DFS Alerts
Bullpens, BvP, Top Bats and Value Bats
Parks, weather and/or umpiring dictate hitter friendly conditions in three of four parks on the slate tonight and the one lacking features the Dodgers against Merrill Kelly. Players should have no trouble finding bats to use in their daily fantasy lineup, but let’s try and find some advantageous spots anyway. The Blue Jays and Braves are tied for the highest implied run lines on the board (5.3), despite facing the highest and lowest priced pitchers tonight. The worst bullpen on the board is the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days: the Arizona Diamondbacks (6.73 ERA, 5.03 FIP). That and Merrill Kelly’s .361 xwOBA vs LHBs since 2019 explains why the Dodgers have the third highest implied run line on the slate (4.93), despite the only negative run environment.
Looking for BvP advantage? Two batters on the slate have at least a .400 xwOBA or better against the pitcher they are facing tonight with a minimum 15 PAs and both are in Philadelphia. Bryce Harper (.470 xwOBA, 22 PAs) doesn’t have a HR and only one extra-base hit against Sandy Alcantara, but a 94.9 mph EV and just a 13.6 K%. In the same number of PAs, Brian Anderson has five extra-base hits, including two HRs with a 96.4 mph EV (.426 xwOBA) against Vince Velasquez. He’s hit RHP fairly well since 2019 (117 wRC+, .202 ISO) and costs $3K or less on either site, while Velasquez doesn’t have much of a split. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .330 and .347 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019. The Marlins are on the middle of the board at four implied runs, but Velasquez is likely to be a popular pitcher in this matchup. Rostering Miami bats could be a key differentiator and while it’s not a potent offense, you can’t consider this a bad spot for them.
If you’re looking for the pure top hitters on the slate, that’s probably the Ronald Acuna (139 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Freddie Freeman (165 wRC+, .297 ISO) combo. Wil Crowe has faced fewer than 100 batters from either side of the plate in his career, so take this with a bucket of regression, but RHBs and LHBs each exceed a .375 wOBA and xwOBA and .200 ISO against him. You’re probably not regressing that far enough to keep these two bats from having a ton of potential and upside tonight. Those looking for value bats might consider Jacob Stallings (152 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2019) on the opposite side. He’s projected to hit cleanup against Drew Smyly (RHBs .356 wOBA & xwOBA since 2019), has a 142 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and costs less than $3K on either side. On FanDuel, Ozzie Albies (100 wRC+, .189 ISO) costs just $3K.
Difficult Pitching Choices on a Small Slate
Aside from the bullpen game situation for the Dodgers, it’s difficult to advocate fully fading any pitcher when there are only seven available, especially when you need to utilize 28.6% of them on DraftKings. That said, you can make a strong argument for going significantly underweight on Nick Pivetta, the highest priced pitcher on the board tonight. We start with a park that’s been very hitter friendly in the nearly two months the Blue Jays have called it home. The sample size isn’t large, but the boost has been significant, according to Baseball Savant Park Factors. Then, there are Pivetta’s own issues. Without a single walk in his last start, his walk rate still stands at 12.8% for the season. His 24.4 K% is fine, but he has just a 10.1 SwStr% (9.5% over the last month). He has just a 37.1 GB% and 89.8 mph EV, but has allowed just six Barrels (5.6%) with a 21.9 LD%. That feels a bit fluky too. Lastly, the Toronto offense has a 137 wRC+ with a 17.9 HR/FB at home and just a 22.4 K% vs RHP this year.
If we’re not on Pivetta, what kind of pitcher do we want to take a chance on? Unfortunately, the only negative run environment on the slate is in Los Angeles and rostering Merrill Kelly against the Dodgers is highly risky without a lot of potential reward. Philadelphia is oddly the best pitching spot on the slate tonight. His worst start of the season drove Sandy Alcantara’s ERA up from 2.72 to 4.06 in just 13 Dodgers faced last time out. However, six of his nine efforts have been quality starts and consider that his 24.4 K% comes with a 14.4 SwStr% that suggests much more potential and with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), he’s actually allowed two more HRs (six) than Barrels (four). All estimators are still at least a bit below four with his xERA still below three. An increase in strikeouts would drive them down even further. The Phillies have just a 91 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP, while they’re also projected to be without J.T. Realmuto again tonight. Alcantara is the second highest priced pitcher on the slate, but is probably tonight’s top overall arm. Expect players to treat him that way though.
