just five of 35 batters, Ohtani bounced back striking out eight of 22 A’s with just one walk last time out. His 31.1 K% easily tops the board, but he also carries an 11.8 BB%. Although all estimators are above his 3.21 ERA, they’re all below four with only a 3.84 SIERA more than a half run removed from actual results. Ohtani is also blessed with the most favorable matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies, who have a 61 wRC+ (8.2 HR/FB) on the road and 70 wRC+ (10.6 HR/FB) vs RHP. The projected lineup has just marginal strikeout rates, but that’s more than enough, considering the expected lack of production. While Ohtani may be accurately priced on FanDuel, he still has some value for $1.8K less on DraftKings.

Do you know who has the second best strikeout rate (28.5%) and top SIERA (3.67) on this slate? His name would be Luis Garcia and he would also be the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites. He may not be as good as his 2.86 ERA (.262 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 9.8 HR/FB), but all non-DRA estimators are below four. Garcia also gets a park bump to one of the most negative run environments in baseball, where the home team has an 85 wRC+ and 27.5 K% at home plus a 91 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP. Tonight’s projected Seattle lineup includes four batters with at least a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Garcia could potentially be the top arm on the slate and the top FanDuel value for exactly $10K.

German Marquez gets a park upgrade anytime he leaves Coors, but he will still face the Angels in a positive run environment. Marquez experienced a velocity drop last time out and allowed four runs to the Mariners over six innings at Coors, striking out only five of 26 batters with just 22.2% of his contact on the ground. He had allowed a total of three runs over his previous five starts, still has a 28.9 K% over his last five starts and a 52.3 GB%, allowing just 3.5% Barrels/BBE for the year. A 3.98 SIERA is his only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 3.50 ERA. The matchup is not ideal. The Angels have a 124 wRC+ (18.7 HR/FB) at home and 103 wRC+ vs RHP. However, tonight’s projected lineup includes five batters with a 23.5 K% or higher vs RHP this year. Marquez is certainly a viable leverage play and may be a top value for $8.4K on DraftKings, assuming the velocity dip was just a blip on the radar.

Surprisingly Poor Numbers Against Same-Handed Batters

A recent New York Times article highlighted Tyler Mahle as being one of the most affected pitchers in the league since the new sticky substance enforcement policy went into effect. The good news is that he’s still missing a lot of bats (29.8 K%, 14.6 SwStr%), but over his last five starts, Mahle has allowed six home runs (of his 14 on the year) and 17 runs (16 earned) over 26.1 IP with a one mph increase in his average exit velocity. His 5.47 ERA nearly matches a 5.45 FIP over this span. The good news is that the upside remains, but it now comes with more risk in a dangerous park. An incredibly shocking number for a guy with an ERA and estimators still below four for the season is that same-handed batters have a .358 wOBA against him this season and while Statcast is a bit more forgiving (.329 xwOBA) that still leaves Mahle in a dangerous spot in a tough park against a predominantly right-handed lineup tonight. While the St Louis offense hasn’t been particularly potent this season, especially against RHP (86 wRC+, 11.5 HR/FB)), they get a pretty significant park upgrade tonight and one guy who has certainly been carrying his share of the load is Tyler O’Neill (139 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP), who costs less than $4K on either site. Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the only other two batters in the projected lineup with a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 vs RHP this year. Oddsmakers are failing to see the flaw in Mahle’s game, as they have the Cardinals implied for just 4.21 runs tonight.

Top Value on the Board Facing Pitcher Pummeled by RHBs

While it’s been entirely against the Padres and Dodgers, Patrick Corbin has struck out just eight of 79 batters over his last three starts. He’s now at a point where is 5.66 ERA is actually above most of his estimators, but right in line with a 5.73 xERA. One might think he gets some relief against in Baltimore tonight, but it’s a very power friendly park and the Orioles are no slouch against LHP (107 wRC+). In fact, Baltimore bats might be some of the top values on the slate, especially on FanDuel, where Trey Mancini (151 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP) and Cedric Mullins (138 wRC+, .187 ISO) are the only projected starters above $3K. Austin Hays (153 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the universal value play tonight for less than $3K on either site. RHBs have pummeled Corbin for a .373 wOBA with an xwOBA just two points lower this year and Baltimore is projected to stack the lineup entirely from that side. While the Orioles carry a healthy 4.74 implied run line tonight that’s just the 10th best number on the board, suggesting many players may overlook this potent spot.

