DFS Alerts
Swerve To This GPP Stack
The Coors Field game will be chalky tonight for good reason, but don’t sleep on the Braves in tournaments. They get an intriguing matchup here against Steven Matz, and the power/speed combination for the Braves helps give them plenty of upside here. Matz does not hold runners well, and that means guys like Acuna, Swanson, and others can show off their all around ability in this game. There’s explosive potential here, making Atlanta one of the night’s best GPP stacks. Matz has allowed a .326 wOBA to LHBs and a .321 wOBA to RHBs for his career, so you could even target Freeman in a L/L matchup as a contrarian play.
Other tagged players: Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman
Matchup Aided Upside
It is no surprise that Plesac’s numbers have regressed a bit after a red hot start to the year. He was never going to be a 1.00 ERA pitcher, nor is he the pitcher who posted a SIERA and xFIP around 5.00 last year. He will settle in the middle of that range, and that’s just fine in a matchup against a Tigers team that strikes out a ton against RHP. Plesac owns an above average strikeout rate and minuscule walk rate, making him one of the better pitching options in all formats tonight.
A Great Point Per Dollar Arm
Paddack has often disappointed as chalk this year, but he is a fine option on tonight’s slate. The ownership won’t be as high as it was the last time he faced Seattle, the price tag is a bit depressed on the DFS sites, and Paddack still has some upside with an above average strikeout rate and nearly 12% swinging strike rate. He doesn’t walk many batters, and he has been absurdly unlucky this year with an unsustainable 24% HR/FB rate. I like him a lot on this slate.
Will Smith has a 221 wRC+ over the last month
Kyle Freeland has just a 16.1 K%, but is succeeding through good control (6.8 BB%) and lots of weak (86.3 mph EV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE) ground balls (52.6%). Not even Statcast (4.40 xERA) can support his 3.54 ERA though. All of his estimators are hanging around the mid-fours, which isn’t terrible, due to a 79.9 LOB%. Also in his favor, the Dodgers haven’t been as good against LHP (101 wRC+, 12.3 HR/FB) as RHP. However, they still have just a 10.4 K-BB% against southpaws and this is still Coors. RHBs have a .364 wOBA and .232 ISO against Freeland since last year. Although he’s been better this year (.314 wOBA, .128 ISO), but the top projected bats on this slate are going to come from the Dodger lineup. The most interesting place to look is the catcher sitting right in the middle of the order and costing just $3.4K on FanDuel. Will Smith only has 91 career PAs against LHP (.317 wOBA, .179 ISO), but is smashing the ball for a 221 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days and has barreled 14.3% of his contact this year.
Cleveland's 11.3 BB% against RHP could frustrate Casey Mize
Casey Mize has a very average 14.1 K-BB% through his first five major league starts, but it seems he’s been lucky that just three of his batted balls have left the yard, as he’s allowed seven Barrels (11.9%). His 5.85 ERA is the results of a 64.8 LOB% with all of his non-Statcast estimators around a run or more lower, but adding those Barrels in gives him a 5.41 xERA. Either way, he should show some improvement, though certainly not living up to the high expectations so far. The Indians have just an 86 wRC+, but tons of patience (11.3 BB%) against RHP this year. Considering Mize’s 8.7 BB%, Cleveland has a chance to frustrate him tonight and should be utilized as a stack. LHBs have a .369 wOBA and .387 ISO against him and the Indians are able to attack him primarily from that side due to an abundance of switch hitters. Francisco Lindor is the hottest batter in the lineup (135 wRC+ last 30 days) and costs a reasonable $3.5K on FanDuel. He has a .359 wOBA and .250 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and should find himself on base a few times with the ability to score some runs tonight.
All the pitching analysis needed: Shane Bieber is facing the Tigers
Shane Bieber is facing the Tigers. No other pitching analysis may be necessary today. He’s faced them once, striking out 11 of 25 batters with three hits and one walk. There’s little reason to expect much different results. Bieber has a silly 41.3 K%, 2.44 SIERA, 2.43 DRA and 2.51 xERA on the season. The Tigers have an 81 wRC+ and 21.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Not a single batter in the Detroit lineup is above a .330 wOBA or .170 ISO against RHP since 2019, while Bieber has held batters from either side of the plate below a .270 wOBA over the same span. On FanDuel, Bieber costs $1K more than Aaron Nola, but considering the matchups, no other pitcher on this slate comes anywhere close to what Bieber should be able to do tonight.