Vince Velasquez is the kind of high upside pitcher (26.4 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) we want to take shots with on a slate like this against an offense with an 84 wRC+ and 19.6 K-BB% against RHP, but again, everybody understands this. He’ll likely be highly owned despite a 93.2 mph EV, seven HRs and 15.3% Barrels/BBE because he costs less than $8K in this matchup with just six other starting pitchers available. The cheapest pitcher on the board on DraftKings is Wil Crowe. A 2.5 mph velocity spike from last season has only pushed his strikeout rate up to 19.1% (8.4 SwStr%), but the Braves have just a 101 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP and he doesn’t really have to do too much to justify his $6.2K price tag today when we’re not expecting any pitcher to really go off. The Braves also have a 31.2 K% over the last week that’s higher than any team playing today. Crowe is not a pitcher we’d normally have any interest in in this spot, but the situation may dictate we go for high priced bats and perhaps go overweight on low priced pitching on a small slate.
All-Star Caliber Pitcher in the Mid-Price Range
J.T. Brubaker certainly doesn’t fit the high priced criteria at less than $8K on either site and he probably doesn’t fit the high upside category either, though the Cardinals do have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP. There are four in the projected lineup for the Cardinals above a 28 K% vs RHP though. However, the main point here is that J.T. Brubaker has been just plain good. He has a 25.5 K% (11.4 SwStr%), 5.6 BB%, 53.8 GB% and 86.7 mph EV. Those are the characteristics of an All-Star pitcher. He won’t sustain the 93.4 LOB%, nor probably the 21.4 HR/FB. Non-FIP estimators are all above three, but within a run of his 2.58 ERA. The negative run environment adds even more to this strong middle of the board value tonight.
Below Average Lineup May Have Value Against These Splits
A good curveball is supposed to be a strong reverse platoon weapon and despite all his faults, Justin Dunn has a good one (.213 xwOBA, 30.9 Whiff% this year), but it hasn’t really aided him against LHBs (.369 wOBA, .417 ISO). These numbers are so bad that they may over-ride a negative run environment and give a below average lineup some value against him tonight. The attraction of a partial Detroit stack that might include Robbie Grossman (109 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019), Jeimer Candelario (94 wRC+) and Nomar Mazara (95 wRC+) is that it might get you not only one of tonight’s high priced arms on FanDuel with room to spare, but potentially two of them on DraftKings. In fact, Niko Goodrum is the only Detroit bat exceeding $4K on DraftKings, while none exceed $3K on FanDuel.
Great Value In Top of the Board Offense
Matt Harvey was BABIP’d in his return to Citi Field, but that’s one of the risks of a 16.6 K% and 7.1 SwStr%. The rest of the profile isn’t terrible (6.3 BB%, 43.9 GB%, 89.5 mph EV, 6.8% Barrels/BBE), but there’s nothing special about any of it either and this is one of the more hitter friendly spots on the slate with batters from either side of the plate between a .359 and .384 wOBA and xwOBA against Harvey since 2019. The Rays swing and miss a lot, but Harvey no longer has the stuff to exploit that weakness and six of nine batters in the projected lineup for Tampa Bay have a 110 wRC+ or higher vs RHP since 2019. Ji-Man Choi (130 wRC+, .210 ISO), Brandon Lowe (140 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Austin Meadows (145 wRC+, .271 ISO) all exceed a .200 ISO as well. Meadows is the highest priced projected Ray on FanDuel ($3.6K), where he’s probably still a solid value, but his DraftKings price is just $200 more, potentially making him one of the top values on the slate. The Rays currently find themselves the rare positions of owning the top implied run line on the board just below five runs (4.93).