A Tough Home Park is Not Why This Pitcher Struggles

One look at the top of the team run lines tonight makes one think that the Dodgers are facing a the Rockies at Coors. After all, they top the board by more than a quarter of a run at 5.74 implied runs. That’s not the case though. They are actually hosting the Rockies at Dodger Stadium tonight and while Statcast Park Factors suggest that this is much more neutral run environment than we’re used to in recent years, this is still a surprising number. But perhaps it shouldn’t be and maybe the question we need to ask is: Why is Chi Chi Gonzalez still starting games in this league? The Dodgers have put up 10 runs against him in nine innings this season. A 4.94 xFIP is his only estimator below five, while his xERA is approaching seven. You might believe that batters having a wOBA within seven points of .370 against Gonzalez this year is mostly a product of Coors, but you’d be wrong because Statcast neutralizes those numbers to a .362 xwOBA for LBHs and .415 for RHBs. That oddsmakes favor the Dodgers so much with half the lineup missing really says a lot, but Chris Taylor (120 wRC+, .157 ISO) might be the top overall bat on the slate in the leadoff spot. He has a 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days and has already homered several times since the break. Justin Turner (150 wRC+, .179 ISO), Will Smith (164 wRC+, .271 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (132 wRC+, .257 ISO) aren’t far behind and all exceed a 125 wRC+ over the last month. Looking at the projected lineup, the value here might be Matt Beaty (110 wRC+, .124 ISO) at near the minimum. If he’s not near the top of the lineup there may be another cheap Dodger bat who will be as they look to tee off on Chi Chi Gonzalez once again.

Combination of Factors Makes Under the Radar Offense Interesting

It makes a little bit of sense why Joe Girardi gave J.T. Realmuto last night off when looking at his career numbers against Max Fried. In just 22 PAs, Realmuto (121 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this year) has five extra base hits, including two home runs and a triple with a .421 xwOBA. He’s not the only one in the lineup with strong numbers against Fried either. Bryce Harper (116 wRC+, .114 ISO) also has two home runs in 18 PAs with a .520 xwOBA. On their own, these small sample sizes don’t mean much, but Fried hasn’t shown much of a split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .305 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him. In a positive run environment with a hitter friendly umpire, this might be a more interesting spot for the Philadelphia offense than oddsmakers expect (4.18 implied run line) Harper, who has a overall 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days, makes for an exceptionally unconventional play facing a left-handed pitcher. Andrew McCutchen (173 wRC+, .315 ISO) is running a 137 wRC+ over the last month and may be the real value play here for just $3.6K on DraftKings, while Jean Segura (134 wRC+, .170 ISO) is just $100 more.

Surging Offense Also Offers Salary Relief

By combination of ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days, the Kansas City Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball and they could see a lot of action tonight, considering what Kris Bubic has given them in a starting role this season. Splitting his time between the rotation and pen, Bubic has a 5.03 that’s right on his 5.05 SIERA and 5.08 xFIP without a single estimator running lower. He’s had two stretches of at least four outings where he’s generated a ground ball rate above 55%, but has otherwise been very home run prone (19.1 HR/FB) with just a 45.4 GB% for the season in addition to a 7.3 K-BB% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE. After an abysmal start to the season, the Tigers are actually up to a 95 wRC+ vs LHP this season and tonight’s projected lineup includes just two batters below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Detroit also has a 133 team wRC+ since the break. Add in some hitter friendly weather in Kansas City with the wind blowing out to left field and it now all makes sense why the Tigers are the lowest of seven teams above five implied runs tonight. That they have the ability to stack the lineup almost entirely right-handed actually doesn’t matter much as batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Bubic this year. The most enticing part of this equation is that Detroit bats are very affordable with most projected starters below $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. One such value on FanDuel is Eric Haase (205 wRC+, .446 ISO vs LHP) for just $2.9K, even if we still expect his numbers to regress. Jonathan Schoop (159 wRC+, .260 ISO) is one of the more expensive bats in the lineup, but certainly appears worth the cost. Robbie Grossman (147 wRC+, .242 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Considering the lack of low priced pitching options on tonight’s board, stacking Tigers in Kansas City offers some salary relief as well as potency.

Middle of the Board Pitching Has a Lot to Offer Tonight

The middle of the board has quite a bit to offer tonight in terms of starting pitching and we’re going to try to quickly cover several names here. Alex Cobb has issued seven of his 25 walks this season over his last two starts behind a velocity increase. Over his last three starts (two earned runs, 19.2 IP), Cobb has dropped his ERA below four though, where his estimators have stood all season on the basis of a 26.2 K%, 54.9 GB% and 3.6% Barrels/BBE. A Minnesota lineup without Nelson Cruz projects not only less power, but four batters above 30 K% vs RHP this year. The league average ERA and estimators for a starting pitcher are around 4.20 this season. Has anyone noticed that Johnny Cueto is below that (4.01 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.05 FIP). Okay, his remaining estimators are a bit higher with a 4.83 xERA being the most pessimistic, but he’s been more than a serviceable fifth starter in an unexpectedly loaded rotation. The 20.1 K% is respectable with great control (4.6 BB%). He’s in a favorable run prevention spot (Pirates 87 wRC+, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a negative run environment for $7.5K on DraftKings, where he’s not going to win anyone a GPP, but could hold the fort as an SP2.

