DFS Alerts

Top Projected Offense May Include Plenty of Value

A top pitching prospect, Matt Manning wasn’t exactly dominating AAA with a 25 K% through seven starts before being called up, but an 18.1 K-BB% was more than respectable. We can’t say nearly the same about his major league work, as he’s struck out just six of 81 (4.5 SwStr%) with five walks and three home runs. Despite a 91.3 mph EV and league average 44.9 GB%, he’s generated just 4.3% Barrels/BBE, though estimators mostly in the upper fives are still below his 7.94 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate have smashed him above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA so far, the potential beneficiaries of these events tonight being the Minnesota Twins, who have the highest implied run line on the board at 5.85. Finding two of the potential top values on the slate in the top projected offense is a bit of a surprise, but Luis Arraez (119 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020) and Trevor Larnach (145 wRC+, .197 ISO) both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKIngs and $2.6K or less on FanDuel, making it very easy to stack the top offense on the board, add some high upside pitching and still have plenty left over for a secondary stack.

Cheap Bats in a Great Spot

Considering the state of pitching tonight, with few high priced pitchers and nobody that feels absolutely necessary to pay up for, there may not be much of a need for cheap bats, but one place players may be able to find lots of offensive value is in Baltimore, where Dallas Keuchel gets the start against the Orioles. Keuchel is still generating tons of weak ground balls (86.9 mph EV, 56 GB%), yet still a league average 8.6% Barrels/BBE and very few strikeouts (14.1%), which means a good time can still be had by opposing offenses against him. In fact, aside from a 4.37 xFIP, he doesn’t have another estimator below 4.70. The Orioles are projected to stack the lineup entirely right handed against him and while batters from that side of the plate have just a .300 actual wOBA against him since last season, Statcast boost that up to a .357 xwOBA. The situation is that we have an offense with a 112 wRC+ vs LHP in a hitter friendly park without a projected starter above $3K on FanDuel (and just one above $3.4K on DraftKIngs). Oddsmakers seem to understand what’s up because the Orioles are at 4.89 implied runs, the eighth highest total on the board tonight. Austin Hays (156 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP since 2020) costs less than $3K on either site, while Trey Mancini (147 wRC+, .282 ISO) is the only player on either site exceeding $3.4K. Cedric Mullins (113 wRC+, .181 ISO) has a 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days and seems far too cheap in this spot. Also, keep in mind that while the bullpen was expected to be a strength of the White Sox this year, the unit has struggled to a 4.79 ERA and 5.01 FIP over the last 30 days.

Expect These Bats to Remain Hot in a Smash Spot

Over his last five starts, Garrett Richards has just a 9.5 K% and just one fewer walk than his 11 stirkeouts. His best estimator is a 4.86 xFIP that fits perfectly with his ERA (4.88), though even that may be a bit optimistic with a 91.8 mph EV. It seems a bit risky that a contending team would keep sending him out there, but they may not have a choice until Chris Sale is back. None the less, the beneficiaries of the current situation is a Philadelphia offense that simply mauled Cubs’ pitching at Wrigley this week and now they even get a park upgrade at Fenway tonight. Considering that LHBs have a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Richards since last season, Bryce Harper (152 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2020) may be the top overall bat on the board. After dealing with lingering injuries through May and June, he seems to be back on track with a 148 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In fact, among projected starters, only J.T. Realmuto and Odubel Herrera are below a 100 wRC+ over the last month for the Phillies and considering that RHBs are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Richard too since last year, this is a great stacking situation. The Phillies are one of seven teams above five implied runs tonight (5.26), where we can expect this week’s offensive onslaught to continue.

