DFS Alerts

Dylan Cease is

Should you be considering dipping below $9K for your pitching needs, Dylan Cease is your guy for exactly $8.6K on both sites. In fact, there could be an argument to be made that he’s the top pitcher on the board tonight or at least close to it, which would make him the top value. Cease may have a 4.55 ERA over his last five starts, but also a 31.9 K% and 23.5 K-BB% with just an 87.4 mph EV. That doesn’t sound like an exit velocity that might produce a 23.8 HR/FB over this span. For the season, his 4.14 ERA is a bit higher than estimators tightly ranging from a 3.67 FIP to a 3.94 xERA. Cease’s plate discipline rates are improved across the board on his Fangraphs page, which has helped him increase his K-BB% by nearly 50% over his career rate this year. The Twins do have a 101 wRC+ and 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP. This lineup is no pushover and Cease has allowed 11 runs (four home runs) in 16.1 innings against them this year, but that also includes a 20+ K-BB% that tracks nearly perfectly with his season mark. The matchup appears to be well priced into the cost already.

If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 partner on DraftKings, the choices are even less ideal that usual. Matt Manning has the prospect pedigree and a great matchup against the Rangers (11 wRC+, 27 K% since the break), but an 8.9 K% (5.5 SwStr%), 1.0 K-BB%, 91 Z-Contact% and 90.8 mph EV through five starts. Perhaps the pitcher opposing him may be a better choice for $6.6K. Jordan Lyles allowed four home runs last time out. It’s the second time he’s done that in the span of six outings. In between, he allowed one total and six runs over 25 innings. Overall, he can’t be very effective with a 34.5 GB% and 90.6 mph EV with just a 10.5 K-BB%. Most estimators confirm his 5.20 ERA, but the Tigers have a 91 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP, though they’ve decided to stop striking out since the break. The projected lineup still includes just two batters below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Ideally, players may wish to sacrifice some offense for a Cease/McCullers combo tonight.

One Top Arm in a Favorable Spot

On an eight game Wednesday night slate, your top of the board pitching includes four pitchers who exceed $9K on both sites and without a completely clear cut number one guy, a strong argument can be made for Lance McCullers Jr., the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and only one who reaches $10K on both sites. With a more slider heavy approach, he has rolled over his last four opponents to the tune of 33 strikeouts (105 BF) and just seven runs over 24.2 innings with 52.5% of his contact on the ground. An 11.9 BB% has been his biggest drawback this year and kept some of his estimators around four. The ground ball heavy contact profile though, has allowed him to generate just 6.2% Barrels/BBE on a 91.2 mph EV, good for a 3.46 xERA. With a .255 BABIP, 80.1 LOB% and 9.2 HR/FB, all estimators are quite a bit above his 2.80 ERA, but still on solid ground. In a neutral run environment, he faces a Cleveland offense with just an 88 wRC+ and board low 7.0 BB% vs RHP, which may help solve some of McCullers’ control issues tonight. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 30 K% vs RHP this year.

If Robbie Ray is slightly behind McCullers tonight, it’s simply due to the matchup. He is the only pitcher on the board exceeding a 30% strikeout rate (31.9%) and the fact that he’s done so with a 6.3 BB% has made him somewhat of a fringe Cy Young contender this year, though the contact profile still remains a significant issue (41 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 18.3 HR/FB, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). As one would suspect, a 3.81 FIP and 3.67 xERA are his worst estimators, though all are above three, a bit higher than a 2.93 ERA (90.7 LOB%). Buffalo is also a somewhat neutral run environment, but the Red Sox have a 105 wRC+ with just a 21.3 K% vs LHP. Ray is most expensive on FanDuel, but $200 behind McCullers on DraftKings.

