DFS Alerts

The Only Bullpen with All Estimators Above Five Over the Last 30 Days

While St Louis is not a positive run environment and the Twins appear to be dismantling their team, this may still be one of the more interesting offensive spots on the board, despite Minnesota being implied for just 4.25 runs. The primary reason for this being St Louis pitching. Although Wade LeBlanc has just a 3.27 ERA over five starts, he has struck out just 14 of 102 batters with estimators above five. The low ERA is the result of an 88.4 LOB%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. LeBlanc also generally goes through the lineup twice and then exits. This too, is problematic for the Cardinals because they are the only team in baseball whose bullpen exceeds a five ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. It could be batting practice for Minnesota bats all night long. The only question is, who will be left after the trade deadline? Josh Donaldson (147 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP in 2021) is one of those rumored to be on the block, but should he remain, he and Mitch Garver (108 wRC+, .328 ISO) would be the top bats here, the latter also a top value on FanDuel for just $2.7K. Jorge Polanco (104 wRC+, .204 ISO) should be another key piece for stacks, while Brent Rooker (236 wRC+ last 30 days) provides more salary relief and has been batting in the top half of the lineup against LHP recently.

Young West Coast Arms May Be Top Values on the Board

The two top strikeout rates on the board over the last 30 days don’t belong to pitchers at the high end of the board tonight, but rather a couple of up and coming west coast arms, who have really impressed this summer. Logan Gilbert and Patrick Sandoval may be two of the top values on the board tonight. Heck, they may even be two of the top overall arms available tonight and at a cost below $9K on either site. In fact, Sandoval costs exactly $8.8K on either site, while Gilbert shares that price tag on FanDuel, but is $1.6K less on DraftKings.

Gilbert was quickly pulled after allowing three runs to the A’s in his last start, despite striking out five of 15 batters with a single walk and no home runs. It’s been the rare blemish on his major league record that includes a 23.2 K-BB% that makes up for a 32.9 GB% with a 91 mph EV over 12 starts. Of course Seattle is a very forgiving park too. He’s not there tonight, but Texas also plays as a negative run environment when the roof is closed. Gilbert’s 3.81 ERA perfectly matches his xFIP. The Rangers have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and 54 wRC+ over the last seven days. They also just traded their most dangerous hitter. Tonight’s projected lineup includes five batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but also four below 17.5%. Regardless, it’s a very favorable spot for Gilbert with the chief concern being if the Mariners are going to start limiting his workload more often, but that shouldn’t be the case. He’s only at 61.2 total innings this year and has faced at least 23 batters in seven of his last nine starts.

Patrick Sandoval is breaking out. He came one out from a complete game one-hitter last time out, striking out 13 of the 30 Twins he faced and more than half his contact on the ground with an average exit velocity below 80 mph. Complete dominance! With a 27.9 K%, 16.3 SwStr%, 53.1 GB%, 85.7 mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE, he needs to be recognized. His 3.52 ERA is within half a run of all non-DRA estimators. While he did throw 108 pitches in chasing a no—hitter last time out, he’s gone over the century mark in four straight starts now and should not be effected here. He has a tougher matchup against an Oakland lineup that just added a big piece in Starling Marte, but he has a 27.1 K% vs LHP, one of three batters in the projected lineup above 27%. The matchup may not be ideal, but it’s manageable and Sandoval is simply too affordable for the production he’s been supplying.

One other pitcher to keep in mind for those looking for a cheap SP2 with upside on DraftKings is Touki Toussaint. Missing bats has not been the problem for Toussaint, so that fact that he’s struck out 15 of 51 with a 14.2 SwStr% is not a surprise, but the two walks is. The contact profile may still be an issue with an alarming 95.7 mph EV after two starts, but at least he has a 53.3 GB%. Last year, he combined the hard contact with a double digit walk rate and ground ball rate below 40%. The Brewers did add Eduardo Escobar and Atlanta is certainly a positive run environment, but Milwaukee is currently without Christian Yelich with the projected lineup including four batters at a 24.5 K% or higher vs RHP this year. Toussaint is a risky high upside arm for less than $7K on DraftKings. Daniel Lynch is a highly regarded arm coming off eight shutout innings of Detroit for just $5.2K tonight, but he only struck out four of 28 batters and has to face a loaded Blue Jays’ lineup in their return to Toronto tonight. You’re not going to find anyone close to Toussaint’s upside for less than $7K tonight.

