DFS Alerts

Twelve HRs and 20 Barrels in Just 38 Innings

Tarik Skubal has begun missing some bats again. He’s struck out 22 of his last 69 with just five walks over that span. The bad news is that he still has a 25.2 GB% and has allowed four more home runs on six more Barrels over these three starts. Skubal had some enormous minor league strikeout rates, but the lack of strikeouts early on has played a large part in batters generating 20 Barrels (17.9%) over just 38 innings with 12 of them leaving the yard. While the Cleveland lineup hasn’t been good to begin with and certainly suffers more without Franmil Reyes in this spot, it’s still a fairly contact prone offense that is projected to send up eight RHBs against Skubal. Since being called up to the show, batters from that side of the plate have a .385 wOBA (.371 xwOBA) against him. This is a big spot for Jose Ramirez (157 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP since 2020), who may even be the top overall bat on the board tonight. Players can supplement him with Amed Rosario (127 wRC+), Jordan Luplow (110 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Harold Ramirez (105 wRC+, .207 ISO) much more cheaply. At 4.84 implied runs, the Cleveland offense places fourth on tonight’s board.

RHBs Have Homered in Eight of 55 PAs Against This Pitcher

The bullpen for the Arizona Diamondbacks have a 6.44 ERA over the last month that’s a full run worse than any other bullpen in baseball after a weekend series at Coors. Their ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are also only slightly better, all either fifth or sixth worst over the last month. Considering that other terrible bullpens over the last month, like the Rockies (5.44 ERA, 5.01 FIP) and Cardinals (5.11 xFIP, 4.97 SIERA) are less exploitable with the former facing a depleted Mets’ lineup and the latter starting Jack Flaherty against an offense ill-equipped to exploit a sizeable platoon split, the Diamondbacks might be the pen players want to attack tonight.

Corbin Martin struck out six of 23 Dodgers, but with just a 5.2 SwStr% and four walks. Seven of 13 batted balls were on the ground, but with a 90.5 mph EV and two Barrels. That’s not the lineup you want to judge him against and he is still a well-regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), but he’s still faced only 64 major or minor league batters this year under competitive circumstances and 10 of the 115 major league batters he’s faced in his career have taken him deep (including eight of 55 RHBs). Players might want to consider Buster Posey (164 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) in their catcher slot tonight. He has a 227 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days and a 96.5 mph EV on elevated contact (non-ground balls) this year. The Giants are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight. One potential negative aspect though, is that the Diamondbacks’ website states that the roof will be open tonight and Baseball Savant’s new Park Factors call this park a neutral run environment under such conditions over the last three years, perhaps a byproduct of the humidor.

The Top Pitching Value on FanDuel Tonight

If not paying up for one of many $10K arms tonight, high upside matchups pop for Aaron Civale (at Tigers), Cole Irvin (vs Mariners) and Joe Musgrove (at Brewers). Wait…Joe Musgrove? How did he escape the $10K mob tonight? He does reach $9.5K on DraftKings, making him the third most expensive pitcher there, but is over $1K less on FanDuel, potentially making him the top value on that site tonight. Bouncing back from a rough two start stretch where he allowed 10 of his 16 runs, he’s allowed just one over his last two starts. Most recently, Musgrove struck out 11 Rockies, his third double digit strikeout effort of the season, putting him at 34.7% of batters with a 15 SwStr%. In addition to a 5.4 BB%, nearly half his contact (48.7%) has been on the ground with an 87.5 mph EV. A 3.38 xERA is his only estimator more than half a run removed from his 2.47 ERA. The projected lineup for the Brewers does not include a single batter above a .330 wOBA or .182 ISO vs RHP since 2020 (and both of those are Dan Vogelbach). It also includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP over that span.