Julio Urias is interesting for less than $10K. Although the end result is an above average 26.8 K%, Julio Urias’s strikeout totals have had a lot of variance from start to start and just how far he goes generally depends on how exceptional his control has been (5.3 BB%), enabling him to keep his pitch count down. A 3.78 ERA is within a quarter run of all of his estimators and only below his 3.80 DRA. The Giants have a 106 wRC+, 10.9 BB% and 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP. That’s not ideal. They strike out about an average amount against southpaws and Statcast Park Factors suggest that Dodger Stadium is now a somewhat neutral run environment as well. If Urias doesn’t walk anyone, he does have quality start potential (he has nine of them, but more than one walk in just two), which would make him a better value on FanDuel ($9.1K). Kyle Hendricks has the most negative run environment of the four in his favor in St Louis against an inferior offense (Cardinals 85 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but a combination of St Louis’s 21.9 K% vs RHP and his own sub-20 K% with estimators well above his ERA makes him overvalued above $9K.

Potential Smash Spot for Both Offenses Despite Neutral Run Environment

Two of the top four implied run lines coming out of the same game may not be much of a surprise when Coors is on the docket, but it may be a bit more unexpected that we’re talking about two offenses in a somewhat neutral run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors. Then again, the two starting pitchers in Buffalo are Garrett Richards and Thomas Hatch against two of the most potent offenses in baseball. Hatch is expected to make a spot start for the Blue Jays. He made one last year as well, along with 16 relief appearances. This will be his first major league action of this season after eight starts at AAA (14.2 K-BB%). At 26 already, he’s an older prospect, but this year’s scouting report on Fangraphs suggests back end of the rotation potential with multiple usable pitches. That may be somewhat respectable, but the Boston lineup is projected to include four batters above a 135 wRC+ vs RHP this year (Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo and Xander Bogaerts) and at the top of the lineup, we have Enrique Hernandez (163 wRC+ last 30 days) and Jarren Duran, who costs near the minimum and hit his first major league home run last night.

On the opposite side, Richards has a 4.91 ERA that is at least confirmed by most estimators, but also with a DRA and xERA exceeding six. A 7.2 K-BB% and 91.9 mph EV is not a combination that keeps you in the rotation for a contender for very long. Although the Toronto lineup is predominantly right-handed, even against right-handed starters, that should not hinder them here. RHBs have smashed Richards this year (.388 wOBA, .383 xwOBA) and there is not a batter in the projected lineup for the Blue Jays below a 97 wRC+ vs RHP this year. You’re paying up for Toronto bats tonight, but Vladimir Guerrero (204 wRC+, .375 ISO vs RHP) is in an absolute smash spot here.

Depleted Rotation & Exhausted Pen Should Add Up to Lots of Runs

The Mets may have pulled off a couple of amazing comebacks over the last two days, but make no mistake about it, the rotation is depleted and the bullpen is exhausted. So much so that Robert Stock will be starting tonight and we have no idea who is available behind him. It wasn’t a failing of the offense that cost the Reds the game last night, as they scored 11 runs in defeat and oddsmakers are expecting them to put up some offense again tonight with a 5.71 implied run line that’s third best on the board, even if Nick Castellanos is questionable again with a wrist injury. In one start for the Mets and also one for the Cubs against the Mets, Stock has struck out and walked eight each of 39 batters with just an 8.8 SwStr%. In four starts for the Mets at AAA, he also had just a 9.0 K-BB%, while most of his work with the Cubs at AAA came out of the bullpen. It really is a mystery how the Mets plan on covering innings tonight, as they have four relievers with at least 40 pitches thrown over the last three days, including their only lefty, Aaron Loup (41 pitches Sunday). Jesse Winker (171 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP this year) had a nice night last night and may once again be one of the top overall bats available and his price tag is down to $3.9K on DraftKings. Tyler Naquin (112 wRC+, .211 ISO) may be one of the top values for the near minimum in the middle of the order. Joey Votto (138 wRC+, .222 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel as well.

Are Oddsmakers Undervaluing This Lineup?

