DFS Alerts
Hyun-jin Ryu has raised his strikeout rate five (27.6%) points since last season
Hyun-Jin Ryu has raised his strikeout rate five points (27.6%), staving off expected regression from an 82.2 LOB% last year by improving his estimators. His 2.51 ERA is still at least a half run below all of his non-FIP estimators, which see the 10.7 HR/FB as unsustainable, and two of his 14 runs are also unearned. His 26.5% 95+ mph EV is a board low though, and his exit velocity has never been above 87.5 mph with more than 18 batted ball events in a season, so we should probably put less stock in a 3.54 SIERA at this point. While attacking the Yankees has generally been poor daily fantasy strategy in the past, this is not the same offense. They have just an 88 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs LHP this year. In fact, the projected lineup contains just three batters above a .325 wOBA against southpaws since last season and four below a .160 ISO. At $9.5K, Ryu is just the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel on a six game slate and that might just make him the top value among high end arms tonight.
Not The Same Pitcher
With so many great options at pitcher tonight, I don’t think Plesac will be to popular. He really struggled in his rookie season, but we’re starting to see a little more of the strikeout ability he showed in the Minors. He has a 3.04 xFIP with a 30.3% strikeout rate and a 14% swinging strike rate. He’s throwing his fastball less, and attacking righties with his slider, which has a 51.43% whiff rate this season. He’s using his fastball less against lefties and using his curveball on top of his changeup to create a strikeout pitch against lefties. The Royals have the lowest implied team total on the slate, and I love the upside for Plesac in this matchup.
Lead-Off Option At Dirt Cheap Price
Trevor Rogers is a 22-year old rookie with very little Minor League experience, so I have no idea how he’s going to fair in the Majors. He’s looked good through two starts with the Rays, but with walks being an issue and the Rays rating as the most patient team in the Majors against lefties, I could see the Rays just having Rogers beat himself up before delivering some punishing blows. In a Rays stack, my priorities would be the right-handed power bats of Mike Brosseau (he’s 12-for-36 this season against lefties with 4 homers and 4 doubles), Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Willy Adames. We could also see a cheap Randy Arozarena at the top of the order, who does have a homer this season and is known for his speed. The one problem with the Rays is that Manuel Margot could easily turn into Kevin Kiermaier in a later inning, and Mike Brosseau could turn into Joey Wendle. The hope here is that the Rays starters do enough damage to Rogers before they potentially get subbed out in the later innings. They are probably my favorite cheap(ish) stack option today, and Margot is super cheap and worth consideration in a cash lineup if he’s leading off.
Cheap, Hot Bat Going Up Against Struggling Starter
Yairo Munoz is swinging a hot bat and was bumped up to 6th in the order, so he’s someone to consider as a one-off or potential cash game play. It’ll be interesting to see how much ownership Boston gets considering Robbie Ray is still a pitcher we’ve generally avoided picking on. But given Ray’s struggles this season where he has nearly as many walks (32) as innings pitched this season (34.1), I don’t think it’s crazy to attack him until he shows he’s back to the old Robbie Ray. He’s also been dealing with home run issues as he’s allowed 10 already this season.
Cheap GPP Arm In Great Matchup
I have concerns that Antone only threw 66 pitches last game and hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches this season, but holy cow, has he been good this season. He enters with a 34.6 K% with 27 strikeouts over 20.1 innings, which is a shock considering his strikeout rate hovered in the low 20%‘s during his time in Minors. Maybe something has finally clicked, but he now faces a Pirates team that has the 7th highest team K% against right-handed pitching and the league’s lowest team wRC+. I don’t think Antone is viable in cash games but I love him as an SP2 in tournaments if he can untap the strikeout potential in this matchup. Pitch count is a concern, which is why he’s a GPP-only option for me.
Happy Harvey Day!
I wrote this in my article yesterday – “MLB managers really should try to work their rotations to avoid having their lefties pitch against the White Sox. Obviously, this is not practical in a lot of cases, but it surprises me how often the White Sox seem to line up against a LH starter.” The Royals have countered today by using Matt Harvey against the White Sox. Harvey is a washed up RHP with an 11% walk rate, a 6.61 xFIP, and a 67% hard hit rate allowed this year. Perhaps a lefty would be a better choice. Harvey is particularly awful against LHBs, making Mazara a solid value on today’s slate. Grandal also makes sense on DK where you need a catcher. You really can’t go wrong with any choice here.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal
Sunday's Top Arm
It’s hard to avoid using Bieber as your SP1 today. His strikeout rate is all the way up to a massive 42% this year, and he is quickly working his way into the conversation as potentially the best pitcher in baseball. Outside of Hiura and Yelich, the Brewers lineup is very beatable — and it’s full of players with high strikeout rates against RHP. Give me all the Bieber today. It has been amazing to watch him grow into an ace, and he’s still just 25 years old.