Worst Bullpen in Baseball Could See a Lot of Work Tonight

The Arizona bullpen has the most atrocious in the majors over the last 30 days by virtue of a 6.45 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 5.32 xIFP and 4.88 SIERA. While it is being speculated that Taylor Widener may get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight, we’ll likely see a lot of that bullpen no matter who it is against the Dodgers. With a 5.41 implied run line, the Dodgers are currently the fifth highest ranked team on the board, which says quite a bit, considering that Dodger Stadium is known as a negative run environment. While Widener has a “wide” split since last season, Statcast informs us that batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .355 xwOBA, narrowing the gap significantly. This makes a generally well balanced Dodger lineup very stackable tonight with Will Smith (163 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2020) potentially a top value. He costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Justin Turner (148 wRC+, .158 ISO) costs just $3K on FD and has been crushing the ball over the last 30 days (199 wRC+). Regardless who the Diamondbacks throw out there, the Dodgers should be able to handle them.

Mid-Range Pitchers Are Volatile, But Not Without Upside Tonight

A great argument can be made for not paying up for the most expensive pitchers tonight. In fact, that may even be the best play for those willing to embrace some risk because it’s not so much that upside is lacking in a lot of these arms, but volatility seems to reign supreme. Among some of the more interesting pitchers who have ERAs exceeding their estimators by quite a bit are Alex Cobb, J.T. Brubaker, Kenta Maeda and Shane McClanahan. On a start by start basis, Cobb has been very volatile, including his peripherals, but the overall package has been a 27.3 K%, 58.4 GB% and 4.3% Barrels/BBE that far outpace a 4.60 ERA (.331 BABIP, 57.7 LOB%), although a 3.83 xERA is his worst estimator by more than half a run. He’s nearly $10K on DraftKings ($9.8K), but a full $1K less on FanDuel in a matchup in Seattle (89 wRC+, 26.2 K%), one of the most negative run environments in baseball.

Brubaker was rained out last night, but also faces a below average offense (90 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs RHP), but the Mets’ lineup is more complete than it’s been at any point since early April. An 18.2 HR/FB has been a problem for Brubaker this year, but with 16 balls leaving the park and only 20 Barrels (8.2%), which includes an above average ground ball rate (47.7%) and average exit velocity (88.3 mph), there could be some positive regression there. However, his 4.09 ERA may not be effected much because an 80.4 LOB% and .268 BABIP could regress slightly the other way. The 18 K-BB% is above average and a strong value for $7.5K or less.

Maeda struck out 10 of 21 Royals over six shutout innings with a single walk and increased velocity in his last start, but that he still has an ERA above five without a single estimator below four suggests that he still has more to prove. If finally healthy though, what a great spot against the Tigers (91 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP) at home for just over $7K and what better slate to take this kind of a risk? With a 20.5 HR/FB, McClanahan has a 4.18 ERA that’s well above all of his estimators, with a 3.87 FIP, naturally, the closest fit. He’s struck out 28.3% of the batters he’s faced with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.6%). This certainly sounds like a pitcher you want in your lineups on a volatile slate, but in his case, the issue is matchup. The Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+, 22.2 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs LHP. Still, in a negative run environment with such a live arm for less than $8K, you might be willing to take the risk.

One other pitcher, who’s ERA is below estimators, but is worth mentioning is Zach Thompson. After coming out of nowhere to strike out 21 of the 69 batters he faced at AAA this season, all in relief, Thompson was quickly thrust into the major league rotation and has responded with a 32 K% (14.8 SwStr%) over five starts. his worst estimators a 3.56 xFIP and DRA. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ and 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP, but transition from Atlanta to a negative run environment in Atlanta and also have a 25.1 K% vs RHP, while Thompson costs only costs $6.9K on DraftKings. With Thompson and Alek Manoah, players could get a combined strikeout rate above 60% for less than $14K.

On a 14 game slate, it’s a bit of a surprise that no pitcher reaches the $10K price point on both sites tonight, although two do so on FanDuel along with one on DraftKings. The most expensive pitcher on FanDuel is Alek Manoah ($10.3K). He set career highs with seven innings pitched and 10 strikeouts last time out against the Rays and will now be facing them for the second straight start after being rained out against the Orioles on Thursday. With a 21.0 K-BB% through seven starts, he has a 3.64 ERA and 3.42 that are more than a half run above his 2.70 ERA (.214 BABIP, 89 LOB%), while additional estimators creep above four. The price hike seems like too much, too soon, but with seven of nine in the projected Tampa Bay lineup exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP, he does have the highest upside matchup on the board in a negative run environment and could repeat his previous feat. A large discrepancy in price on DraftKings, where Manoah is just $7K, would be the much better value, of course.

