DFS Alerts

The High Upside Lefties on Tonight's Board

The top matchups on the board not belonging to the highest priced arms tonight find Randy Dobnak (at Orioles 80 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP), Jordan Montgomery (vs Rays 94 wRC+, 30.7 K% vs LHP), Jordan Lyles (at Rockies 64 wRC+, 24 K%, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP), Antonio Senzatela (vs Rangers 91 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP) and Sean Manaea (at Mariners 87 wRC+, 27.8 K% vs LHP). Let’s immediately thrown out the two ground ball, contact prone pitchers in bad parks (Dobnak & Senzatela). Each has a sub-17 K% and exit velocity averaging above 90 mph.

It’s hard to understand why Montgomery isn’t better than he is. Perhaps the division is part of it, but an above average strikeout rate (24.7%, 12.7 SwStr%) and just a 6% walk rate with a league average exit velocity and Barrels/BBE suggest a pretty good pitcher. In fact, only his DRA is above four. Yet his ERA is 4.22 because he’s only stranded 70.3% of runners. He’s much more interesting on FanDuel ($7.5K) than DraftKings ($9.3K) with 40% of his starts being of the “Quality” variety. Something many people probably don’t know is that BaseballSavant Park Factors consider Yankee Stadium a negative run environment. Lyles is up to a 24.6 K% (11.5 SwStr%) over his last five starts with a passable 4.18 ERA and estimators even lower over that span. One thing he hasn’t been able to improve upon is the 91.5 mph EV. His 5.24 xERA and 5.30 DRA are his only estimators above five for the season, but still aren’t nearly as high as his actual ERA (5.79). A .331 BABIP is 34 points above what his team defense allows, but don’t expect that to improve much at Coors. He’s $6.2K or less on either site, but probably serves better as a GPP SP2 on DraftKings because he may be the pitcher most likely to go boom or bust on this list.

Manaea is the highest priced pitcher on this list (at least $8.5K on either site), but by virtue of being a league average pitcher in this spot (24.2 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 5.5 BB%, 90.4 mph EV, 38.9 GB%, 3.71 SIERA, 4.06 xERA) with a solid workload (at least six innings in six of 11 starts), he makes an argument for being considered the top arm on the board, along with Walker Buehler, and perhaps a better value. One additional high upside arm to mention, who is in a better spot than many might perceive, is Shane McClanahan. Remember what was said above about Yankee Stadium and the home team has just a 94 wRC+ vs LHP with a league average strikeout rate (23.7%). A 17.7 SwStr% with a 6.5 BB% is pretty special. When contact has been made, it’s been a little too hard (91.5 mph), but has still only resulted in just 5.8% Barrels/BBE, despite a near average ground ball rate. His 3.09 xERA fits in snuggly with his 3.29 ERA and additional estimators. And that’s with a 29.6 K% that has the potential to be even higher. The problem is that he’s a twice through the order then out kind of guy. That may still play for less than $8K, especially on DraftKings.

Paying Up For Pitching May Not Be Ideal Tonight

No pitcher on an eight game Wednesday night slate reaches $10K on both sites tonight, though three pitchers hit that price point on at least one. Walker Buehler ($10.6K DK) has struck out just eight of 49 Giants over his last two starts, to drop his season to strikeout rate to 25.3%. His velocity has decreased over a mile per hour and his rate of Barrels/BBE has nearly doubled from 6.5% last year to 11.1%, but his ground ball rate is up to 42.2% and his exit velocity is down from 90 mph to 88.7 mph. Both are league average marks. His 50.4% four seam usage is the second lowest mark of his career. Virtually all of his estimators hover around three and a half, about a run above his 2.66 ERA (.235 BABIP, 84.1 LOB%). The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP in a negative run environment tonight. Walker also potentially has a pitcher friendly umpiring situation and while three of eight projected batters for St Louis exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020, the other five non-pitcher spots are below 21%. Buehler should be fine here and could be the top pitcher on the slate, but players do have the option of paying down (or at least less) tonight.