As for the other two pitchers, Aaron Civale has changed so much for a small effect to his overall line. He’s completely over-hauled his arsenal and increased his ground ball rate (48.4%), but a lot of that has come from his line drives (19.5%), as his fly ball rate remains virtually the same and his 3.30 ERA is mostly the product of a .233 BABIP. His strikeouts, walks and exit velocity are all fairly similar to his career rates. Between $8-9K on either site, most of his value in a great matchup (Tigers 91 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP) is tied to his workload. Civale has recorded seventh inning outs in six of nine starts. In a stretch of four starts from April 17th to May 4th that included the Tigers and Rays, Cole Irvin struck out 29 of 99 batters, so he’s proven that he can show up in a high upside spot, as tonight’s matchup with the Mariners (77 wRC+, 29.5 K% vs LHP) is and at $7.2K or less, he’s a fine alternate choice and would be the top SP2 on DraftKings if Kevin Gausman didn’t cost just $500 more. However, beware that outside that four start stretch, Irvin has struck out just 11 of 120, though three of those five starts have come against the Astros.

Potential Workload Issues Among Tonight's Most Expensive Arms

It almost feels like Opening Day with six pitchers reaching the $10K mark on FanDuel, though just Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on DraftKings. Normally, a deGrom matchup at home against the Rockies (61 wRC+, 7.2 HR/FB on the road, 68 wRC+ vs RHP) would be the answer to all of your pitching questions outside of ownership concerns. Five batters in the projected Colorado lineup exceed a 25 K% against RHP since last season. The issue here, and it’s a large one, is that deGrom faced just 10 batters in a minor league rehab start and threw just 68 pitches in his only major league start in May. Even with maximum efficiency, workload expectations should be tempered. Another pitcher with more permanent workload issues is Corbin Burnes. His 44.7 K% and 18.5 SwStr% are both second only to deGrom on this slate. He’s struck out at least nine in every start and walked just two, but has not thrown more than 93 pitches in a start and has exceeded 87 just twice. He hasn’t recorded a seventh inning out since his first start. In fact, he hasn’t reached 11 strikeouts since that start either. The gap from floor to ceiling seems to be fairly narrow. Then there’s the Padres (103 wRC+, 10 K-BB% vs RHP). He may be a pitcher players might want to consider going under-weight on tonight.

Jack Flaherty is facing Lucas Giolito, who actually costs less than $9K on either site, due to some struggles this year. Estimators are much higher than Flaherty’s 2.53 ERA (.239 BABIP, 7.7 HR/FB) with non-FIP estimators hanging around four. Perhaps a bit fortunate that just four of 11 Barrels (8%) have left the yard and his strikeout rate (25.8%) isn’t much above league average this year. Meanwhile, the White Sox have a 106 wRC+ and 12.5 K-BB% vs RHP. Clayton Kershaw has had a few difficult starts this year, but his 20.9 SwStr% over the last month tops the board and his worst estimator is a 3.29 DRA. He’s completed seven innings in three of 10 starts this year with fewer than six just three times. He has a bigger matchup problem than Flaherty though, in Houston (126 wRC+, 16.9 K% vs LHP).

The remaining two pitchers might be the most interesting. After a slow start in the strikeout department, Kevin Gausman has fanned 35.5% of batters (16.4 SwStr%) over the last month to push his season rate up to 29.6%. He’s also completed six innings in all nine of his starts, allowing more than a single run in just one of them. Estimators are most a run to a run and a half above his 1.66 ERA, depending on whether you buy into his 7.3 HR/FB, but he’s also allowed just 6.9% Barrrels/BBE and has a 2.87 xERA. He’s in a great spot from a run prevention standpoint. The Diamondbacks have just an 87 wRC+ and 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP. The challenge is that no batter in the projected Arizona lineup is above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. However, Gausman costs $3.6K less on DraftKings than he does on FanDuel. He’s a near necessity in your SP2 spot there.

Max Scherzer has a 35.7 K% and 16 SwStr% that are only third and fourth best on the board, respectively. He’s allowed more than two runs in just two of nine starts. In fact, he’s allowed a total of five runs over those other seven starts. The 87.6 LOB% may be unsustainable, but a 3.35 DRA is his worst estimator. While the Reds have a 111 wRC+ and 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP, they have an 87 wRC+ and 11.9 HR/FB away from home and are still missing key LHBs in the middle of the order. A lineup that leans predominantly RH now, includes just three projected starters from the left side tonight and RHBs have just a .265 wOBA against Scherzer since last season. There are also five batters in that projected lineup above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020 as well. Scherzer is the second most expensive pitcher on either site, but considering workload limitations on deGrom and Burnes (with the latter in a tough spot as well), he may be your top overall arm in the highest upside spot for expensive arms tonight.