Costing exactly $10K on FanDuel and perhaps more deserving on the merit of his total body of work would be Charlie Morton, who has a 3.91 ERA that’s above all of estimators, but only by more than a half run of his DRA (3.20). Somehow, a 19.6 K-BB%, 47.2 GB% and 5.5% Barrels/BBE sounds like it deserves better. He, too, is in a great spot in Miami (91 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP. He, perhaps, has the higher floor and may be the better value. Morton’s price differs by just $400 on DraftKings.

The only pitcher to reach $10K on DraftKings, where he is exactly that price, is…Jake Odorizzi? How to even speculate about this. He has struck out three or fewer in three of his last four starts, mixed in with a nine punch out effort against the Orioles. In nine starts, only a 5.00 DRA is more than a half run removed from his 3.70 ERA, but only a 3.68 FIP is lower. He’s generally been very hit or miss and his last start is the first time he’s faced more than 20 batters this year with a season high 91 pitches. The Yankees have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP with a 25 K%, but this price tag is still head scratching.

This is a very difficult pitching board. There is no clear cut top pitcher and while three pitchers exceed a 30 K%, two of them do so in just a handful of starts, while the third exceeded a 20% walk rate and was shipped out to the minors in May. Those looking for relative safety are probably going to be most confident in Morton’s floor, though Manoah’s upside is certainly a factor, as he’s a great play on DraftKings for just $7K in any type of game.

Dipping Velocity & Strikeouts May Indicate Tiring

You may be skeptical of Minnesota’s 4.96 implied run line that places them second on tonight’s board. After all, Tarik Skubal has improved greatly since a rough April and Minnesota is a negative run environment according to Statcast Park Factors. However, there are several factors favoring the Minnesota offense, including that Weather Edge currently gives the park one of the largest boosts on the slate in terms of overall run environment and power potential. There’s also the fact that while Skubal has increased his strikeout rate significantly since the end of April, he still has a 33.3 GB%, 17.5 HR/FB, 91 mph EV and 12.7% Barrels/BBE on the season, while the velocity has dipped in two of his last three starts. In those two starts, Skubal has strikeout totals of just four and six, his second and third lowest totals since April. He’s up over 80 innings after the shortened season last year and just 120 the year before, so this could be somewhat of a dead arm period for him, not being used to a normal full season workload expected from a major league starting pitcher. Should the Tigers look to shorten his workload and hit the pen early, Gregory Soto threw 32 pitches yesterday and may not be available and the Detroit bullpen has struggled as a unit since Michael Fulmer hit the IL. Over the last 30 days, they have a group 5.09 ERA and 4.57 xFIP. While the Twins are missing key right-handed power bats, Nelson Cruz (223 wRC+, .316 ISO vs LHP since 2020) is always the guy we want against southpaws and he’s expected to be in there tonight. Ryan Jeffers (163 wRC+, .237 ISO) is your value bat, costing just $2.1K on FanDuel and less than $3.5K on DraftKings. RHBs have a .358 wOBA (.348 xwOBA) against Tarik Skubal in his career.

Five Home Runs in 16 PAs Against Tonight's Pitcher

Jesse Winker is probably a guy a lot of players are going to have in their lineup without even looking at the BvP numbers. It’s simply a great matchup. Winker has a 172 wRC+ and .311 ISO against RHP since last season and Adrian Houser has a massive platoon split over the same time span (LHBs .382 wOBA, .360 xwOBA). These numbers make most LHBs projected to be in the lineup for the Reds reasonable plays, including Tyler Naquin (106 wRC+, .214 ISO) for just $3K and Joey Votto (133 wRC+, .246 ISO) a bit more expensively. However, just in case you needed slightly more convincing, Winker has faced Houser 16 times and while that’s a small sample, it actually makes the results even more impressive. Winker has nine hits against Houser with a 96.3 mph EV. Four of those hits have been singles. The remaining five have left the yard. Jesse Winker has homered five times against Adrian Houser in 16 PAs. That certainly doesn’t guarantee Winker will leave the yard tonight. The Reds are not even home after all, but Winker has been nearly as dominant on the road with a 152 wRC+ and .226 ISO away from home since 2020. Perhaps it might be more optimal for Houser to simply put him on at this pace.