Couple of Work Horses in High Upside Matchups

A full 15 gamer on Friday finds two pitchers clearing the $10K threshold on both sites and one more on FanDuel only. In a vacuum, Corbin Burnes is the top starter on the slate tonight. Maybe the strikeout rate has dropped a bit since Spin Rate Gate, but he’s still above 30% over the last month. He has a 50.4% ground ball rate with an 85.4 mph EV and has allowed just seven Barrels all season long. For the season, he has the top strikeout rate on the board by over seven points and over the last 30 days, only Logan Gilbert and Patrick Sandoval are higher. The Braves have an even 100 wRC+ with a 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP in a positive run environment. The team also has a 24.9 K% vs RHP this season, but only two batters in the projected lineup exceed that number tonight.

The other $10K pitcher on both sites is Lance Lynn and you’re paying for workload here. Lynn has four straight starts of at least six innings with exactly one run allowed. The 19.8 K-BB% projects estimators well above his 1.91 ERA this year (.245 BABIP, 87.1 LOB%, 8.3 HR/FB), but all of his estimators are below four and a large part of his value has been in being a workhorse, which is what he’s gotten back to in July, facing at least 24 batters in four straight starts for the first time this year. The Cleveland offense has just an 86 wRC+ against RHP, but an astounding five batters above a 32 K% vs RHP this season. This matchup could support Lynn going off. He’s had double digit strikeouts twice this season and nine three other times.

Kevin Gausman is $10.2K on FanDuel, but $800 less on DraftKings. He’s struggled lately and it’s not just against the Dodgers. The Pirates tagged him for six runs last time out as he walked twice as many as he struck out. Even with a couple of strong starts snuck in there against the Cardinals and Nationals, Gausman has a 25 K% and 15.2 BB% with just a 10.9 SwStr% over his last five starts, resulting in a 4.97 ERA with a FIP and xFIP above five. Still, for the season, a 3.55 SIERA is his highest estimator. The real problem here is a Houston offense with a 119 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP this year. True, they lose the DH, but the projected lineup includes only one batter above a 21 K% vs RHP this season.

The only other pitcher above $9K on both sites is Chris Bassitt, who seemingly does nothing great, but everything well enough or above average and pitches deep into games. He’s completed seven inning in nine of 21 starts, but has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last four starts. He still has a 3.46 ERA with a 4.04 DRA his lone estimator above four. On the road, in a positive run environment against the Angels (122 wRC+, 17 HR/FB at home), the lineup he’s projected to face does including seven batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this season. While Lynn and Bassitt appear to be in high upside matchups and Burnes provides his own upside, Gausman seems a significant risk in a lower upside matchup, but there may be even better bargains lower on the board tonight.

Malcolm Brown 2021 Fantasy Outlook

Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Malcolm Brown is expected to be the fantasy RB55. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB61 at pick 215, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 187 as of July. We currently expect 409 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 46) with a 23% share of team carries. We also expect a 1% target share which amounts to a projection of 9 targets (Rank 78) and 49 receiving yards (Rank 79).

Many people would be surprised to learn the kind of role Brown had with the Rams passing attack last season, mostly because he never converted it into fantasy production. He racked up just 162 yards and 5 drops (#6 overall among backs) despite 261 routes run and 33 snaps lined up in a slot position. Our projections paint a picture of Brown being used more like he was in his earlier Rams years, and with fewer snaps in the critical passing situations than he saw last season. This should lead to Gaskin maintaining a steady target share, and Brown being relegated to traditional backup level numbers. Unless the Dolphins tip their hand that he’ll be used more heavily than this and/or gets usage as the red zone/short yardage back he will be a weak play every fantasy format.

Every Batter in this Projected Lineup Above Average vs LHP

Patrick Corbin has fallen quite far. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 19 runs (17 earned) with just 12 strikeouts (11.8%). While his 5.71 ERA is above all of his estimators, it’s a near match for his 5.68 xERA. RHBs have a .369 wOBA (.371 xwOBA) against him this year and every single batter in the projected Philadelphia lineup tonight exceeds a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year. While there are seven teams with higher implied run lines, the Philadelphia offense is in a bit of a blow up spot here and with only a few expensive RHBs batters. Only J.T. Realmuto (117 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP this season) and Rhys Hoskins (140 wRC+, .294 ISO) are above $4K on DraftKings. They are joined by Andrew McCutchen (173 wRC+, .322 ISO) and Jean Segura (135 wRC+, .176 ISO) above $3K on FanDuel. There’s also the matter of the Washington pen, which the front office is looking to subtract from right now. Not only do they have a 6.33 ERA and 5.14 FIP over the last 30 days, but closer Brad Hand has pitched three days in a row and will likely not be available whether he’s still on the team or not tonight.