Batters From Either Side Above a .360 wOBA Against This Pitcher

The Orioles aren’t very good against RHP this year (79 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB), yet they find themselves tied with the team they are playing for the second highest implied run line on the board tonight (4.5). That has much more to do with the pitcher whom they are facing. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Matt Shoemaker in a sample that includes just over 300 batters and is fairly evenly split since last year. That makes a lot of cheap Orioles fairly viable tonight, especially if paying up for high priced pitching. Cedric Mullins (124 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is the highest priced Baltimore bat on DraftKings ($4.1K), among those projected, while Trey Mancini (106 wRC+, .180 ISO) is the only on above $3.2K on FanDuel. Anthony Santander (132 wRC+, .296 ISO) seems incredibly underpriced on both sites ($3.3K DK, $2.5K FD). Should Shoemaker find an early exit, the Minnesota pen has been struggling as well. They have a 4.79 ERA and 5.01 FIP over the last 30 days.

Cheap Lineup with Surprising Punch

The roar of the Tigers isn’t scaring anyone against LHP this year (64 wRC+, 32 K%, 5.2 HR/FB), but if you’re considering paying up for pitcher, you still might want to look into rostering some of their bats. The sample size is small and needs to be regressed at just 54 batters, but Sam Hentges hasn’t shown that he has anything that can consistently get them out (.472 wOBA, .313 ISO) and Statcast confirms (.417 xwOBA). The Tigers also have several batters who have performed well against LHP since last season in the projected lineup with none reaching $3K on FanDuel and just Robbie Grossman (121 wRC) above $4K on DraftKings. Miguel Cabrera (160 wRC+, .175 ISO) can still do damage against southpaws and he’s joined by Jeimer Candelario (176 wRC+, .159 ISO), Niko Goodrum (142 wRC+, .22. ISO and Eric Haase (156 wRC+, .267 ISO) in being exceptional against lefties, though the latter in a very small sample as well. Oddsmakers see the potential here as the Tigers actually own the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.41).

This Lineup Smashes LHP (135 wRC+)

Kwang-hyun Kim a 2.07 ERA over 65.1 major league innings with batters from either side below a .300 wOBA against him. So, why do the White Sox have the highest implied run line on the slate (4.85) by more than a quarter of a run. There are several very good reasons for this actually. We could start with Kim’s 4.56 xERA this year, which matches his career 4.57 SIERA. Also via Statcast, RHBs have a .337 xwOBA against him since last season, a 47 point jump from his actual results. Next, the projected lineup for the White Sox (135 wRC+ vs LHP) includes eight RHBs, all except Leury Garcia owning a wRC+ above 110 against southpaws since last season. Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn and Tim Anderson all exceed a 150 wRC+ and .340 ISO against LHP since 2020. Yasmani Grandal and Yermin Mercedes exceed 170 and .215. In other words, this lineup is loaded and should Kim see an early exit, the onslaught could continue against a St Louis bullpen with a 5.02 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA over the last 30 days. Kim’s results have been strong, but there are underlying issues and this is a dangerous spot where he could be exposed.

Several High Upside Mid-Range Pitchers

The Detroit Tigers have a 64 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.2 HR/FB vs LHP. The problem is that Sam Hentges has done nothing to prove that he merits any consideration even in this high upside spot with just a 19.7 K% (8.2 SwStr%), walking nine of 76 batters with a 91.4 mph EV and five of eight Barrels (15.4%) leaving the yard. As the lowest priced pitcher on the board, DraftKings players can hope and pair him with a higher priced pitcher, but the upside appears limited. Another low priced pitcher, Austin Gomber, gets a significant park upgrade when he travels to face the Mets. With the majority of the starting lineup, including Pete Alonso, on the IL this is a much better spot that one would normally imagine for him. Gomber has allowed just two runs over his last 11.1 innings, striking out 13 of 46 Padres, while estimators believe he’s a bit better than his 4.96 ERA (55.8 LOB%) with a league average strikeout rate (24%).

