DFS Alerts
Hunter Dozier has a .411 wOBA vs LHP since 2019
Matthew Boyd has allowed multiple HRs in five of his last seven starts. The 11.3% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. That didn’t work with a 23.8 K-BB% last year. It’s not going to work with a 16.9% one this year. The Royals lack power (12.4 HR/FB), but are contact prone against LHP (105 wRC+, 21.4 K%). That plays opposite to Boyd’s strengths and weaknesses. RHBs have smashed Boyd since last year though (.350 wOBA, .249 ISO). The Royals do have one batter who has really punished southpaws since last season in Hunter Dozier (.411 wOBA, .269 ISO). Dozier also has a 141 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs just $3.2K on FanDuel.
Mets should cause trouble for Jake Arrieta (LHBs .379 wOBA, .218 ISO since 2019) tonight
Jake Arrieta has dragged his ground ball rate up to 50.4% on the season, but with just a 7.9 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE (89 mph EV). His 5.54 ERA is well below his 6.11 xERA, but well above all other estimators due to a .328 BABIP and 66.7 LOB%. It only gets as optimistic as a 4.42 xFIP though. The Mets have a 129 wRC+, 21.6 K% and 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP. The upper half of the lineup is loaded with quality left-handed bats and that should give Arrieta fits, as he has a .379 wOBA and .218 ISO against batters from that side of the plate since last season. Near the top of the lineup, Michael Conforto (.398 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a lineup leading 183 overall wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs a reasonable $3.5K on FanDuel. In fact, every LHB in the projected lineup tonight is above a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Marwin Gonzalez (non-COVID related illness) scratched Monday
The Twins have yet to announce who will replace him in the lineup, but Gonzalez has been scratched and won’t play due to a non-COVID related illness. We’ll push the new confirmed lineup via the RotoGrinders Alerts App, but you can also view it on the lineups page once we get word on Gonzalez’s replacement.
DJ Stewart has a 278 wRC+ over the last 30 days
Touki Toussaint was banished to the dreaded “Alternate Site” towards the end of August, after walking eight of his last 26 batters with just five strikeouts, pushing his ERA up to 7.89. Control has long been a major issue and one he looked to be improving on, while walking just five of his first 76 batters. The 27.5 K% is great if he can ever get the rest of it under control. Unfortunately, his 12.5% Barrels/BBE nearly matches his 12.8% walk rate. The Orioles have a 100 wRC+ with a 22.9 K% vs RHP this year. Touissaint has been particularly smoked by LHBs since last season (.454 wOBA, .306 ISO). DJ Stewart counters with a .354 wOBA and .269 ISO vs RHP since last year. He has a 278 wRC+ over the last 30 days (37 PAs), which is only the best mark in the majors, and he’s barreled 26.9% of his contact on the year. Perhaps the best part is that Stewart still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.
Freddie Freeman has a .430 wOBA vs RHP since 2019
Jorge Lopez has struck out just 19 of 106 batters (8.5 SwStr%), but with a 52 GB%. Unfortunately, a 91.3 mph EV has still led to 9.1% Barrels/BBE. Lopez allowed 27 HRs in 123 innings last year and has just a 10.4 K-BB% in 213.1 career innings. The Braves are the top offense on the board when you take matchup and environment into account. They have a 127 wRC+ and 19.5 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Consider that LHBs have a .397 wOBA and .258 ISO against Lopez since last season and Freddie Freeman is the top overall bat on the board. He costs $4.3K on FanDuel, but has a .430 wOBA and .295 ISO against RHP since 2019, along with an overall 215 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Jose Berrios has a 33.9 K% over his last five starts
Jose Berrios has a 33.9 K% over his last five starts and has allowed just seven runs over 22.2 innings over his last four. To illustrate how poorly he started, he still has a 4.40 ERA, which is now finally within half a run of all of his estimators, though if he keeps pitching like this, of course, all numbers will improve. The 27.1 K% is now a career high for Berrios, who has had both his worst and second best starts of the season against the White Sox this year. The White Sox have a 112 wRC+ and 19.1 HR/FB vs RHP (23.4 HR/FB at home). They do offer some strikeout upside though (25.2 K% vs RHP). It’s not ideal, but with Kershaw and Lamet facing each other, none of the top pitchers on this three game slate have favorable matchups. This may actually be the best of the three. Berrios doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side of the plate within six points of a .300 wOBA against him since last season. Make no mistake, this is a dangerous lineup he faces, but at $9.2K, Berrios is $1K less than the top two pitchers on FanDuel and may be the top value on the board.
Cheap Outfielders Galore
We’ve got an expensive pitcher and some high end bats to spend on today on DK. The easiest place to find savings to fit all that is in the outfield. DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, Jake Cave, Matt Joyce and Brian Goodwin are all below $3,000 tonight, and any are viable as fill ins where needed. I’ll start with Stewart, as I like the Braves-Orioles game the most tonight on both sides. While Stewart’s power surge last week was almost certainly a fluky outlier, his 52% fly ball rate implies that he’s going to keep swinging for the fences.
The Best Hitter On The Top Team
Atlanta is the standout offense on today’s slate on all sites, going to Baltimore to face Jorge Lopez and the Orioles bullpen. The closest thing Lopez has to a plus skill is ground balls to righties, so I will start with Freddie Freeman as the expensive bat to focus on here. Freeman does everything at an elite level, from his low strikeouts to high walks giving him on base upside, his hard hits and line drives giving him power upside and plenty of run and RBI opportunity in the middle of the Atlanta lineup.