An odd decision that DraftKings and FanDuel have made is pricing at least one pitcher in the Marlins vs Blue Jays matchup at $10K tonight. Written in Alek Monoah’s Fangraphs’ scouting report in January…”Once softer and relatively unathletic, he’s transformed himself from a high-effort relief type into a potential workhorse mid-rotation starter.“ Monoah did more than back that assessment up dominating his three starts at AAA (40.9 K%) before being called up and striking out seven of 22 Yankees over six two-hit innings without allowing a run at Yankee Stadium. On the 13 balls the Yankees did put into play, they had an 80.1 mph EV. He has the potential to dominate the Marlins (86 wRC+, 26.4 K%, 9.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but the most expensive arm on FanDuel already (exactly $10K) seems excessive. He’s nearly $2K less on DraftKings, where he probably should and will appear in many lineups tonight.

Pablo Lopez continues to have stark home/road splits. While his K-BB% is 2.5 points higher at home in his career and the GB% is 3.6 points higher, the biggest difference is in a 9.0 HR/FB at home and 16.5 HR/FB on the road. He’s allowed three of his five home runs on the road this season in five starts, but has really only had one strong road start. If we trust the overall numbers, his 16.1 K-BB%, 47.4 GB% and 85.5 mph EV are marks of a good pitcher. Estimators are spread out between three and four, depending on how much you value the contact profile. The Blue Jays have a 113 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. They have a 150 team wRC+ over the last week. He is $10K on DraftKings and nearly $2K less on FanDuel, but a questionable choice on either site. The takeaway here is that paying for the most expensive arms tonight may not be ideal.

High Walk Rate & Positive Run Environment Suggest Optimal Stack

One start after striking out a season high seven Braves, Wil Crowe followed up by lasting just 11 batters with one strikeout against the Cubs last time out. Unable to capitalize on a more than two mph velocity bump from last season and a 32.9% 95+ mph EV that’s one of the lowest rates on the board today, even Crowe’s best estimators hover around five with the worst of them (FIP, xERA) ranging closely to his 5.67 ERA. One major problem is a 12.1 BB%. When facing a pitcher with a high walk rate, we generally want to stack to take advantage of all the potential base runners and runs scored. That’s certainly the case in Kansas City tonight, especially with batters from either side of the plate exceeding a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against Crowe in 35.1 innings since last year. A stack is also beneficial because Kansas City is a park that suppresses power, but is still actually a positive run environment. Salvador Perez is far and away the top bat in the lineup against RHP (144 wRC+, .246 ISO) and while he’s fairly expensive on DraftKings ($5K), he costs just half that on FanDuel ($2.6K). Perez and Carlos Santana (105 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2020) are the only projected Royals above $4K on DraftKings.

Large BvP Sample Looks Better with This Pitcher's Decline

Most batter/pitcher matchups have very little predictive value in a small sample. Baseball Savant has been able to add to that with exit velocities, but we still want to see either a fairly large sample or lots of hard contact in these matchups before considering it potentially relevant. One of the larger samples you’ll generally ever see is the 226 PAs that Savant says the current Atlanta roster has against Stephen Strasburg. While current Braves have just a .307 wOBA and 27.9 K% against him in those individual matchups combined, we’re mostly interested in one man who tallies nearly one-third of those PAs. While Freddie Freeman has just a .305 xwOBA against Strasburg in those 72 PAs, that sample includes four home runs and six doubles, which rounds down to nearly an extra-base hit every other game. We still don’t want to solely rely on that though because players change over the years it took this sample to accumulate and the changes from Strasburg have been negative and make this matchup even better for Freeman. Strasburg hasn’t been the same since the 2019 post-season. His fastball is down to 92 mph, which is about how hard it’s coming back out at him too (91.8 mph EV). He has just a 22.7 K% and 9.9 SwStr% with a 13.6 BB% through four starts this year. LHBs have a .383 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against him since the start of the 2020 season. Atlanta doesn’t have one of the highest implied run lines, but they’re on the upper half of the board tonight (4.54). Perhaps players are hesitant to attack Strasburg due to past success, but if Freeman has some success against him when he was great, this is certainly a great spot for both he and Ozzie Albies (108 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2020) tonight.