A bit more expensively, but still $8K or less on either site, David Peterson offers a lot of volatility, but also more upside. If he can avoid that one inning where he seems to unravel in some starts, such as in Atlanta last time out, when he faced the minimum through four innings, but then didn’t make it out of the fifth, his 28.9 K% and 52.6 GB% are fairly exceptional. The problem is that nine of his 23 fly balls have been Barrels. The Rockies do have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP, but just a 58 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% and 7.7 HR/FB on the road. Frankie Montas is another marginally priced pitcher ($8.5K on FanDuel, but just $6.2K on DraftKings) when the Mariners (86 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP) come to Oakland. Montas has just a 21.4 K%, but 11.2 SwStr% that’s perfectly league average. His issue has been Barrels (11.9%), but the projected Seattle lineup includes just two batters (Haniger & Seager) above a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season.

A bit more expensive and facing offenses that aren’t that bad against LHP are Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi. Snell is coming off his best start of the year against the Rockies, striking out 11 with just one walk over six innings. Each of those numbers represent a season best. Yet, with a 33 K%, he still doesn’t reach a 20 K-BB%, due to a 13.7 BB%. This has kept his 3.79 ERA very close to a 3.83 SIERA and 3.72 FIP. Add in a contact profile with 10.4% Barrels/BBE, despite an 87 mph EV and his xERA climbs above four. He doesn’t go deep into games and the Brewers have an 11.2 BB% against LHP that could challenge his pitch count, but also a 26.9 K% against southpaws that might make it worth considering a price tag around $9K. Kikuchi is in Oakland (119 wRC+ vs LHP), but costs less than $9K averaging 25 batters per start with a 26.4 K% against mostly thunderous lineups against LHP this year. He could be a strong leverage play if ownership projects low enough.

Tough Spots for High Priced Pitchers

Despite the small six game slate, three pitchers (25%) reach the $10K point on at least one site with Brandon Woodruff the only pitcher doing so on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Woodruff has been on fire, rolling off eight straight starts with two runs or less. The 1.58 ERA is a bit unsustainable (.195 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%, 7.5 HR/FB), but with a 30.5 K%, 6.6 BB% and just 4.6% Barrels/BBE, his worst estimator is a 3.16 SIERA. The biggest constraint to rostering Woodruff is the matchup. The Padres are the hottest team in the National League (145 wRC+ last seven days) and have just a 20.1 K% (10.6 BB%) against RHP this year.

John Means has been exceptional in his road efforts, allowing just three total runs and two home runs over six starts away from Baltimore, where a 29.9 GB% has been less of an issue in some of the more pitcher friendly parks he’s pitched in. He’s allowed 14 Barrels (9.7%), despite just an 86.4 mph EV. The .188 BABIP and 96.5 LOB% are completely unsustainable, but his 15 SwStr% is tops on the slate tonight. Estimators are mostly hovering around the mid-threes. Again, the issue here is the matchup. The Twins have a 110 wRC+ and 16.4 HR/FB vs LHP. Means is more viable for $9.1K on FanDuel.

Lance Lynn reached the six inning threshold for the first time in four starts back from the IL last time out, but struck out just two Twins with as many solo home runs allowed. A .231 BABIP, 87.2 LOB% and 7.8 HR/FB are responsible for estimators much higher than his 1.55 ERA. All are still below four, but some (3.96 xFIP), not by much. He’s been above 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, but it hasn’t gotten him as far as usual. He may have a little something extra in the tank for the Cardinals, but without an expectation of more than six innings, his value drops a bit. The good news is that he has the best matchup from a run prevention standpoint. The Cardinals have just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP, but also a very marginal 23.1 K%. While there’s nothing wrong with any of these three arms, tonight might be a slate where players consider paying down for pitching with additional pitchers in high upside spots.