Bargain Bats May Be Hidden in Plain Site

Chi Chi Gonzalez (13.5 K%, 38.8 GB%, 90.2 mph EV) will be pitching to the premier LH power hitter in a park that is more power friendly to LHBs than Coors. Lest it need be said, Shohei Ohtani (177 wRC+, .392 ISO vs RHP this season) is your top bat on the board tonight, as batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Gonzalez this year, according to Baseball Savant. However, Ohtani costs $4.4K on FanDuel and a full $2K more on DraftKings and there are no great pitching bargains tonight. Where can a Daily Fantasy player find some bargain bats?

Luckily, there are a few. Ben Gamel (115 wRC+, .190 ISO) is projected to lead off against Adrian Houser, who has really struggled against LHBs (.348 wOBA, .344 xwOBA) and costs less than $2.5K on either site. Then, if we turn our attention to Kansas City, where the White Sox are the only team with a higher implied run line than the Angels, we find a couple of bargains in the top half of that projected lineup as well, potentially solving all of our salary cap problems, though also maybe creating some ownership ones. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Kris Bubic this season and the White Sox could stack the lineup entirely from that site. Eloy Jimenez has a .363 wOBA since starting his season this week, but his xwOBA is 54 points higher. Projected to bat cleanup, Jimenez costs within $300 of $3K on either site. Then there’s Andrew Vaughn, who has been smashing LHP in his rookie year (176 wRC+, .305 ISO) and costs less than $3K on either site.

Weather Not the Reason These Two Teams Are Expected to Score Lots of Runs

Zach Davies struck out a season high eight Diamondbacks last time out, though with just a 7.5 SwStr%, to bring his season strikeout rate up to 15.5%. An 8.8 HR/FB has allowed his ERA (4.30) and FIP (4.65) to beat additional estimators, though even with just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, his xERA (5.68) is highest among them. It’s fairly amazing what Davies has been able to accomplish, but considering that LHBs have batters from either side of the plate have at least a .325 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him, it can’t be expected to continue. There’s also the Chicago bullpen. A strength of the team early in the year, this unit has a 6.28 ERA and 6.21 FIP over the last 30 days, both worst in the majors, as it continues to be dismantled at the trade deadline. While weather isn’t expected to play a large part in the proceedings tonight, it won’t hurt either and all of these are reasons why the Cubs are one of five teams to reach five implied runs tonight. Aristides Aquino (146 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP this season) could be the value play in this lineup at less than $3K on either site. The red hot Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .305 ISO) and Jesse Winker (174 wRC+, .288 ISO) are top bats here.

Don’t sleep on the other side of this matchup either. The Cubs are also one of those five teams to reach five implied runs tonight. Tyler Mahle has allowed seven home runs over his last five starts and walked 15 of his last 98 batters faced. It’s been RHBs with a .367 wOBA (.339 xwOBA) against Mahle this season, while he’s shut down LHBs (.253 wOBA, .255 xwOBA), but Anthony Rizzo (98 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP this season) has had some success against him in the past (two home runs with a .411 xwOBA in 26 PAs). Kris Bryant (111 wRC+, .196 ISO) has caused Mahle even more pain (19 PAs, three home runs, two doubles, .422 xwOBA). Projected leadoff man Rafael Ortega (134 wRC+, .165 ISO) is still available for $2.5K or less on either site.

The best and most of the usable pitchers are near the top of the board tonight. It will be very difficult to avoid paying up for pitching tonight, but if you are absolutely adamant about finding middle of the board pitching there may only be a couple of realistic choices. Andrew Heaney has a 20.5 K-BB%, but with contact issues (33.3 GB%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), particularly against RH power. The Rockies don’t have much of that. A 4.44 DRA is his only estimator less than a full run below his 5.32 ERA, but his 15.2 HR/FB this season is exactly his career mark too. However, a .324 BABIP is 25 points higher and his 67.3 LOB% five points lower. He should be better even with the home run issues. He’s in a great run prevention spot here (Rockies 64 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB on the road), but it may be lacking the upside you’re looking for. Each of the first five batters in the projected lineup are below a 20 K% vs LHP this season. None the less, Heaney costs less than $8K on either site.