One of the favorite matchups for BvP truthers occurs when Dallas Keuchel faces off against the Twins, as he does tonight. That’s because he has to pitch to Nelson Cruz, who has homered six times in 64 PAs against him, which includes a .401 xwOBA and 93.8 mph EV. It’s not just the career matchup stats that makes Cruz a top play tonight either. There’s a picture of Cruz in any baseball almanac that tries to explain the concept of a lefty masher and that’s no different this year, as he’s smashed them for a 177 wRC+ and .243 ISO, while RHBs have a .327 wOBA, but .382 xwOBA against Kuechel in 2021 as well. It’s surprising to see the Twins at just 4.35 implied runs tonight, considering that Keuchel’s 4.25 ERA is below all of his estimators and he’s allowed nine runs in 12.2 innings against Minnesota this year. The Twins are also expected to have a healthy Josh Donaldson (177 wRC+, .243 ISO) and Mitch Garver (104 wRC+, .310 ISO) complementing Cruz from the right side tonight. This lineup can still do some damage against LHP and it’s possible oddsmakers are undervaluing them a bit tonight.

Attack the Worst Bullpen with a Lineup That's Been Better Than Perceived

There are only two bullpens in the major leagues that have an ERA above six and an xFIP and FIP above five over the last 30 days. Unfortunately, the Royals are off the board tonight, but there’s nothing stopping players from attacking the Arizona bullpen (6.35 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 5.32 xFIP) tonight though. Nothing except the Pittsburgh offense that is, but even this is not a lineup completely bereft of quality bats. An implied run line of 4.5 is middle of the board, so Pirate bats shouldn’t be high on the radar of most players and we don’t expect the entire lineup to do a ton of damage, but the top third to half has actually been good this year. In fact, among those projected to start tonight, the first six batters all have at least a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this year with Ben Gamel (117 wRC+, .202 ISO) perhaps the top value play on the board for just $2K. He, along with All-Stars Bryan Reynolds (140 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Adam Frazier (129 wRC+) all exceed a 130 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days. Starting for the Diamondbacks will be Taylor Widener. He has a 2.54 ERA that’s well more than two runs below even his best estimator (4.75 SIERA), due to a .223 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%. The contact profile behind a 30.9 GB% is a concern (90.4 mph EV, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) with only a 20.5 K%. While he has held batters from either side of the plate below a .315 wOBA this year, Statcast runs up LHBs to a .338 xwOBA and RHBs to a .386 mark. Additionally, Widener spent all of June on the IL and threw just 63 pitches in his return nearly two weeks ago, so we can expect to see a lot of the worst bullpen in baseball tonight.

Don't Let the Park Scare Your Off This Surging Pitcher

Tonight’s slate includes a few arms in the mid and low range that could be considered high upside for different reasons. After striking out 20 of his last 48 batters, German Marquez has now struck out exactly one-quarter of the batters he’s faced with 54.1% of his contact on the ground and just 3.4% Barrels/BBE. He has a 3.36 ERA without a single estimator reaching four. Furthermore, he has 13 quality starts in 19 tries and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four. The workload could potentially elevate his raw strikeout totals, while the ground balls have helped limit the damage at Coors. Seattle’s 90 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP doesn’t tell us enough with a high amount of turnover in that lineup, but they lose the DH tonight and four of eight projected exceed a 26 K% vs RHP this season. Don’t fear Coors, for $8.6K or less, Marquez may be one of the top values on the board in a strong spot.

Shane McClanahan’s 4.05 ERA is a bit above all of his estimators, due to 19.1 HR/FB, but even his FIP (3.80) and xERA (3.85) are below four. A 19.9 K-BB% and 15.9 SwStr% suggest he still has upside to come. Workload has been an issue for McClanahan, but he has exceeded 85 pitches in four of his last five starts and has had 11 days rest with the break. While the Orioles do have a 108 wRC+ and 22 K% vs LHP, the dome in Tampa Bay may be the most negative run environment on the board and McClanahan costs $8.6K or less on either site.

