DFS Alerts
Elite Stacking Options
The Dodgers ranked 4th in MLB in 2019 in wRC+, wOBA and ISO… and then they added Mookie Betts for 2020. They are deservedly expensive across the DFS sites, but they have the upside to break the slate. Cheap pitching options allow a path to fit the full stack in and not sacrifice too much in the rest of your lineup. Taijuan Walker’s results have been acceptable early in his return from more than a year off due to injury, but the underlying metrics tell a bit of a different story. He has a 5.15 XFIP and has allowed 41% Hard Hits. The Dodgers projected lineup has a .247 ISO and .364 wOBA against RH pitching since the start of 2019.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
The White Sox have a 19.3 K-BB% vs RHP this year
Casey Mize will make his major league debut against the White Sox on Wednesday and hopes to fare much better than yesterday’s pitching prospect for the Tigers. Mize was the number one overall pick two years ago and is now the second best prospect in the Detroit system (#14 overall) according to Fangraphs. Mize has thrown 78.2 innings above A ball with an 18 K-BB% at AA last year. It’s been suggested that the only thing keeping Mize from being the top overall pitching prospect in baseball this year was an unfavorable injury history. Players who are looking for some pitching upside, but don’t want to pay up for the top arms can consider this prospect tonight. He costs just $6.6K on FanDuel and will face just one batter with a strikeout rate below 22.5% against RHP since last season. In fact, the White Sox have a team 19.3 K-BB% vs RHP this year. There’s always the risk that the Tigers are too conservative with his workload or the White Sox get to him like they did Skubal last night, but this is an offense that is more proficient against LHP than RHP and the risk seems to be built into the price. If Mize lives up to expectations, don’t expect him to be this cheap for long.
Targeting Inexperience
Kyle Wright is a nice prospect and he will probably be a very good MLB pitcher someday. However, he has not gotten results early in his career posting a 5.33 SIERA and 6.07 XFIP. He has struggled to both sides of the plate but even more so to lefties allowing .447 wOBA and .227 ISO. Juan Soto is on fire with 5 HR in his last 7 games and is one of the top options on the slate. Wright’s control problems put the full stack in play; Trea Turner at the top of the order and Adam Eaton with an attractive price tag across the industry should be the the next guys in.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner The Pirates have a 53 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year
Aaron Civale struck out 18 of his first 48 batters with a 14.1 SwStr%, but just eight of 53 with a 7.8 SwStr% since and that includes just three Tigers last time out. That still leaves him with a healthy 22.7 K-BB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, 3.81 DRA and 3.05 xERA on the season, all of which are top end of the rotation stuff. He may not be that, but he should be good in a favorable matchup here. The Pirates have a stunning 53 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The lineup for the Pirates offers just one batters above an 86 wRC+ this year and Civale has held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA for his career. Additionally, a heavy workload for the bullpen in an extra-inning game yesterday may mean the Indians hang with Civale a little longer here, although he was already pushing fairly deep into games. Civale is the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.5K) with a strong shot at a Quality Start.
Mitch Garver (.341 ISO vs LHP since 2019) is still a cheap top of the order bat on FanDuel
Brett Anderson continues to generate lots of ground balls (68.4%) with few strikeouts (16.7%). His exit velocity has been between 88.8 and 89.6 each of the last four seasons. A 4.91 ERA sits well above a 4.02 SIERA (.333 BABIP, 33.3 HR/FB), but well below a 6.17 xERA. Somehow, 50% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity despite the 88.9 mph average. On the other side of this matchup, Mitch Garver has given players no reason to trust him this year (35 wRC+) and that’s the reason his price remains so low. However, the fact remains that he owns a .427 wOBA and .341 ISO against LHP since last season, while RHBs have a .332 wOBA against Anderson over the same span. Additionally, rostering Garver at $2.5K on FanDuel, creates an easier path to stacking him up with Nelson Cruz (.500 wOBA, .504 ISO vs LHP since 2019) right behind him for $4.2K more.
Ryan Castellani has a 94.3 mph average exit velocity
Ryan Castellani has struck out 10 of the 32 major league batters he’s faced with a 14.2 SwStr%, but will now have to face a real major league offense after the Mariners and Rangers. While nine of 18 batted balls have been on the ground, he’s averaged a 94.3 mph exit velocity. Castellani had a 7.9 K-BB% in 10 AAA starts last year. He’s likely in trouble against a contact prone Houston lineup. We don’t have any confident splits for Castellani yet, but RHBs have a .375 xwOBA with only one-third of their contact on the ground. Alex Bregman is already a dangerous bat against same-handed pitching (.386 wOBA, .250 ISO since 2019). Factor Coors into the equation and his potential is enormous tonight. Bregman costs $4.2K on FanDuel.
Juan Soto has a 425 wOBA & .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019
Kyle Wright has lasted a total of 15 innings over four starts. A -5.3 K-BB% is even worse than his opponent’s. However, unlike Fedde (2.55 ERA), Wright has paid for it with a matching 7.20 ERA and SIERA. With those peripherals, an 85.8 mph aEV hardly matters, still resulting in a board worst 8.36 xERA. Considering LHBs have a .447 wOBA and .227 ISO against Wright since last season, Juan Soto (.425 wOBA, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has to be considered one of the top overall bats on the slate and likely worth his high cost ($4.8K on FanDuel). Soto has been tearing the cover off the ball in 2020 with a 266 wRC+ and should be in a position to do some more damage here with the Braves slightly above 5.5 implied runs.
