DFS Alerts

Clayton Kershaw had a bounce back year and struck out 13 Brewers last time out

Clayton Kershaw turned the clock back to 2017 with his highest strikeout rate (28.1%) and K-BB (24.4%) since that year, while setting a career high 53 GB%. So while his 17.4 HR/FB was the second highest mark of his career, next to last year’s 18.5 HR/FB, it was a bit less of a problem with more than half of his contact on the ground. Kershaw still allowed eight HRs and 12 Barrels (8.0% Barrels/BBE), despite an 87.8 mph EV that’s about average though. Estimators were about a run above his 2.16 ERA due to a .232 BABIP and 82.5 LOB%, but all still exceptionally below three and a half. Against the Brewers, Kershaw took a big chunk out of the narrative about him being unable to pitch in the post-season. He struck out 13 of the 27 batters he faced through eight innings of three hit shutout ball. He’s going to be facing a slightly better lineup tonight. One that certainly doesn’t have Ryon Healy batting cleanup. The Padres have a 106 wRC+ with a 23.2 K% and 16.8 HR/FB vs LHP. In Kershaw’s favor though, Globe Life Field in Texas has played like the most pitcher friendly park in this round. It’s only been a game or two, but the balls have been flying out of the other parks in afternoon game, while Barrels are dying in outfielder gloves in Texas so far. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher at $10.3K on FanDuel because he is the best pitcher on the board.

The Rays have a board high 26.3 K% vs RHP

Deivi Garcia was not needed as the Yankees made quick work of the Indians. The top pitching prospect for the Yankees struck out at least six in five of his six starts and exactly six in four of them for a 22.6 K%, while walking just six (4.1%), but with just one-third of his contact on the ground and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, which led to six HRs as 60% of his Barrels left the yard. While all of his estimators were below his 4.98 ERA (65.5 LOB%), none were below four. In fact, a 4.15 FIP (12.2 HR/FB) was the most optimistic with remaining estimators around four and a half. Garcia still makes for an interesting upside GPP play tonight. Consider that the Rays have a 26.3 K% vs RHP that’s the highest split on the board by more than two full points today. Another important factor is that Garcia wasn’t treated with caution in his six starts, throwing at least 95 pitches in half of them and averaging 24.3 batters faced. While leashes are generally shorter in the post-season, the Yankees being up 1-0 in the series could give a just a bit of extra wiggle room tonight. Garcia is not the safest play, sitting on the middle of the board at $8.5K on FanDuel, but he does have some upside in this spot and is capable of giving us some length.

Alex Bregman has a 197 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019 and a .506 xwOBA against Sean Manaea

The ball was flying out of Dodger Stadium on Monday afternoon and with similar conditions expected today, perhaps we should expect similar results. While Sean Manaea has estimators much lower than his 4.50 ERA with a 50.3 GB% and board low 3.6 BB%, he did allow three HRs and five Barrels over his last two starts, ending the season with a 90.6 mph EV. Manaea has also done fairly well against RHBs since last season (.279 wOBA, .299 xwOBA), but you’re not going to find many poor pitchers starting the second game of a post-season series. While the entire Houston offense took a step backward this season, Alex Bregman still has a 197 wRC+ and .362 ISO vs LHP since 2019 and while BvP numbers can be unreliable (unless we’re talking about Ji-Man Choi’s ownership of Gerrit Cole of course), Bregman has three HRs and a .506 xwOBA in 29 career PAs against Manaea according to Statcast, the only batter with multiple HRs against the pitcher he is facing today.