The Diamondbacks and Rangers feature a pair of bumbling offenses in a negative run environment if the roof is closed, but struck out a single Pirate (3.8 SwStr%) in his second start back off the IL and his velocity has been down in both. Jordan Lyles has allowed seven home runs over his last two starts and a 4.87 SIERA is his only estimator below five this year. Bumgarner costs an absurd $9.5K on DraftKings, but is $3.1K less on FanDuel against an offense with an 84 wRC+ vs LHP and a projected lineup including five batters above a 25 K% vs LHP. Lyles is just $6K on DraftKings, while the Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ vs RHP. These pitchers are very hard to trust though.

Tylor Megill is also $9.2K on DraftKings, but $1K less on FanDuel. Lacking any significant prospect hype, all he’s done is strike out 27% through six starts with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.1%), allowing just 2.6% Barrels/BBE, although that last one may not be entirely sustainable. Aside from a 2.16 xERA that nearly matches his 2.10 ERA, remaining estimators are mostly in the mid-threes. The projected Atlanta lineup doesn’t strike out a ton (average 22.1% via Plate IQ), but also seems navigable with only three batters above a .320 wOBA vs RHP this year. DraftKings is making it very tough to save money on pitching tonight though.

Potential Cy Young Winner May Be Tonight's Top Arm

Oddly, DraftKings is the site with more $10K pitchers tonight (three to two) with both Walker Buehler and Zack Wheeler reaching that price on both sites. The 26.4 K% isn’t elite, but it’s above average and the 5.8 BB% nearly is elite, while Buehler has failed to produce a quality start in just three outings this season. That said, his 2.31 ERA is well below estimators (.234 BABIP, 82.7 LOB%), though the worst of them is a 3.64 SIERA. The Giants have a 110 wRC+ and 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 25.7 K%, though only one batter in tonight’s projected lineup reaches that mark. You’re going to get length out of Buehler, but for $11.5K on FanDuel and even $10K on DraftKings, the value return might be marginal.

The longer Jacob deGrom remains out, the closer Wheeler comes to a Cy Young. Among those with more than a few starts, he tops the board with a 30.4 K%, to which he adds a 5.7 BB% with nearly half his contact on the ground (49.7%) and an 84.5 mph EV (4.2% Barrels/BBE). He’s completed seven innings in 12 of 20 starts and his 3.07 SIERA is the only estimator above three. He has to weather a positive run environment, but has been negotiating that park in Philly all year. The Nationals have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and will be without Trea Turner tonight. At a lesser cost, Wheeler is the superior value tonight and potentially the top overall arm.

The last $10K pitcher on DraftKings is a bit mind blowing as Tyler Mahle costs $2.9K less on FanDuel, where his superior strikeout rate (29.2%) might still afford him some value, despite recent struggles. Mentioned in a recent New York Times article as one of the pitchers most effected by the new sticky substance rules, Mahle hasn’t felt it in his strikeout rate that much, which still remains above a quarter of batters faced over the last month, but he has allowed seven home runs over his last five starts and walked 15 of his last 98 batters faced. On the season, a 4.02 FIP is his only estimator above a 3.92 ERA, though none are more than one-third of a run below. While the weather seems hitter friendly at Wrigley tonight, Weather Edge suggests it may not be a significant factor (though that could change). The Cubs have just an 88 wRC+ and 26.5 K% vs RHP, plus who knows who’ll still be with the team tonight.

Two more pitchers worth mentioning are Anthony DeSclafani, who is a bit below $9K on either site and Lucas Giolito, who’s above $9K on both. Eighteen of Anthony DeSclafani’s 39 runs allowed have been surrendered to the Dodgers, though his most recent outing was a quality start against them with seven strikeouts. But this will be the fifth time he’s faced them over a 12 start span, which has to give some advantage to the offense. DeSclafani has otherwise been a very productive pitcher with a 17.1 K-BB% and not a single estimator reaching four, although all are well above his 2.87 ERA (.239 BABIP, 80.7 LOB%). He’s a reasonable GPP leverage play against a lineup that doesn’t seem to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Giolito has suffered from inconsistency. He just followed up a three hit, eight strikeout complete game against the Astros by walking more Brewers than he struck out (five to three). The overall numbers are very good, if not great. A 20.3 K-BB% has generated estimators fairly close to his 3.78 ERA with a 4.23 DRA and 3.41 xERA being exceptions. He’s certainly GPP worthy in Kansas City (88 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP) where the projected lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP this year.