Dane Dunning has only completed six innings twice this season, so the workload isn’t ideal, but on a per batter basis, his rate stats are very strong. He’s struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.9%) with more than half his contact on the ground (53.8%). His 4.22 ERA is above all of his estimators (.361 BABIP), but only more than a half run above his xFIP (3.57) and FIP (3.35). The Detroit offense absolutely destroyed Kyle Gibson and the Texas pen last night, but still has just a 90 wRC+ and 26.4 K% vs RHP. Only two of nine projected batters are below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year. While the slighter workload limits him, Dunning costs just $6.7K on DraftKings, where he’d pair well with a higher priced arm.

High Upside Spots Available to Tuesday's Top Pitchers

Although we add two more games to the slate, the top of the board on Tuesday night looks very similar to what we thought it would look like on Monday. Yu Darvish (PPD) is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $11.2K on FD and even his DK price has risen $600 to $9.8K since yesterday. He must have had a good day off. Darvish was removed from his last game after just three innings (six runs, 17 batters faced, two strikeouts) with a hip impingement, resulting in a short IL trip with the minimum amount of time missed. The outing pushed his ERA up above three (3.09), still below all of his estimators, but only more than a half run below one (3.77 xFIP). Reduced velocity and a career low 33.5 GB% might be cause for concern, but a 24.1 K-BB% and 87.8 mph EV suggests it shouldn’t be too much. The larger issue is the weather forecast in Atlanta that currently suggests rain could be a problem, though that could change. Atlanta is also one of the more positive run environments in baseball, but should the weather hold up, this is a lineup that can be pitched to. The Braves have a 25.1 K% vs RHP with tonight’s projected lineup, but tonight’s projected lineup (which is last night’s confirmed lineup), includes just two batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

Trevor Rogers is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites and is, in fact, exactly that price on each site. He, too, must have had a good day off yesterday, as his cost has risen on each site. Striking out exactly 30% of the batters he’s faced, the worst estimator on the board for Rogers is a 3.54 SIERA, though contact profile including ones like FIP (5.9 HR/FB) and xERA (5.7% Barrels/BBE) will run lower. Half of his 18 starts have been quality starts and he has not allowed more than three runs in a start yet. While he travels to a positive run environment that may get a further weather boost in favor of hitters, the lineup that Rogers is projected to face shouldn’t scare anyone at all with names like Alcides Escobar, Jordy Mercer and Rene Rivera included.

Luis Garcia is the last $10K pitcher on the board. He is the most expensive DK arm ($10.4K), but third most costly on FanDuel ($9.6K). An unheralded hero of the Houston rotation, Garcia has struck out 28% of the batters he’s faced, allowing more than three earned runs for the first time this year two starts back. If you take his contact profile into consideration (6.9% Barrels/BBE, despite a 35.9 GB%), a 3.39 xERA is closest to his 3.06 ERA, but even his worst estimator, a 4.08 xFIP, is a bit better than league average. He faces a Cleveland offense with an 89 wRC+ vs RHP in a neutral run environment. One does not think of this lineup as strikeout prone and there are some small samples in here, but five of nine batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a 29 K% vs RHP this year.

While Garcia might possibly be the top pitcher on the board tonight, one other guy that might give him a run is Aaron Nola, who is $9.5K or less on either site. Nola has struck out 41 of his last 112 batters with a 13.9 SwStr%. He hasn’t pitched in two weeks after a trip to the COVID list, but that shouldn’t have a major effect on his workload. He does have a career low 40 GB% with a 14.4 HR/FB, but even his worst estimator (3.72 xERA) is well below his actual ERA (4.53), due to a .331 BABIP and 71.3 LOB%. When you have the Phillies defense behind you (-18 Outs Above Average), strikeouts are truly your best option and it seems Nola is learning that. One misconception about Yankee Stadium is that it is a hitter’s haven. Statcast actually suggests it’s been a negative run environment in recent years. There’s also the fact that the Yankee lineup is missing key bats, including Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela, due to COVID. Five of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP this year. Consider Aaron Nola a top pitching option, along with Luis Garcia tonight.