The Bullpens You Want to Attack on Thursday Night

We may have less than half the league active on a seven game slate on Thursday night, but tonight’s board also includes four of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days in the Pirates (5.47 ERA, 4.95 xFIP), Royals (5.83 ERA, 5.26 FIP), Orioles (5.57 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.87 xFIP) and Twins (5.71 ERA, 4.59 FIP). There are two problems with attacking the Pittsburgh bullpen with New York Mets tonight. The first is that J.T. Brubaker has been quite good (18 K-BB%) and the game currently sports the most ominous weather forecast on the board (ORANGE). Of course, if that means an early delay that gets Brubaker lifted earlier, that could work towards our advantage.

The Royals are a bullpen we can attack tonight with Cleveland bats, but that’s not because Danny Duffy has been bad this year. It’s because Kansas City has been very cautious in bringing him back from injury with just 10.1 IP over four outings. Jose Ramirez (174 wRC+, .302 ISO vs LHP since 2020) is the most obvious target as a switch hitter, who won’t be hurt when Duffy is replaced by a RHP in the middle innings. Cleveland has the third highest implied run line on the board (4.78).

The Orioles are certainly a target, but the bullpen doesn’t necessarily make them any more so. The Blue Jays not only have the highest implied run line on the board (6.33), but no other team even exceeds five. While Keegan Akin is no longer scheduled to start, he may still get a few innings in and it’s unclear how Dillon Tate would be expected to improve the situation too much with an inning or two of opening duty. The Tigers have the fourth highest implied run line on the slate (4.54) because J.A. Happ has allowed 11 home runs over his last 29 innings with a 31.1 GB% and 91.7 mph EV. That kind of contact profile is not going to work with a sub-20 K%. While the Detroit offense has lacked success as a group against LHP this year, Akil Baddoo is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 98 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and Robbie Grossman (120 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only one among the group costing more than $3K on FanDuel.

Consider Paying Down for Quality Pitchers in Great Spots

A rare occurrence where the most expensive pitchers may have some competition lower down on the board for the top overall arm tonight. That’s because two quality pitchers are in excellent spots tonight. We’re talking about Tyler Mahle (at Brewers) and Zach Eflin (at Cubs). Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 34.4 K% with fewer than seven strikeouts just once and no less than six. With the rest of his profile somewhat average, a 29.9 K% for the season has all of his estimators within one-third of a run of his 3.63 ERA. In fact, a 3.65 is his worst estimator. The Brewers are coming off a double header in New York yesterday and only one batter in the projected lineup (Omar Narvaez) is below a 24 K% vs RHP since last season.

Eflin has fewer than five strikeouts with a single digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. We could optimistically say he’s faced the toughest offenses of the NL West over that span, but he also had his lowest single game average velocity of the season last time out. He’s walked just 13 batters all season, which has kept estimators below four (except for a 4.36 DRA) despite a marginal 22.3 K% for the season. The actual ERA (4.13) is a bit elevated, due to a .324 BABIP, which is ironically 50 points above what the Philadelphia defense has allowed despite the fact they’re one of the worst units in the league as measured by Statcast (-14 Runs Prevented). None of this is ideal. However, Eflin gets the Cubs (88 wRC+, 26.8 K% vs RHP) on a cool night with a double digit wind forecast to be blowing in from left field at Wrigley. The matchup may be everything here. Eflin costs just $7.5K on DraftKings, Mahle is a bit less than $9K on either site.