Bullpens Add Further Value to Potential Smash Spots Tonight

Bullpens generally have a lot of turnover, so by the time we hit June, including April stats may be somewhat useless because half of the relievers may be different. Using a 30 day rolling average and a combination of ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA reveals the worst pens in the league in May to be the Rockies (5.30), Angels (5.01), Orioles (5.00), Astros (4.90) and Cardinals (4.87). Attacking the Colorado staff at home? Sure. They do have their best pitcher on the mound, but German Marquez still has a 12.8 BB% this year with a .321 BABIP that might just be the price of doing business at Coors. The 4.47 ERA, 4.32 SIERA and 4.35 xERA aren’t that far apart and LHBs have a .316 wOBA (.335 xwOBA) against him since last year with RHBs around .300. An important point here is that despite being tied for the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (4.75), Texas bats are fairly cheap with Nick Solak the most expensive on DraftKings ($4.5K) and only Adolis Garcia (167 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Joey Gallo (130 wRC+ last 30 days) above $3K on FanDuel.

While Andrew Heaney has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (29.1%, 13.1 SwStr%), he also has a 5.24 ERA. Contact neutral estimators are nearly two runs lower (3.58 SIERA), though including the 11.1% Barrels/BBE projects a 4.56 xERA. A 17.6 HR/FB is a bit more than two points above his career rate and the Giants have a 115 wRC+ and 21.9 HR/FB vs LHP. Brandon Crawford is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. We likely don’t need extra incentive to attack a lefty allowing 9.8% Barrels/BBE with a projected lineup that includes six batters above a .175 ISO vs LHP since 2020 and has the top implied run line on the board (5.04) in Baltimore tonight, but there you have it. Kyle Garlick (117 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be the top value on the board ($3K DK, $2.3K FD).

The Astros are the new team on this list and the Red Sox are interesting here, but Luis Garcia has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (29%, 12.1 SwStr%) with a near league exit velocity and walk and barrel rates. He does have a large split though (LHBs .352 wOBA since 2020), which makes Alex Verdugo (137 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2020) a great value for $3.5K or less on either site. The Dodgers have the second highest implied run line on the board (4.98) because John Gant may have have the most fraudulent ERA in baseball (1.81). His closest estimator is a 4.05 FIP, which is nearly a run below his second lowest estimator (4.97 xERA). He’s sporting a 2.0 K-BB% with a 90.7 mph EV, which seems incredibly dangerous as a visiting pitcher to Dodger Stadium. Every batter in the projected Dodger lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2020. LHBs have a .361 xwOBA against Gant since last year as well. Cody Bellinger has just a 2 wRC+ since returning, but stack whatever lefties Dave Roberts places in the lineup tonight.

Opportunity & Upside in a Spot That Should No Longer Be Feared

High upside spots not belonging to the highest priced pitchers find Bruce Zimmermann (vs Twins), Dane Dunning (at Coors), Eric Lauer (vs Tigers), Marco Gonzales (vs A’s) and Matt Boyd (vs Brewers) tonight. Covering the two surprises on that list first, the Twins have four batters in the projected lineup exceeding a 26 K% vs LHP since last season, while the A’s have four above a 29 K%. Now, remove both of those situations from your memory because both Zimmermann (9.8% Barrels/BBE) and Gonzales (14% Barrels/BBE) have hard contact issues against powerful lineups. In the case of the latter, Gonzales hasn’t pitched since April.

Boyd and Lauer face off against each other in Milwaukee. Boyd being the greatest beneficiary of a slightly deadened ball should come as no surprise, but that he’s allowed half the Barrels (6.4%) and just one-fifth the number of home runs (three) as he did last year in just a couple more innings is a much larger effect than expected. His 13.4 K-BB% is his lowest mark since 2019. The 4.3 HR/FB is unsustainable, but if you give him credit for his actual contact profile a 3.68 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator that isn’t well above four. He’s been tagged for 14 of his 24 runs allowed over his last three starts. Six of eight projected Milwaukee bats exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020. Alternately, the Tigers have four projected batters above a 25 K% vs LHP since last season. Behind a one mph velocity bump from his career rate and a rearrangement of his pitch arsenal (more cuttters and changeups, fewer four-seamers and curveballs), Eric Lauer has a 21.6 K-BB% and 45.9 GB% through 22 innings that would each dwarf his previous career highs. While 9.5% of his contact has been barreled, the exit velocity is still league average and almost exactly his career rate (88.9 mph). Lauer may be slightly interesting within $400 of $8K on either site, while Boyd is certainly more interesting as an SP2 for $2K less than his FanDuel cost on DraftKings.