About a month ago, Eduardo Rodriguez was the most obvious regression candidate in the league with estimators nearly around three runs below an enormous ERA and right on cue, he has a 2.83 ERA over his last five starts while those estimators have gotten even better. Aside from a rogue 4.18 DRA, all are packed tightly between a 3.34 xFIP and 3.65 xFIP. With a 21.9 K-BB% and 87.1 mph EV, one wonders how this man still has a 5.19 ERA. While the Yankees have a 112 wRC+ and 17.7 HR/FB vs LHP, the lineup is a bit light at the moment, but the unfavorable run environment is a concern. Another lefty with a somewhat difficult matchup (A’s 101 wRC+ vs LHP), but a much more favorable park is Yusei Kikuchi. Partially because he pitches in a division with some strong right-handed hitting, Kikuchi seems to be facing a lefty-mashing lineup nearly every time out, yet he has still prevailed with an ERA, SIERA and xFIP all below four, though the FIP (22.5 HR/FB), DRA and xERA (91.1 mph EV, 9.8% Barrels/BBE) stretch to nearly four and a half. Kikuchi has struck out 25.2% of the batters he’s faced and may be a bit better than his contact profile suggests against more neutral competition. Really. Go look at his game log.

Frankie Montas’s 4.33 ERA is very much in line with his DRA (4.39) and xERA (4.27), but those are the worst of his estimators with the remainder below four, though only his FIP (3.73) stretches more than half a run from actual results. Montas has an above average strikeout rate (24.4%) with good control (6.3%), though the contact profile can get him in trouble occasionally (9.6% Barrels/BBE). Montas has nine quality starts this season and there’s a lot to like in his matchup. Seattle is one of the most negative run environments in the league, while the projected home lineup includes five batters above a 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. For less than $9K, Montas has the opportunity to be the top value on the board. The last pitcher of interest is Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been very efficient in two starts back from the IL (10 IP – 40 BF – 5 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 7 K). In fact, it’s starting to look like his strikeout spike last year was a fluke. Or, perhaps, it’s this year’s 16.4 K% is the fluke with a 12.1 SwStr%. The control has been elite (4.7 BB%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.1%). We should probably expect an increase in strikeout rate, potentially starting tonight with the Rays, whose projected lineup includes six batters above a 26 K% vs RHP.

One Top Arm is in a Favorable Spot Tonight

One a slate one game short of the full 15, Gerrit Cole tops the board at exactly $10K on DraftKings and $500 more on FanDuel with Zach Wheeler the only other pitcher reaching $10K tonight and is within $200 of that price on either site. In fact, Lucas Giolito and Freddy Peralta are the only other two pitchers above $9K on both sites too. In a four start span from mid-June (coincidentally) to early July, Cole had just a 22 K%. He has since proceeded to strike out 23 of 56 Astros and Red Sox over 15 innings of one run ball. There are no particular trends in his pitch usage that alters from previous outings and just a slight uptick in his slider spin rate. In fact, the only significant difference to be found is in opponent’s swing rates. The Red Sox and Astros took more pitches against Cole than most other teams have this year. It’s a bit befuddling without a deeper look. Estimators are all with a half a run of his 2.63 ERA with only his DRA (3.13) exceeding three. The Red Sox have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP and strike out an average amount, though the positive run environment is a bit of a draw back here. Cole still has the potential to be the top pitcher on any slate he’s on, but the best approach tonight is probably to play the ownership game and do whatever is the opposite of his projection.

After a two start stumble against the Dodgers and Nationals, it looked like Wheeler had gotten back on track against the Mets and Padres the next two times out, but he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) to the Cubs and Marlins since. The good news is that he’s struck out 13 of 53 with three walks, one home run and more than half his contact on the ground over this span and has had an exit velocity below 83 mph. Seems like some BABIP issues are afoot. A 30.6 K%, 84.6 mph EV and 11 starts of at least seven innings makes Wheeler one of the top pitchers in the league and a fine daily fantasy asset. The Braves have just a 99 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs RHP with most of the top half of last year’s dynamic lineup gone. In fact, just two batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a .311 wOBA against RHP this season. The drawback here, again, is the park and potentially the most hitter friendly umpire on the slate.