Erick Fedde (LHBs .358 wOBA since 2019) has a -5 K-BB% this year
Erick Fedde has an atrocious -5.0 K-BB% through 17.2 innings, but a 2.55 ERA that’s half his estimators due to a .250 BABIP and 86.8 LOB%. Favorably, he has a 58.5 GB% that’s allowed him to generate just 4.5% Barrels/BBE, but his 6.86 xERA is worst of them all. Despite missing key top of the lineup bats, the Braves should still some damage here and Freddie Freeman may be the top available bat on the slate. He has a .416 wOBA and .282 ISO against RHP since last season, while Fedde has been punished for a .358 wOBA with the platoon disadvantage over the same span. However, considering Fedde’s peripherals and ground ball rate, this sets up as a better stacking opportunity than it is for an isolated bat. Another positive factor once Fedde leaves the game (usually after twice through the order) is that the Washington pen has been worked hard and is struggling in this series.
The Affordable Bat In The Obvious Spot
There is nothing sneaky about Houston tonight going into Coors Field, but the pricing is going to make it tough to force too many Astros bats in. Other than Alex Bregman, most of the Astros fall into a similar range of upside skills. The only thing holding Kyle Tucker back from his teammates is a higher strikeout rate, but with speed and power to spare, I’m banking on regression from Ryan Castellani leading to these Houston bats seeing plenty of pitches to hit.
Salary, Salary, Salary
We’ve got ace pitchers, and we’ve got the top few offenses priced way up on this slate. At some point, salary will become a crucial factor, and I’m hunting for bats who are good plays regardless of their price. That brings me to Tommy La Stella, who is quietly displaying elite skills this season. He has twice as many walks as strikeouts while also piling up a 46% hard hit rate. He typically finds himeslf up near the top of this lineup hitting ahead of Trout and Rendon which adds to his upside with his on-base skills.
Targeting a Weak Pitching Staff
The Boston Red Sox are off to a horrid start in 2020 thanks mainly to their struggles on the mound. Tonight they send Zack Godley to the bump against a powerful Phillies offense. Godley has been brutal since the start of 2019 posting a 4.54 SIERA, 5.43 XFIP and allowing power to both sides of the plate (.220 ISO vs LHB, .194 ISO vs RHB.) Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto are the top options as they have both posted an ISO north of .220 against RH pitching. Rhys Hoskins has yet to hit a HR in 2020 but that could certainly change tonight in Fenway.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius A Huge Park Upgrade
The Rays square off against the Yankees in the Bronx tonight, and I am targeting power lefties against Masahiro Tananka. Austin Meadows and his .276 ISO and .395 wOBA against RH pitching, and Brandon Lowe with his .265 ISO and .373 wOBA are the top options. Ji-Man Choi also makes for an incredible value option to add in to your stack. Tanaka has allowed a .207 ISO to LH hitters since the start of 2019 vs only a .144 ISO to RH hitters.
Other tagged players: Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi Tarik Skubal is a highly regarded prospect (48 K% at AA)
Tarik Skubal is the fifth ranked prospect in the Detroit system with a 50 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. He’s pitched just 42.1 innings above A ball, but struck out 48.2% of the batters he faced at AA! The Tigers think the 23 year-old prospect is ready and he should at least find some strikeouts in the lineup he faces in his debut. In fact, only three batters in the confirmed White Sox lineup are below a 26 K% vs LHP since last season. There’s always the risk that the Tigers go extra conservative on his workload, but Skubal has some upside in this spot for just $6K on FanDuel, when many players may not even know who he is.
Robinson Cano has a team high 92.1 mph exit velocity (211 wRC+)
Humberto Mejia threw 2.1 innings 10 days ago, striking out six of 11 Mets in his first action above A ball. He generated a 13.4 SwStr%, walked two and allowed a HR. None of his three batted balls were on the ground. A well-balanced Mets lineup will face a crumbling pen (6.18 FIP, 7.3 K-BB%), which they punished last night. Robinson Cano has been on fire and hitting everything hard, leading the team with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity this year (211 wRC+). He costs just $2.9K on FanDuel and has a .341 wOBA with a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. J.D. Davis (.373 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is $100 cheaper. Make sure to include both in your Mets stacks tonight.
Cheap leadoff bat with a .344 wOBA & .212 ISO vs RHP since 2019
Zach Eflin has been inconsistent throughout his career, so it’s tough to evaluate him on anything he’s done through just two starts this year. The pitch mix is a bit different. He’s throwing his sinker more than 50% of the time now (50% ground ball rate in 2020), while cutting his sliders in half and his four seam usage more than in half. That doesn’t sound like the recipe for increased strikeouts despite striking out 15 of 43. It’s hard to believe this will last, considering his career numbers (18 K%). The Red Sox have just an 87 wRC+ and 19 K-BB% vs RHP, though they still produce a lineup with a history of hitting RHP well. One of Eflin’s biggest issues last season was his platoon split. LHBs have punished him for a .374 wOBA and .254 ISO since the start of 2019. That may make Alex Verdugo in the leadoff spot one of the top values on the board. For just $2.7K on FanDuel, players get a .344 wOBA and .212 ISO vs RHP since last year.