Dunning has almost alternated between near dominance and destruction with a sinker heavy approach (58.3%) that has generated 56.3% of his contact on the ground and allowed him to strike out 25.4% of batters, despite just a 9.9 SwStr%. The good news here is that his xERA is the only estimators above four and just barely (4.17). With a 15.2 IFFB% and 19.3 LD% to go along with the ground ball rate, a .356 BABIP seems unearned and unsustainable. Facing the Rockies at Coors, especially without Story, is no longer intimidating and Dunning does make an interesting SP2 in GPPs for less than $6K on DraftKings against a projected lineup with just four of eight batters below a 26.9 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Volatility at the Top of the Board on Tuesday

Despite a nearly full 14 game slate, Aaron Nola is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites, while Sandy Alcantara is exactly that much on DraftKings, but $2K less on FanDuel and Tyler Glasnow is the most expensive FanDuel pitcher, but misses the $10K mark by $200 on DraftKings. We should probably also mention Alex Wood ($9.9K on FanDuel), Domingo German (within $200 of $9.5K on either site) and Chris Bassitt (above $9K on either site) among the high priced arms tonight.

The matchup in the Bronx pits Glasnow against German. The former has the highest strikeout rate on the board (36.2%) and there’s no doubt he can put together a start like he did last time out, shutting out the Royals through eight three-hit innings with 11 strikeouts, at any time. He’d also allowed seven home runs over his previous four starts though and walked four on three separate occasions this year. The volatility makes him a wonderful GPP play in tough spots (or perceived tough spots), such as this one, but the Yankees have just a 97 wRC+ with a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year. Overall, you can’t really complain when neither his ERA, nor any of his estimators reach three, but the risk is there (91.4 mph EV). The brand new slider (31.5% usage) gave hitters a brand new look for a while, but it’s really just a marginal pitch (.326 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, four HRs), despite the 41.9 Whiff%. German’s 87.3 LOB% is unsustainable and while he does have some issues with the long ball, which extend back to the beginning of his major league career, nine of his 12 Barrels (8.3% Barrels/BBE) have left the yard (14.5 HR/FB), while his SIERA (3.75) and xERA (3.76) virtually match with the strand rate remaining the outlier here. The 13.5 SwStr% (14.9% over the last 30 days) even suggests the 23.3 K% should improve. Only one batter in the projected Tampa Bay lineup is below a 24.9 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Alcantara’s 3.46 ERA is a bit below traditional estimators like his SIERA, xFIP and FIP, but that all may still be underestimating him. Consider that he’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last seven starts, his 14.1 SwStr% suggests his 24.7 K% still has room to grow and that he’s allowed more home runs (seven) than Barrels (five) this year. Factoring in his contact profile, which includes a 51.8 GB% and 2.9% Barrels/BBE, which may not be sustainable, generates a 2.87 xERA. The negative here is that he faces a quality offense (113 wRC+ vs RHP) with power (15.7 HR/FB vs RHP) that doesn’t strike out a ton (22.4 K% vs RHP) in a park that’s a bit of a wildcard as they move back up to Buffalo. Speaking of park effects, Nola finds himself in the most dangerous park outside Coors tonight. His 4.8 BB% is a career best, while a 28.1 K% and 12.7 SwStr% run just behind last year’s shortened season career highs. The 3.72 ERA is above all his estimators (.306 BABIP, 72.5 LOB%), but he may not be able to ask for much more out of this defense (-14 Runs Prevented). His 3.22 SIERA and 3.09 xERA suggest about half a run improvement with an average defense perhaps. The Reds have just a 22.7 K% vs RHP and a 20.8 HR/FB at home. This is a dangerous spot for a very expensive pitcher without an elite strikeout rate, which suggests an under-weight tendency tonight, unless that’s what everyone else projects to do as well.