Top Pitchers Facing Off in Low Upside Matchups

On a seven game Thursday night slate, the only two pitchers to hit $10 on both sites face each other in San Diego tonight. There’s been a lot of talk about a lot of pitchers in terms of, if it weren’t for deGrom, this guy would be a leading Cy Young contender. Well, don’t forget that Max Scherzer’s still here and still dominating. All he’s done is produce a 29.6 K-BB% with a 3.25 xFIP his only estimator above 3.10. Omitting the start he left after one batter with a hamstring injury, he’s completed five innings in every start and has 10 starts of at least six innings with two runs or less. The Padres are far from an ideal matchup with a 104 wRC+, 11.8 K-BB% and 14.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but Scherzer gets a significant park upgrade and may be the superior value as the cheaper of the two on FanDuel at least.

While the surface results have said that Yu Darvish has been great all season, the underlying numbers showed a 30 GB% with a marginally above average 12.0 SwStr% through May. While his strikeout rate (31.7%) has remained stable and his ERA (3.57) has even risen quite a bit, he’s generating more contact on the ground (39.3%), despite allowing half of his 12 home runs over his six starts, and has a much higher swinging strike rate (14.3%) since the start of June. In fact, his xFIP and SIERA have actually declined nearly half a run over this span. A 3.73 xFIP is his only estimator above three and a half, though all are at least slightly above his 2.65 ERA this season. While the Nationals have just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP, that includes a 15 HR/FB. Sure, the power declines with Kyle Schwarber currently on the IL, but so do the strikeouts. The currently projected lineup for the Nationals includes six batters below a 20 K% vs RHP since last season. Darvish could be over-valued here.

The remaining $10K pitcher on FanDuel represents a massive discrepancy between sites. Alek Manoah is $3.5K cheaper on DraftKings ($6.8K). He set career highs with seven innings pitched and 10 strikeouts last time out against the Rays and will now be facing the Orioles for the third time in four starts. While he’s struck out 12 of 40 O’s with just three walks, he allowed four home runs in one of those starts, but did not allow an earned run in the other. With a 21.0 K-BB% through seven starts, he has a 3.64 ERA and 3.42 that are more than a half run above his 2.70 ERA (.214 BABIP, 89 LOB%), while additional estimators creep above four. You have to be cautious about a lineup facing a pitcher so many times in a such a short time span and the park certainly favors offense, but the Orioles have just a 84 wRC+, 24.7 K% and 11.4 HR/FB vs RHP. Manoah is certainly an option on DraftKings, but the price tag has risen too far, too quickly on FanDuel.

LHBs Own a wOBA and xwOBA Above .400 Against This Pitcher Since 2020

Jose Urena has now thrown 95.2 innings since last season, no longer a small sample, which makes his outrageous split numbers so eye catching. By far, the worst split on the board for any pitcher against batters from either side of the plate, LHBs have a .423 wOBA and .406 ISO against Urena since last season. We used to be able to say that at least he keeps the ball on the ground, but that’s not even the case anymore. Over his last six starts, he has just a 42 GB% and 92.9 mph EV. In his last five starts, he’s allowed 28 runs (25 earned) over 18 innings. He’s allowed at least three home runs in two of his last three starts and had a 100.1 mph EV on 10 batted balls last time out. Perhaps lucky for him, the Texas lineup doesn’t have a lot of LHBs and even fewer quality LHBs, yet the Rangers are implied for 5.17 runs by oddsmakers tonight, which means players will certainly want to have exposure to the few competent LHBs they have. That includes a very short list of Joey Gallo (117 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHPs since 2020), Nate Lowe (120 wRC+, .194 ISO) and possibly Jonah Heim (72 wRC+, .130 ISO). While his numbers against RHP aren’t productive at all, he was an above average hitter in the minors and has a 127 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Perhaps most importantly, he’s now hitting in the middle of the lineup and costs just $2.5K on DraftKIngs and the minimum on FanDuel.