One K in Last 44 Batters Faced & Terrible Pitching Conditions Tonight

While one Vladimir may be the top bat on the board, another one may be unintentionally providing much more offense. That’s Vladimir Gutierrez, who loses the Wrigley weather lottery tonight with near 90 degree temperatures and a double digit wind blowing out to right-center field tonight. To be honest though, it’s not like major league life was ever going really well for Vladimir Gutierrez, but recently, it’s gotten even worse. He’s struck out just one of his last 44 batters with four walks and three home runs. He’s now allowed 11 home runs in 10 starts and while occasionally getting outside Cincinnati should help (though not the case tonight), he’s still allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE. However, his xERA (4.88) is the only estimator below his 4.97 ERA with just a 5.0 K-BB%. While LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330, it’s actually RHBs that have done most the damage (.368 wOBA, .341 xwOBA). Patrick Wisdom (136 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP in 2021), Kris Bryant (108 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Willson Contreras (105 wRC+, .175 ISO), though LHB Rafael Ortega (126 wRC+, .158 ISO) could provide the most value in the lineup with the second highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.74) for less than $2.5K on either site.

Don’t sleep on the Cincinnati lineup in this spot either. Adbert Alzolay has allowed multiple homers in five of his last six starts and LHBs have a .405 wOBA (.396 xwOBA) against him this season. Unfortunately, the lineup only projects three of them for the Reds, but Joey Votto (154 wRC+, .275 ISO), Jesse Winker (173 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (102 wRC+, .198 ISO) should all play well here, even with the Reds implied for just 4.26 runs.

Weather May Be the Only Thing Stopping These Offenses

The game at Fenway does carry some weather related risk, but should it go off, it features not only the top offense on the board (Blue Jays 5.81 implied runs), but also one of the other six offenses above five implied runs. If the game does end up going off without a hitch or even just a delay, it features one of the more positive run environments in baseball with potential weather effects that could make it play like Coors, along with a hitter friendly umpire. While Robbie Ray has solved his control issues this year, problems in his contact profile still exist (91.3 mph EV, 10.3% Barrels/BBE) and the Red Sox homered three times against him last time out. Enrique Hernandez (129 wRC+, .271 ISO vs LHP this year) may be sending a limo to make sure Ray gets to the ballpark on time. He’s homered five times with four more extra-base hits in 55 career PAs against Ray, against whom RHBs have a league average .311 wOBA. Hunter Renfroe (141 wRC+, .202 ISO) is the value in this lineup, costing just $3.2K on DraftKings.

The Toronto lineup has the higher expectations in this matchup and that’s because RHBs have a .385 wOBA (.372 xwOBA) against Garrett Richards this year and this lineup is stacked with RH thump, who hit same-handed pitching well. While it took the Blue Jays a while to get to Richards in his last start, they got there eventually with three home runs. MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero (203 wRC+. 368 ISO vs RHP this year) leads the projected lineup with a 153 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is the top bat on the board tonight. George Spinger (141 wRC+. 329 ISO) isn’t too far behind. Unfortunately, there aren’t many cheapies in this lineup, but players can still get there with some great value in the middle of the board in terms of pitching tonight.