Wood allowed more than two runs for the first time last time out (four), but still struck out eight of 25 Dodgers without a walk. Combining a 26.3 K% with 56.8% of his contact on the ground and 6.3% Barrels/BBE, Wood has a 3.15 SIERA and 3.43 xERA that are still nearly a run above his 2.44 ERA (89.4 LOB%), though still results nobody would complain about. At first look, this seems like a tremendous matchup, facing the Angels without Trout or Ohtani in an NL park, but four of eight projected batters are below an 11 K% vs LHP since 2020. Bassitt has gone at least seven innings with at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts. His 3.21 ERA is within half a run of all his estimators and sees improvement when including the contact profile (2.91 xERA & FIP), while he’s struck out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced (26.1%). He’s allowed more than two runs in just one of his last nine starts. He’s in a high upside spot (Mariners 86 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP) in a negative run environment and may be the top value among the high priced arms tonight, while Glasnow is probably still the top overall pitcher on average, despite the potential volatility.

Bottom Of This Order Has Some Value

The Red Sox are at home with hitter friendly weather conditions and have the highest implied run line on the slate (5.58). If you didn’t already have enough incentive to jam Boston bats into your lineup, Drew Smyly’s velocity and strikeout rate (20.8%) are both down this year, while the bombs are up (36.4 GB%, 90.6 mph EV, 21.2 HR/FB, 11.6% Barrels/BBE). Perhaps a bit unfortunate that 11 of 13 Barrels have left the yard, but the 5.27 xERA does nothing to absolve his actual results (5.11 ERA). He doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half and RHBs have a .344 wOBA (.359 xwOBA) against Smyly since last year. The Atlanta bullpen has provided little actual relief (4.76 ERA, 4.50 xFIP last 30 days) as well. The way to differentiate here, might be towards the bottom of the order, where we expect Bobby Dalbec (176 wRC+, .384 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Hunter Renfroe to reside (168 wRC+, .224 ISO). Dalbec costs less than $3K on either site.

Perhaps the Top Offensive Spot on the Board

If there are just three teams above an implied run line on a slate without Coors, you might expect the Yankees and Red Sox to own two of those spots if they’re on the slate. Washington (5.33) might be the surprise. After all, they have just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP and Jeff Hoffman is off his best start since his first one, striking out seven Brewers. However, he walked four in that start and has walked 15 of his last 93. Although his FIP perfectly matches his ERA (4.31), all other estimators are quite a bit higher with four of 23 runs unearned and a 90.7 mph EV with just a 36.6% of his contact on the ground. Considering the positive run environment along with a potential weather boost, according to Weather Edge, Washington bats might be in the top spot on the board. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Hoffman since last season. Juan Soto (167 wRC+. .213 ISO vs RHP since 2020) might be the top overall bat on the board, but just about anyone they place in the lineup is viable here. Should Hoffman see an early exit, a Cincinnati bullpen with a 5.40 ERA and 4.49 FIP over the last 30 days should pose no significant problems either. The one thing to watch here, as with most outdoor games on tonight’s slate, is that there could be some weather issues in this game. Be sure to catch Kevin’s updated forecast later this afternoon.

Jose Urena has a 55.9 GB%, but with just a 15.5 K% and 89.9 mph EV that has still generated 12 Barrels. Only three of them have left the yard, yet his 5.13 xERA is still well above his 4.62 ERA. Other estimators range from a 3.76 FIP to a 5.18 DRA. Since last season, Urena has been torched by LHBs (.393 wOBA, .374 xwOBA). While Jose Ramirez (137 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is the only star left in this lineup, cheaper batters like Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+) and Eddie Rosario (112 wRC+, .224 ISO) should be able to take advantage of these numbers as well. While Hernandez is far from a power hitter, he homered to lead off the game last night and also has three career HRs against Urena over 36 PAs. Lastly, while the Detroit bullpen has improved since shifting Michael Fulmer to compliment Gregory Soto, they still have a 5.34 ERA and 4.69 FIP over the last 30 days, which is near the bottom of the league. Cleveland is tied for the fifth highest implied run line (4.67) on a nine game slate.

Outlier Pitching Performance May Lend Value to Opposing Offense

In what must surely be a misprint, Merrill Kelly’s game log says that he struck out 12 of 25 Dodgers last time out. That brings his strikeout rate up to 26% over the last month with just a 7.9 SwStr%. This essentially gives him near league average numbers in almost every category that makes up his estimators (4.30 SIERA, 4.14 xFIP, 4.37 FIP, 4.22 DRA). The contact profile pushes him a bit higher (4.68 xERA). While Kelly generally does push deep into games, averaging nearly three times through the order, the Dodger performance is an outlier and while LHBs now have a .292 wOBA against him since last season, according to Statcast, the contact profile pushes that up to .360. This is a great spot for a value bat like Alex Dickerson (124 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2020) or a more expensive Brandon Crawford (140 wRC+, .264 ISO) if either are in the top half of the order tonight. While the Giants are currently implied for 4.5 runs, which places them in the middle of the board, Kelly is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days (6.29 ERA, 4.54 xFIP).

An Average Pitcher with Increased Value in a High Upside Spot

High upside spots on the main slate tonight belong to Joe Ross (vs Reds), Triston McKenzie (at Tigers), Marcus Stroman (vs Rockies), German Marquez (at Mets), Mike Minor (at Rays) and Chris Paddack (at Brewers). Despite the marginal size of the slate, you can see there is no shortage of these spots. Most of the damage against Ross has come in just a couple of starts, but he has just a 20.5 K% and the Reds have a 110 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB vs RHP, even if six players in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last year. Ross also costs $8K on DraftKings. Triston McKenzie has a 30.6 K% and five of nine projected Tigers exceed a 24 K% vs RHP, three are above 30%. However, McKenzie has a higher walk rate (20.8%) than ground ball rate (17.4%) and has generated more Barrels (13) than ground balls (12).

The Mets are a new entrant on this list, but the lineup is completely depleted and includes five projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP. Marquez has a .336 BABIP that might just be a part of the Coors experience (.313 career), but the strikeouts are increasing (23.9%, 12.9 SwStr%) and more than half his contact is on the ground (53.1%). He’s allowed just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. The value goes up on the road and especially in this spot in a great park against an empty lineup, though the 12.8 BB% is a concern in any park. Stroman actually has an above average swinging strike rate (11.9%) and that’s up even further over his last five starts (13.7%), though the actual strikeouts are more inconsistent from start to start. It’s nice to know there’s a chance though. A 53.6 GB% has allowed him to keep his Barrels/BBE reasonable (6.4%), despite a 91 mph EV. Estimators are about a run above his 2.73 ERA because five of 21 runs have been unearned. The Rockies have a 59 wRC+ and 7.7 HR/FB on the road with five of nine projected batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020. Stroman and Marquez could be two of the top values, especially on DraftKings, where Marquez is less than $7K, except for the weather forecast, which Kevin currently has coded Orange.

Minor and Paddack get the dome treatment, so at least they don’t have to worry about conditions and while the Rays have a 30.5 K% vs LHP this year, what we do have to worry about with Minor is that they are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (134 wRC+, 12.9 BB%, 21.7 HR/FB last seven days). While strikeouts are up for Mike Minor over the last month (26.5%), the swinging strike rate is actually down to a paltry 9.9% over that span. All of his non-DRA are well below his 5.14 ERA (65.6 LOB%), but none are below four. Eight of 13 Barrels (9.6%) have left the yard. Minor costs less than $8.5K on either site and is viable due to the upside in this spot, but it does carry significant risk by almost every other aspect. Paddack has been a perfectly average pitcher for the Padres (21.9 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, 3.96 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 3.91 DRA, 3.84 xERA) and perhaps that’s what he is, which is absolutely fine for our purposes here. The Brewers have a 77 wRC+ and exceed a 26 K% both at home and vs RHP this year. Five projected batters in their lineup tonight have struck out in more than 24% of plate appearances vs RHP since 2020. At less than $8K, Paddack would seem to have the highest floor among these pitchers, when considering all elements, including weather. One concern would be that Paddack completed six innings for just the first time last time out, but has gone beyond 90 pitches in three of his last six.