Better Against LHP Than Collective Numbers Suggest

Collectively, the Marlins have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league and even with a predominantly right-handed lineup, have just an 87 wRC+ vs LHP. However, when you look at the individual pieces in tonight’s projected lineup, there are some decent pieces. While Garrett Cooper (168 wRC+, .219 ISO) is the only batters above both a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year from the right side of the plate, Jesus Aguilar (118 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .240 ISO) have been threats as well, while Miguel Rojas (161 wRC+), Starling Marte (115 wRC+) and Jorge Alfaro (.191 ISO) have value too. Lest we forget the most important piece to this puzzle, Jon Lester has been lit up over his last four starts (13.1 IP – 82 BF – 7 K – 5.0 SwStr% – 11 BB – 25 R – 17 ER – 4 HR – 12.7% Barrels/BBE) and RHBs have a .421 wOBA (.370 xwOBA) against him this year. This game does not currently have an implied run line as neither team has officially named a starter yet, but it’s expected to be Trevor Rogers facing Jon Lester.

Double Digit Walk and Barrel Rates are Problems in this Park

The only redeeming statistic through nine major league starts for Vladimir Gutierrez is a 10 SwStr% that projects a somewhat higher strikeout rate than his current 16.5%, though even that’s a well below average mark in 2021. A 10.6 BB% and 10.8% Barrels/BBE are even bigger problems. A 4.77 xERA is the only estimator below five and still half a run above his actual ERA (4.29) with a .248 BABIP and 78.2 LOB%. While Gutierrez has held LHBs to a league average .312 wOBA, that gets bumped to a .331 xwOBA by Statcast, yet he still has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .341 wOBA, .349 xwOBA). Power has been down for Pete Alonso outside of home run derbies (120 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP this year), but a trip to Cincinnati might be just what he needs. His 137w RC+ over the last 30 days is eclipsed in this projected lineup only by J.D. Davis (310), who just returned from the IL and has a .378 wOBA against RHP since last year, and Brandon Nimmo (149), who is not hitting for a lot of power this year (.163 ISO vs RHP), but that hasn’t slowed down his overall production (140 wRC+ vs RHP). Along with the team they are opposing, the Mets are one of a handful of offenses atop the board around the 5.5 implied run mark that suggests there’s the potential for a lot of runs to be scored in Cincinnati tonight.

Tiring Pitcher with Declining Velocity and Large Platoon Split

An implied run line of just four and a quarter places the Texas offense right in the middle of tonight’s 22 team board, but there are several reasons that suggest this is a spot worth attacking tonight. Let’s first mention a few things about tonight’s opposing pitcher, Casey Mize. Although he is maintaining half his contact on the ground (50.5%), the strikeout rate is down to 17.4% (9.1 SwStr%) over his last five starts. At 95.1 innings pitched now, one has to wonder if he’s beginning to tire, having thrown less than 150 innings in the Detroit organization coming into this year since being drafted in 2018. A somewhat slow and steady velocity drop this year seems to support that idea. An 82.5 LOB% still creates the illusion of above average production, while his lowest estimator is now a 4.22 xFIP, his worst a 5.06 xERA. Now, perhaps the extended rest that the All-Star break affords allows Mize to return rejuvenated and pumping heat tonight. In that case, he still has to deal with a massive platoon split that has LHBs hitting for a .385 wOBA and 17 home runs in 255 career plate appearances against Mize. Lastly, although it’s a small sample, Weather Edge is calling for a significant offensive bump tonight, which could make Detroit a positive run environment tonight. In the middle of this lineup, players could get one of the top overall bats on the slate in Joey Gallo (149 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP this year), followed by one of the top values in Jonah Heim (86 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP this year, 107 wRC+ last 30 days overall) for less than $2.5K. Nate Lowe (117 wRC+, .164 ISO) also costs less than $2.5K on FanDuel and has a 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Visiting a Power Friendly Park with 17 HRs in 58.2 IP

The Cincinnati Reds are one of a handful of teams at the top of today’s board, hovering around five and a half implied runs and they have a chance to do some damage at home tonight against Jerad Eickhoff. Cincinnati may be the most power friendly environment in baseball and Eickhoff has been supplying some power as well this season. Over two starts and one relief appearance, comprising 12.2 innings, he has struck out just six (7.5%) and walked four of the 58 batters he’s faced, allowing six home runs on seven barrels (14.6%) with just 26.1% of his contact on the ground and a 92.6 mph EV. Eickhoff has a 15.6 K-BB% over 46 AAA innings, but with 11 more home runs allowed. That adds up to 17 home runs in just 58.2 innings this year. Should we mention which park he’s pitching in again tonight? For his career, Eickhoff has exactly a 100 point wOBA split. LHBs have a .377 wOBA with a 16.3 HR/FB against him since entering the league. Joey Votto (135 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this year), Tyler Naquin (107 wRC+, .211 ISO) and even Tucker Barnhart (114 wRC+, .133 ISO) all look good here, but even with a 49 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall, Jesse Winker (170 wRC+, .287 ISO) may be one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. From the right side, Jonathan India (116 wRC+, .146 ISO) still costs less than $3K on FanDuel and there may not be many circumstances under which Nick Castellanos (161 wRC+, .257 ISO) would not be playable at home (208 wRC+ at home this year).

Generally Lesser Offense Has Value Against Awful Bullpen Tonight

The Pittsburgh offense was clicking in their first series back from break at home against the Mets and now they travel to Arizona to face a much less accomplished pitching staff and even find themselves on the top half of the board at 4.61 implied runs. This is still unlikely enough to give the Pirates much exposure in daily fantasy lineup, despite that fact that they have some quality bats and are also facing the worst bullpen in baseball by ERA (6.70), xFIP (5.39) and SIERA (4.83) over the last 30 days. Caleb Smith’s first half ended when he faced 12 Dodgers in a single inning that included three walks and home runs allowed. In eight starts since being reinserted into the rotation, Smith has a 24.5 K%, but just an 8.2 SwStr% with a 12.5 BB% and 27.5 GB%. He’s allowed nine home runs over 38.1 innings in these starts. The top third of the projected Pittsburgh lineup (Adam Frazier, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds) all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year and all three are very much affordable with none higher than $4.3K on DraftKings or $3.1K on FanDuel. The Pirates may still be one of the lesser offenses in the league, but that’s through no fault of the top third of the lineup, who have performed like All-Stars this year.

High Upside Pitching is Hard to Find Tonight

Kyle Gibson is generally not considered a high upside pitcher and is not the most expensive pitcher on either site, but isn’t too far off (fourth or fifth most expensive) and it could be argued that he’s potentially the best arm available on tonight’s 11 game slate. Gibson allowed more than two runs for only the second time in 16 starts when these same Tigers got him for five last time out, but he’s also struck out 24 of his last 74 batters to push his strikeout rate up to 21.7% to go along with a 50.9 GB%. A 2.29 ERA is still more than a run below all estimators (.254 BABIP, 84.3 LOB%, 9.6 HR/FB), though those estimators range widely from a 3.39 xERA up to a 4.27 DRA. However, seven of nine projected starters from the Tigers have at least a 23.9 K% vs RHP this year with only three above a .160 ISO. Gibson has also recorded at least one sixth inning out in every start since opening day.

If you’re considering that Gibson doesn’t have enough upside for your taste, consider that more than half of tonight’s starting pitchers fall below a 20 K% this year. If we can’t have strikeouts, we’re secondarily looking for heavy workloads and run prevention. That means that guys like Cole Irvin and Zack Greinke could be viable tonight. Irvin’s not going to miss bats (17.6%) or keep the ball on the ground (36.9 GB%), but that’s okay in this park and he compliments with great control (4.3 BB%) that’s allowed him to generate quality starts in half of his 18 tries. He also has one of the better defenses in baseball behind him and that includes one of the top framing catchers in Sean Murphy. Irvin is within $200 of $8K on either site. While the strikeout rate (18.5%) keeps dropping, Greinke remains strong enough in other areas (5.0 BB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE) to remain effective, though a 3.99 ERA is the closest to his 3.59 ERA. He’s completed at least seven innings in nine of 19 starts and faces a Cleveland offense with just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP in a neutral run environment for less than $9K.