Top Two Value Bats on the Board

Jordan Montgomery is a pretty good pitcher. Almost certainly better than his 4.75 ERA with most estimators below four (67.3 LOB%). However, he has displayed significant platoon issues (RHBs .357 wOBA, .340 xwOBA) since 2019, which is bad news against a White Sox team that has a 142 wRC+ vs LHP this year and is projected to stack the lineup entirely right-handed. There are a few RHBs in that lineup that aren’t very good against LHP (Billy Hamilton, Leury Garcia) and a couple without any power (Danny Mendick, Nick Madrigal), who cost less than $3K on either site, but the absolute craziest price on the board today is Andrew Vaughn’s cost of just $2.2K on either site tonight. Sure, his 203 wRC+ and .308 ISO against LHP comes in a small sample (just 34 PAs), but the .461 xwOBA confirms that he’s been doing some damage and merits a price tag probably double his current cost on DraftKings. You may not want to stack White Sox bats against Montgomery and a strong Yankee bullpen (exactly four implied runs), but plopping Vaughn in your outfield provides a path towards some of those higher priced arms tonight.

Another absurd price tag on either site is Luis Arraez (129 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) costing less than $3K on DraftKings and just $2.3K on FanDuel. He’s projected to lead off against Triston McKenzie, whom LHBs have a .359 wOBA against since his debut last year. McKenzie has a 31.5 K% (14.1 SwStr%), but Arraez doesn’t strike out (9% vs RHP). Even crazier than Arraez’s price tag is the fact that McKenzie has a higher walk rate (19.7%) and Barrels/BBE (17.7%) than ground ball rate this year (16.4%). Starting your lineups with Arraez and Vaughn leaves players with a lot of room for whatever else you want to do tonight.

Forecast Could Make This a Smash Spot for RHBs

Martin Perez’s greatest, and perhaps only, value to the Red Sox is his penchant for inducing soft contact (86.3 mph EV since 2019), but that hasn’t stopped RHBs from owning a .338 wOBA against him over that span. Among the five RHBs in the projected lineup for the Phillies with more than 30 PAs against LHP since 2019, all are above a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO against them over that time frame. Add in the current forecast of a temperature around 80 degrees with near double digit winds blowing out to CF and you have a situation ripe for stacking Phillies tonight. Among those five RHBs, only Alec Bohm has a wRC+ below 100 over the last 30 days as well. Andrew McCutchen (157 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2019), Jean Segura (120 wRC+, .232 ISO), J.T. Realmuto (131 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Rhys Hoskins (168 wRC+, .299 ISO) are all key bats here and Bryce Harper handles lefties well too (143 wRC+, .261 ISO). The Phillies are tied for the fifth highest implied run line on the board tonight (4.7).

Three HRs in 10 PAs Against Pitcher with a Large Platoon Split

On a 15 game slate with a few inter-divisional matchups, we get into some batter/pitcher matchups with a fairly large sample size. Five players have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight and a few of those names are fairly interesting. The one we can likely omit is Matt Carpenter, as his three HRs come in 59 PAs against Kyle Hendricks with a .278 xOBA and he’s not even projected to be in the lineup tonight. In the same matchup, Anthony Rizzo (three HRs, 54 PAs) faces Carlos Martinez. His success comes with just an 86.7 mph EV, but .366 xwOBA and 11.1 K%. Maikel Franco (three HRs, .415 xwOBA, 34 PAs vs Stephen Strasburg) is the big surprise on this list and probably not enough to roster him.

Randal Grichuk is one of those interesting names because Tyler Glasnow has been a bit home run prone with seven over his last five starts, something he’s carried with him throughout his career, along with a bit of a reverse split that gives RHBs a .176 ISO against him in his career. We know that the temporary home for the Blue Jays in Florida has played very power friendly this year too. Grichuk (three HRs, 19 PAs, .426 xwOBA, 94.8 mph EV vs Glasnow) or any Blue Jay for that matter, is more of a leverage one off than part of a stacking solution against Glasnow, who is one of the highest upside pitchers on any slate.

Jesse Winker has hit his three home runs against Adrian Houser in just 10 PAs, but still projects as a strong play based on his 145 wRC+ and .266 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and 168 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall against Houser’s .365 wOBA (.329 xwOBA) vs LHBs since 2019 as well. If you’re thinking of stacking against Houser, realize that he’s kept RHBs on the ground 65.1% of the time on contact over that same span and this lineup is missing Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas right now. In fact, Tyler Naquin (106 wRC+, .198 ISO) has been hitting cleanup and is the only other formidable LHB in this lineup. The park is certainly very power friendly, but the Reds sit right smack in the middle of the board at 4.3 implied runs.