Attack These Bullpens on Tuesday Night
The worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days (ERA + FIP + xFIP + SIERA divided by four) belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks (5.17) and although they travel to a very pitcher friendly park for their series against a banged up Dodger lineup, this is certainly a spot players still want to attack with those who remain healthy and Merrill Kelly (the projected starter) should be no deterrent. While batters from either side of the plate are within three points of a .320 wOBA against him since 2019, Statcast bumps LHBs up to a .361 xwOBA over this span. If Matt Beaty (117 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and 189 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall) bats anywhere near the top half of the lineup, he would be a great value at $3.3K on DraftKings or $2.2K on FanDuel.
The Rockies (5.12) aren’t very far behind, though the ERA portion of that (5.54) is likely jacked up a bit by Coors and RHBs only have a .305 wOBA (.308 xwOBA) against Austin Gomber since 2019. San Diego is also a pitcher friendly park. Additionally, the Reds (5.05) are off the board, but the Braves (5.02) are starting Tucker Davidson, a 23 year-old lefty, who has a 21.6 K-BB% through two AAA starts, though FanGraphs projects him with just a 40+ Future Value grade. It feels like Pete Alonso (131 wRC+ last 30 days, 98 mph EV on fly balls and line drives) is the only remaining impact bat in the Mets’ lineup, but he should be worth your daily fantasy dollars in one of the most hitter friendly environments on the slate.
The last bullpen to mention is the Angels (4.97) because along with being one of the more (if not the most) hitter friendly parks on the west coast over the last few years, according to Baseball Savant’s new Park Factors, Andrew Heaney has a career 15.5 HR/FB and has already allowed seven HRs this year. This is actually a spot that justifies some exposure to both sides of this matchup with Heaney’s strikeout rate spiking to 33.6% this year and his cost below $8K on either site, but he still has issues with the long ball when contact is made. Jose Ramirez (137 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Franmil Reyes (113 wRC+, .204 ISO) are the power threats in this lineup and both exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The Most Usable Pitchers in High Upside Spots
On a 14 game slate, there’s no shortage of high upside spots. It’s just a question of which pitchers are usable in these spots. We start with Blake Snell, hosting the Rockies, who have a team 24.4 K% vs LHP this year with four of eight projected batters with at least a 23.5 K% vs LHP since 2019. Snell has a 31 K% (12.7 SwStr%), 52.4 GB% and 86.9 mph EV, but the 15.2 BB%. He has thrown as many as 95 pitches twice, but has only recorded a sixth inning out in one start. There may not be a pitcher in the league who confuses estimators more. You rarely see as large a gap between a SIERA (4.13) and xFIP (3.51) as Snell’s and those aren’t even his highest or lowest estimators. Snell will need extreme efficiency to get you a Quality Start tonight and costs at least $8K on either site.
The Phillies have a 26.6 K% vs RHP this year, but the Marlins haven’t confirmed a starter. If it’s Cody Poteet, he struck out six of 19 Diamondbacks with an impressive 16.9 SwStr% and no walks in his major league debut. The nearly 27 year-old rookie and has never even reached a 20 K% at any level above A ball previous to this year, but has struck out 10 of 22 AAA batters faced this year as well. Of course, the minimum price tag might make him one of the top values on the slate with even marginal competency. John Gant gets the Pirates with half the projected lineup above a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2019, but he has a ridiculous 17.4 BB% this year. Justin Dunn (3.1 K-BB%) faces a projected Detroit lineup that only has two batters at the bottom above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Matt Harvey (16.6 K%, 7.1 SwStr%) gets the strikeout prone, but dangerous Rays (105 wRC+ vs RHP) in Baltimore. Zach Plesac (17.5 K%, but 11.9 SwStr%) gets the Angels and the projected lineup without Mike Trout contains six batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019.