One more pitcher to talk about who may have high strikeout upside, but may be limited in workload is Tony Gonsolin, who is $8.2K on DraftKings. He is striking out batters at an even higher rate than last year (28.7%). The walk rate has jumped from 4% last year to 14% this year, though perhaps that’s improving with just two over his last 36 batters faced. Gonsolin also threw a season high 83 pitches last time out, so if the control is improving and the Dodgers are ready to allow him a larger workload, perhaps we’ll see the return of a pitcher who generated 1.8 fWAR in just 46.2 innings last year. The Giants have a 109 wRC+, but 25.3 K% vs RHP this year.

Drawbacks For Tonight's Most Expensive Arms

Three pitchers exceed $10K on FanDuel with only Kevin Gausman reaching exactly that mark on DraftKings. Yu Darvish is the most expensive FD pitcher ($11.2K), but is $800 less than Gusman on DK and there are some problems here. Darvish was removed from his last game after just three innings (six runs, 17 batters faced, two strikeouts) with a hip impingement, resulting in a short IL trip with the minimum amount of time missed. The outing pushed his ERA up above three (3.09), still below all of his estimators, but only more than a half run below one (3.77 xFIP). Reduced velocity and a career low 33.5 GB% might be cause for concern, but a 24.1 K-BB% and 87.8 mph EV suggests it shouldn’t be too much. The larger issue is the weather forecast in Atlanta that currently suggests rain could be a problem, though that could change. Atlanta is also one of the more positive run environments in baseball, but should the weather hold up, this is a lineup that can be pitched to. The Braves have a 25.1 K% vs RHP with tonight’s projected lineup including four of eight batters above a 27 K% vs RHP this year with only two below 23.8%.

Shohei Ohtani has a $1.5K discrepancy across the two sites. After his blow up against the Yankees, he concluded his first half pitching resume with seven innings of two run ball against the Red Sox, though he only struck out four. With a 30.7 K% (14 SwStr%) and 12.4 BB%, his 3.49 ERA runs within a half run of all of his estimators with only a 3.35 DRA falling below his actual ERA. Even with a positive weather boost that Weather Edge currently gives the park, Oakland is still one of the most negative run environments on the slate and the home team has been very average (101 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 12.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Ohtani certainly has the upside to be the top pitcher on any slate, but occasional control problems could below him as well. He’s likely over-priced on FanDuel at least.

Gausman has allowed more than two runs just once over his last 15 starts, but that came on the road against the Dodgers three starts back when he walked five with just four strikeouts over five innings, yet managed to escape with just three runs allowed. While the 1.73 ERA is still well below estimators (.212 BABIP, 84.7 LOB%, 7.5 HR/FB), Gausman has otherwise flourished with a 23.6 K-BB% and most estimators ranging in the lower threes. However, the contact profile (2.75 xERA) is more optimistic. The park has long been one of the more negative run environments in baseball, but more recently, Statcast Park Factors suggest Dodger Stadium is a more neutral run environment. The Dodgers have a 115 wRC+ and 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP. This is a tough spot, but Gausman may be the most viable of the high priced arms considering all factors and his consistency this year. While we shouldn’t expect a repeat of his previous effort against the Dodgers (Gausman was great in his other start at Dodger Stadium this year), they will be more patient than most teams.

One last pitcher worth mentioning, Trevor Rogers costs within $200 of $9.5K on either site in Washington tonight. Striking out exactly 30% of the batters he’s faced, the worst estimator on the board for Rogers is a 3.54 SIERA, though contact profile including ones like FIP (5.9 HR/FB) and xERA (5.7% Barrels/BBE) will run lower. Half of his 18 starts have been quality starts and he has not allowed more than three runs in a start yet. While he travels to a positive run environment that may get a further weather boost in favor of hitters, the lineup that Rogers is projected to face shouldn’t scare anyone at all with names like Alcides Escobar, Jordy Mercer and Rene Rivera included, though they may be a bit more contact prone than we’d like.