Really The Only Ace
Trevor Bauer is only available on DK today, but he’s the clear ace of this slate, coming in well ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Dinelson Lamet. Kershaw has more than six strikeouts just twice all season and has not hit 100 pitches once. Bauer has 7+ strikeouts in 7 of 8 starts and has topped 100 pitches seven times. On top of a skills advantage with a 36%-28% K advantage for Bauer, the matchup edge is strongly in Bauer’s favor as well.
This Man Is On Fire
Lefties against Chad Kuhl has always been a thing, and when you add to the fact Adalberto Mondesi has been on fire lately, it makes him an even more appealing play. Mondesi has put together 26+ DraftKings points in three straight games, hitting for power and showing off his speed. With Mondesi being a switch hitter and holding the platoon-advantage over Kuhl, he makes for a fine one-off play.
Value Lefty Mashers
I don’t want to recommend a Rays righty stack against Perez for a few reasons. The first is that the Rays sub guys like there’s no tomorrow. Brosseau is going to turn into Ji-Man Choi at some point, while Randy Arozarena is going to turn into Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays stack is frustrating because you’re unlikely going to get a full game out of the stack, so you’ll need to do your damage early. And the problem I have with Martin Perez is the guy never gets blown up. He’s allowing just a 32.9% hard hit rate and owns a respectable 1.15 HR/9 ratio. His walk rate has ballooned to 12.2% this season so he’s had some command issues, but he seems to always do enough to escape damage. I like any of the four Rays right-handed bats in Mike Brosseau, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as a one-off if you want to chase the power upside. Just know they will likely get subbed out at some point.
Christian Yelich (.400 wOBA vs LHP since 2019) has a strong lefty on lefty matchup
Jon Lester has spiked his strikeout rate all the way up to 17.8% with an 8.2 SwStr% over his last six starts and he has a 9.26 ERA with eight HRs and a 91.9 mph EV to show for it. For the season, all of his estimators are above five and most don’t even take into account his 12.1% Barrels/BBE. The Brewers have been hammering LHP this year (121 wRC+, 19.8 HR/FB). Considering batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .350 wOBA against Lester since last season and also considering Christian Yelich has a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO against LHP since last season, this may be a not so obvious route to choose tonight. Yelich’s $4.1K price tag on FanDuel could make him a contrarian choice with lots of upside. He may not have started the 2020 season strong, but he’s now up to a 93.3 mph EV on the year and has a 127 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
German Marquez isn't bad against RHBs (.298 wOBA) but Mike Trout is at Coors
German Marquez has been a work horse. He’s average 26 batters faced per start with a 12.9 SwStr%, but just a 22.2 K%. He should be in line for a few more strikeouts, but his issue has always been and continues to be hard contact (89.9 mph EV). The nature of Coors is that it’s not very forgiving, so Marquez has a 4.54 ERA that’s above all of his estimators that don’t account for his contact profile, while his 4.93 xERA is a bit higher. The Angels have a 120 wRC+ with just a 9.4 K-BB% vs RHP. Even with German Marquez holding RHBs to a .298 wOBA and .154 ISO since last season, while pitching half his games in this park, Mike Trout is an absolute monster here. He owns a .454 wOBA with a .381 ISO vs RHP since 2019, has a 174 wRC+ over the last 30 days and has barreled 18% of his contact this year. He’s going to cost you, but he’s always going to cost a lot and Mike Trout at Coors doesn’t come around every year.
Trevor Story is the Rockies' best RHB (91 mph EV, 10.4% Barrels/BBE)
Griffin Canning has taken all eight of his turns in the rotation, but something just doesn’t appear to be right. His velocity has been down over a mile per hour from last season, his strikeout rate is down 4.8 points and his swinging strike rate is down exactly four points with a 1.1 point increase in walk rate. He’s already allowed 13 Barrels this year after allowing just 15 in more than twice as many innings last year. As a result, even a 4.54 ERA is at least 40 points below all of his estimators with a 4.94 SIERA the only one below five. The Rockies do have a 15.7 K-BB% and 74 wRC+ against RHP, but Coors essentially makes them an average offense. That makes this a matchup of an average offense against a struggling pitcher. Interestingly, Canning has a reverse split for his career. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .190 ISO against him, but RHBs have a 21 point wOBA advantage (.337). You can debate who the better RH hitter is for the Rockies: Trevor Story (.376 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2019) or Nolan Arenado (.374 wOBA, .250 ISO). What isn’t up for debate is that Story is making much better contact this season. He has 91 mph EV and 10.4% Barrels/BBE this year to Arenado’s 87.7 mph EV and 6.2% Barrels/BBE. Trevor Story is the Colorado bat you want in your lineup tonight.
Luis Castillo (31.1 K%, 85.8 mph EV) gets a big park upgrade tonight
Luis Castillo had a nice outing in Pittsburgh last time out to push his ERA below four for the season, but surface stats still appear to be deceiving. He’s sporting a 31.1 K%, 57.4 GB% and 85.8 mph EV (6.1% Barrels/BBE). So how the heck does he have a 3.95 ERA? A completely unsustainable .387 BABIP is how. While that number is bound to regress for just about anybody, Castillo has nothing in his profile to support it. He’s not getting hit hard and he has just a 16.5 LD%. Estimators that don’t even consider contact profile are all more than a half run below his ERA with Statcast generating a 3.09 xERA that fits right in. While it’s not the matchup itself with the Cardinals (100 wRC+, 22 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) that’s incredibly appealing, it’s potentially the most negative run environment on the slate that is. St Louis can be one of the most power suppressing parks in the league when temperatures are mild or cool and that can be seen in the home team’s 11.9 HR/FB in that park this year in mostly warm weather affairs. Because of the high BABIP and a pitching rich board, Luis Castillo could be a contrarian dark horse candidate for $9.1K on FanDuel tonight.