Spencer Turnbull may be the most useful pitcher here though. He costs less than $7.5K on either site for his matchup in Seattle and six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Outside of starts at Fenway and Yankee Stadium, Turnbull has struck out 18 of 69 against the Royals and Pirates with two Quality Starts. He combines the matchup upside with a 51.3 GB% and 5.4 BB% this year and the 3.91 ERA matches fairly well with estimators through five starts.
No Easy Answers at the Top of the Board Tonight
There are four pitchers priced above $9.5K on both sites ($10K on FanDuel) tonight. Brandon Woodruff is the most expensive in his matchup with the Royals. His strikeout rate is up a couple of points from last year to 33.2% (14.1 SwStr%) and his Barrels/BBE have gone from 7.2% to 4.6%, while his ERA sits at 1.64 and all estimators are below three through eight starts. Woodruff has also struck out 21 of his last 51 with a 20.9 SwStr% though. The Royals have a 93 wRC+ with an average 23.4 K% vs RHP. This is a fairly neutral spot for Woodruff.
Second most expensive is Zack Wheeler. Fewer ground balls (47%) is a very acceptable tradeoff for more strikeouts (26.7%, 11.3 SwStr%) for daily fantasy players, but the overall package looks even better because Zack Wheeler is completing three trips through the lineup on average this year. Five of his eight starts have been quality starts and Wheeler has also been an exceptional contact manager (86.4 mph EV) for several seasons now. The Marlins (84 wRC+, 26.3 K% vs RHP) add even more value to this matchup. Six of eight batters in the projected Miami lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019.
Lance Lynn and Julio Urias are in somewhat tougher spots. Lynn has gone just five innings in three straight starts off the IL, but his velocity was back up last time and he struck out nine of 24 Twins with 111 pitches. That pushes his season strikeout rate up above 30% (12.6 SwStr%), while he’s only allowed an earned run in two of his six starts (there have been some unearned runs). The 29.6 GB% is well below his career rate and he’s been a bit fortunate that just two of seven Barrels (8.1%) have left the yard. He loses value if he’s not going deep into games and the Twins have a 104 wRC+ with a 22.7 K% vs RHP. Urias has a 26.9 K% (13.4 SwStr%) with just seven walks and all estimators are within a quarter run of his 3.26 ERA. He’s also averaging 24 batters per start and while Dodger Stadium is already a negative run environment, Weather Edge suggests a further environmental boost tonight. The biggest issue is that Arizona has a 117 wRC+ and 11.3 K-BB% vs LHP. No player in the projected lineup with more than 32 PAs vs LHP since 2019 exceeds a 23 K% against them.
This is tough and maybe paying down is even the right move. There shouldn’t be massive ownership concerns on this slate. Wheeler probably serves as the best value on FanDuel and your best bet at a Quality Start and the matchup upside may push him over the top on DraftKings as well, but it probably wouldn’t surprise anybody if any of these four came out on top tonight. Any of them are fine, though none seem absolutely necessary. It may even be possible to roster two of them on DraftKings with only three teams currently above 4.5 implied runs tonight.
A Potential Repeat of Last Week's Slugfest
When J.A. Happ and Dallas Keuchel faced off against each other in a game televised on MLB Network, the studio heads calling the game were shocked that both pitchers were lit up because Wins and ERA. They noted how well both pitchers had been throwing the ball, but anyone who understands how ERA estimators work was not surprised at all. Both pitchers were running well below their estimators and were facing offenses that eat up LHP. Even now, with both ERAs for both pitchers moving over four after that last start, all estimators except Happ’s 4.19 FIP are still even higher. The Twins have a 110 wRC+ vs LHP and the White Sox have a 141 wRC+ vs LHP. Oddsmakers have both teams among the top four at 4.75 implied runs tonight. Perhaps we won’t see 20 runs put on the board, but nobody should be shocked if offenses prevail again in this spot.