Two High Priced Pitchers with Concerns

Trevor Bauer and Tyler Glasnow are your two $10K+ pitchers on Wednesday night and there are some red flags in both starts. In the case of Glasnow, the issues are his own. He’s coming off his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays, striking out just two of 22 batters, but his issues extend further back despite continuing to pile up the strikeouts over the last month (32.5%, 16.4 SwStr%). He’s now allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, has walked four in three of his last seven and is up to a 91.2 mph EV with 9.7% Barrels/BBE on the year. For the season, ERA and estimators are up around three. The upside remains, but the risk is increased. The new slider is no longer fooling everyone. The Royals have a 90 wRC+ vs RHP with an average 23.1 K%, but six of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season.

Glasnow is probably the better value of the two and will likely command a much larger ownership percentage because Trevor Bauer is in Houston (110 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP). has been everything the Dodgers hoped for, even if the 1.98 ERA is a bit below most estimators (.183 BABIP, 88.2 LOB%). Even with eight HRs, he still has just a 2.16 xERA. The one caution might be that his 12.9 SwStr% may not be able to continue supporting a 36.2 K% and that’s going to be tested tonight against a projected lineup where four of the first five batters are below a 16 K% vs RHP since 2020. This may be the one matchup in the league that makes Bauer a pure leverage play with just two high priced pitchers on the slate.

This Prospect is Still a Bit Raw

Logan Gilbert has struck out seven of 32 major league batters with an 11 SwStr% through two starts. Almost league average. He’s walked just two, but has also allowed two HRs with just a 13 GB% and 94.7 mph EV. He’s allowed as many Barrels (three) as ground balls. Command has been his prevailing trait as a prospect, but an extra effort in conditioning suggests a bit more behind his fastball, as he’s averaged 94 mph through his first two starts. None the less, things haven’t been clicking for him yet at the major league level and the Mariners can afford to let him work those issues out, but this also presents an opportunity for daily fantasy players. Gilbert’s prospect status might deter many players from targeting him tonight, especially in a negative run environment, but the A’s do have an implied run line just below five, near the top of the board and current weather conditions call for temperatures around 60 degrees with the wind blowing out to right field near 10 mph, a slight boost for hitters. Everyone in the projected Oakland lineup except Elvis Andrus exceeds a 95 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 and everyone except Andrus and Tony Kemp exceeds a .180 ISO as well. The value bat here, should he find his way to the upper part of the lineup, is Seth Brown (116 wRC+, .284 ISO), who costs just $3.2K on DK and $2.5K on FD.

Top Spot for Affordable Offense

With so many high end pitchers on tonight’s slate, value bats are going to be in high demand tonight and one spot where they’re perplexingly cheap are in Minnesota, especially considering that the Twins own a 5.61 implied run line that tops the board by half a run. Dean Kremer’s 93.5 mph EV is worst on the board among those with more than two starts and batters from either side of the plate are above a .345 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last year. The Twins are projected to have a number of cheap ($4K or less on DraftKIngs, below $3K on FanDuel), productive bats in the lineup against Kremer tonight, starting with the expected leadoff batter, Luis Arraez (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020), who costs just $3.2K on DK ($2.4K on FanDuel). Max Kepler (137 wRC+, .270 ISO) and Alex Krilloff (92 wRC+, .244 ISO) are also affordably expected to appear near the top or in the middle of the lineup. Considering the spot and cost, Twins’ bats are going to be no secret tonight. Players might be able to differentiate on the other side of this matchup just as cheaply, if not more so, with Anthony Santander (136 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since 2020), D.J. Stewart (124 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Cedric Mullins (125 wRC+, .167 ISO). LHBs have a .353 wOBA and .368 xwOBA against Jose Berrios since last year, according to Statcast. Isolated to just 2021, LHBs have a .415 wOBA in 95 PAs against him.