The Worst Bullpens in the Best Spot

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the worst bullpen in the majors over the last month by ERA (6.80), far worse than the second worst Cincinnati Reds (6.08). Arizona’s 5.98 FIP over that span is third worst behind the Angels (5.27) and Rockies (5.25). They’re 4.65 xFIP is second worst to the Reds (4.71) and their 4.30 SIERA is third worst behind the Cardinals (4.84) and Rockies (4.62). These are the bullpens you should be looking to attack tonight and the Daily Fantasy Gods have a special treat for players tonight: the Diamondbacks and Rockies square off at Coors.

Seth Frankoff struck out four of 21 Nationals in his season debut (10 SwStr%), also walking four with eight of 12 batted balls on the ground without a Barrel and an 81.4 mph EV. The 32 year-old is coming off a couple of marginal KBO seasons in 2018 and 2019 and doubled his career major league output with that 4.2 inning start against Washington. Of course, the issue is that Charlie Blackmon (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Trevor Story (109 wRC+, .234 ISO) are the only above average hitters vs RHP since 2019, but C.J. Cron has a 188 wRC+ overall in May and you don’t need to be a good hitter to have value at Coors. Cron costs less than $4K on DraftKings. German Marquez is a bit more formidable (23.2 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 53.6 GB%), but does have a 13 BB% that may quickly drive up his pitch count and get into that bullpen early. He has a 5.56 ERA, 4.57 SIERA and 4.58 xERA. The Arizona lineup just got a boost with Ketel Marte (133 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2019) returning. The Rockies have far and away the top implied run line on the slate (6.06). The Diamondbacks are tied for third (4.94).

The Reds send Jeff Hoffman (9.0 SwStr% with a 35.3 GB% and 91.4 mph EV) to the mound against the Brewers. A 5.65 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter run outside his 4.67 ERA. Omar Narvaez (120 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Dan Vogelbach (119 wRC+, .236 ISO) are both fairly cheap and are expected to bat in the middle of this lineup. The Angels will send Jose Quintana up against the A’s, who hammer LHP. A 32.3 K% and 13.8 SwStr% are completely out of character for Quintana, but the bad news is that he’s also doubled his career walk rate at 15%. Not bad news for the A’s though, especially with his 21.1 HR/FB. All of that will drive up a pick count quickly and get into an awful pen fairly early.

A Pair of Mid-Range Lefties in High Upside Spots

High upside spots, as defined by opposing strikeout rates, not belonging to top of the board pitchers tonight find Adrian Houser (at Reds), Anthony Kay (vs Rays), Chris Paddack (vs Mariners), Mike Minor (vs Tigers) and Tyler Anderson (at Braves). Six of eight projected starters for the Reds exceed a 24 K% against RHP since 2019, but Houser generates ground balls (60.2%), not strikeouts (20.6%, 7.5 SwStr%). Kay is $6K or less with a 16.1 K-BB%, but has not exceeded 18 batters in any appearance yet and while the Rays do strike out a ton, it’s not a bad lineup in a very dangerous park.

The remaining three seem somewhat more viable here. Despite a velocity increase, Paddack still hasn’t been able to recapture his rookie year success. He’s struck out just 21.1% with a 10.9 SwStr% and while a 6.8 BB% isn’t bad, it’s dropped his K-BB below average to a still respectable 14.3%. With a ground ball and exit velocity around league average, perhaps he’s just not a front end pitcher some expect him to be. There’s nothing wrong with a league average pitcher though, especially at a low price in this spot. Four of eight projected Mariners exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019. Paddack is the most expensive of the three on DraftKings ($8.6K), but just $6.3K on FanDuel, where he could be a top value if efficient enough to get through six innings, something he’s not yet done this year.