A Combination of Hitter Friendly Factors Foreshadow an Offensive Explosion

After last night’s performance, it’s probably no surprise that the Washington bullpen has the highest ERA in baseball over the last 30 days (6.42) and is tied for the second highest FIP (5.14). In fact, they are the only team above a six ERA over this span and the second worst bullpen by that metric belongs to the team they are facing (5.97 ERA). The Philadelphia bullpen also has a 4.97 FIP. Add in two back of the rotation starters and some hitter friendly weather in one of the most power friendly parks in baseball and you have a recipe for lots of runs. Oddsmakers agree, as the Nationals and Phillies are two of seven teams currently above five implied runs tonight. The home team will face Erick Fedde, who has struck out just 15 of 102 batters over his last five starts. He’s also walked 12 and while half his contact has been on the ground this year, the K-BB gap is narrowing (9.6%). His 4.88 ERA may be above all of his estimators (67.9 LOB%), but not by much. While Fedde has a sizeable split (LHBs .339 wOBA, .348 xwOBA), Statcast brings RHBs up to a league average .316 xwOBA against him as well. Most of the lineup is playable in this spot with Bryce Harper (152 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP in 2021) being one of the most desirable bats on the slate. In addition to poor performance, the Washington bullpen has been worked hard with Brad Hand, Daniel Hudson and Kyle Finnegan all coming off consecutive days of work.

On the opposite side of this matchup, Matt Moore has struck out just 20 of his last 104 batters and nine of those came in one start. The combination of an 8.8 K-BB% and 9.6% Barrels/BBE on the season generates estimators that are all below his 5.79 ERA, but not by much. None are below five. The Nationals hit LHP well, particularly Trea Turner (191 wRC+, .260 ISO), who has an overall 181 wRC+ over the last month. RHBs have a .405 wOBA against Moore this season and while Statcast drops that down to a .341 xwOBA, it’s not like that’s actually good. Statcast actually sees LHBs as more of a threat (.350 xwOBA), which makes Juan Soto (119 wRC+, .232 ISO), who has a 200 wRC+ over the last 30 days one of the top bats on the board as well. Ryan Zimmerman (133 wRC+, .273 ISO) costs just $3.1K on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel.

Lots of Value Among Mid-Range Pitching Options

While a full, 15 game slate is a bit light on high end pitching, the board is somewhat loaded with capable mid-range arms, starting with Charlie Morton, who has seven straight starts of at least seven strikeouts (30.7 K%, 13.7 SwStr%), missing as many quality starts by a single run and two outs. For the season, his 3.65 ERA is less than one-quarter of a run removed from any of his estimators. The Mets have a 95 wRC+ vs RHP, but have been a bit better since the lineup returned to nearly full health and don’t strike out a ton. While Citi Field is generally one of the more negative run environments in baseball, the weather could make it play more neutrally tonight. Morton may not have much value at nearly $10K on DraftKings, but costs only $8.6K on FanDuel.

While Dylan Cease has just one quality start and a 5.49 ERA over his last eight starts, he’s done this with a 21.4 K-BB% that’s higher than his season rate, but stranded 66.9% of runners with a 19.5 HR/FB and 13% Barrels/BBE. However, for the season, he doesn’t have a single estimator above four, including a 3.89 xERA and 3.72 FIP. If fact, all of his estimators are tightly packed between that FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. In a power suppressing park in Kansas City, he faces an offense with just an 89 wRC+ and 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP this season. At $8.6K or less, Cease may be undervalued.

The matchup in Tampa Bay brings us two interesting pitchers in a negative run environment. Jordan Montgomery did not allow a run in his last outing at Fenway (5.2 IP – 3 H – 1 BB – 6 K). It was the first time he’d done that since May. In fact, he had allowed exactly three runs in his three previous starts. He misses more than enough bats (24.3 K%, 13.2 SwStr%) to be a quality starter with good control (7.2 BB%) and an average contact profile. As such, his 3.96 ERA is well within a half run of all of his non-DRA estimators. While the addition of Nelson Cruz has significantly improved the outlook of this lineup against LHP, there are still six batters in the projected Tampa Bay lineup above a 23.5 K% vs LHP this year. Alternatively, Shane McClanahan has been given a bit more rope, facing at least 21 batters in four of his last five starts and has shown elite swing and miss stuff so far (16.3 SwStr%), which makes even a 28.6 K% potentially improved upon. His 3.88 ERA perfectly matches his DRA, but is slightly above all additional estimators. The projected Yankee lineup is still missing key RH bats, but may include six batters above a 24 K% vs LHP this year. McClanahan is within $300 of $9K on either site, but Montgomery is significantly less and is a great SP2 option on DraftKings for just $6.7K.

Kenta Maeda’s velocity is still down and the surface results aren’t great (6 ER last 12 IP), but he does have a 36 K% (31.4 K-BB%) and 84.8 mph EV over his last four starts. His 4.63 ERA is at least half a run above all non-DRA estimators (.321 BABIP, 68.7 LOB%). Maeda also gets a pitcher friendly umpire at home against a Detroit offense with a 93 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP. Six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP. For less than $8.5K on either site, Maeda may be one of the top pitching values on the board.