Nelson Cruz (211 wRC+, .406 ISO vs LHP since 2019) homered for the sixth time in 61 PAs against Keuchel in that game. Tim Anderson (161 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jose Abreu (162 wRC+, .265 ISO) both exceed a .400 xwOBA against Happ. Those are the obvious lineup cogs tonight though. Both lineups should be loaded with RH power and both pitchers allow a .330+ xwOBA to batters from that side of the plate since 2019. Further, the two lowest strikeout rates on the board belong to Keuchel (10%) and Happ (14.7%). Supplement the obvious names with Andrew Vaughn (207 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP) and Kyle Garlick (134 wRC+, .288 ISO). Neither reaches even $2.5K on either site tonight.
You Wouldn't Have Considered This a Month Ago
Two pitchers who aren’t extremely high priced or in high upside matchups, but still merit serious consideration tonight are Adbert Alzolay and Madison Bumgarner. Both are pitching in very pitcher friendly and potentially weather aided environments tonight. The former has a 29.3 K% and 14.3 SwStr%, the latter the second highest number on the board tonight. Concerns would be workload (fewer than 95 pitches each start) and contact profile (38.5 GB%, 90.2 mph EV), while facing an offense with just a 21.8 K% vs RHP. However, Alzolay has still compiled a quality start in two of his last three outings and the wind blowing in from right should help Alzolay’s sizeable platoon issues with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber really the only LHBs he needs to be concerned about. Lastly, while the Nationals are one of the more contact prone offenses, they still have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and Alzolay costs $8.1K or less on either site.
Bumgarner is facing the Dodgers, which would not only have screamed fade, but also stack against only month ago, but the big lefty has been on fire, while the Dodger lineup keeps losing bats. Not only has Bumgarner allowed just three runs over his last 30 innings with just two walks and 34 strikeouts (12.4 SwStr%), but his fastball velocity has increased with just about every start. He averaged 92.6 mph in a game for the first time since early 2019 last time out. While many rightfully expected hard contact issues would be more problematic for him outside San Francisco, Bumgarner has been below a 90 mph EV for the first three times this season in his last three starts too. Perhaps you want to look at xERA for him, which includes the contact profile. That’s below his actual 4.12 ERA at 3.40. The flip side of that coin is that he hasn’t faced many strong or hot offenses this season (at least against LHP), but the Dodgers may not be that either right now, despite the addition of Albert Pujols. Among projected batters tonight, only the first six have more than 11 PAs vs LHP since 2019 and three of them are above a 25 K% against southpaws over that span. Suddenly, an $8.5K Bumgarner may be one of the better plays on the board tonight.
A Bullpen You Might Not Have Known Was This Bad
It’s only a nine game slate, but all of the worst bullpens are in play and for the first time this year that doesn’t necessarily include the Tigers. When you add up ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP over the last 30 days and divide by four, the Tigers are still plenty bad (4.85), but there are several teams worse and four of them over five in action tonight. The worst bullpens over the last month have been the Rockies (5.23), Diamondbacks (5.22), Braves (5.22) and Angels (5.10). The Rockies may not be the ideal group to attack among the four because they are away from Coors, in a negative run environment in San Diego, have a competent starting pitcher on the mound (Jon Gray) and the opposing lineup is missing key bats. The Diamondbacks are facing the Dodgers in L.A., but this may not be the optimal spot either, as Madison Bumgarner has been on fire, it’s a negative run environment and the Dodgers, who are much better against RHP, are missing a few key bats as well.
That leaves us with the Braves and Angels. Atlanta is surely the surprise disappointment here and that may give daily fantasy players who realize this a bit of an edge. After all, the Mets are closer to the bottom of the board than the top at 3.64 implied runs. Max Fried is considered one of the Braves’ top starters, but he hasn’t been that this year. The Mets’ lineup is going to look ugly when released, but the majority of missing bats are left-handed. It should still contain Pete Alonso (126 wRC+, .308 ISO vs LHP since 2019), James McCann (146 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Kevin Pillar (111 wRC+, .223 ISO). You may want to beware McCann’s 25 wRC+ over the last month, but RHBs do have a .330 wOBA against Fried since 2019 and Atlanta is one of the more positive run environments in the league.
