DFS Alerts
A Park Upgrade and Lots of Traffic
Kyle Wright has only managed to strike out 17.9% of batters since his debut last year. Even worse, he has walked nearly as many (17.3%) as he has struck out. The Marlins get a big park upgrade going to Atlanta, and should have multiple opportunities for high impact contact with runners in scoring position tonight.
Other tagged players: Garrett Cooper, Corey Dickerson, Brian Anderson
Mitch Moreland is barreling 17.5% of his contact this year
Chi Chi Gonzalez gets his second spot start for the Rockies and has struck out nine of 41 batters this year, but with four walks and two HRs. He has just a 2.1 K-BB% in 149.1 career innings with an 88.1 mph EV and 45.5 GB%. The latter two numbers being perfectly average doesn’t really help much when your strikeout and walk rates are packed so closely together. He pitched four innings successfully against the Padres at Coors one week ago, allowing just one run with three strikeouts, but the track record is an ERA and estimators around five in nearly a full season’s worth of work for his career. The Padres have a 122 wRC+, 21.5 K% and 20.6 HR/FB vs RHP. They also have a 23.8 HR/FB at home this year. In 148 plate appearances LHBs have a .389 wOBA and .238 ISO against Gonzalez since last year. Some of that is Coors, but it’s still safe to say you want to roster batters with the platoon edge against him on most nights. While the Padres have plenty of perfectly fine choices, let’s focus on Mitch Moreland here. He has a .384 wOBA and .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019, a 157 wRC+ over the last month, has barreled 17.5% of his contact this year and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight. Realistically, there probably aren’t going to be many poor choices in the San Diego lineup tonight.
Winds and strikeout upside at Wrigley
Tyler Mahle has a career high 28.5 K%, but is coming of a start with just three Ks, allowing multiple HRs in each of his last two starts. Mahle can miss a few bats (career 22.5 K%), but generally struggles against LH power (89.4 mph career EV). On the surface, the Cubs certainly aren’t an ideal matchup (108 wRC+, 22.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but conditions may dictate some reconsideration. Winds are blowing in strongly at Wrigley tonight, which should reduce their power potential against Mahle, but enhance a 25.9 K% against RHP in this matchup. Backed by a potentially very negative run environment, Mahle now seems worth the potential upside for less than $8K on FanDuel tonight.
Contrarian Stack?
The Mariners will get almost no attention tonight, and that helps to make them my favorite sneaky stack of the night against a middling pitcher in Webb. The Giants’ starter is merely average across the board, and the park in San Francisco is not playing nearly as pitcher friendly this year. Stack up the upside of Kyle Lewis with a shortstop play like Crawford and mix in a value bat or two, and you have a nice stack at very, very low ownership.
Other tagged players: J.P. Crawford, Dylan Moore
Sixto Mania!
I am a big fan of Sixto’s arm, and he is definitely in play for GPP rosters tonight despite a difficult matchup against a red hot Atlanta offense. Sanchez can sling it at 100 MPH with his fastball, and he has shown no nerves in his transition to a major league rotation. He has a 27% strikeout rate with just one walk in three starts, and that is impressive command for a 22 year-old that throws 100 MPH. The salary is still very affordable, and I will continue to go back to the well.
Always A Top Stack
The Dodgers are always in play as a top stack, and that is certainly the case again tonight. Luke Weaver has allowed a hard contact rate north of 45% this season, and lefties have pasted him for a .423 wOBA. This makes Seager and Muncy elite options with their power potential from the left side, while Gavin Lux is also a nice value selection.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Gavin Lux The Rangers have been awful against LHP (65 wRC+, 19 K-BB%)
Andrew Heaney has struck out at least six in six of eight starts. In fact, he’s struck out exactly six five times. The 17.9 K-BB% isn’t far off what he’s done over the last few years. The 37.1 GB% is a point and a half off his career rate. What has changed is that he’s just about half way to his innings total from last year with just one-third the Barrels and one-tenth the HRs. The 4.5 HR/FB isn’t sustainable, but a 4.12 SIERA, 4.08 xFIP and 4.04 xERA are all very close to his 3.89 ERA because he’s also only stranded 67.1% of runners. The ERA may be where it belongs, even if it didn’t take the most conventional route. Adding even more upside tonight is a Texas offense with a 65 wRC+ and 19 K-BB% vs LHP. In fact, the projected lineup for the Rangers does not contain a single batter above a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. A much more enticing matchup is why Heaney finds himself costing $400 less than his opponent on FanDuel tonight. The third most expensive pitcher overall, facing the Texas lineup gives Heaney one of the highest upsides on the board.
Batting Average Turn Around
It can be disappointing to see a player like Christian Yelich at a .201 batting average this late in the season, but this was always going to be the issue with a shortened season. There is not enough time for all the skills to fully play out and turn into surface stats. Yelich is striking out more this seaosn, but he’s also got the same elite 49% hard hit rate, but has just a .237 BABIP. For reference, in 2019, he had a .355 BABIP on 51% hard hits. This is nothing but sample size fluke in the low BABIP, and Yelich is priced closer to the mid-tier on Yahoo, where he stands out in a strong matchup against Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers bullpen.