LHBs have a board high .344 xwOBA vs Sandy Alcantara since 2019

A 22.7 K% for Sandy Alcantara is a career high, including nine of 27 Yankees in his last regular season start. If he can combine an average strikeout rate with a strong ground ball rate (49.1% this year), he’ll be another weapon in an up and coming Miami rotation. The 3.00 ERA is a bit of a fluke, as eight of 22 runs were unearned, but he also stranded just 63.9% of runners through seven starts. It balances out with most estimators were right around four. Against the Cubs, he pitched 6.2 innings of one run ball, striking out four of 27 batters, walking three and allowing three hits as well. He’ll likely have a tougher time against one of the best offenses in baseball against RHP. In fact, the Braves have the highest implied run line on the board at just under five, while no other offense is above four and a half. In addition, LHBs have a .344 xwOBA (.330 wOBA) against Alcantara since 2019, which is the worst split on the board. This makes Freddie Freeman the top overall bat on the board today. The potential NL MVP has a 171 wRC+ and .302 ISO vs RHP since last season and finished up the regular season with a 213 wRC+ over its last 30 days. Freeman also Barreled 14.7% of his contact this season, his highest mark in the Statcast era.

Strikeouts are king and Tyler Glasnow generates more than anyone on the board today (38.2%)

Tyler Glasnow struck out a board high 38.2% of batters this season and at least eight in seven of his last eight starts. While a 9.2 BB% and 90.4 mph EV are drawbacks, the strikeout rate has been high enough to negate some of those issues. Finishing with a 4.08 ERA, he allowed as many Barrels as HRs (11), which strongly suggests HR regression. All of his non-FIP estimators were more than a half run below his actual results, including a 3.13 xERA that includes his Statcast contact profile. He continued that strikeout streak against the Blue Jays, whiffing eight more with two solo HRs the only damage against him. He faced the Yankees three times this season, struggling his first time out, but striking out 17 of the last 44 Yankees he faced with just one HR over 11.2 innings. While it’s a tough choice between he and Framber Valdez when considering tonight’s top overall arm, Glasnow is $400 less on FanDuel and strikeouts are king in Daily Fantasy.

An Elite One Off Bat

Opposing starter Sandy Alcantara has wide splits, and the Marlins starter allowed a .215 wOBA to RHBs and a .369 wOBA to LHBs this season. He had a 13% walk rate against left-handed bats, and it’s almost a lock that Freeman reaches base a few times in this game. He is absolutely dialed in right now and is the first hitter in my lineups this afternoon. After all, he hit .375 with a 1.426 OPS in the month of September.

Tangible GPP Upside

Tyler Glasnow showed no nerves in his playoff debut with eight strikeouts in six innings, and that gives him nine consecutive starts with at least seven strikeouts. He posted a 38% strikeout rate that ranked third in MLB this year behind only Bieber and deGrom. That’s pretty good. Now, a matchup against the Yankees and his walk issues mean that there is risk here, but there is no doubt that he is the upside GPP choice on this four game slate.

Playoff Experience Matters

One of my favorite GPP strategies today will be to stack the Astros. They go under-owned even on shorter slates because most people simply don’t LIKE the Astros (for obvious reasons). Well, this team seems to find another gear in the playoffs, and they have gotten healthy at the right time. They are going to put the ball in play against Chris Bassitt, and while Bassitt has been great of late, I’ll side with the playoff experience of this Houston team. Springer is my favorite overall bat for his combination of safety and upside, while Bregman is also an elite target. Michael Brantley doesn’t break the bank and is a reasonable salary relief option for your stack, as well.

The Clear SP1 Choice

While I like Snell in tournaments, Cole is clearly the SP1 option to use on this short slate. After scuffling during the early portion of this shortened season, Cole has hit his stride at the right time. He has a 47/5 K/BB ratio over his last five starts, and he posted a 1.00 ERA in September. The home run ball can still bite him at times, but it’s a mild concern on a night where he should be allowed to go super deep into the ball game with this being the first game of a series with no off days.

Upside Against A Tough Lineup

Blake Snell has not thrown more than six innings in any game this season, and the Rays tend to have a quick hook with him. However, I expect that he will be allowed to go as long as necessary if he is pitching well given that this is potentially the first of five games in as many nights. No team will want to expend their entire bullpen in Game 1 with the lack of off days during these Division Series. Snell is certainly stretched out after going for 100+ pitches twice in September, so that is not a concern. There’s plenty of upside in his left arm, even against a percolating Yankees lineup.