Patrick Sandoval makes his first start for the Angels. In 83.1 major league innings, he’s struck out 23% of batters with a 10 BB%, but an impressive 13.2 SwStr%. There’s some upside here and he only costs $5.2K on DraftKings, but with a high of 52 pitches and just 7.1 innings on the season, we can expect the pen to get involved early and this has become one of the more hitter friendly west coast parks in recent years. Jose Ramirez (139 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2019) is the key here. As a switch hitter, he may get turned around after a couple of plate appearances and most of the allure here is how friendly this park has become for LH power. Not as advantageous for Jordan Luplow, but he mashes LHP (167 wRC+, .337 ISO) and costs no more than $3.1K on either site. The Cleveland offense is smack in the middle of the board at 4.18 implied runs.
This Pitcher Has Faced a Tough Schedule, But That Changes Tonight
If you’re not utilizing a high end pitching option tonight or even if you’re looking for compliment on DraftKings, your attention should be directed towards Seattle for the only other high upside spots on the board when the Tigers take on the Mariners. Casey Mize has specific issues with LHBs (career .390 wOBA, .273 ISO) and the Seattle projected lineup has a few marginal ones with some power, but it also includes six batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Mize has been more ground balls (52.2%) than strikeouts (16.5%, 8.7 SwStr%) and is probably someone you want to roster some of those LHBs against in several lineups rather than plug into your pitching spot. At $7K, he’s probably not cheap enough to play solely on the upside in the Seattle lineup tonight. His opponent, however…
A look at Yusei Kikuchi’s game log will illustrate that he has faced only the best offenses vs LHP this year (yes, even the Orioles qualify by wRC+), which then makes his 4.30 ERA and 25.6 K% (13.3 SwStr%) look a lot better in retrospect, especially considering that he’s sustained last year’s velocity. For the second year in a row, more than half his contact (51.7%) has been on the ground again too, while his walk rate is down three points. Finally facing an inferior offense, the 22.6 HR/FB should simmer down, as seven of his 10 Barrels (8.5%) have left the yard and we may even see a reduction in exit velocity (90.7 mph). The Tigers have a 55 wRC+, 33.8 K% and 2.6 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Thanks to that tough luck schedule, Kikuchi still costs less than $8K on DraftKings. The FanDuel price is a bit sharper at $9K, but he’s probably your best bet for a Quality Start beyond Cole and Darvish tonight.
Top Pitchers in Top Spots
Gerrit Cole is the easy answer to almost all pitching questions on this slate. He’s struck out 40.8% of batters with a 15.8 SwStr% and even has his highest ground ball rate since leaving Pittsburgh (41.7%). Maybe some of what he’s doing is not sustainable (85.4 LOB%, 6.3 HR/FB), but a 2.92 DRA is his only estimator above two! The Rangers do have a 102 wRC+ and 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 27.1 K% and a 70 team wRC+ over the last week. An open roof might help provide some incentive towards going under-weight on Cole because Statcast Park Factors suggest the run environment increases significantly in this case, but otherwise, this is the best pitcher in one of the highest upside matchups.
The only other pitcher to reach $10K or even exceed $9.1K on either site is Yu Darvish. A more than one mph reduction in velocity has not been detrimental to the surface results for Darvish. A 31.2 K% and 2.08 ERA are right in line with last year. However, the 11.8 SwStr% is barely league average and a more than two point drop off and a 30.6 GB% is a career low by more than five points. These are not deal breakers, but just aspects to be aware of. An 86.9 mph EV and 6.3% Barrels/BBE are still in line with career rates. Estimators are just a bit higher than last year with a drop in BABIP (.243) and bump in strand rate (88.1%) that are unlikely to last. The Rockies don’t strike out as much as the Rangers (22.4% vs RHP this year), but offer an exceptional matchup for Darvish in terms of run prevention (69 wRC+, 73 wRC+ on the road, 74 wRC+ vs RHP). San Diego is also one of the most negative run environments in baseball and Weather Edge suggests it may be even more pitcher friendly tonight. Darvish has not been Cole this year, but is certainly more than rosterable here and fine as a leverage play if ownership projections suggest something overwhelming tonight.