Batters from either side are above a .190 ISO vs Kyle Wright since 2019
Kyle Wright has walked four more than he’s struck out through 15 innings (16 to 12) and was banished to the “alternate site” over three weeks ago. There’s not much positive to take from any of his stats. Even with an 85.8 mph EV, his 8.25 xERA is easily worst on the board. He doesn’t have a single estimator below six and only his FIP and xFIP are below seven. The Marlins have a 90 wRC+, 25.7 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP, but batters from either side are above a .360 wOBA and .190 ISO against Wright since 2019. With all Miami bats of consequence below $3.2K on FanDuel, there should be some value here tonight. Corey Dickerson has a .361 wOBA and .238 ISO vs RHP since last season and costs just $2.6K.
A .385 wOBA and .220 ISO vs LHP for $2.6K
John Means has as many HRs allowed (six) as strikeouts over his last three starts and just four more Ks than HRs on the year. We expected regression this year, but not this. His exit velocity is up over a mile and a half per hour and the eight Barrels allowed are already more than a quarter of his total last year despite an eight point increase in ground ball rate. The harder contact with the 6.5 point reduction in strikeout rate has really crushed Means, whose 5.28 xERA is the most optimistic of his estimators and nearly three runs below his 8.10 ERA. The Mets have a 115 wRC+, 10.2 K-BB% and 15 HR/FB vs LHP this year and can pile up some powerful RH bats against Means (RHBs .326 wOBA, .212 ISO since last season). J.D. Davis should be near the top of the lineup tonight and that’s the hitter FanDuel players want to look at tonight. His .385 wOBA and .220 ISO vs LHP since 2019 costs just $2.6K. Davis also has a 130 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 163 wRC+ at home since last season. His 90.4 mph EV this season is also best in the projected lineup.
Grab Some Lefties Here
The Padres face Chi Chi Gonzalez and the entirely right-handed bullpen of the Rockies. Gonzalez has managed just a 15.5% K rate to lefties since the start of last season while allowing a .238 ISO and .389 wOBA. Both Mitch Moreland and Trent Grisham are patient hitters with power, and can help DFS lineups in multiple ways. I will consider both in all formats on FD, with Moreland also being cheap enough for cash games on DK.
Other tagged players: Trent Grisham Attack The Worst Pitcher
While it never feels great to roster Marlins hitters, they standout as good salary options on this slate against Kyle Wright. Wright has been arguably the worst pitcher in the league this season with a horrendous 12:16 K:BB ratio, and he’s only back in the rotation due to injuries. Corey Dickerson should be at the top of the lineup for Miami with his low strikeouts and moderate power upside, posting a .238 ISO since the start of 2019. He’s just too cheap for this matchup.
Skills + Matchup = Play
There is a lot of good pitching tonight, with not much separation in skill set among the top pitchers. I would slightly lean to Walker Buehler ahead of Andrew Heaney on pure talent, but with the salaries and matchup factored in, Heaney rises to the top. The Rangers have the highest strikeout rate of any team in the league against left-handed pitching while ranking 24th in ISO and 28th in wOBA. Heaney has been piling up innings, with over 100 pitches in three of his last four starts and a 26.3% K rate that gives him plenty of upside in this matchup.
Fernando Tatis is barreling 20% of his contact this year
Kyle Freeland has pushed his ERA above four with eight runs over his last 6.1 innings. It’s still below all of his estimators, but now at least within half a run of all but his 5.49 DRA. The 55 GB% and 5.9 BB% with an 86.1 mph EV can only do so much to compensate for a 15.1 K%. He’s also facing an offense that has a 24.7 HR/FB at home and a 21.4 K% with an 18.6 HR/FB vs LHP. RHBs have a .374 wOBA and .245 ISO against Freeland since last season. They have a .335 wOBA against him this season. This isn’t Coors, but facing Fernando Tatis Jr. (.464 wOBA, .302 ISO vs LHP career) may make it feel like he’s pitching at home tonight. Tatis costs a hefty $4.6K on FanDuel, but is the bat players want to pay up for tonight. He has a 174 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 20% of his batted balls have been Barrels this year.
Christian Javier has a massive platoon split (LHBs .346 wOBA, .372 xwOBA)
Cristian Javier has a .167 BABIP and 88.7 LOB%, which push all his non-Statcast estimators more than a run above his 3.35 ERA. In fact, none are even below 4.5. The 3.24 xERA is a product of an 86 mph EV, but with just a 31.3 GB%, he’s still allowed 8.2% Barrels/BBE. A good reason to be skeptical of even his estimators is because his 7.5 SwStr% does not support his 23.5 K% (3.13 K/SwStr). LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .372 xwOBA against Javier thus far with RHBs below .200. The absences of Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman actually offers the A’s more opportunities to play LHBs. Tommy La Stella (.366 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 126 wRC+ over the last 30 days and rarely strikes out (8% vs RHP since 2019). He may be one of the top values on the board at just $3K on FanDuel.