Cold Hitter vs Very Bad Pitcher
To put things lightly, Altuve has been absolute trash so far this season when looking at his actual numbers vs RHP. He owns a .104 ISO and a .284 wOBA. While this may be because they can’t cheat anymore, knowing whether or not Lyles is going to throw a breaking ball may not matter considering he his horrible. On the season, Lyles owns a horrible .408 wOBA and .279 ISO to go with a 13.4% K rate vs righties. Even if Altuve was a league average hitter, he would still be a good play today at his price tag over on DK at just 3.6k, but he’s definitely not a league average hitter. He’s still only striking out at a 16.7% K rate and the rest of his underlying numbers really aren’t that bad. He’s going to turn it around at some point and this is a perfect spot for him against a terrible pitcher.
Julian Merryweather to open ahead of Chase Anderson on Thursday
Not a whole lot should change for Anderson, although he likely won’t enter the game until about the second inning. Both pitchers are right-handers, so this doesn’t change the Yankees projected lineup.
Other tagged players: Julian Merryweather
A Clear Lock and Load
Tapia was a clear mispricing today as he is 3.1k in Coors and is likely batting leadoff. While I get that its a lefty/lefty matchup, this really isn’t a bad spot for him. Urias is striking out lefties at a high clip this season, but he is also giving up a ton of hard contact and a ton of fly balls to lefties which really wont play well in Coors today. On the season Urias has a 66.7% FB rate, 56% hard hit rate, and a .211 ISO vs lefities and Tapia in a small sample size has a .399 wOBA with an above average hard hit rate vs LHP. This is a lock and load in cash where you need to get Bieber in and likely a spot you want to be overweight on in tournaments.
A Real WTF Price Tag
I’m really having trouble understanding the price tag her for O’Neill. The guy absolutely has the ability to take the ball out of the ballpark, he is batting 4th in the lineup, and he gets a matchup against a lefty who only has a 17.9% K rate against righties since the beggining of last season. While there is alway a chance that O’Neill ends up with a goose egg and even though he has been terrible against LHP so far this season in a very small sample size, he grades out as one of, if not the, top point per dollar hitter on todays slate on DK where he’s only 2.8K.
The Best Cheap Option
This is not a slate with great pitching value, which is made even more critical based on Bieber being close to a must play and Coors being on the slate. All that being said, Tanaka really is the best of the cheaper pitchers. He comes in to this game with a 4.44 xFIP to go along with a 23.1% K rate and 3.4% walk rate. while hes been fairly limited earlier on in the season, he has pitched over 90 pitches in both the last two starts and has averaged close to 20 points over the last 3 games. He draws a matchup against the Blue Jays who do have some power in their lineup, but they are really an average lineup with a slightly above average K rate. If Tanaka can get out of this one without giving up a home run or 2, then he could be in line for a very solid outing for his price.
Salary Relief On The Way
I didn’t expect myself to be tagging Raimel Tapia, but the nature of the slate feels like it dictates it. He’s dirt cheap, likely hitting lead-off and a way to get some salary relief while also fitting in a pitching stud such as Shane Bieber. This is one of those cases where it has less to do with who Tapia is as a player, and moreso the opportunity he is in. There are a lot of good outfield options today, especially on the Yankees, but it’s hard to ignore this Coors game environment which has the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin.
Too Cheap For Who He Is
I’ll be honest, I haven’t been impressed with the Astros this season. It’s like their hitting powers have disappeared now that they aren’t allowed to cheat. They were shut out last night and haven’t put up double-digit runs since August 24th. The appeal here is that Jordan Lyles has not been good this season, boasting a 1.90 HR/9 ratio with a 7.80 ERA and ugly 1.64 WHIP. The prices on these Astros bats are also dirt cheap across the industry, especially Jose Altuve, and they are a way to get exposure to a top offense as well as top tier pitching in Shane Bieber without breaking the bank.
Miles Ahead of the Pack
It’s not even close as to who you should roster as your pitching ace tonight. Bieber is miles ahead of the pitching field tonight, even though we have other quality arms on the slate. He owns a ridiculous 1.53 ERA, 1.93 xFIP, 41% strikeout rate, and 17.5% swinging strike rate this season. He also gets to face a Tigers team that is abysmal against RHP and strikes out at the highest clip in the league against righties. Find a way to make him your SP1 tonight.
The Bombers Are Back
Despite being ravaged by injuries throughout the season, the Yankees still have the second highest team walk rate in all of baseball, and they also rank third in team ISO and sixth in team wOBA. It is an impressive performance for a team that was without Judge, LeMahieu, and Stanton for extended stretches. Stanton and LeMahieu are now back, and Luke Voit leads the majors in home runs. Tonight, they face a fly ball, HR prone pitcher in Chase Anderson, and they have been raking in this series. Don’t sleep on this offense. Feel free to power hunt in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks