DFS Alerts
Way Too Cheap Here
Madison Bumgarner is simply not the pitcher he used to be, but A.J. Pollock is priced as if he’s facing the old Bumgarner. So far this season, Bumgarner has struck out a pathetic 10.3% of righties while allowing 54% fly balls and 49% hard contact, good for a .455 ISO and .449 wOBA against him. By all means, play Mookie Betts, but Pollock has been every bit as good as Betts against lefties the past couple seasons at a fraction of the cost.
We'll See What The Weather Says
Gerrit Cole is the clear SP1 on this slate, especially on DK, but we’ve got some serious weather concerns in New York, so I’m planning on being without Cole on this slate. That leaves us with Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack as the main choices. Gray has shown some concerning signs recently, so I’ll start with the savings on the steady, strong control of Paddack. He’s at some risk against the Giants lefties, but there are enough right-handed bats in this lineup to give him plenty of strikeout upside for his price.
You Get One Spend Up
The Dodgers and Padres are right back on the top of the list tonight, and the three standout bats on the slate are Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado. You can’t go wrong with any of these hitters, but when sorting through the slate, third base ends up looking like the weak spot. There better spend down options at shortstop and outfield, so I’d prefer to start with my big spend on Manny Machado and his 12 HR, .306 average, .391 wOBA and .277 ISO.
Thursday's Top Offense
The Dodgers almost have to be the top offense on the board tonight thanks to their matchup against what is left of Madison Bumgarner and his left arm. Bumgarner has laughable numbers in his small 2020 sample that include a 6.02 SIERA, a 49% hard contact rate allowed, and a meager 15% strikeout rate. His trends have been on the decline for several years now. RHBs have a .451 wOBA against him this season. Betts is my favorite play; while he has struggled just a bit against lefties this year, but the sample size is small. He stsill owns a .377 wOBA and .217 ISO against southpaws for his career, and he will likely be looking at five at bats tonight as the leadoff hitter for the road team. Don’t overthink this one. Fit him in your lineups. Pollock generally hits in the middle of the order against lefties and is more affordable, while the full stack is obviously in play as well.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor
Affordable SP2 Choice
Fleming is by no means an ace, but he is the most enticing cheap option that we have at pitcher on this short slate. He checks in as a very large home favorite against a Red Sox offense that has been extremely hit or miss in 2020. Fleming has looked very good in two of his three starts, with low walks and a hard contact rate under 30%. He won’t wow you with swing and miss stuff, but he is a logical SP2 choice that allows you to spend up on the bats you want.
The GPP Swerve
While his strikeout ability still showcases his upside, we can’t hide the fact that Gerrit Cole has shown several alarming trends this season, primarily in the form of a 43% hard contact rate, high average exit velocity off opponents’ bats, a 10.2% barrel rate allowed, and 13 home runs in nine starts. I won’t fade him entirely in GPP’s tonight, but don’t be afraid to pivot to other options. Sonny Gray is my favorite, as he will be under-owned after a bad start his last time out. The Cubs can be beaten by good pitching, especially in the cool weather environment that now exists in Chicago. Gray has plenty of upside with a 3.15 xFIP and a 31.6% strikeout rate this year, and I love him as a tournament option on this slate.
Ketel Marte (wrist) scratched Thursday
Marte has been scratched from Thursday’s lineup and will be placed on the 10-day IL. The DBacks did recall Josh VanMeter who may get a look with Marte on the shelf.
As reported by: Nick Piecoro
Lefties have a .396 wOBA and .245 ISO against Jorge Lopez since 2019
Jorge Lopez has a 5.59 ERA that’s above all of his estimators through 19.1 innings, but through 208.2 career innings, he has a 5.87 ERA with estimators not much below five. Match his 10.1 career K-BB% with an 89.5 mph career EV and perhaps most estimators aren’t fully capturing his skill level. The Mets have a 126 wRC+, 21.8 K% and 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP. They are also the hottest offense on the board with a 151 wRC+, 19.3 K% and 21.9 HR/FB over the last week. Lopez has faced 311 LHBs since last year and they’ve absolutely smashed a .396 wOBA and .245 ISO against him. Unfortunately for him, this lineup is loaded with LH power. Fortunately for him, this is a negative run environment, but for less than $3K on FanDuel, both Brandon Nimmo (.349 wOBA, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Jeff McNeil (.395 wOBA, .231 ISO) would seem to retain tremendous value here. The latter has homered in three straight games after not having a single one prior.
Fernando Tatis has a 96.4 mph EV this year
Antonio Senzatela has improved his results (3.33 ERA) by cutting down on his fastball usage. Unfortunately, he’s only struck out seven of his last 73 batters, which means the career best 12.1 K-BB% is being driven by a 3.5 BB% that’s less than half his career rate, while his 15.7 K% is now below his 16% career rate. His 50% ground ball rate is right on his career rate (50.5%) as well. All of his estimators are about a run above his ERA due to an 80.5 LOB%, but they’re still a small improvement on his career numbers. He’ll gain a significant park upgrade tonight, but will also be facing the hardest hitting offense in the league. The Padres have a 140 wRC+ and 24.2 HR/FB at home this year. They have a 126 wRC+, 21.1 K% and 21 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Considering that batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against Senzatela since last season, Fernando Tatis (.400 wOBA, .302 ISO vs RHP career) may be your top overall bat again tonight. Tatis has a 180 wRC+ over the last 30 days and an even more impressive 96.4 mph EV this year. In most cases, he’s sending the ball back out harder than it’s coming in.
The Cubs have a 26.2 K% vs RHP
Trevor Bauer allowed just two runs with 41 strikeouts through his first four starts with excitement about increased spin rates on all of his pitches. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) and two HRs over 17.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. His strikeout rate has dipped below 30 over the last 30 days with an 11.5 SwStr%. A .216 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% are keeping his ERA below three with his SIERA, FIP and xFIP in the low threes. However, a 1.90 DRA and 2.22 xFIP still confirm his actual overall results thus far. The Cubs are not an easy assignment (106 wRC+, 21.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but favorable weather and increased strikeout upside (Cubs 26.2% vs RHP) should dictate at least some exposure to Bauer in your daily fantasy lineups tonight with the third highest price tag ($10.8K) on FanDuel.
Corey Seager is barreling 18% of his contact this year
Taylor Clarke has increased his strikeout rate by more than five points, but his walk rate by nearly as much with little difference to a 10.6 K-BB%. He allowed 30 Barrels in 84.2 innings last year, resulting in 23 home runs. The good news is that the ground ball rate is up from 39.7% to 53.5%, which means that even with the same exit velocity (89 mph), he’s only allowed five Barrels and four HRs. It’s only been 27.1 innings though. His current estimators are all well above his 2.96 ERA due to a .194 BABIP and 79.5 LOB%. In fact, his contact profile included 3.59 xERA is his only estimator within a run of his actual results. The Dodgers have a board high split 128 wRC+ vs RHP this year, which includes an equal strikeout (19.9%) and HR/FB rate. Consider loading up on Dodger bats tonight. Batters from either side are above a .240 ISO against Clarke since last season. Corey Seager (.384 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is a great core piece to lineups tonight. He has a 164 wRC+ over the last month and is barreling 18% of his contact this year.
Seven straight starts without more than a run
Yu Darvish owns a board best 28.8 K-BB%. He has not only pitched seven straight Quality Starts, but he hasn’t allowed more than a single run in any of those starts. A 90.9 LOB% is not sustainable, while an 8.6 HR/FB may not be either, but his 27.4% 95+ mph EV is also best on the board and a 3.13 DRA is his only estimator above three.
The Reds have some power (18.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but also just a 91 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP. They have a team 27.5 K% over the last week. Add in some favorable pitching weather and Darvish becomes a strong value on FanDuel, even as the highest priced arm on the board ($11.5K), which would also make him tonight’s top overall arm. Without many clear hot spots for bats tonight, Darvish should be worth the pay up.
Stick With What's Working
The Padres are showing no signs of slowing down, and this is an offense you want some piece of pretty much every slate. With Antonio Senzatela on the mound for Colorado along with their right-handed bullpen, it’s an edge to the left-handed bats again for the Padres, and the salaries also make it easier to fit the lefties. Mitch Moreland will get regular playing time in the middle of this powerful lineup now that Eric Hosmer is injured, and against righties, Moreland is a power threat with on base skills that fits in all formats.
Ace, Ace, Ace
There are three elite pitchers who stand out above the crowd tonight with Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw. Any of the three are great plays on any site in any format, but if forced to choose, I’ll side with Yu Darvish on top. He has been on another level with his skills since the seond half of 2019. He hasn’t walked more than two batters in a start since last June, and he piles up strikeouts, including double digit K’s in three of his last five games. He doesn’t need any help, but he’ll get some from the wind blowing in again tonight at Wrigley Field, adding some safety to his extreme upside.
If You Don't Want To, I'll Understand
Joey Gallo as a Core Play is always going to look a little funny. There are a lot of good options in this price range, especially on FD, so if you don’t want to play a boom or bust bat like Gallo, I completely understand. But what I see here is arguably the worst pitcher in the league against left-handed batters in Julio Teheran, who is either going to walk Gallo multiple times, giving him run scoring upside, or he’s going to throw something in the strike zone, where he allows fly balls and hard hits, with Gallo being one of the biggest power bats in the league. While the batting average will always be ugly, Gallo has immense power, and underrated patience that helps give him a bit of a floor.