DFS Alerts
Lucas Giolito combines strikeouts (34.2%) with great contact management (4.5% Barrels/BBE)
Lucas Giolito has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) in 16.2 innings since his no-hitter, but with 24 strikeouts. The major culprit seems to be the strand rate gods abandoning him over this stretch (52.6%). For the season, Giolito not only has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball (34.2%), but his contact profile has been excellent (4.5% Barrels/BBE, 10.6 HR/FB), which has his 2.80 xERA and 2.75 FIP below his 3.43 ERA with a nearly matching SIERA (3.41) and DRA (3.39). The Twins have a 110 wRC+ and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP. A 57 point reverse split for Giolito since last season is a minor deterrent here against a predominantly RH lineup, but they still only have a .300 wOBA against him since the beginning of 2019. The Twins also have a 24.9 K% vs RHP this year, so there should be enough strikeouts to keep Giolito as a viable alternative to higher priced pitching tonight. At $9.6K, he’s only the fourth most expensive arm on the board.
RHBs have punished Caleb Smith since last season (.258 ISO)
Caleb Smith has faced just 27 batters this year (seven walks, six strikeouts) and his career 26.9 GB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE cause some skepticism that he can succeed outside of significant power suppressing parks like Miami. The Angels have just two dominant bats against LHP with a 90 team wRC+, but 21.6 K% against them. RHBs have a .330 wOBA, but also a .258 ISO against Smith since 2019, due to his extreme fly ball tendencies. As a result, Mike Trout (.388 wOBA, .265 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Anthony Rendon (.421 wOBA, .386 ISO) are two of the top bats on the slate tonight. Both are above a 150 ISO over the last month. Rendon, though, may be the superior value, as he costs $700 less on FanDuel tonight.
Marcell Ozuna has a .387 ISO vs LHP since 2019
Keegan Akin struck out eight of 23 Yankees without allowing a run despite four walks two starts back. Last time out, they knocked him out after seven batters. Not a prospect of much note, Akin has an impressive 26.2 K% through 13.2 innings, but has struggled with control (13.1 BB%). A 4.61 ERA is somewhat in line with estimators in this small sample, though he’s been fortunate that just one of his three Barrels has left the yard. The Braves have just an 86 wRC+ and 26.1 K% vs LHP, but with a 16.9 HR/FB. They certainly have RH power in the lineup though and batters from that side have a .375 wOBA (.341 xwOBA) against Akin so far. Marcell Ozuna has a .405 wOBA and .387 ISO against southpaws since 2019 and also a 192 wRC+ in the last 30 days overall. For the season, Ozuna has smashed baseballs for a 93.3 mph EV with 14.6% Barrels/BBE and costs less than $4K on FanDuel tonight. At 5.67 runs, the Braves are one of just four offenses above five implied runs on tonight’s board.
RHBs have punished Tarik Skubal (.406 wOBA)
Tarik Skubal has struggled with control (10.7 BB%) with just a quarter of his contact on the ground (24.5%) and a 91.4 mph EV. That’s led to 10.2% Barrels/BBE. The good news is that he’s faced a lot of offenses that are tough on lefties (Cardinals, Twins twice, White Sox) and estimators are all more than a run below his ERA, while a 22.7 K% is league average. The bad news is that those estimators are all still above five. The Royals have been league average against LHP (100 wRC+), lacking power (10.9 HR/FB) and strikeouts (21.5 K%). RHBs have smashed Skubal so far (.406 wOBA, .396 xwOBA) and one of the few Royals with some power is Hunter Dozier. In 152 PAs since last season, Dozier has a .408 wOBA and .265 ISO vs LHP. He has an overall 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs just $3.2K on FanDuel.
Jacob deGrom (21.2 SwStr%) has a better matchup than it may seem
Jacob deGrom has a 37.8 K% and 21.2 SwStr%. If his SwStr% were his K%, he’d sit near the middle of tonight’s board. Name an important category and he probably leads the slate: K%, SwStr%, xwOBA (.249), xERA (2.41), ERA (1.67), SIERA (2.71), xFIP (2.44), DRA (2.39) and FIP (1.96). Most of them are even by a large margin. The Phillies are down Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto from an offense that only has a 98 wRC+ and 12.9 HR/FB vs RHP in the first place. Among those in the projected lineup, only Bryce Harper is above a .345 wOBA or .200 ISO vs RHP since last season and even he has slumped his way to just a 90 wRC+ over the last month. This is a better matchup than it may seem for the top pitcher in the National League, who should be the top pitcher on the board, $200 more than Gerrit Cole on FanDuel.
Dustin May scratched Wednesday; Brusdar Graterol to start in his place
May has been scratched Wednesday and will be replaced by another right-hander in Brusdar Graterol. Not too much changes here, but make sure to remove May from any early slate lineups.