Clear Top of the Board Pitching Choice

Ironically, a rare full 15 game slate finds only two pitchers hitting the $10K mark, but both do so on both DraftKings and Fanduel. However, no other pitcher reaches even $9K on both of the sites. Lance McCullers is tonight’s top pitcher and most expensive pitcher, though also probably a solid value in Seattle. Despite last night’s offensive fireworks, it’s one of the most negative run environments in baseball. The bad news is that McCullers’ velocity has been on a steady down slope. The good news is that it doesn’t really matter because he’s barely throwing his fastball one-third of the time. He’s struck out at least eight in four straight starts to push his season rate up to 27.8% with a 54.4 GB% that’s allowed him to generate just 5.7% Barrels/BBE, despite a 90.8 mph EV. Thus, a 3.24 xERA is his lowest estimator an along with his 3.34 FIP, the only estimators within half a run of his 3.04 ERA. The Mariners have a 91 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP, but since the lineup has had quite a bit of turnover, we can also note that tonight’s projected lineup includes four batters above a 29 K% vs RHP this year.

The Red Sox broke up a string of five straight quality starts with at least six strikeouts for Robbie Ray, when they homered three times against him last time out. While he’s solved his control issues (6.2 BB%), retaining an elite strikeout rate (31.3%), contact profile issues still persist (91.3 mph EV, 10.3% Barrels/BBE), so these kind of things are going to happen occasionally still. His 3.12 ERA is below all of his estimators, but nearly matches a 3.18 SIERA. Including the contact profile brings him up nearly half a run (3.59 xERA) and including just the home run profile generates his only estimator above four (4.06 FIP). Ray faces a number of issues tonight though, the first of which is a rematch with a Boston offense with a 104 wRC+ and 21.4 K% vs LHP. The second is the park downgrade at Fenway with weather conditions that could potentially make it play like Coors, according to Weather Edge with a hitter friendly umpiring situation as well, if it even gets played. That’s because Kevin currently has this game as the only one on the slate in danger of interruption by rain. Ray may be too big a risk tonight. If you’re planning on paying a premium for pitching tonight, McCullers is the better choice.

Conditions Could Make This Park Play Similarly to Coors Tonight

While Coors itself may not be on the slate tonight, conditions may such that Fenway Park, an already fairly positive run environment, may play like Coors tonight. Weather Edge currently gives the park in Boston a significant weather boost, which would easily make it the most hitter friendly spot on the board, by far tonight. Partially because they recognize this, oddsmakers have granted both teams two of the three implied run lines above five tonight with the home team topping the board by more than half a run at 5.93. The Red Sox will be facing a bit of an unknown tonight. The Blue Jays haven’t even confirmed their starting pitcher tonight, but it’s expected to be Thomas Hatch, making his season debut. Hatch pitched 24 innings in relief for the Blue Jays last year and 2.1 innings in his lone start with a 9.2 K-BB% and league average ground ball rate. Over eight AAA starts this year (29.1 IP), he’s struck out 24.2% (12.5 SwStr%) with an even 10% walk rate. The 26 year-old is currently the 10th best prospect in the organization, according to Fangraphs, who project him as a potential back end rotation piece. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for Boston exceed a .190 ISO vs RHP this year with Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo and Xander Bogaerts above a 130 wRC+ as well. Verdugo costs $3.5K or less on either site.

On the other side, Nick Pivetta’s strikeout rate is down to 23.5% with a 9.4 SwStr% over his last five starts. His 4.37 ERA is nearly perfectly aligned (within one-fifth of a run) of all of his estimators, except for a 3.98 xERA, which actually likes his seemingly league average contact profile (89.8 mph EV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE). Somewhat unfortunately for him, his wOBA is 10 points worse against same-handed batters this year (.327 to .317), though Statcast reverses that trend (.292 xwOBA for RHBs, .327 for LHBs). However, the environment makes it all playable tonight. Vladimir Guerrero’s thorough destruction of RHP this year (203 wRC+. 374 ISO) might make him the top value in the lineup even at an enormous price tag, but nobody in the projected starting nine for Blue Jays runs below a 92 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP this year.