Elite Stack Option
The Chicago White Sox continue to lead MLB against left-handed pitching and they are in a prime spot against Kris Bubic and the Royals tonight. Against lefties they rank first in wOBA at .401, first in OBP at .381 and first in wRC+ in at 159. The White Sox are loaded with right-handed talent and their entire lineup is in play tonight as they are an elite stack option.
Elite Stack Option
The Chicago White Sox continue to lead MLB against left-handed pitching and they are in a prime spot against Kris Bubic and the Royals tonight. Against lefties they rank first in wOBA at .401, first in OBP at .381 and first in wRC+ in at 159. The White Sox are loaded with right-handed talent and their entire lineup is in play tonight as they are an elite stack option.
Elite Stack Option
The Chicago White Sox continue to lead MLB against left-handed pitching and they are in a prime spot against Kris Bubic and the Royals tonight. Against lefties they rank first in wOBA at .401, first in OBP at .381 and first in wRC+ at 159. The White Sox are loaded with right-handed talent and their entire lineup is in play tonight as they are an elite stack option.
Elite Splits vs LHP
Two Minnesota bats stand out, and they are likely no secret. Nelson Cruz has made a career out of crushing left-handed pitchers, and he is obviously an elite target here. Unfortunately, he will cost you a pretty penny. The better point per dollar target is Josh Donaldson, and he stands out as a clear core play on this slate against a mediocre lefty in Skubal. Donaldson remains too cheap on every DFS site now that he is back from injury, and he owns a career .402 wOBA and .289 ISO against LHP. That is remarkable over an extended career sample. Fire up Cruz and Donaldson as necessary today, but be cautious with the rest of the Twins.
Saturday's Top Spend
I absolutely love the Atlanta offense tonight. These two teams played a double-header yesterday, and the bullpens need a breather. Washington used six relievers yesterday. Now, on a day where they need some innings from a starter, the Nationals throw… Erick Fedde to the bump. Yes, this is the same Erick Fedde who owns a 14.9% strikeout rate in his career MLB sample size and a 7.9% strikeout rate this season. He has walked more than he has struck out in 2020. His SIERA is 5.59. His hard contact rate is close to 50%. This gets a big YIKES. Let me pause to discuss Freddie Freeman for a second. Check out his profile. If you look at the “Plate IQ” positive score factors today, Freddie Freeman has TWENTY SIX positive marks on his card. That is the most that I have seen in a long time. The next highest mark on today’s slate is seven lower than that. The Braves also have an implied team total north of six runs in this game.
SP1 On A Loaded Slate
DFS players are inherently smart, and we have all learned throughout the years. In the early days of DFS, Cole would not carry massive ownership on this slate. In today’s days of DFS, Cole will be very popular tonight. Game log reactions are less sudden than they used to be. Yes, Cole’s last two starts have been poor. Yes, Cole has allowed twelve home runs in eight starts in 2020. However, the 22.6% HR/FB rate that he has allowed so far this year is almost double his career average. He still has a 32% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate this year. The velocity is fine. The stuff is still there. The home runs are simply a result of a little more hard contact, a small sample size, and some bad luck variance. Cole will be fine. The Orioles have one of the lowest team walk rates against RHP, and the Yankees need their ace to come up big after a loss on Friday. He’s my SP1 in all formats.
Cheap Leverage Stack For Large-Field GPPs
Yusei Kikuchi projects to be a high owned cheap pitching option on tonight’s slate, and rightfully so at his depressed salary against a strikeout-heavy Rangers lineup. While he’s vastly improved this season, he’s not necessarily known for consistency. The Texas stack is ridiculously dirt cheap with their 1-5 bats costing a mere $14.3k combined on DraftKings and it comprises three scarce positions of 2B, SS and C. At single digit ownership against the chalk SP2, the Rangers provide heavy leverage while allowing you to build a double-ace SP lineup with great one-off bats. High risk, high reward, so large-field GPP consideration only.
Other tagged players: Nick Solak, Jose Trevino
Too Much Lefty Power
Jake Arrieta has always had trouble with lefty power, and he continues to regress year after year with his strikeouts all the way down to 15.6% against lefties. The surface numbers for Michael Conforto have been up and down, but his underlying metrics are all outstanding with a 51% hard hit rate and 35% line drives against right-handed pitching this season. He is a strong play on all sites, but his FD salary stands out the most.