The strikeout rate has jumped to 28.6% over the last month for Minor, but the swinging strike rate is actually in single digits (9.8%) over that span. On the season, he has the odd combination of a .245 BABIP, but 64.8 LOB% that has his ERA above five (5.02). Most estimators are in the low to mid-fours though and that should be good enough for the Tigers (58 wRC+, 33.7 K%, 4.9 HR/FB vs LHP) for less than $8K. Anderson, also less than $8K, might be the most interesting leverage play because players probably aren’t thinking of a predominantly RH Atlanta lineup has a high upside spot and they do have a 17.9 HR/FB vs southpaws this year, but that comes with an 87 wRC+ and 27.4 K%. Five of eight in the projected lineup exceed a 24.5 K% vs LHP since 2019 too. Anderson allowed more than three runs in a start for the first time this year last time out, but still struck out seven of 23 Giants, a team that normally punishes LHP. The velocity has dropped since April, but he’s still riding increased cutter usage (27.1%) to success with a 3.50 ERA that’s about a half run below non-FIP estimators with only a 4.03 SIERA above four.

Fifteen games on Friday and they are all on a main slate that leaves us with no shortage of top end pitching. No fewer than seven pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site tonight, which immediately makes you think that ownership should not be a problem. We can probably omit Stephen Strasburg (vs Orioles), who has thrown 15 innings since winning the 2019 World Series. Remaining candidates are Aaron Nola (vs Red Sox), Alex Wood (vs Dodgers), Carlos Rodon (at Yankees), Ian Anderson (vs Pirates), Trevor Bauer (at Giants) and Tyler Glasnow (at Blue Jays).

Glasnow and Bauer immediately catch your eye as guys who most normally belong in this spot and are probably the two highest upside arms without taking opposing lineup into consideration. These are the two highest strikeout rates on the slate at 38.6% and 35.5% respectively. Glasnow may be the one guy to watch for ownership projections on because we can find reasons to fade him or go under-weight tonight. He has allowed seven HRs on 10 Barrels (14.7%) over his last five starts (4.14 FIP, 3.58 ERA) and takes on a powerful Toronto lineup in a park that has played very power friendly over the first couple of months of the season. Of course, if Glasnow’s ownership projects poorly due to these issues, you’d certainly want some exposure because he has the highest strikeout rate on the board. Bauer has had some minor HR issues too. His 3.15 FIP is his worst estimator. While the Giants have a 103 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB vs RHP, they also have a 28.2 K% vs RHP. Bauer may be the top pitcher on the board tonight, but is also the most expensive. Perhaps a nearly $12K price tag lowers his ownership too much.

Nola is in a tough spot. The Red Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP. It’s a tough park that he’s not unaccustomed to having success in, but Weather Edge is currently projecting an enormous offensive boost, though that could change throughout the day. Nola is also just sixth in strikeout rate tonight (27.4%). Carlos Rodon has the third highest strikeout rate (33.8%) and is a much more interesting GPP play at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have just a 20.8 K% with an 18 HR/FB vs LHP and Rodon still has occasional control issues with three or more walks in half of his six starts. Again here, the matchup could push ownership rates down. Ian Anderson, on the other hand, has a great matchup. The Pirates have an 84 wRC+ and 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Four of eight batters in the projected lineup for Pittsburgh exceed a 29 K% vs RHP since 2019. He just may not be a $10K pitcher. A 25.3 K% (11.5 SwStr%) is a small drop from last year, but still fine. The walk rate is up to 11.3% however, as control issues have followed him at every stop since being drafted. Despite 55.3% of his contact on the ground with an 88 mph EV, he’s still allowed 13 Barrels (11%), though just four HRs. As a result, a 4.28 xERA joins a 4.03 SIERA as the two estimators which most disagree with his 3.20 ERA. He’s a better play at a lower price tag on FanDuel ($8.8K).

Wood may be the most interesting play of the bunch and perhaps even the top value on FanDuel ($9.1K) and leverage play on DraftKings ($10K). The matchup with the Dodgers should drive a lot of players away, but they have just an 89 wRC+, 25.8 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs LHP this year. With Wood’s 91.9 mph average velocity matching his previous peak, he is pitching like he did four years ago or even better with a career high 18.8 K-BB% and a career high 61.5% of his contact on the ground through six starts. Add in an 87.3 mph EV and he’s allowed just two Barrels (2.2%) with as many home runs, though that may not be very sustainable. Estimators are all quite a bit higher, but none worse than a 3.32 DRA. In addition, Wood has four Quality Starts out of a total of six attempts this year and has thrown at least 97 pitches four times too.