Other tagged players: Brusdar Graterol
Giants-Mariners officially postponed Tuesday
It’s official now, so make sure to swap out anyone you have rostered from this game.
Giants-Mariners likely to be cancelled Tuesday due to air quality issues
The Giants-Mariners game is likely to be cancelled due to air quality issues in Seattle. The Giants are reportedly already planning on heading home shortly, so if you have players rostered from this game, swap them out! We’ll provide an update when it’s official.
LH Value Options in a Great Matchup
The Arizona bats remain cheap across the industry and they find themselves in a good matchup tonight against Julio Teheran. I am particularly targeting lefties as Teheran has allowed a .383 wOBA and .365 ISO to LH hitters this year. Kole Calhoun tops the list with his team leading .353 wOBA and .274 ISO. Josh VanMeter is minimum salary on multiple sites and Josh Rojas presents another salary saving option.
Other tagged players: Josh VanMeter, Josh Rojas
Eugenio Suarez (paternity) scratched Tuesday
Suarez has been scratched from Tuesday’s lineup due to the upcoming birth of his child. Jesse Winker has moved up to the cleanup spot in the order while Freddy Galvis will now enter the lineup and bat 7th.
A 7.50 xFIP and 13.7% K Rate to Target
Mike Trout and his friends have a matchup against Madison Bumgarner who has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year. Bumgarner brings a 7.50 xFIP, 13.7% K rate and 8.9% BB rate into tonight. He has been lit up for a .444 wOBA and .430 ISO against RH batters this season.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton A 92.5 mph EV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE will play up at Coors
Antonio Senzatela impressed through the first month of the season, but has reverted over his last four starts. He’s struck out just nine of 98 batters with six walks, six HRs and a 91.2 mph EV. In his defense, while three of those starts were on the road, they all were against either the Padres or Dodgers. His 14.8 K% for the season is still higher than last year’s mark, while his 9.9 K-BB% exactly triples 2019’s 3.3%. All of his estimators are around a run above his 3.69 ERA due to an 86.5 LOB%, countered a bit by a 24 HR/FB. The A’s have a 106 wRC+, more due to an 11.9 BB% than anything else, though the majority of batters in the projected lineup are above a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Matt Olson is your top dog (.381 wOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and potential top overall bat on the slate for less than $4K on FanDuel. LHBs have a .375 wOBA and .197 ISO against Senzatela since last year. Olson has a 92.3 mph EV and 12.5% Barrels/BBE this season that should play up at Coors.
Yu Darvish has allowed more than one run just twice
Yu Darvish allowed more than a single run for the first time since his first start last time out, but still struck out nine and allowed only two hits. His three walks were a season high though. He sports a board high 33.6 K% with just a 5.1 BB% and has struck out at least eight in four straight starts, completing six innings in eight straight as well. An 88.1 LOB% pushes estimators above his 1.77 ERA, but that’s to be expected with an ERA so low. His only estimator above three is a 3.23 DRA that probably accounts for several starts made at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, along with the Brewers, Royals and Pirates comprising four of his nine starts, while the White Sox have been the only above average offense he’s faced. The run of inferior competition doesn’t stop tonight, though the favorable weather at Wrigley may. The Indians have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP with a 24.2 K% and 12.5 HR/FB. With a number of switch hitters, Cleveland can predominantly attack Darvish from his weaker side, but LHBs still have just a .299 wOBA against him since last season. Despite no help from the Wrigley winds, Darvish is still probably the top overall arm on the slate. He’s $1.4K more than any other pitcher on FanDuel, but still likely a fine value for $11.2K.
Tom Eshelman has allowed 17 HRs in 61 innings
Tom Eshelman has been blasted for five HRs over 25 innings with just 11 strikeouts and eight walks, yet has just a 3.96 ERA due to a .187 BABIP. A 5.90 SIERA is his only estimator below six and a HR every five innings is actually an improvement upon last year’s 36 innings with 12 HRs allowed. The 61 major league innings overall come with a 5.3 K-BB%. The Braves have a 126 wRC+ and 19.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year. While Eshelman actually has a 45 point reverse split by wOBA in his career, batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 xwOBA and .220 ISO. Freddie Freeman (.435 wOBA, .298 ISO) homered in Baltimore last night and costs $4.1K on FanDuel, but is once again a top batter on the slate. He has a 228 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 92.1 mph EV on the year.
The top wRC+ in baseball over the last 30 days and still less than $3K
Huascar Ynao has walked one more than he’s struck out through 73 batters faced. The good news is that 52.1% of his contact has been on the ground with an 86.8 mph EV. With more walks than strikeouts though, his ERA and all estimators are above six. The Orioles have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa in 17.2 major league innings. DJ Stewart continues to destroy opposing pitching with a major league leading 276 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while 27.6% of his contact this year has been barreled. Stewart has a .359 wOBA and .280 ISO vs RHP since last season and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.