Giolito and Peralta face off against each other in a neutral run environment. Peralta’s 35.1 K% tops the board, while an 11.4 BB% hasn’t slowed him down too much with a 2.39 ERA and eight quality starts in his last 11. The .178 BABIP and 84.8 LOB% have helped with regression expecting something in the mid-threes and potentially shorter outings if he has to pay for the free passes, which may more quickly run up his pitch count. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 10.5 BB% vs RHP, which could present some problems here. They lose the DH In an NL park, but still project a potent lineup. It may not be the Cy Young caliber season White Sox fans were hoping for, but Giolito’s 3.90 ERA perfectly matches his 3.90 FIP with a 31.6 GB% and 15.3 HR/FB. The good news is that his contact profile spits out a 3.37 xERA, which is his best estimator with a strikeout rate a few inches south of 30% (29.2%). While the Brewers do have some power (14.6 HR/FB vs RHP), they also have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP and four of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 26 K% vs RHP this season. Considering the matchup, Giolito may be the top arm on the board tonight.

Affordable Bats in Highly Projected Offense

Through six starts, Eli Morgan’s major league numbers are much better than any of his minor league work or any scouting reports ever suggested…at least from the standpoint of his strikeout to walk ratio. He’s struck out a league average 23.5% of batters (11.1 SwStr%) with excellent control (4.2%). The 21.7 GB% with a 90 mph EV has been a problem, as he’s allowed nine home runs. To illustrate how volatile this profile is, he has a 4.27 SIERA, 4.77 xFIP and then his next best estimator is a 5.88 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. As a result, the Astros have the second highest implied run line on the board currently, at 5.22. Michael Brantley (175 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP this year) has been an integral part of this offense near the top of the lineup, which begs the question: why is he so cheap? Brantley costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, where he’s one of the top (if not the top) values on the board. He’s probably a strong value for $200 less on FanDuel as well. Another batter who remains surprisingly affordable on DraftKings is Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .250 ISO). Without much in the way of viable cheap pitching, players are probably going to have sacrifice some high priced offense tonight. It seems the left-handed portion of the Houston offense can help relieve that burden.

Lots of Fly Balls in a Dangerous Park

We don’t yet have an implied run line for either team at Yankee Stadium tonight because there are still plenty of uncertainties in this game, but one thing we do know is that Asher Wojachoo…Asher Wojaho…Asher is starting for the Yankees tonight and he has a career ground ball rate below 30%, while allowing a .394 wOBA to LHBs. We also know that Bryce Harper (154 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP this season) will be swinging for that short porch in right field tonight. Harper leads the projected lineup with a 167 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Another thing to know is that while RHBs have a much lower .339 wOBA against Asher, that’s still fairly strong and his ground ball rate is actually lower against RHBs, while he’s allowed just two fewer home runs in nine fewer PAs. That means that Rhys Hoskins (102 wRC+, .231 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (120 wRC+, .181 ISO) are certainly still in play to take him deep as well. When the line is finally released for this game, expect something around five runs for the Philadelphia side of things. A lot of traffic in the air at Yankee Stadium generally results in good things for the offense.

Results Against Same-Handed Batters Don't Bode Well For This Pitcher Tonight

A Tuesday night rain out will not allow Garrett Richards to escape the Blue Jays, but only offer a one game reprieve. The Blue Jays currently have the top implied run line on the slate by nearly a full run (6.17) because Richards has a 4.91 ERA that is at least confirmed by most estimators, but also a DRA and xERA exceeding six. A 7.2 K-BB% and 91.9 mph EV is not a combination that keeps you in the contending rotation for very long. Although the Toronto lineup is predominantly right-handed, that should not hinder them here. Same handed batters have smashed Richards this year (.388 wOBA, .383 xwOBA) and Danny Jansen is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year. You’re paying up for Toronto bats tonight, but Vladimir Guerrero (204 wRC+, .375 ISO vs RHP) is in an absolute smash spot here and the top overall bat on this board and it doesn’t even seem particularly close.

Six Extra-Base Hits in 18 PAs Against Struggling Pitcher

Michael Pineda was awful in three June starts before hitting the IL for a month. He returned to allow five runs to these White Sox over five innings, striking out five of 25 batters without a walk, but just a 6.1 SwStr%, 35 GB% and 91.1 mph EV. His velocity, which was trending downward in June, declined even further. For the season, Pineda’s 4.11 ERA is below all of his estimators. Considering the above, the White Sox are just one of three teams above five implied runs on tonight’s eight game slate (although games in Washington and New York have yet to be posted). While Pineda has actually struggled more against LHBs this year (.340 wOBA to .314), Statcast suggests that should be reversed (.319 xwOBA to .352). In that case, Tim Anderson (128 wRC+, .154 ISO) would be an ideal candidate for daily fantasy lineups and that’s backed up by the short history these two share. In 18 PAs against Pineda, Anderson has a .487 xwOBA with three home runs and three doubles. Despite the small sample size, we can’t ignore the damage Gavin Sheets is doing to RHP (181 wRC+, .432 ISO) and that he costs less than $3.3K on either site. Lastly, we’ll note that every batter in the currently projected lineup for home team is above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days.