A One Day Delay Is No Problem

Given the way today’s slate lays out, I absolutely love Darvish as my SP1 choice. Darvish has lowered his walk rate from 12% to 8% to 4% over the last three seasons, to go along with his massive strikeout upside and elite overall numbers. The Marlins took Game 1, putting the Cubs into must win mode here. Their bullpen is one of the most inconsistent ones on this slate, meaning Darvish should have a much long leash in this one. I trust him a lot more than Flaherty, and Darvish is my clear cut SP1.

Offense Is Coming Alive

The Cardinals had a foot and a half through the door to the NLDS last night, taking a 6-2 lead into the 6th inning, twelve outs away from putting Slam Diego on ice for 2020. They had largely held both Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado in check, at which time Mike Schildt made the bone-headed decision to bring in wild lefty Genesis Cabrera to face the bottom of the San Diego order. Cabrera has zero idea where the ball is going when he throws it. Well, he walked both the #8 and the #9 hitters, which put runners on base for the big boppers for the Padres. Back-to-back home runs from Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado followed, and Slam Diego came to life. The Padres have all the momentum right now. This game is clearly the spot to look for offense today, as Jack Flaherty hasn’t been the same this year, making the Padres power hitters an upside stack in this spot.

Clayton Kershaw turned the clock back to 2017 with his highest strikeout rate (28.1%) and K-BB (24.4%) since that year, while setting a career high 53 GB%. So while his 17.4 HR/FB was the second highest mark of his career, next to last year’s 18.5 HR/FB, it was a bit less of a problem with more than half of his contact on the ground. Kershaw still allowed eight HRs and 12 Barrels (8.0% Barrels/BBE), despite an 87.8 mph EV that’s near average though. Estimators were about a run above his 2.16 ERA due to a .232 BABIP and 82.5 LOB%. While the Kershaw of half a decade ago is not returning, this is still a nice rebound, proving he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league. The Brewers were more potent against LHP this year (105 wRC+, 17 HR/FB), though still striking out a quarter of the time (24.9%). You’re really only looking at three bats in the projected lineup above a .180 ISO vs LHP since 2019 though, and one of them, Ryan Braun, left last night’s game with back issues. At $9.8K, Kershaw is just the third most expensive pitcher on the board and a strong pivot against higher priced arms in one of the most negative run environments in baseball in a matchup with some upside.

Tim Anderson should be a top bat no matter who the A's decide to go with

While we’re not yet sure what the A’s decide to do, Tim Anderson is likely to be one of the top overall bats on the board either way. If they go with the right-handed Mike Fiers, RHBs have a .321 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him, while Anderson has a 120 wRC+ and .152 ISO against same handed pitching since 2019. If they decide to go with the lefty, Sean Manaea, while RHBs have just a .279 wOBA and .299 xwOBA against him since last season, Anderson has destroyed southpaws over that same span (171 wRC+, .264 ISO). Either way the A’s decide to go, Anderson has an advantage and projects well. He isn’t cheap ($4K on FanDuel), but should be worth the pay up.

Adam Wainwright has struggled against LHBs (.344 wOBA since 2019)

Adam Wainwright has a 20.6 K% that’s second worst on the board, but with just a 5.7 BB%, while completing six innings in eight of 10 starts. His 3.15 ERA was about a run below estimators due to a .247 BABIP, but Wainwright was only supposed to be a back of the rotation piece this year. The Cardinals certainly would have signed for estimators in the low fours. However, with plenty of tough pitching across the board, Wainwright’s .344 wOBA/.366 xwOBA against LHBs since 2019 is the worst split on the board and makes him one of the pitching candidates to attack. The top LHB for the Padres has been Trent Grisham, projected to be in the leadoff spot. Grisham has a 112 wRC+ and .204 ISO vs RHP since last season and costs a reasonable $3.4K on FanDuel. While quite a few Padres struggled through September, Grisham had a 124 wRC+ over the last 30 days of the season and Barreled 11.1% of his contact this year.