Quality Affordable RHBs Against Over-Valued LHP

Ryan Weathers hasn’t been nearly as good as his 2.63 ERA (.241 BABIP, 87 LOB%) according to estimators that are above four and a half with just a 10.7 K-BB%. In fact, RHBs have a .321 wOBA, but .356 xwOBA against him, according to Statcast. Looking at the projected Washington lineup, all seven batters with more than 10 PAs against LHP exceeds a 100 wRC+ against them since last season and of the six RHBs that includes, only Trea Turner (189 wRC+, .279 ISO) costs more than $3K on either site. There are certainly some issues here in that San Diego is a negative run environment and Weathers will not go through the lineup more than twice (if that), but with a 4.43 FIP and 4.44 xFIP over the last 30 days, the San Diego bullpen has not been dominant and the opportunity to more comfortably afford some of tonight’s top pitchers might make Washington bats worth the risk. Ryan Zimmerman (129 wRC+, .219 ISO) generally bats cleanup against southpaws, while Yan Gomes (150 wRC+, .305 ISO) can fill an often difficult catcher’s spot. Without a confirmed starting pitcher of their own yet, oddsmakers have not yet set run totals for this game, but it’s probably a safe bet that the Nationals will be on the bottom half of the board tonight, but with a quality lineup that has resulted in a team 106 wRC+ vs LHP this year, their bats should have some value tonight.

Hidden Value in Lineup with Low Implied Run Line

Jose Berrios is one of the most erratic pitchers in the league. You never know where he’s going to throw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts or something less than a quality start when he goes out there. Coming off a nine strikeout performance against the Indians, Jose Berrios faced 26 White Sox last time out and didn’t strike out a single one. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 12 of 16 starts, but beyond that, you can never tell what the performance will be. The sum is a 3.52 ERA that’s mostly in line with, but at least slightly lower than all of his estimators. One thing we can single out now is his problem with LHBs, who have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him since last season. While the White Sox have an implied run line of just four, they may have some of the top values on the board, which is important because pitching is expensive tonight. We can’t fully buy into Gavin Sheet’s performance against RHP yet (266 wRC+, .500 ISO) with just 21 PAs, but that might be enough in this spot for a guy projected to bat in the middle of the lineup for less than $3K. Brian Goodwin (139 wRC+. 262 ISO vs RHP since 2020) has a larger sample size and is projected to bat cleanup and is within $300 of $3K on either site. Should Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .172 ISO) find himself moving up in the order, he costs just $2.5K or less. Despite their low implied run line, we might be able to expect something more from LH White Sox bats tonight, which could also help provide a patch towards Jacob deGrom in your daily fantasy lineups.

First Major League Start in the Worst Spot on the Board

The Toronto Blue Jays currently own the highest implied run line on the board by more than a full run at 6.56. Who are they facing? It doesn’t matter, it’s in Baltimore…seems to be the prevailing opinion of oddsmakers, who are showing little confidence in Spenser Watkins, making his first major league start. Watkins is a 28 year-old, who came over from Detroit and has thrown a single major league inning in relief this year. Going by age alone, he’s unlikely to be any sort of prospect and Fangraphs has never previously even mentioned him in any prospect writings. He first reached AAA in 2019, throwing 76.2 innings with a 20.8 K%, 7.8 BB% and 32.9 GB%. He returned to AAA for Baltimore this year with more of the same in 32.2 innings (20 K%, 8.1 BB%, 37.2 GB%). He’s allowed 28 home runs in those 109.1 combined AAA innings. Yes, it certainly looks like there could be some problems here, unless he has some kind of wipe out slider that dominates RHBs that nobody has written about. Facing same-handed pitching hasn’t slowed down a predominantly RH Toronto lineup. In fact, Reese McGuire is the only batter in the projected lineup below a .179 ISO vs RHP since last season and Randal Grichuk joins him as the only other batter below a 100 wRC+ against them. The problem is that you’re not stacking Blue Jays with deGrom tonight, especially on DraftKings, where Vladimir Guerrero (165 wRC+, .278 ISO) costs $6.2K. In fact, the only price break you’re going to get outside Reese is Cavan Biggio’s (108 wRC+, .185 ISO) $2.7K cost on FanDuel. A Toronto stack could differentiate against deGrom lineups though, as only George Springer and Marcus Semien are currently projected for double digit ownership on DraftKings.