Adding that Walker Beuhler also costs $10K on DraftKings, which was missed in the original post. With the velocity on his fastball down more than a mile per hour, it has looked at times that Buehler has been compensating by throwing it less, but that’s not been consistent, as he’s still using his four seamer more than 50% of the time and the result has been a .344 xwOBA with four HRs. The cutter has been a problem too though (.399 xwOBA, two HRs). The strikeouts haven’t suffered (27.6%, 12.7 SwStr%), but he’s now allowed 16 Barrels (13.4%) with eight of them leaving the yard. The Diamondbacks are missing a few bats and have just a 91 wRC+ vs RHP, but only two batters in the projected lineup exceed a 23.1 K% vs RHP and one of them has fewer than 50 PAs. Like Darvish, Buehler is in a strong run prevention spot in a favorable run environment, but is more of a leverage play based on projected ownership.
Strikeouts & Velocity Down, Fly Balls & Exit Velocity Up
In general, the Milwaukee Brewers aren’t anybody’s idea of a competent offense, but this changes when they’re facing a LHP as they are tonight. Their wRC+ vs southpaws is 114 with a 15.3 HR/FB and Drew Smyly should be supplying an ample amount of fly balls tonight. The strikeouts have disappeared (19.6%) for Smyly behind a 1.5 mph velocity drop from last year, while the ground ball rate (32.1%) has reverted nearly 10 points from last year, more closely in line with his career rate. With his exit velocity (91.8 mph) also a career high, his season has resulted in disaster. Nine of 10 Barrels (12.7%) leaving the yard is a bit unfortunate, but all of his estimators are around five or higher. In some case, much higher. Even including last year’s two month resurgence, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019. For some inexplicable reason, Tyrone Taylor’s price tag still remains no higher than $2.3K on either site. He has a 142 wRC+ and .211 ISO vs LHP and a 121 wRC+ overall over the last 30 days. The Milwaukee lineup does not contain a lot of proficient bats over the long term against southpaws, but it will include a lot of cheap bats against a struggling pitcher. None of the projected starters reach $3K on FanDuel and only Kolten Wong reaches $4K on DraftKings. At just 4.2 implied runs, the Brewers find themselves in the middle of the board tonight.
Five HRs and a 98.4 MPH EV Against Tonight's Starting Pitcher
Sometimes batters can run up enough PAs against a pitcher over a short enough period of time that we may have enough data to begin forming a conclusion. For instance, Nelson Cruz came into his matchup with Dallas Keuchel the other day with five HRs in 58 PAs and he did, in fact, homer again. Just 14 PAs is generally not a large enough sample to conclude anything, but the numbers are just so loud in this matchup that they demand your attention. Mitch Moreland has faced Matt Shoemaker just 14 times in his career and has homered five times with two doubles (98.4 mph EV). The BvP aspect isn’t the only thing that makes this an enticing matchup though. Twice in six starts this year, Shoemaker has failed to strike out a single batter and this Oakland lineup hits the ball hard. Eight of nine batters in the projected lineup (excluding Elvis Andrus) exceed a 92.5 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year and have at least a 100 wRC+ and .192 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Exclude Jed Lowrie and those numbers jump up above 115 and .205, while the remaining seven are also above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. LHBs have a .347 wOBA against Shoemaker since 2019 and while RHBs have just a .277 wOBA, Statcast drives them up to a .333 xwOBA. The A’s are implied for just 4.25 runs, which places them in the middle of the board, which seems more a function of park effects than anything else, but most of their numbers were compiled playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. The Minnesota bullpen also has a major league worst 5.32 FIP over the last 30 days. The only negative here is that three of the four projected LHBs in the Oakland lineup are all first base eligible, but make sure lineups secure plenty of exposure to LH Oakland bats tonight. This is a great spot for them.